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Tuesday, October 07, 2008

SNY: Berg: Mets should follow postseason teams’ model for bullpen

And that Jenks is some model…

The Mets may not have a Papelbon coming up the pike, but they might consider fishing for someone like J.J. Putz of the Mariners, who is coming off an injury-marred, mediocre season by his standards but was a dominant closer in 2006 and 2007. Bobby Howry, Brandon Lyon and Juan Rincon are all coming off uninspiring seasons but all have several good ones in their past and could be worth a shot. Or they could scour the Japanese market for a low-cost contributor like Okajima or Saito. Hard-throwing youngsters Eddie Kunz and Bobby Parnell should get a look as well.

That’s not to say any or all of these guys is the answer for the 2009 Mets or that even one of them should be on the team’s Opening Day roster. I mean merely to suggest that the seemingly obvious solution—K-Rod—might not be the most efficient one. If the Mets can grow and patch together a bullpen like the Red Sox, Rays, Phillies and Dodgers did, they can save their money for a bat to put games out of reach long before the bullpen is needed.

Repoz Posted: October 07, 2008 at 04:34 PM | 29 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralNY Mets

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   1. Bob "Jugement" Dernier Posted: October 07, 2008 at 04:47 PM (#2973744)
i.e., "good."
   2. JJ1986 Posted: October 07, 2008 at 04:54 PM (#2973751)
I really don't want K-Rod on the Mets, but that's because I dislike him. They need to get something better than the Lyons, Rincons and Howrys of the world. Spending money on mediocrities hoping to get their best years again is how you end up with Schoeneweis and Mota. I'd be heavily in favor of signing Brian Fuentes and if they could trade for Putz that would be great. I'd also try and get some failed starters and convert them. Or find guys who dominated the minors, but havent' gotten a chance.
   3. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 07, 2008 at 05:02 PM (#2973766)
Or find guys who dominated the minors, but havent' gotten a chance

If I am the Mets, I draft the hell out of some rule V guys. draft like 40 of them.
   4. Robert in Redondo Posted: October 07, 2008 at 05:03 PM (#2973768)
You see that thing they do where they have a bunch of good pitchers available to pitch at the end of games? Do that.
   5. aleskel Posted: October 07, 2008 at 05:03 PM (#2973769)
I was thinking the Yankees and Mets would make good trading partners - the Yankees have a bunch of promising bullpen pieces to play with, they could probably give up a Veras or a Coke for mid-level prospects.
   6. JJ1986 Posted: October 07, 2008 at 05:24 PM (#2973796)
I guess the Mets could offer the Yankees Nick Evans. He's superfluous on the major league team if they resign Tatis and he's not ever going to be special. For the Yankees, he'd be a righty who could spell Matsui or Damon since they're sure to get bruised during the season. Behind that, there's not much until you get to A ball. Unless the Yankees want Parnell, but he's not very good.
   7. Doris from Rego Park Posted: October 07, 2008 at 05:24 PM (#2973797)
Draft more college relievers?
   8. Sam M. Posted: October 07, 2008 at 05:51 PM (#2973828)
Ah, college relievers.

So far, that's gotten them the quite good, but quite limited, Joe Smith. Then you've got the wonder twins of the Mets' infamous 2007 draft, Eddie Kunz, who looked very little like a prospect in his short stay in New York this summer, and the even less promising Brant Rustich, who despite being a college draftee hasn't gotten above Savannah and has battled injury problems.

I suspect the repair job for the Mets' pen is going to require Omar to go to an "all of the above" type of approach. He's going to have to acquire somebody for the traditional CLOSER role to anchor the thing. He's going to have to bring in some guys you'd think of us as reclamation projects -- but he can't really count on them, because of the huge question marks they'd represent and the skepticism with which they'd be met in the tabloids, in the clubhouse, and in the fanbase. They can be brought in to supplement the overall project, but they can't BE the project. And he can have a couple of kids from the farm (Parnell, maybe Kunz) in there to fight for a role. Maybe a Rule 5 draftee -- why not? But there better be two guys with strong & long track records of success to fill major roles that will be seen as answers, the type of answers he did NOT come up with a year ago.

Honestly, to me the biggest and best reason to fill the bullpen, even if you have to overpay to acquire what you need, is to prevent the pressure from building to do something really stupid. You've basically seen two lines of thought expressed in the media about what the Mets should do this winter. The first is "It's The Bulllpen, Stupid." The thinking there is that the problem that has kept them out of the last two post-seasons has been obvious. Fix it, and you're good to go. The second is "Break Up the Core." That idea is that there is something deeper, something rotten wrong with the Wright/Reyes/Beltran core of the team -- something intangible leadershipy -- that means you should trade one of them and start over in some fundamental way. Which would almost certainly be dumb as hell, and a lot more likely to go badly wrong than just fixing the damned bullpen and going from there.

Keep it simple. Get a couple of really reliable relief pitchers, combine that with bringing in a bunch of potentially solid guys from whom you find two more in the spring, add in whomever from among the holdovers makes sense (depends on who you add -- lefty? righty?), and your pen is repaired enough to win. And you haven't trusted Omar to make a blockbuster deal involving Carlos Beltran that has (maybe) a 25% chance of helping the team, a 25% chance of being a wash, and a 50% chance of killing the team.
   9. Sam M. Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:06 PM (#2973838)
By the way, in BA's Top 20 Prospects for the EL, this is where the Mets' Binghamton guys ranked:

7) F-Mart
13) Daniel Murphy
18) Jon Niese

These rankings -- with which I differ in one case in particular -- should come as no surprise.

The scouting report on F-Mart had this to say, in part:

He played his second season in the EL as a teenager, hit for average and did a better job of making use of his raw power. He was more consistent, particularly in center field . . . . Still, some managers and scouts have their doubts. One AL scout called him a below-average runner with a tweener profile, lacking the impact bat for an outfield corner.


Sounds like he still has to answer some questions, at least in some folks' eyes.

They really like Murphy with the bat in his hand:

Scouts agree with the shorthand assessment of Murphy's Binghamton manager, Mako Oliveras: "He's a grinder who can hit." Murphy has hit at every level, a trend that continued in the EL and again after his big league promotion. He does it with a polished gameplan and excellent two-strike approach. He has advanced offensive instincts that also translate onto the basepaths, where his average speed plays up, and his selectivity gives him average power. . . .He's less capable defensively . . . . Scouts don't consider him capable of handling second base consistently, but he should continue to hit enough to fit in left field for New York long-term.


Boy, oh boy. SO much depends for that kid on whether he can play second passably. If that report is accurate about his bat -- that is, if he can "continue to hit enough to fit in left field" -- then what is his ceiling as a second baseman? It's Jeff Kent (well, a comparable player, anyway -- less power, but a higher average and OBP in a typical season). Well, I think he can hit like a left fielder. The second base part remains to be seen. Obviously, I have to think that if BA thought he could handle that position, they'd have him a lot higher than # 13 in the EL . . . . Cross your fingers.
   10. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: October 07, 2008 at 08:49 PM (#2973928)
I'd trade Heilman for Dotel and use the latter as a closer. I'd sign a reliever or two (Juan Cruz would be nice) and not worry too much about the draft picks because they are already very likely to give their first rounder to sign a big-name free agent starters. Heck, they might sign two big name starters.

A guy who could help in the bullpen next season is Dillon Gee. His stuff isn't special but he throws strikes. I can live with that.
   11. Raskolnikov Posted: October 07, 2008 at 11:27 PM (#2974000)
My preference list for closer:

1. Fujikawa (Hanshin Tigers) - in the remote chance they would post him. I would offer a bajillion dollars.

2. Hong Chih Kuo - in the remote chance the Dodgers would trade him.

3. John Smoltz - in the remote chance he can still throw in the mid 90s for 40+ pitches.
   12. Hey, it's what Johan uses (Matt) Posted: October 07, 2008 at 11:59 PM (#2974021)
Murphy is playing 2B tonight in his first Arizona Fall League game. No errors through six, 1-for-2 with a RBI.
   13. Anthropophagus Mets Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:00 AM (#2974023)
Hong Chih Kuo - in the remote chance the Dodgers would trade him.

Love the idea. That guy is nasty. He could definitely close for the Mets.
   14. HowardMegdal Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:22 AM (#2974033)
Murphy is playing 2B tonight in his first Arizona Fall League game. No errors through six, 1-for-2 with a RBI.

I remember last year, you could stream live video of AFL games- can you get that this year?
   15. akrasian Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:40 AM (#2974044)
2. Hong Chih Kuo - in the remote chance the Dodgers would trade him.


If the Dodgers traded him, it would be because they had no faith in his staying healthy, AND were offered something nice in return. He is paid a pittance, no reason to trade him on the chance he gets injured again, especially since he showed what everybody who has followed Kuo knew all along - when healthy, he is incredible. Seriously, the Dodgers liked him so much they started him out in A+ level at age 18 after signing him - and he struck out 7 in his first 3 inning appearance - at which point, he blew out his elbow. He's thrown 320 or so pro innings because of the injuries, but NOBODY wants to let him go, because he is a once in a generation talent who is raw because of his inexperience. Torre overworked him this year, because he was just so good - but the Dodgers know he is great. So if the Mets want him, they need to offer something the Dodgers actually need, AND the Dodgers have to have concerns about when TJ #3 will happen.
   16. 1k5v3L Posted: October 08, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2974052)
Isn't this the seventh or tenth article here that argues the Mets need to fix the bullpen in the offseason?
What's the over/under articles on "Mets must fix bullpen" on BTF this winter? I'll go with 57.
   17. Hey, it's what Johan uses (Matt) Posted: October 08, 2008 at 01:21 AM (#2974057)
I remember last year, you could stream live video of AFL games- can you get that this year?

Not sure. But he finishes 2-for-4 without an error. Kunz pitched the ninth, striking out two while allowing a hit and walk.
   18. Raskolnikov Posted: October 08, 2008 at 01:34 AM (#2974061)
I'm just thrilled that the Mets are going to give this (Murphy at 2B) a shot. I think Omar (and hopefully, Manuel) is more open-minded than often given credit for.
   19. 1k5v3L Posted: October 08, 2008 at 01:36 AM (#2974063)
Not a snark, just an honest question: are the Mets still considering their 2008 first round pick their 2bman of the future?
   20. Benji Posted: October 08, 2008 at 01:42 AM (#2974064)
No Howry, thank you. Not only does he suck, but he's a right-wing #########. If we want that, give Johnny Franco a call. He'll suck just as bad.
   21. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: October 08, 2008 at 01:59 AM (#2974071)
Isn't this the seventh or tenth article here that argues the Mets need to fix the bullpen in the offseason? What's the over/under articles on "Mets must fix bullpen" on BTF this winter? I'll go with 57.
Don't you have some thread to work on, involving setting up the D'backs playoff rotation? Oh...
   22. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: October 08, 2008 at 02:09 AM (#2974077)
are the Mets still considering their 2008 first round pick their 2bman of the future?

Ike Davis might struggle defensively at second :) He hits like one though!!
   23. Anthropophagus Mets Posted: October 08, 2008 at 02:30 AM (#2974082)
Not a snark, just an honest question: are the Mets still considering their 2008 first round pick their 2bman of the future?

Reese Havens? There was talk about moving him to catcher. Maybe that talk becomes more serious if Murphy shows he can hack it.
   24. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: October 08, 2008 at 03:33 AM (#2974108)
2. Hong Chih Kuo - in the remote chance the Dodgers would trade him.

Mr. Koo, part Duox?
   25. Jeff K. Posted: October 08, 2008 at 08:59 AM (#2974158)
Isn't this the seventh or tenth article here that argues the Mets need to fix the bullpen in the offseason?
What's the over/under articles on "Mets must fix bullpen" on BTF this winter? I'll go with 57.


Why stop there, lev?

O/U on number of articles about relievers that Mets fans will turn into threads about the Mets fixing their bullpen? Opening line is 42.

O/U on number of completely unrelated articles that Mets fans will turn into threads about the Mets fixing their bullpen? Opening line is 156.

O/U on number of Mets fans ######## in February that they didn't fix their bullpen? Opening line is at "All of them minus Why and Rob Base, 'cause they dead"
   26. Sam M. Posted: October 08, 2008 at 09:11 AM (#2974164)
I'm just thrilled that the Mets are going to give this (Murphy at 2B) a shot. I think Omar (and hopefully, Manuel) is more open-minded than often given credit for.

I am, too. As for Omar's open-mindedness, there is evidence for that. What it boils down to is you have to believe that Omar is more than willing to give young players a shot, but he has been unable to do so since Wright and Reyes -- whom the prior regime gave full-time jobs to, not Omar -- because the system simply hasn't produced any players worth giving any real extended playing time to. That argument has the virtue of being true, and while it does give hope that the Mets will give a shot to a kid like Daniel Murphy, it is (unfortunately) a hell of an indictment of their development of young players since the Minaya regime has been in place.

There are two real exceptions to this record: Mike Pelfrey in the rotation, and Joe Smith in the bullpen. Don't give me Argenis Reyes or IPOR or guys like that, whom they've turned to in desperation when their various Proven Veteran™ solutions didn't work or got hurt. Don't even cite Daniel Murphy himself last year, who was just another example of that same trend -- turn to a kid from the system as a last resort, when it seemed like the entire OF other than Beltran was on the DL. The two young guys they've actually decided were good enough, and gave jobs to as a first resort at some point in the last few years, were Pelfrey and Smith, both coming out of spring training in 2007.

There are NO position player exceptions . . . yet. Daniel Murphy might prove to be the first, whether it is at second base or as an outfielder, next spring. Let's hope so. IMHO, he is more than qualified to be a regular for the Mets next season. If he doesn't get that chance, I will never again even entertain the excuse that they just haven't had a young kid ready and good enough to assume a job. They've got one now.
   27. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 08, 2008 at 09:27 AM (#2974177)
I think that Mets fans are, by and large, spoiled. The Mets' top 5 relievers on their 2008 B-R page (Wagner, Feliciano, Smith, Heilman, and Schoeneweis) had a collective ERA of 3.83, and the pen as a whole had a 4.27. That's not all that bad.

I know that Wagner's injury necessitates at least one move, but the collective freaking out is kind of unseemly. You aren't the '07 Rays, here.
   28. Sam M. Posted: October 08, 2008 at 09:42 AM (#2974187)
The Mets' top 5 relievers on their 2008 B-R page (Wagner, Feliciano, Smith, Heilman, and Schoeneweis) had a collective ERA of 3.83, and the pen as a whole had a 4.27. That's not all that bad.

Wow, way to mislead with numbers there, Vlad. The underlying problem is that two of those guys -- Smith and Schoeneweis -- are utterly useless when they don't have the platoon advantage. Check their splits. Smith is a ROOGY and Show is a LOOGY. And Feliciano, who in the past has been effective regardless of splits, was a total LOOGY in 2008. That rendered Randolph and then Manuel virtually helpless in actually using the bullpen, because the guys who were effective were too limited, and the guys who weren't limited (Sanchez and Heilman) sucked, and the guy who wasn't limited or awful (Wagner) blew out his elbow.

The reason they need to revamp the pen is because there is just no one there to be a closer (that's one need). There's no one versatile enough to face both lefties and righties, and effective enough to be counted on, to handle the set-up role. Maybe Feliciano can handle it; his 2008 numbers against righties are a small sample, obviously. Maybe Heilman will recover from his debacle -- he apparently had knee issues, and an off-season recovering can help. Sanchez? Who knows. But counting on that threesome again would be dicey at best, suicidal at worst. So that's two needs. And they just have too many specialists, if you count Feliciano, Schoeneweis and Smith all as platoon pitchers. You can't carry that many guys who are SO ineffective against the other side. It's a mess, and it needs to be rebuilt.

Looking at the overall pen ERA is grossly misleading, to say the least.
   29. 1k5v3L Posted: October 08, 2008 at 10:06 AM (#2974210)
Mr. Koo, part Duox?
He'll probably hit a couple of home runs off Randy Johnson.
Reese Havens? There was talk about moving him to catcher. Maybe that talk becomes more serious if Murphy shows he can hack it.
Yes, him. I'm looking for minor league sleepers for my NL only keeper league, and was wondering if he warrants a pick up. [Checks stats] Havens no.
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