Thole is killing the VWL, but the Mets don't think his defense is good enough.

Hello, Rod Barajas.

Thole should be their starter next year. Or at least on the team.

Thole will start the season in AAA to work on his defense and push out his arbitration date a year.

Thole isn't really that good, is he? He's sort of like the old Luis Castillo of catchers. Or the next Gregg Zaun.

I mean, I'd prefer him to Rod Barajas.

Thole isn't really that good, is he?

No, he's really not. All accounts are his defense still needs a lot of work, and his bat shows very little power. My expectation is that at the major league level pitchers will be able to throw him strikes and not get hurt, so they will, thus nullifying (or at least making less useful) his strong plate discipline. There's potential if the defense improves, but right now he's nothing to get seriously excited about. The fact that he might, in fact, be the best catcher they have available is FAR more of a commentary on Santos and Schneider than it is a positive indication of what Thole has to offer for 2009.

Schneider might be another realistic comparison. He'll take a walk when they let him, which they almost never do, because they have no respect for his hitting. I am always suspicious of the minor league high-walk low-everythingelse guys.

Thole should be their starter next year. Or at least on the team.

Seems to be if you aren't starting him, there's a good case to be made he belongs in Triple-A, playing every day.

The Mets have a similar opportunity in 2010 with Josh Thole, Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Jonathon Niese and Bobby Parnell.

Anyway, I agree on two out of five. Parnell in the pen, Niese in the rotation. Davis is a maybe, in mid-season depending on what he does early at Buffalo. F-Mart ain't ready, and Thole needs work. Heck, a team at Buffalo built around Davis, F-Mart and Thole has a chance to actually be decent. Wouldn't that be a kick in the head?

You guys are being ridiculously hard on Thole. All he had was a small sample size, but in 59 PA he was .321/.356/.752. He had 3 passed balls in 127 innings.

I'm not saying he's the second coming of Mike Piazza; he may over a full season get figured out. But he's 22, he played well in his time in the bigs and all anyone can do is tut-tut and wave your hands like you're trying to get dandruff off your sleeves. What the #### are you expecting, exactly? Have you noticed that catcher isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse of a position?

I don't mean to rant, but the season was bleak enough and we had enough prospects play like crap for you to act like one who was better than league average is some kind of shitty player who isn't worth your time.

All he had was a small sample size, but in 59 PA he was .321/.356/.752.

That's great, obviously. But the most important number in that sentence is 59, as you well know, Lassus. And if that isn't the most important number, then the most important one is .356, the slugging average. It confirms the weakness in his offensive game.

Far more important than anything in his major league numbers was Thole's performance at Binghamton, where he was .328/.395/.422, for an OPS of .816. He hit one home run, in a very positive hitting environment. He's young, and at least some semblance of power may still come. But if it doesn't, it is very unlikely he'll hit enough in the majors to be a starting catcher unless he becomes a plus defender. I'm more than happy to give him time to do that -- which means he should be in the minors next year working on that, and hopefully getting stronger. I see the potential, and I hover in the "hopeful" range. I'm just a long way from "excited" based on everything I know.

And if that isn't the most important number, then the most important one is .356, the slugging average.

I can accept all this, but stick with the "what are you expecting" statement. What was the NL catcher slugging average for 2009? I'm frustrated that I'm too damned stupid to call up that figure on baseball reference, so if you can, please let the morans know how as well.

Lack of power is a problem, certainly. If he can't hit ANY home runs, he better damn well be a doubles machine, I realize this.

What was the NL catcher slugging average for 2009?

For 2009, MLB catchers hit a collective .254/.321/.396, for a magnificent OPS of 0.717 (91 OPS+).

Howard, in the first paragraph of the excerpt, I think you'll want "plug every hole", not "hold"

For 2009, MLB catchers hit a collective .254/.321/.396, for a magnificent OPS of 0.717 (91 OPS+).

Thanks Ryan, my line for Thole should have read .321/.356/.396 with an OPS of .752 (101 OPS+)

I can accept all this, but stick with the "what are you expedcting" statement.

If he isn't going to be an offensive powerhouse, and the reports on his defense are that he needs work (which acknowledges he is very raw and inexperienced behind the plate, so it is too soon to reach definite conclusions), then what I expect is to reserve judgment. He's shown some positives and given reason to feel he's a prospect, but not one that you jump all the way to the majors off the season he just had. Not one I'd avoid filling the position if the opportunity arose because Josh Thole can't be blocked. Not one I think is a cornerstone we're going to build around. He's a guy I think can, if things break right, make a contribution.

I can accept all this, but stick with the "what are you expecting" statement. What was the NL catcher slugging average for 2009? I'm frustrated that I'm too damned stupid to call up that figure on baseball reference, so if you can, please let the morans know how as well.

go to standings, go to batting, then league splits and scroll down for each of the positions. (not sure where Ryan got the numbers, must have rounded differently as bb-ref splits has it .255 .325 .385 .710 and a 92 ops+ ---nevermind, these are the NL numbers. )

(not sure where Ryan got the numbers, must have rounded differently as bb-ref splits has it .255 .325 .385 .710 and a 92 ops+ ---nevermind, these are the NL numbers. )

I grabbed MLB numbers.

I grabbed MLB numbers.

I gathered that as I was writing it down, but figured might as well put it out there as it was. (the nevermind part was when I figured it out)

He's a guy I think can, if things break right, make a contribution.

This is probably the point of contention. I think he's been a little better than "if things break right". I think if he improves normally for a 22-year-old catcher, he'll be above league-average. The catcher position across the league is weak and home-growing a catcher that's above league average leaves you money to pick up an FA in a position with greater offensive depth. Would I take Montero over him, yes; would I be concerned about not trading for McCann because OMG WHAT ABOUT THOLE, no.

Also, I could be wrong, and all that remains to be seen. I just think calling him a good catching prospect is more accurate than your "no, he's not that good" judgment.

Not one I'd avoid filling the position if the opportunity arose because Josh Thole can't be blocked.

But Sam, it isn't a binary choice. Who are you filling it with, how much is he making, and what are the chances he puts up a better line than Thole?

I agree with you on Martinez, strongly disagree on Davis. assuming you don't want to block Davis, you aren't getting Adam LaRoche. Who are you getting at 1B who is likely to put up better numbers than Davis, how much will he cost, and how does that prevent you from doing other things?

But I think the Davis question is a more open one. I just don't see how you waste money on the crap catching available on the free agent market with Thole already in your organization.

Lassus, exactly- if it's about adding Montero, that's different. If it's about adding Bengie Molina...

But Sam, it isn't a binary choice. Who are you filling it with, how much is he making, and what are the chances he puts up a better line than Thole?

Well, of course. Having that information -- an actual decision and choice to be made -- makes the decision concrete. All we can talk about here is the abstract proposition, and even at that only the Thole side of the equation. And as I see it, he's a guy who is not that strong a prospect that I would be planning the organizational future around him. He probably is good enough that I might make filling that hole a lower priority than other holes. Which other holes? Well, I think more highly of our prospects at 2B (Havens) that I'd sure as hell be more averse to blocking them than I would to blocking Josh Thole. Same with Davis at 1B, and I am at least somewhat skeptical about Davis, too.

I agree with you on Martinez, strongly disagree on Davis. assuming you don't want to block Davis, you aren't getting Adam LaRoche. Who are you getting at 1B who is likely to put up better numbers than Davis, how much will he cost, and how does that prevent you from doing other things?

I think it is depressingly obvious that Ike Davis is better off getting more seasoning. He is just the kind of hitter who I think is likely to get obliterated in the majors at this stage of his development -- the strikeouts will just swallow him live. And you can't (or shouldn't) bring up a prospect like that just to platoon him. The long-term future of the team is best served by leaving him in Buffalo for his own development. I don't care if we have to go with a Murphy/Evans platoon, or play the ghost of Ed Kranepool. But hey, if that silly rumor of a three-way deal that would bring us Overbay for Castillo has any truth to it, I'd do that in a nanosecond. Overbay is a one-year rental while Davis gets seasoning. Pefect. And we get rid of Castillo. Talk about addition by subtraction. Perfect squared.

Just talking about Overbay makes me sad about Delgado's year. But I agree, if that three-way works out I wouldn't argue.

The only way that 3-way deal will work out is if the Cubs send about $15M along with Bradley to the Jays.

Otherwise the Jays are just swapping a tolerable contract for a terrible contract. Considering their recent emphasis on cost controls, it doesn't seem likely that they'd do this deal.

To what you said Sam, agree that I'd rather a one-year solution to give Davis more time, assuming if he is tearing up Triple-A you can bring him up. In other words, you'd move Daniel Murphy if he was posting a .950 OPS at Triple-A. Not LaRoche signed to a three-year deal.

But with Thole? Who among the free agents would you prefer in 2010 to Thole?

Afraid the reporting on this suggests Toronto isn't into the deal. Makes sense, of course, but trades have happened despite rational thought, and I was hoping this would, too. Overbay/Evans would be a fine platoon and placeholder for Ike.

And as I see it, he's a guy who is not that strong a prospect that I would be planning the organizational future around him. He probably is good enough that I might make filling that hole a lower priority than other holes.

I think this is nicely phrased.

Hey, I'm glad Thole is in the organization. And even if Gregg Zaun is his ceiling, that makes him a solid player. But I think that planning 2010 around him is asking for disaster. What do his MLEs look like?

Afraid the reporting on this suggests Toronto isn't into the deal.

Because, like the Snyder deal that was recently reported, it doesn't make much sense from Toronto's point of view.

Afraid the reporting on this suggests Toronto isn't into the deal. Makes sense, of course, but trades have happened despite rational thought, and I was hoping this would, too.

Could be Toronto is playing hard to get knowing the Cubs are desperate to move Bradley. They may sit tight and wait for the Cubs to be willing to pay some of the freight, if/when they realize nobody else is willing to even consider taking him. In which case, the deal could come down to whether the Mets are willing to kick in some portion of that (which would be portrayed as paying some of the cost of Castillo, I assume). Maybe the Cubs send the Jays $6M or something, and the Mets kick in $3M.

Or the Jays may have no interest whatsoever. Who the hell knows?

Because, like the Snyder deal that was recently reported, it doesn't make much sense from Toronto's point of view.

I intimated as much on MLBTR. Still, like I said, trades have happened despite rational thought. But I can totally see it for the Mets, kind of see it for the Cubs, and not at all see it for Toronto. Bradley slots into DH role- why not use Overbay there, who slugged 70 points higher in 2009, and isn't insane?

But I think that planning 2010 around him is asking for disaster.

I'll ask the same question that Howard did, then. Whom are you planning your 2010 Mets catching position around, exactly?

I'll ask the same question that Howard did, then. Whom are you planning your 2010 Mets catching position around, exactly?

Yeah! Inquiring minds want to know!

I have no problems with Thole starting the season as the everyday catcher. The way a lot of you guys are talking, it seems that you don't think the Mets have a shot unless they add 5 or 6 above average players. That's not going to happen so the Mets might as well give Thole a chance to play everyday and see what they have. I also don't think he needs to go to AAA because he is pretty much a finished product offensively. I really didn't see that much wrong with him defensively either. And more importantly, the Mets could always start the season with him and send him down if he is struggling. Also, a slightly below average player at making the minimum is a valuable commodity, IMO, and I have no problem with being a reasonable expectation of Thole. That is something to get a little excited about.


Honestly, Lassus is pretty much the only Met fan here that isn't bringing me down.

Well, I'll say this. The Mets finished 2nd in the NL in walks given up by their pitchers in 2009. Only the Nats gave up more. In 2008, they were 3rd worst; in 2007, 5th. That is what is known as a trend, and it ain't good. I'd put Ben Baumer to work looking for any evidence he can find that there is a discernible influence of catchers on the ability of pitchers to throw some damn strikes and consistently get ahead of hitters. If he can find something -- anything -- indicating there is an available catcher with a skill in this regard, I would acquire him. And I would make working with our pitchers on throwing strikes his highest priority by far. Maybe only. If some of the young pitchers -- Pelfrey, Niese -- can improve in this respect even marginally, that catcher's year will have been well-spent when it comes to the future of the franchise, whatever the hell he hits.

Double-post.

I couldn't agree more with Sam's post in 34 and I think the Mets need to figure out what the heck the Twins are doing in that regard because that is one franchise that knows how to develop pitchers that throw strikes.

Mets & catching:

No way do you go into 2010 with Thole as the starter. There's a very good chance he totally craters ... and then, if you're lucky, you've got Santos backed up by god knows what back there all year.

There are a number of perfectly meh Cs available. See what the DBacks want for Snyder (and how much money they're willing to cover). Torrealba's out there. You can probably get John Buck from KC for very little. Pick up one of Texas' failed Cs. Barajas, Hernandez, Olivo. They're all pretty cheap, most/all will come on a 1-year contract, none of them do you hesitate to push aside if Thole steps up his game. You just want to make sure you don't embarrass yourselves behind the plate.

The point that folks seem to be overlooking is ... everybody seems agreed that Thole is not ready defensively. Teams simply won't play average-hitting Cs who aren't ready defensively (and it's far from clear Thole will be an average-hitting C). I'd be surprised if there was a single person in all of baseball who thinks Thole is ready for an ML starting job (if the opinion on his defense are widespread).

And I really can't imagine any reason a Mets fan would think Thole as the starter in the majors in 2010 would be the preferred outcome. I can see it as the "we can live with it if we have to" option but not the preferred one. Aren't you guys tired of rushing prospects who haven't established themselves in the minors yet?

Aren't you guys tired of rushing prospects who haven't established themselves in the minors yet?

The Mets don't really do that. They are progressive in their promotion from one minor league level to another but not up to the major league level.

Walt does make sense though.

There's a very good chance he totally craters

This is what I don't get. Why is there a very good chance vs. the same chance everyone has of cratering, or the chance someone who did poorly when they were called up has of cratering? Point to the reason behind the the very good chance.

Also, if he's hit so far both in the minors and the majors as an average catcher and better, how is it far from clear he will be an average-hitting catcher?


I get the arguments against, and Walt's make more sense than most. I just don't see the hand-wringing. -shrug-

Omir Santos has no minor league track record, put up a .250/.290/.367 in the second half, and we're worried about Thole cratering?

I have no problem with Thole as starter next year. It does make sense to have a serviceable veteran backup who can step into the starting position if Thole struggles. But Thole could be ready, so why not just give him a shot?

That Overbay trade is too lopsided towards the Mets to be realistic.

The Mets finished 2nd in the NL in walks given up by their pitchers in 2009. Only the Nats gave up more. In 2008, they were 3rd worst; in 2007, 5th.

In 2007, the main catchers were Paul LoDuca, Ramon Castro and Mike DiFelice. In 2009, the main catchers were Omir Santos and Brian Schneider.

It ain't the catchers.

As for the reasons I can't expect Josh Thole to hit like a league-average catcher, color me unconvinced. As for defense, he threw out 2 of 6 runners. Mets pitchers allowed a .752 OPS in Thole starts, .759 overall.

Color me unconvinced all around. Thole should be the starter. If there were an elite long-term solution out there, I'd feel differently. But I like Thole's chances to outhit anyone they're going to bring in, or at the very least hang with that person performance-wise, and Thole isn't going to cost a lot of money. There's also the decent chance 2010 in the big leagues is enormously good for his development.

Use the resources elsewhere.

The Mets finished 2nd in the NL in walks given up by their pitchers in 2009. Only the Nats gave up more. In 2008, they were 3rd worst; in 2007, 5th.

The key to this problem may not be so much finding a new catcher as it is finding something for Oliver Perez to do that doesn't involve pitching for the Mets.

The key to this problem may not be so much finding a new catcher as it is finding something for Oliver Perez to do that doesn't involve pitching for the Mets.

Oliver isn't very good at throwing strikes but neither is John Maine which means it's unlikely the Mets are going to improve in that regard next season.

I'll ask the same question that Howard did, then. Whom are you planning your 2010 Mets catching position around, exactly?

Yeah! Inquiring minds want to know!

I don't know. Haven't thought that far ahead.

Whenever Dan posts the ZIPS projections for the Mets, Thole is going to come in at something like .270/.330/.340. Couple that with major defensive question marks and the usual caveats for rookies, and IMO you are looking at Brian Schneider like production in a best case scenario. I haven't solidified Plan B yet. I just know that Plan A probably won't work.

I don't think hand-wringing is right. I'm not getting bent out of shape over this. I liked your dandruff-brushing image more. My predictions for Thole do have something to do with the disappointment of the last season, capped by the worst case scenario world series. Reading the last few threads on the Mets have produced a real sense of ennui for me: the same damn reports on Fernando's health, the random Latino prospects that look incredible at age 18 and then start a long slow decline, the endless examination of future mediocre roleplayer prospects that we could rightly ignore if the system were halfway decent and they weren't popping up at the end of the Top 10 lists, the question of which modern version of Zeile/Appier would be most appropriate for the Wilpon family Christmas list ... I think I am giving up on optimism for the next year. Maybe for once I'll have the chance to get a good surprise this summer, not a bad one.

But yeah, I'd rather watch Thole play than Santos.

Bengie Molina to the Mets? Just how much do the Mets like their 2nd round pick?

Molina/Thole would make a lot of sense.

I don't usually do this, but I wrote about this at length last week and thought it was on point to the discussion here. Link. Feedback would actually be appreciated:

I don't think that Thole is ready to dominate the National League. In fact, I think Thole might end up being a better baseball player over his career if he had more time in AAA to learn and maybe hit for a little power. However - if there ever was a time to throw a rookie into the fire, it is now.

* * *

So how might Thole fare in the majors next year? Well, according to minorleaguesplits.com's MLE calculator, Thole's AA stats translate to a batting line of .247/.307/.314.

* * *
Obviously, his final line if allowed to play next year would be somewhere between his fantastic major league audition and the MLE above. Even being pessimistic, I see good things for Thole ... Being conservative, I'd forecast him somewhere around .290/.320/.360.

That line, like I said, does not make Thole a star. It does not make it that he is not a drag on the lineup. It does not make up for any defensive problems that he may have as a young catcher breaking into the big leagues for the first time. But it is as good, or better, than the free agent catcher options that have been discussed.

Catchers around the league don't hit. These free agents being discussed don't hit. The Mets can survive, and thrive, with a catcher who is merely average at the plate. For example, Brian Schneider posted a line of .257/.339/.367 for the Mets in 2008, his first season with the club.

Nobody blames Schneider for the Mets failure that year, and he was due over $8 million dollars over two years. Thole will make the minimum. Why are we so reluctant to give a young, good-hitting catcher the opportunity to play every day when we are so willing to let a guy like Daniel Murphy, who can barely hit, play first base every day?

The Mets need to be very careful this offseason. There is not a lot of money to go around, and there are a lot of things that need fixing.

* * *
I'm not dead set against bringing in a more experienced guy to platoon with Thole or give him a few months in AAA, but I think it would be a big mistake to sign any of the guys that have been linked to the Mets so far in rumor.

If I were the Mets, based on recent drafts, I would still pursue Bengie Molina, Or Even Jose Molina in a platoon with Thole. They can sure up first base by throwing reasonable amounts of cash at Adam LaRoche. They can make a play for Orlando Hudson, who is bound to leave LA, after not starting the last 2 games of the playoffs. In left field they can sign Rick Ankiel and resign Francoer. Right there they have 3 cannons in the outfield, all of whom play great defense. If they can solidify the starting pitching and the bridge to K-Rod, they could be epic. There are plenty of very talented free agents that can help hold the team over till Martinez, Davis etc. are ready to contribute on a day to day basis. This is all coming from a Yankee fan.

If I were the Mets, based on recent drafts, I would still pursue Bengie Molina, Or Even Jose Molina...

In left field they can sign Rick Ankiel and resign Francoer.


Just ####### shoot me instead.

2 words: Vance Wilson

Given the potential upsides and downsides of the situation, I think it'd be crazy to not cough up ~$4M for Torrealba. But hey, it's your roster.

I'm with Sam on this one. Why would you rush Thole or Davis when there are so many perfectly mediocre players who'll be available on one year deals?

What would Russ Branyan, Mike Cameron and Bengie Molina cost? Maybe $16-18M total? That would still leave a decent amount to get an SP, if the budget is unchanged.

Branyan's a power bat coming off a career year. We may all believe - and rightfully - that he's due to slide but why would you think the market would now somehow dictate he's a mediocre player that can be gotten on the cheap?

Branyan's a power bat coming off a career year. We may all believe - and rightfully - that he's due to slide but why would you think the market would now somehow dictate he's a mediocre player that can be gotten on the cheap?

Because he could only get $1.4M last year, is viewed as a part-timer, and was hurt at the end of the season.

I think the Mets could get him for 1/$5-6M. Bobby Abreu is only getting $9M per, and he has a huge positive rep, Burrell got $7M last year off a much better career, etc. etc.

Branyan would be a great fit for the Mets; they need power, and he hits a ton of no doubters. Citifield would not affect/intimidate him.

I think Cameron can be had for 1/$8-10M, and a Cameron/Beltran/Pagan OF would do wonders for the Mets pitching. I'd be shocked if Molina gets more than 1/3. If he does, there are plenty of other fungible catchers out there: Oliva, Buck, Barajas, Zaun.

Given the potential upsides and downsides of the situation, I think it'd be crazy to not cough up ~$4M for Torrealba. But hey, it's your roster.

I assume this is a joke...

Whatever happened to that grievance any way...

The way I see it, the Mets are going to get somewhere between a 75 and 85+ out of their catcher(s) in 2010, no matter what...
Let Thole catch 100 games, get someone else to catch 50-60.

I think it is depressingly obvious that Ike Davis is better off getting more seasoning. He is just the kind of hitter who I think is likely to get obliterated in the majors at this stage of his development -- the strikeouts will just swallow him live.

Ike kind of baffles me, a 1st round college hitter should not hit .256/.326/.326 in the NYPen league.

The Mutts have had what I'ev referred to as the hitting clones running through A+/AA the last few years:
.286/.374/.476
.287/.379/.450
.298/.381/.524
.311/.365/.561
.315/.379/.493
.299/.403/.471

Those slash stats are from St Lucie and Binghamton (some are a/AA combined)
they belong in no particular order to Carp/Evans/Murphy and Davis

which is which? Pretty indistinguishable right? How about this, I compare those slash stats to league average?
AGE AVG/OBP/SLG League OPS+
22 .298/.381/.524__.255/.327/.374_ 157
22 .311/.365/.561__.264/.338/.403_ 147
21 .286/.374/.476__.261/.330/.383_ 138
20 .287/.379/.450__.255/.326/.375_ 136
22 .299/.403/.471__.264/.338/.403_ 136
23 .315/.379/.493__.264/.338/.403_ 134

The bottom line is Dan Murphy's 2008 minor league numbers
The top line, the one with a 157 OPS+, is Ike Davis' 2009 minor league numbers (488 PAs)
#2 is Nick Evans 2008 line in 320 PAs- the est of his minor league (and MLB) career says he's not that good. Basically Evans/Murphy and Carp are all guys who can post a 135 OPS+ in A+ and AA- and that translates into a league average MLB hitter more or less- which is not good enough for a 1b/ corner OF.

IF Ike's 2008 NYPenn disaster was a fluke, an unusual adjustment period, and 2009 accurately reflects his abilities- then he quite likely is better than the Carp?Evans/Murphy trio by enough to make him a viable MLB regular (but not a star, I'm thinking more along the lines of Adam LaRoche)

"I assume this is a joke..."

Eh, so it didn't work out last time. That doesn't mean it wouldn't go any better this time around...

Zaun is a FA, right? I like him. I also like Branyan. Then add Holliday.

The way I see it, the Mets are going to get somewhere between a 75 and 85+ out of their catcher(s) in 2010, no matter what...
Let Thole catch 100 games, get someone else to catch 50-60.

Offense, offense, offense. Talking about what OPS+ the Mets are going to get out of their catcher shouldn't be the focus of the discussion and it certainly shouldn't be the focus of the Mets' decision-makers. They should get a guy who can (a) work with their staff and pitching coach to make progress in that area, and (b) if they DO decide to keep Thole around in the majors, work with him on his game. There is a case to be made that a young catcher can learn more being around a solid veteran in the majors than catching in the minors, if it's the right veteran and working with the right coaches. If Thole is ever going to be a useful, everyday major league catcher, it's going to be because he's a good catcher. If he adds a high OBP-based offensive contribution of some kind, that'll make him above-average. But in 2010, the Mets should take that action that is most likely to shape him into the good catcher, first. He should be in the majors if, and only if, being a caddy for a veteran teacher would accomplish that.