SNY: Salfino: A handful of AL sluggers will rebound strongly in 2010

And why not…I’m still holding out hope for Velvet Crush to rebound strongly.

Let’s continue our season-ending series on who stats consider to be lucky and unlucky players by focusing today on jinxed hitters. Next week, to close our 2009 By the Numbers coverage, we focus on unlucky pitchers.

To isolate hitting luck, we look at average with runners in scoring position (RISP) because, generally, a hitter’s success or failure here does not repeat year-to-year to the same degree as broader stats like batting average. We also isolate the percentage of homers on fly balls for hitters who should still be in their power prime. And we assess a hitter’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which generally is about .300. Note, though, that balls in play do not include homers (by definition, out of play).

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: He was unlucky on BABIP. Over the prior three years, his average was .306 on BIP, slightly north of league average. It now sits at .243. What does this mean? With a normalized rate for him, he’d have 17 more hits and an overall average of .286, not .253.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox: Pick your category. You have to buckle the seat belts and keep the airsickness bag handy, I know. It’s very tough to bet on Ortiz. But we’re searching for profit. Assume he’ll be very motivated to extend his career. If he has a full-time job next March in some American League city, he’s worth cheap speculation. There’s about a 50 percent chance he has another year like 2007 (.332-35-117) in him at age 34, not terribly old for modern sluggers. He’ll never hit close to .332 anywhere in the AL other than Fenway (which inflates average). Discount those other categories by 50 percent and you have your 2010 price.

Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles: I refuse to accept home runs on 7.3 percent on fly balls for a 26-year-old guy who was 12 percent over the last three years.