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Thursday, September 18, 2008

SNY: Salfino: Carlos Delgado among the unluckiest hitters in baseball

Why? Just because Ryan Howard passed him by in the MVP race? (Francesspoolian Diet-Cokeamamie Speak)

Let’s try to do even better now in looking only at unlucky hitters, focusing mainly on a stat courtesy of our friends at HardballTimes.com and Baseball Info Solutions: predicted OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).

Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, White Sox: His predicted OPS, which looks at balls in play and where they’re hit, is .882. His actual is a relatively puny .749, making him the unluckiest predicted OPS hitter in the sport. Use that .882 as the baseline for 2009 projections.

Carlos Delgado, 1B, Mets: He’s been so hot since June that people are talking about him as an MVP. But it’s just his luck that turned. For the full season, his predicted OPS is .965, so this potential free agent seems far from done at age 36.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves: Very confident in this play as his average with RISP was .194. If he’s got some kind of “gut” defect, why was it .284 and .337 the prior two years?

Repoz Posted: September 18, 2008 at 02:47 PM | 7 comment(s)
  Related News: General, Sabermetrics

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: September 18, 2008 at 03:21 PM (#2946556)
Also, the umpires stole a home run from him.
   2. flournoy Posted: September 18, 2008 at 03:26 PM (#2946559)
It would be very funny if Francoeur were actually one of the luckiest hitters in the league, and his true talent was worse than his performance this year.
   3. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: September 18, 2008 at 03:59 PM (#2946603)
Delgado has traditionally underperformed his PROPs although not as much as this year. It's probably because of the shift that is employed against him.
   4. Tim Lincecum doesn't Wang Chung tonite (GGC) Posted: September 18, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2946630)
I thought that PrOPS underrated fast guys, while overrating slow guys. Does it also overrate lefty pull hitters?
   5. Al Kaline Trio Posted: September 18, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#2946732)
So Delgado deserves more PrOPS than being the MVP race? I'm confused.
   6. Danny Posted: September 18, 2008 at 05:52 PM (#2946764)
PrOPS is fun to look at, but it's not very useful considering all the data it leaves out. First, Oakland always has a lot of players in the "unlucky" department, which is partially driven by the fact that their ballpark suppresses BABIP.

More importantly, there's no adjustment for speed. Both batting average (beating out singles) and SLG (stretching hits for an extra base) have a lot to do with speed.
   7. Alex Vila Posted: September 18, 2008 at 07:31 PM (#2946903)
Anything that makes us Braves' fans feel better about Frenchy's crappy season is good.
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