SNY: Salfino: Injury-plagued Mets need Santana to right the ship

All aboard the eternal caravan of reincarnation…

There are lots of stories around the Web and even in the mainstream press about Santana’s decreasing velocity. But let’s break some ground, courtesy of my friends at Baseball Info Solutions, and present Santana’s average fastball velocity month-by-month since he’s began his Mets career. Of course, March of 2008 was just one start:

He’s about 1.6 MPH off his Mets peak. My benchmark for significant concern over loss of velocity is two MPH, given that’s what scouts use to grade fastballs—88 is below average, 90 is average, 92 is plus, 94 is plus-plus. And I’m not talking peak velocity here, but average fastball velocity for starters. So Santana, by this measure, is very close to stepping down one tier in velocity, which would be significant.

On the other hand, Santana’s average fastball velocity as a Met for all the months prior to June of this year was 91.15. He’s been very effective in those months, obviously. So now our velocity loss is just 0.8 miles per hour, or one half the difference as measured by peak to trough. Looking at it this way, which I think is most reasonable, gives us due cause to be skeptical that velocity is the root cause of his recent struggles.

That leaves two other options—decreased effectiveness of his other offerings, most likely his heralded changeup, and just a random slump that will soon melt away as mysteriously as it formed.