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Thursday, March 05, 2009

SNY: Salfino: Is Wright clutch? Does it even matter?

Now, while Daniel Kahneman might have won a Nobel Prize in Economics...Daniel Johnston should have won a Nobel Prize in Mountain Dew points. And that, dear friends...is something Francesspool could truly understand.

I don’t want to pick on Francesa. He suffers only from human nature. His inability to be rational here when it comes to Wright’s clutchiness is not a moral failing.

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman of Princeton won a Nobel Prize in Economics in part for identifying this universal predisposition to “confirmation bias.” Once we make up our minds on something, we generally remember only what confirms our view and reject any evidence to the contrary by simply not choosing to remember it. This screws up the stats in our heads, creating an illusion that the number of instances of real-world proof of our beliefs is completely overwhelming and thus overwhelming evidence that the opinions we hold are correct.

If and when the Mets ultimately win a championship with Wright playing like Wright always does, the calculus will change. But until then, his failures will be highlighted. The games he wins, late or early or in the middle, will be forgotten. What will matter most will be the games the Mets lost, because that’s all that ever matters for losers. And there’s a good chance that Wright will come up short in big moments of big losses (in hindsight) because all hitters, no matter how clutch, fail more than they succeed.

Repoz Posted: March 05, 2009 at 12:47 PM | 10 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsNY MetsMediaTelevision

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   1. twon8  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 01:12 PM (#3093546)
Since clutch doesn't even exist I suppose it doesn't matter.
   2. Obama Bomaye  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 01:25 PM (#3093561)
So much for the Jeter comparisons.

Interesting how Jeter got the clutch tag. In his career, he has hit worse than expected with RISP. In most of his early seasons, he did not hit particularly well with RISP (relative to overall performance). In fact, he's only had one really good season in his entire career with RISP (2006). (In 1999 he was also awesome with RISP, but his overall performance was so awesome that his performance with RISP does not stand out.) Yet he got that clutch tag years ago and it would be very hard to shake it now. Obviously the titles help, and obviously RISP is only one possible clutch "slice" that can be looked at.
   3. Obama Bomaye  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 01:27 PM (#3093565)
Wright was also very good with RISP in '06, he sucked last year, and the rest of his career has been meh. Of course he's still very good with RISP, absolutely speaking, even if he's performed worse than one would expect relative to his overall performance.
   4. MSalfino  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 01:35 PM (#3093573)
The stats are in the piece:

For example, look at consecutive seasonal late and close OPS for a player I'll identify in a moment so you can objectively determine if he's clutch, unclutch or average clutch. For context, his career overall OPS is .845. The numbers since 2000: .920, .746, .663, .571, .833, .753, .868, .856 and .817.

You may have guessed the player is Derek Jeter, Captain Clutch himself. Was he a choker for three years (2001 to 2004)? My guess is this is just random variation. But what if 2001 was his first year as a Yankee and the team thus never won a championship with him? My strong belief is that he'd be viewed as a choker.
   5. Obama Bomaye  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 01:48 PM (#3093584)
Sorry, I usually don't arrive so early in a thread and depend on previous commenters to RTFA for me.
   6. PreservedFish  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 01:59 PM (#3093600)
I am very annoyed with how short-sighted the media is when discussing these players. There are two stupid trends in particular:

#1 Every single mainstream analysis of the Mets is confined to their 4 fulltime starters: Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Delgado. (And Delgado just barely makes this list) Those are the only players apparently worth talking about. And if the Mets are in a slump, it is the fault of those 4. Not the other 21 guys on the team.

#2 Every famous player is either clutch or a choker. There is no middle ground. Last year for a few months Beltran's numbers were a little bit behind his normal pace and all of a sudden there were weekly articles on how bored he looks, how he doesn't care about winning, even though he is clearly the best centerfielder in the league and has possibly the greatest postseason known to man in his history. Wright was clutch for a couple years, now he's a choker. Jose Reyes? Doesn't take the game seriously enough. Delgado, however, is a clutch GOD.

Ryan Church? Luis Castillo? They aren't famous enough for any journalist to have an opinion on how clutch or chokey they are. And because clutchness vs chokiness is defining narrative of sports, they don't matter. See #1.

When you combine these two trends it becomes apparent that there is a sort of assbackwards relationship between fame and knowledge: as a player becomes better known the evaluation of that player becomes less sophisticated.
   7. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66)  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 02:11 PM (#3093613)
Brett Fav-ray?--couldn't win the big ones--remember?--always choked against the Cowboys? John Madden went so far as to postulate that the crown on the Texas stadium field was throwing him off

then SB 31 happens and he's the clutchiest of the clutch from then on--even though his HEAVILY FAVORED team lost the SB the next year

now substitute "Peyton Manning" and SB 41

(and I won't even bring up Elway)
   8. JPWF13  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 02:24 PM (#3093637)
Jeter for his career has hit .316/.387/.458 (BTW he's cleared 9000 PAs...)
Late and close: .289/.387/.420 (I assume you see a lot of closers and set-up men then)
Within 1 run: .324/.389/.477
Lead of 4+: .295/.379/.410
(well at least that says he doesn't pad his #s in blowouts)
Hi leverage: .327/.408/.448
Lo leverage: .304/.377/.440
(he does best with medium leverage)
RISP: .311/.405/.434

Wright for his career has hit .309/.389/.533
Late and close: .307/.407/.483 (less drop off than Jeter)
Within 1 run: .323/.405/.544
Lead of 4+: .291/.379/.534
Hi leverage: .315/.397/.531
Lo leverage: .301/.387/.534
RISP: .300/.394/.501

One player the media says is clutch, the other is not...
   9. John DiFool2  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 02:27 PM (#3093641)
I have a curious sensation of deja vu...AAHHH! [runs away in terror]
   10. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter  Posted: March 05, 2009 at 06:27 PM (#3094019)
Sorry, I usually don't arrive so early in a thread and depend on previous commenters to RTFA for me.


Hey! That's my bit.
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