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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, March 05, 2009
Now, while Daniel Kahneman might have won a Nobel Prize in Economics…Daniel Johnston should have won a Nobel Prize in Mountain Dew points. And that, dear friends…is something Francesspool could truly understand.
I don’t want to pick on Francesa. He suffers only from human nature. His inability to be rational here when it comes to Wright’s clutchiness is not a moral failing.
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman of Princeton won a Nobel Prize in Economics in part for identifying this universal predisposition to “confirmation bias.” Once we make up our minds on something, we generally remember only what confirms our view and reject any evidence to the contrary by simply not choosing to remember it. This screws up the stats in our heads, creating an illusion that the number of instances of real-world proof of our beliefs is completely overwhelming and thus overwhelming evidence that the opinions we hold are correct.
If and when the Mets ultimately win a championship with Wright playing like Wright always does, the calculus will change. But until then, his failures will be highlighted. The games he wins, late or early or in the middle, will be forgotten. What will matter most will be the games the Mets lost, because that’s all that ever matters for losers. And there’s a good chance that Wright will come up short in big moments of big losses (in hindsight) because all hitters, no matter how clutch, fail more than they succeed.
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Interesting how Jeter got the clutch tag. In his career, he has hit worse than expected with RISP. In most of his early seasons, he did not hit particularly well with RISP (relative to overall performance). In fact, he's only had one really good season in his entire career with RISP (2006). (In 1999 he was also awesome with RISP, but his overall performance was so awesome that his performance with RISP does not stand out.) Yet he got that clutch tag years ago and it would be very hard to shake it now. Obviously the titles help, and obviously RISP is only one possible clutch "slice" that can be looked at.
#1 Every single mainstream analysis of the Mets is confined to their 4 fulltime starters: Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Delgado. (And Delgado just barely makes this list) Those are the only players apparently worth talking about. And if the Mets are in a slump, it is the fault of those 4. Not the other 21 guys on the team.
#2 Every famous player is either clutch or a choker. There is no middle ground. Last year for a few months Beltran's numbers were a little bit behind his normal pace and all of a sudden there were weekly articles on how bored he looks, how he doesn't care about winning, even though he is clearly the best centerfielder in the league and has possibly the greatest postseason known to man in his history. Wright was clutch for a couple years, now he's a choker. Jose Reyes? Doesn't take the game seriously enough. Delgado, however, is a clutch GOD.
Ryan Church? Luis Castillo? They aren't famous enough for any journalist to have an opinion on how clutch or chokey they are. And because clutchness vs chokiness is defining narrative of sports, they don't matter. See #1.
When you combine these two trends it becomes apparent that there is a sort of assbackwards relationship between fame and knowledge: as a player becomes better known the evaluation of that player becomes less sophisticated.
then SB 31 happens and he's the clutchiest of the clutch from then on--even though his HEAVILY FAVORED team lost the SB the next year
now substitute "Peyton Manning" and SB 41
(and I won't even bring up Elway)
Late and close: .289/.387/.420 (I assume you see a lot of closers and set-up men then)
Within 1 run: .324/.389/.477
Lead of 4+: .295/.379/.410
(well at least that says he doesn't pad his #s in blowouts)
Hi leverage: .327/.408/.448
Lo leverage: .304/.377/.440
(he does best with medium leverage)
RISP: .311/.405/.434
Wright for his career has hit .309/.389/.533
Late and close: .307/.407/.483 (less drop off than Jeter)
Within 1 run: .323/.405/.544
Lead of 4+: .291/.379/.534
Hi leverage: .315/.397/.531
Lo leverage: .301/.387/.534
RISP: .300/.394/.501
One player the media says is clutch, the other is not...
Hey! That's my bit.
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