My Predictions

Johan: 220 IP, 160 ERA+.
Pedro: 175 IP, 125 ERA+.
Maine: 180 IP, 105 ERA+.
Perez: 180 IP, 105 ERA+.
El Duque: 100 IP, 95 ERA+.
Pelfrey: 80 IP, 80 ERA+.

Johan: 220 IP, 160 ERA+.
Pedro: 175 IP, 125 ERA+.
Maine: 180 IP, 105 ERA+.
Perez: 180 IP, 105 ERA+.
El Duque: 100 IP, 95 ERA+.
Pelfrey: 80 IP, 80 ERA+.

IMO, nothing to argue with there.

Looking at modern power relievers, it’s probably safe to assume that Wagner won’t fall off the cliff until age 38

That sentence doesn't make sense to me. It's rarely safe to assume anything with players 2-3 years into the future ... especially when they aren't based on an evaluation of the player himself but on a vague comparison to previous players.

but no Mets ever pitching a no-no (is that a double negative?) is a streak that soon should end.

I don't understand this sentence either. You're predicting a no-hitter?

With that said, I realize that you have to balance the boringness of a totally honest and realistic projection in which you are only confident to give ranges of possibilities with the fun of a projection in which you make more detailed and exciting predictions.

Johan: 220 IP, 160 ERA+.
Pedro: 175 IP, 125 ERA+.
Maine: 180 IP, 105 ERA+.
Perez: 180 IP, 105 ERA+.
El Duque: 100 IP, 95 ERA+.
Pelfrey: 80 IP, 80 ERA+.

I have Pedro at 135 IP, and one of Maine and Perez at under 100.

That strikes me as way pessimistic on Ollie and Maine. It wouldn't shock me if Pedro pitched that few innings, though I'd go closer to the 175 total.

El Duque, on the other hand, I think is cooked. Pains me to say it, because I have some awfully fond memories of the guy, but he's a 42 year-old who still hasn't thrown a pitch in anger this year and whose ERA was nearly six and a half after August 15 last season.

I took the no-hitter comment to mean over the course of his contract with the Mets. I think the likelihood that Santana throws a no-hitter sometime in the next six years is not ridiculous -- I would think it's more likely, actually, than his not doing it.

IMO, nothing to argue with there.

Even though you aren't arguning with me, I am going to justify my predictions.

Johan: He is a better pitcher now than Pedro was when he first came to the Mets and Pedro posted a 217 IP, 145 ERA+ season. I would not be surprised if he's better than that.

Pedro: That's an optimistic IP total but Pedro did average 205 IP from 2002-2005 and his shoulder has been the only major health problem he has ever had. I think he's going to be relatively healthy in 2008 16 months after surgery. Some may project a higher ERA+ but I don't see it unless I see him consistently at 88-90, with a few 92 MPH fastballs when needed.

Maine: I love his fastball, 91-93 consistently with a 2-3 at 95 when needed, and it as late movement. That said, his control isn't good enough to make the jump into the 115-130 ERA+ level. His seconday stuff is solid but unspectacular.

Perez: His fastball velocity varies from start to start. Sometimes he is 92-94 with one or two at 96, sometimes he is at 87-89. Oliver needs to throw hard because he doesn't have the command to be successful with an average fastball. I don't think his control will be good enough in 2008 (if ever) to be in the 115-130 ERA+ area.

El Duque: I honestly don't see how he can be as good as he has been with the Mets (111 ERA+) with a new motion. Even if you buy the idea that the leg kick does not provide deception (which I don't), it has to effect his timing. How can a guy pitch one way his whole career and alter his motion without losing some effectiveness?

Pelfrey; His secondary stuff doesn't seem any better today than it was a year ago.

Pains me to say it, because I have some awfully fond memories of the guy, but he's a 42 year-old who still hasn't thrown a pitch in anger this year and whose ERA was nearly six and a half after August 15 last season.

It was only two bad outings when he was hurting. Duque has pretty good stuff for an older guy. The new motion is what worries me about him and, of course, injuries. If it weren't for the new motion, I'd predict a higher ERA+.

I think #1 is a little low on Maine, both in innings and in ERA+. Unless he gets hurt, I see no reason why he can't get 190-200 innings in, and around a 3.75 ERA. That's if he doesn't get hurt, but also if he doesn't have a breakout season, which he very well could.

El Duque, on the other hand, seems like wishcasting in expectation of 100 innings on average. I think there's practically no chance he pitches substantially more than that, and a very good chance he pitches a lot less.

Perez is very hard to figure. I expect some serious regression because of that dramatic amount of unearned runs; then again, it was his first full season under Peterson and his stuff is just awesome when it's on. I wouldn't be shocked to see 130 innings of 95 ERA+; I also wouldn't be shocked to see 190 innings of 125 ERA+.

The innings are high (as an average) for Pedro, and the ERA+ is low. I expect 180-200 innings and a 130-140 ERA+ but he is still coming off of surgery so it's lunacy to actually project that kind of success. (I think Pedro is going to shock people this season with his high performance; he's cured the arm problem and rested the toe quite a bit.)

If Pelfrey is around an 80 ERA+ there's no way Randolph keeps him as a starter for 80 innings.

Do we have anyone better than Pelfrey for #5 if El Duque is a no go? Because we really haven't a clue yet if he can pitch AT ALL this year.

Do we have anyone better than Pelfrey for #5 if El Duque is a no go? Because we really haven't a clue yet if he can pitch AT ALL this year.

I don't know why Sosa isn't being considered. I'd take his 07 numbers in the fifth starter spot.

Lassus, probably not. But Randolph will use a scrap heap pickup before he'll run Pelfrey out there stinking up the joint for too many innings.

The only other starters on the roster according to ESPN are Steven Register, Jason Vargas (the page has conflicting info: it says March hip surgery and out for three months, and also day-to-day -- which is it?), and I suppose Jorge Sosa.

I assume there are at least a few craptastic AAA starters that could be called up in case of emergency as well.

Sosa is really bad against lefties. He's like the anti-Schoenweis.

I don't mind spot-starting him against teams that are dominated by right-handed hitters. I expect fairly miserable results against teams that have three or more good-hitting lefties; Philly and Atlanta both have offenses that will feast on Sosa from the left side. (Just think of Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Geoff Jenkins, and then add Dobbs. Vittorino is a switch-hitter too.)

Ideally, Sosa would be the ROOGY and soulmate to Schoenweis as LOOGY. I don't mind having Sosa in there against Pat Burrell or Ryan Braun in a critical situation; I think there he's an asset.

That zone everyone talks about is what we all needed to survive back when we encountered tigers on strolls around the African Savanna

I don't believe there are any tigers in the African Savanna. There are Lions though.

I think Lackey is a good comparable for Maine. I can easily see Maine putting up an ERA+ of 120 or better.

El Duque, on the other hand, I think is cooked. Pains me to say it, because I have some awfully fond memories of the guy, but he's a 42 year-old who still hasn't thrown a pitch in anger this year and whose ERA was nearly six and a half after August 15 last season.

I think you better add 3-4 years to that age total. I'd be more suprised to find out that age is accurate than to find out he's 50.

Jason Vargas out for a while after hip surgery.

42 is his generally accepted "actual" age. He claims to be...39, I think. Maybe 38.