Prediction: The Mets are going to take college pitching in the first round of the draft.

EDIT: which will be true even if Hosmer drops to them.

-- MWE

Has BTF had the "how far has Fernando fallen as a prospect" discussion yet? He hit two homeruns yesterday, which brings his season line to:

.264/.297/.403, 144 AB, 3 HR, 7 BB, 38 Ks

He is still so young that it is almost impossible to talk about where his production is or should be right now. But when he debuted and hit .330 in his first stop, I thought that we had a Justin Upton type of prospect on our hands, who would rocket through the levels putting up ridiculous numbers. It's clear now that he isn't that guy - now he's the "scouts love his swing, just be patient" guy.

I really respect your views on this, Mike. But that would really suck for the Mets, IMO. Hosmer is going to be a lefty David Wright, I predict, but with more power.

I think teams with payroll flexibility like the Mets should just buy their pitchers, though I admit that's getting tougher and tougher with teams signing these guys through their walk years; but when that blows up in a bunch of teams' faces, they'll stop doing it.

Speaking of college pitchers, what do you think of Cashner? He could be there, right? (At 22.)

By the way, I told SNY that I'm definitely not the future of the Mets and asked them to change the head, but not until I printed it out so I could tack it on my bulletin board.

We stand by our projection of him as a lefty Carlos Lee—a guy with plus power and batting average but not a lot of defensive value.”

Carlos Lee? Really? The guy is 19 and in AA and you're (not you Salfino, Eddy) thinking Carlos Lee?

It's clear now that he isn't that guy - now he's the "scouts love his swing, just be patient" guy.

I think that's selling him short a lot, although that may just be my interpretation of that tag line. That being said, I think the Mets are way over aggressive in promoting their prospects and ought to let a guy like Martinez, who is just so young, settle down and dominate a level for more then 200 ABs.

Prediction: The Mets are going to take college pitching in the first round of the draft.

Hopefully not more college relief pitching.

Prediction: The Mets are going to take college pitching in the first round of the draft.

Oh, way to be daring there, Mike. Let's see . . .

Prediction: John Bolton is going to be belicose today!

Prediction: Paula Abdul is going to be incoherent on American Idol next Tuesday.

Prediction: There will be violence in some part of the Middle East this week.

Prediction: Multiple Waltons will say goodnight to each other on reruns, into infinity.

How do we hit so well on these astonishing predictions??? Because it's what they do!!! The Mets draft college pitchers in the first round. It's what they do.

BA’s early mock draft has the Mets taking Josh Fields. But are they really going to take yet another college reliever?

Matusz and Crow will be grabbed in the top 10, Scheppers and Hunt right behind them, so if the Mets are going to take college starting pitching at 18, it would have to be Friedrich.

This is kind of nice. At Savannah:

Catcher Francisco Peña is 18 all season and making strides as a hitter -- .288 overall and .341 his last 10 games. Last year at Savannah, he hit .210.

Signs of a pulse, at least . . . .

I think teams with payroll flexibility like the Mets should just buy their pitchers, though I admit that's getting tougher and tougher with teams signing these guys through their walk years; but when that blows up in a bunch of teams' faces, they'll stop doing it.

That's almost impossible nowdays given the cost of even mediocre pitching, if it even reachs FA.

You need to do the opposite, develop pitching. Buy the hitters.

Hitters are much more consistent; better to have your $$ tied up in them.

Sickels has his college pitcher rankings post today. Seems appropriate for this thread. From that list, I think we can comfortably count out Crow, Matusz, and Scheppers from consideration as the Mets' pick at 18. Hunt might still be there. Fields will probably be there but I don't see the Mets being interested in him. Friedrich and Cashner might be available. I don't see anyone else on John's list that would be good enough to merit a pick at 18, so I think the consideration set is really those three guys. here are John's writeups:

4) Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane: 8-1, 2.04 ERA with 96/39 K/BB in 70.2 innings, 33 hits allowed. Very good K/IP and exceptionally good H/IP ratio (he's held hitters to a .138 mark) testify to the quality of his stuff, but his walk rate is too high. Lots of potential here, but a cut beneath the top three. In the mix for the Shadow Twins at 14.

...

6) Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky University: 5-1, 1.78 ERA with 86/24 K/BB in 65.2 innings, 32 hits allowed. Strong K/IP ratio, not many hits, walk rate is higher than ideal. Three-pitch lefty, not quite in Matusz quality but a legitimate first-round pick.

7) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian University: Stock is rising rapidly. He throws hard, and has a 2.06 ERA with a 61/24 K/BB in 39.1 innings, allowing 13 hits. Excellent K/IP and H/IP ratios back up scouting reports of plus stuff. Rumors have him possibly going as high as the mid first round.

If they could get Christian Friedrich to fall to them, it would be wonderful. After covering the Cape League this past summer, there were two pitchers I came away extraordinarily impressed with: Crow and Friedrich. Friedrich has quite the arsenal and has got to be close to major-league ready.

By the way, I told SNY that I'm definitely not the future of the Mets...

Not so fast--do you have a 1bman's mitt?

That's almost impossible nowdays given the cost of even mediocre pitching, if it even reachs FA.

You need to do the opposite, develop pitching. Buy the hitters.

Hitters are much more consistent; better to have your $$ tied up in them.

My take is that the hitters are easier to project at a younger age and mid-market and even low-market teams can more easily afford to be aggressive in buying out their free agency.

They're going to get burned more doing this with pitchers and thus that practice is more likely to tail off.

Couldn't mid-market pitching admittedly be very expensive while up-market hitting is simply not going to be available in the near future (via free agency)?

My take is that the hitters are easier to project at a younger age and mid-market and even low-market teams can more easily afford to be aggressive in buying out their free agency.

They're going to get burned more doing this with pitchers and thus that practice is more likely to tail off.

Couldn't mid-market pitching admittedly be very expensive while up-market hitting is simply not going to be available in the near future (via free agency)?

I think small/mid-market teams will lock up hitters for one contract. Arb buyout plus 1-2 FA years. They'll still be available around age 30. Expensive, but available.

If a top pitcher makes it to FA, he's off-the-charts expensive.

Next year you'll have Texeira and Sabbathia available. Say Tex goes for 120/6 and CC for 150/6.

If Tex is a "bust" you've got the Giambi contract, which is bad, but a big market team can support it. If CC is a "bust" you've got the Zito contract, which will hurt even the Yanks/Mets/Sox, and cripple a normal large market team.

The downside is just so much greater and more likely for an "established" pitcher than for an equivalent hitter.

Say Tex goes for 120/6 and CC for 150/6.

You think CC will go for more than Texeira?

If Tex is a "bust" you've got the Giambi contract, which is bad, but a big market team can support it. If CC is a "bust" you've got the Zito contract, which will hurt even the Yanks/Mets/Sox, and cripple a normal large market team.

I totally agree. In a rational market though, this means CC goes for less. And I think he will.

I really respect your views on this, Mike. But that would really suck for the Mets, IMO. Hosmer is going to be a lefty David Wright, I predict, but with more power.

I have no idea who the hell this guy is, but it makes no sense to say that acquiring a better player than David Wright would "suck for the Mets."

D A, I believe salfino was saying that it would suck for the Mets if they took a college pitcher rather than Hosmer.

Whoops, sorry, you're correct; I can't read. I thought that guy was putting a ridiculous emphasis on the fact we already had a 3B...

that guy

Please show some respect. I am the future of the Mets, after all.

Catcher Francisco Peña is 18 all season and making strides as a hitter -- .288 overall and .341 his last 10 games. Last year at Savannah, he hit .210.

He has allowed an incredible amount of passed balls already this year. I was surprised when Rotoworld said he has great defensive skills and that he'll be a regular if he can hit.

He has allowed an incredible amount of passed balls already this year.

Looking at that photo, it doesn't seem like much gets past him at the buffet table.

You think CC will go for more than Texeira?

Almost certainly, unless he has a poor year. An ace is SO MUCH rarer than a hitter these days.

Santana got what $22.5M per with no one else bidding. In a open bidding contest, I don't see how CC goes less than $25M per.

Soriano got $17M a year ago. Tex has less defensive value, but with salary inflation, I'd peg him around $20M.

Hey, Salfino, I know you aren't customer service, but who do I got to ##### at to get SNY HD added to the HD lineup for Time Warner cable out here in the western part of New York State? YESHD* is part of the free HD tier out here and SNYHD isn't available At ALL! I would like to think that the Mets organization wouldn't particularly like that to stand.

*Kei Igawa is on the top of a short list of reasons of why a person shouldn't get HD service. Seriously, folks, I've seen burn victims who look better. And I'm not talking about surviving burn victims. The dead, charcoal-looking corpses. The man's that ugly. I'm praying that he's released soon... after the digital switchover early next year, no one would be safe.**

**Yes, I know that digital doesn't equal high definition, but the joke wouldn't have worked otherwise.***

***Yes, it's debatable that it worked at all anyway. #### off.

If the Mets take another college reliever in the first round of the draft, I'm going to be very upset.