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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Souhan: Is it time for Twins to ponder the unthinkable?

Build a Bucky Guth statue outside Target Field? Have Assrash perform on Opening Day?? Trade Joe Mauer??? WTF!

A deal between the All-Star catcher and the Twins is still more likely than not, and at any moment Mauer’s agent, Ron Shapiro, could call the team and make it happen, prompting a combination press conference/Minnesota Mardi Gras.

But a combination of modern baseball logic and Twins history suggests that if the Twins’ decision-makers can’t sign Mauer, they will be obligated to trade him.

The Twins and Shapiro have kept the details of their negotiations remarkably quiet, but my sense, after talking with a variety of people, is that the team has offered more than $20 million a year. If Shapiro is intent on pushing Mauer to $25 million or more a year, Mauer might find himself on the Johan Santana Shuttle out of town.

A trade could yield a closer to replace Joe Nathan and would protect the franchise in the future from having one player on their roster consuming 20 to 25 percent of their payroll, a formula that rarely works in baseball.

Repoz Posted: March 11, 2010 at 05:41 AM | 32 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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1. Anonymous Observer Posted: March 11, 2010 at 06:54 AM (#3477212)

A trade could yield a closer to replace Joe Nathan

Trading arguably the best player in the AL, and possibly all of baseball, for a closer?

That sounds fair to me.

AO

2. greenback

Posted: March 11, 2010 at 06:58 AM (#3477213)

That makes more sense than trading their spot in the AL Central to the Tampa Bay Rays.

3. alskor Posted: March 11, 2010 at 07:00 AM (#3477214)

Boy he said it. Trading Mauer for parts and a Closer would sure be "unthinkable."

4. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: March 11, 2010 at 07:04 AM (#3477215)

No. No. No.

But, if the Twins decide to begin the long road to contraction (an exaggeration perhaps, but still), the Blue Jays will offer both Scott Downs and Jason Frasor. Why get just one closer when you can get two?

5. Tuque

Posted: March 11, 2010 at 07:12 AM (#3477217)

We Dodgers offer you Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill.

It may not sound like much, but in my MLB 2K10 franchise Sherrill became the best closer in baseball in 2011, taking the role over admirably after I traded Broxton for Jon Lester. It could happen! If life resembled a really, really shitty video game, that is.

6. larkin4HoF Posted: March 11, 2010 at 08:04 AM (#3477227)

If Shapiro is intent on pushing Mauer to $25 million or more a year

If you really think that Joe Mauer is to stupid to make basic decisions about his salary negotiations, why would you want to keep him?

7. Fancy Pants Handle is the AntAgonizer Posted: March 11, 2010 at 11:17 AM (#3477235)

If you really think that Joe Mauer is to stupid to make basic decisions about his salary negotiations, why would you want to keep him?

You're right of course, he's the only professional athlete that hire's an agent to get him the best deal possible. And here's a newsflash, Mauer ain't getting paid for his brains...

8. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot

Posted: March 11, 2010 at 11:52 AM (#3477238)

A trade could yield a closer to replace Joe Nathan

Enter Sandman!

9. Greg (U)K Posted: March 11, 2010 at 12:01 PM (#3477241)

It may not sound like much, but in my MLB 2K10 franchise Sherrill became the best closer in baseball in 2011, taking the role over admirably after I traded Broxton for Jon Lester. It could happen! If life resembled a really, really shitty video game, that is.

One feature I like about that game is that you can control all 30 teams. I'm in early-May of my first season and about 40 guys are batting .400...does this kind of thing continue for a full season?

10. OCD SS Posted: March 11, 2010 at 12:30 PM (#3477246)

So does this count as the Twins negotiating in the press? One thing I notice is that while variants of the phrase "record setting offer" abound, the length of the deal the Twins are proposing isn't ever brought up. I assume the record to break in this case is Morneau's $80M/ 6yr deal and this article's tone changes a bit if "the Twins' attitude will change from eagerness to sign Mauer, to indignation that he won't accept a franchise-record offer" is for $100M/ 5yrs.

11. Artie Ziff Posted: March 11, 2010 at 01:16 PM (#3477257)

Nothing shocking about this at all. Shipping out to Boston by July.

12. RollingWave Posted: March 11, 2010 at 01:18 PM (#3477258)

Joba + Cervelli for Joe Mauer. we'll throw in Kei Igawa while we're at it!

13. Repoz

Posted: March 11, 2010 at 01:25 PM (#3477259)

My anti-stat bookie buddy told me that the Minn O/U line dropped 4-5 (I haven't checked) after the Nathan news...but he told me that losing Nathan will mean 10-12 less wins this year for the Twins.

If he jiggles the line...I might be getting back in the game!

14. mos def panel Posted: March 11, 2010 at 02:26 PM (#3477278)

Tell me more, Artie Ziff, in your sexy COBOL voice.

15. LargeBill Posted: March 11, 2010 at 02:32 PM (#3477282)

This column is exhibit A in the case for mocking Souhan. No GM with any brains would consider trading a great catcher to acquire a relief pitcher. Closers are the least reliable role on a team. Look at just about any season in the past 20 and see how many saves go to guys who were not their teams closer on opening day. Guys like Rivera, Hoffman and up to now Nathan are an anomaly. The Twins have several in house options to close who likely will do fairly well. Will they get the near perfect results that Nathan has given them? Probably not. It is nice to have a shut down closer, but my guess is the other eight innings are important as well.

16. LargeBill Posted: March 11, 2010 at 02:35 PM (#3477285)

Problem solved. Just sign this free agent: http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=1838&sn=t

17. Fancy Pants Handle is the AntAgonizer Posted: March 11, 2010 at 02:37 PM (#3477286)

My anti-stat bookie buddy told me that the Minn O/U line dropped 4-5 (I haven't checked) after the Nathan news...but he told me that losing Nathan will mean 10-12 less wins this year for the Twins.

Well last year his WPA was 3.84, that's about as generous as you can make it. And it assumes you're giving your closer position to an average pitcher, instad of you know, your set-up man or something...

18. Gamingboy Posted: March 11, 2010 at 02:42 PM (#3477289)

*foams at mouth*

19. DL from MN Posted: March 11, 2010 at 03:24 PM (#3477312)

The thread comments are ridiculous. "$20M is more than I'll ever make so Mauer should just take it and shut up!"

If Mauer is only asking for $25M a season then the Twins are very stupid not to give it to him. 8 years $200M is perfectly reasonable.

20. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 11, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3477315)

A trade could yield a closer to replace Joe Nathan and would protect the franchise in the future from having one player on their roster consuming 20 to 25 percent of their payroll, a formula that rarely works in baseball.

How often does it even happen that one player makes up 20-25 percent of a team's payroll? Todd Helton constituted 22 percent of the Rockies' payroll last year, and they did all right. Manny Ramirez was about 24 percent of the Dodgers' payroll, and they did fine, too. Barry Zito made up 22 percent of the Giants' payroll, and they won 86 games.

Did I miss anyone?

21. Nasty Nate Posted: March 11, 2010 at 03:33 PM (#3477316)

The unthinkable? like trading away the best pitcher in baseball and then finishing 1 game out of the playoffs the next season. That worked out great.

22. LargeBill Posted: March 11, 2010 at 03:51 PM (#3477325)

DL,

Not sure I'd call the Twins "very stupid" for not rushing into a deal to give a player $25,000,000 P/YR for 8 years. Mauer may very well continue to be one of the top few players in the game. However, that is not guaranteed. He has had knee issues so a slight hesitancy to break the bank is understandable. Mauer and his representative should attempt to get as much compensation as they can and the Twins need to negotiate a prudent deal that doesn't hamstring the team going forward. The issue will be can both sides win?

Is Mauer going to be happy if he gets 26M per year and he is surrounded in the lineup by Nick Punto and others of his talent level?

23. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 11, 2010 at 03:58 PM (#3477334)

24. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: March 11, 2010 at 04:07 PM (#3477338)

25. Joe Mauer Power Hour Posted: March 11, 2010 at 04:23 PM (#3477351)

Even if Mauer isn't able to catch in the long run, he's still a valuable player at first base or DH. At $20 million+, he'd be overpaid if he's not a catcher, but the contract still wouldn't be a disaster.

He'd be overpaid today if he's not a catcher. I don't think he'd be overpaid at that price toward the end of his contract.

26. Joe Mauer Power Hour Posted: March 11, 2010 at 04:25 PM (#3477352)

OK, forget closers. Is there any pitcher in baseball that you'd trade Mauer for straight up? Lincecum, maybe? If Mauer's relatively minor knee and back history mean that the Twins need to be careful, then isn't anyone who pitches an even bigger risk?

I think if there's no chance to sign Mauer to an extension, I'd be okay with trading him for Lincecum straight up. I'd rather they do something like that than play the prospect lottery.

27. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: March 11, 2010 at 04:26 PM (#3477353)

I don't think he'd be overpaid at that price toward the end of his contract.

You have to consider his age at the end of that contract. And I think the age of exponentially escalating salaries is over.

28. Cris E Posted: March 11, 2010 at 04:26 PM (#3477354)

Jim Souhan is sooooo dumb...

(how dumb is he?)

...he might not have written this just for cheap page hits!

29. joker24 Posted: March 11, 2010 at 06:57 PM (#3477505)

My anti-stat bookie buddy told me that the Minn O/U line dropped 4-5 (I haven't checked) after the Nathan news...but he told me that losing Nathan will mean 10-12 less wins this year for the Twins.

I would kill to have an anti-stat bookie. I have to settle for anti-stat friends who like to gamble but don't offer on every line.

30. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 11, 2010 at 07:11 PM (#3477523)

ponder the unthinkable?

Can God ponder a thing so unthinkable that he can't think it?

31. DL from MN Posted: March 11, 2010 at 08:17 PM (#3477616)

No, they would be very dumb not to sign Mauer for $25M a year. Let Mauer sign with the Yankees and they lose half their season ticket holders. They would be in worse financial shape if they didn't sign Mauer for $25M than if they did.

32. robinred

Posted: March 11, 2010 at 08:21 PM (#3477621)

I hope Mauer re-signs with the Twins soon, partly so I don't have columns like this I need to avoid.

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