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He will also have a better defense...and who knows how the AL will take to his awkward delivery.
And there's a very plausible chance that he'll never again be as good as Carlos Silva.
Willis 2005-06-07:
HR/9 = 0.41, 0.84, 1.27
BB/9 = 2.09, 3.35, 3.81
ERA+ = 151, 112, 83
It isn't the kind of trendline you really like to see.
Not a bad position to be in at all.
Short of Willis blowing up, I can't see how this isn't a good deal for the Tigers.
An increase in homers, walks and ERA is exactly what I would expect to see from a guy pitching in front of a defense that has at least 4 players who are among the worst in the league at their positions (2nd, 3rd, SS and LF IIRC).
Heck, Detroit could sign Sabathia or Santana next year and trade Willis to the NL, and get back prospects for him....
Willis has never put up CY peripherals though, even his one really good year was driven by luck more than skill as he posted a 3.73 xERA. There is no reason to expect him to have a sub 4 ERA though he could sneak down there since ERA is so random and his funky delivery might throw people off the first time through the league. There is no reason to expect a 5 ERA either though.
Giambi 1998-1999-2000-2001
Avg .295-.315-.333-.342
OBP .384-.422-.476-.477
SLG .489-.543-.647-.660
OPS+ 130-153-187-198
A four year trend that's even more pronounced than Willis'! I predict Giambi to have a 210 OPS+ in 2002.
Javier Lopez 1999-2000-2001-2002
Avg .317-.287-.267-.233
OBP .375-.337-.322-.299
SLG .533-.484-.425-.372
OPS+ 127-104-89-74
I sure hope the Braves weren't stupid enough to keep that bum around in 2003...
Tom Glavine 1991-1992-1993-1994
ERA+ 153-133-127-106
WHIP 1.095-1.187-1.362-1.470
CG 9-7-4-2
Another over-used young arm burning up fast. Damn that arm shredder Bobby Cox!
An increase, sure. A tripling in HR rate and a near-doubling in walk rate over a 3-year period is more than a mere "increase."
BTW, I agree that it's a fair deal, and I'd have signed it if I were the Tigers. And there is a possibility that it will turn out to be a steal. Most likely he'll settle in as a league-average innings-eater type. But it's not realistic to dismiss the possibility that there's more wrong with Willis than simply a bad defense behind him, and that the Tigers will pay $29 million for 3 seasons of crap/DL/crap/DL.
As is anything if we want to play with selective cases and endpoints.
But in general, trends are the furthest thing from misleading, and it isn't sensible to pretend they're meaningless.
You stop trusting, so you nibble more, so you throw more balls so you end up throwing more get it over the plate type pitches which result in more HRs. After watching bad Jeter (01-03), Soriano and Giambi play together for three years, I am fairly confident this happens to some, particurlarly younger pitchers. Weaver was the most obvious example, but I think Lily struggled with it too when he came up.
Edit: and what Salvo and Josh said which maybe be a more pratical, objective way of phrasing what I think I saw.
He is three years younger than Silva, has a better ERA+, has way more upside and even with declining peripherals his K/IP blows the anemic Silva out of the water. I don't know that Detroit's defense will be all that much better, but I do think Dontrelle will be more into it, and I'm guessing the Tigers did their homework on his medical status.
3 years and 29 vs. 4 years and 40 for Silva is not even comparable. It's a steal. There is a chance that every contract can turn out bad. There is relatively little chance of this blowing up on the Tigers as compared to many notable deals of the recent past (Pavano, Wright, Burnett, Schmidt, Hampton, to name but a few).
The adjustment to AL hitting will be interesting though...any thoughts?
So, let's be negative and say in 2008 he'd have a 4.40 ERA in FLO...what does this equal in Detroit?
Well, according to Willis' page at B-Ref the NL lg ERA was 4.30, and the AL's (using Josh Becketts' page as a random example) was 4.74.
So, let's add .44 (4.74 - 4.30) to that 4.40 "off-the-top-of-my- head" projection above and he'd have a 4.84 ERA and probably throw over 200 IP.
If he did that for the duration of the contract...even though his age says he'll improve...he's easily worth 10 mill in today's market.
I was a huge Dontrelle fan- but I don't think Detroit will be happy with paying him nearly 10 million a year. It's NL to AL, and it isn't as if he's moving to a particularly good defense. I know you can make a decent argument for Dontrelle's future on ZIPS- all I can tell you is, he looked cooked when I saw him. I hope I'm wrong.
You realize that college (heck, high school) interns write the news blurbs for all those fantasy sites, right? You'd get the same level of analysis from the clerks at Blockbuster.
Isn't it a little early for reverse jinxes, Vaux?
Everyone posting in this thread is a better option than Mike Maroth. Most corpses, invertebrates and beverages are better options than Mike Maroth.
Pitchers hit a 365 OPS last year in all of baseball, and Willis had a 639 career OPS (856 last year). He averages about 70 at-bats per year, or 2 per start, for him.
2007: 14.7
2006: 7.1
2005: 10.6
2004: 5.1
2003: 6.5
If we give him 10 runs per year, that's a 0.45 difference in ERA per 200 IP (with a RS=RA).
Even worse, they weren't locked in for 2009 yet.
But who knows what sort of replacement level they are using for that? Actually, comparing a pitcher's offense to replacement level is a dumb idea in the first place, since they aren't selected for hitting skills. If NL Willis got hurt for the year, the replacement level pitchers would be expected to hit like an average pitcher. There is probably no difference at all in the batting abilities of major league pitchers, AAA pitchers, and maybe even rookie ball or college pitchers.
I checked Willis's numbers, MGL's figure of 0.30 runs is accurate. He's worth about 7 runs more per year than an average pitcher at the plate.
And, as some others have pointed out, Detroit's infield defense figures to be pretty damn terrible this year (LF should see a lot of ground balls), so let's not pretend getting out of Florida is going to boost his numbers.
In Santana's case I was referring to the injury risk being too high. I think it's the 6-7 year contract that really spooks most teams. Even Santana probably has a 30% chance of completely disintegrating in the first 3 years of that deal, leaving you with 3-4 un-insurable years where you're paying $20-25M per for absolutely nothing.
I think if Santana could be signed for a 4/90 extension, teams would part with the prospects.
Same thirdbaseman (I can't understand why they don't put Guillen at third, but maybe Cabrera out of FLA will improve), a ten run improvement at SS, a 20-30 run improvement at 2nd and a former SS at first instead of a bad first baseman. They also have one of the best CFers and RFers in the league. Detroits defense isn't Toronto's, but they have three top tier defenders on their team and even where they aren't strong, they figure to be better then what Dontrelle was pitching in front of in Miami.
And it appears to be the going rate for an innings eater. Although he may repeat the last three years in the AL as hitters get used to his odd delivery.
And it appears to be the going rate for an innings eater. Although he may repeat the last three years in the AL as hitters get used to his odd delivery.
I want to thank the BWAA for voting Willis the 2003 ROY. While Willis is going to haul in 29 million over the next 3 years, Webb is signed for 12 million for the next two years with an option for 8.5 million for 2010, for a total 20.5 Million for the next 3 years. Of course within a year at the most the D Backs are going to have to rip up that contract and give Webb a contract similar to Jake Peavy.
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