He made $3M in 2008, in his first year of arb eligibility. That means something like $6M and $9M for his two remaining arb years, and $12.5M for each of the free agent years bought out. That seems decent for his age 32-33 seasons, though I wouldn't count on him moving over to 3B at that point.

They're willing to spend $160 million on Texiera, but only $40 million on Youk?

He did have to agree to release into the wild one of the small animals living in his beard.

Man...I saw the mention of this in another thread, then found an article about it, then saw this and read the comments, and the whole time I was reading "Jason Varitek" instead of "Kevin Youkilis". I even had the 4/$40 for Varitek half-justified in my mind, which was helped along by the surprising lack of outrage here about the deal.

Time to get back to work.

Another Red Sox player signs an under-market deal with the team.
Pedroia, Beckett, Wakefield, Lowell, Ortiz.
I thought that Youk, being Jewish himself, would be immune against Theo's mind control powers, but I was wrong.

I expect Jason Bay to sign an extension for 4/40 before the beginning of the season, leaving about $20 mil on the table.

Not so sure about Bay. If his defense is as bad as his 07-08 UZR (all post knee injury), 4/40 wouldn't be a very good deal. Although if you also toss out '07 in making offensive projections, the Sox would come out ahead again.

Love the contract for Youkilis.

The one I'm interested in is Papelbon - he can probably make a large amount of money in arbitration (though Gagne's arb deal was smaller than I remembered), but the Red Sox seem averse to locking him up longterm. That could be because Papelbon doesn't want to take a discount, because the Red Sox are afraid his shoulder will pop out of his socket again, because they just can't meet in the middle for more boring reasons, or what.

Another Red Sox player signs an under-market deal with the team.
Pedroia, Beckett, Wakefield, Lowell, Ortiz.

Are any of these below market other than Wakefield?

Lowell left money on the table in Philly. Beckett's is no question below market. Ortiz I would say so too, but I guess as a heavy, DH-type I can't be sure. Pedroia and Youks were arb-year type deals so its a more complex question.

I am of two minds about Youks' established ability level. On one hand, this was his best year by quite a bit, and it would be unrealistic to expect him to duplicate it. On the other hand, he often played at that level for good chunks of '06 & '07, only to go into severe funks for a month or three. Yes the funks have to be considered part of his E.A.L., but in '08 he basically avoided them.

[Yes, I used the words "chunks" and "funks" in the same sentence...]

There is no "market". He's not a free agent. The player has to weigh the theoretical market value, that could exist if he was a free agent now, against the possibility that he will become a more desirable, or less desirable, player at whatever future date he actually is a free agent.

One thing we know is that the Red Sox seem to be re-signing both Pedroia and Youkilis at the peak of their talent/value/stats. From the player's point of view, it seems like this is the time to "sell high", rather than negotiating the long-term contract last year or next year.

So that shows you how much you can benefit from having a player under your control, with the ability to offer him cost certainty in the future, as compared to being just one of several teams bidding for the player. Just about every team that signs their own player before he hits free agency seems at first to have gotten an "under-market deal". Michael Young being the glaring exception here.

Pedroia and Youks were arb-year type deals so its a more complex question.

Beckett's was an arb-year deal too.

The one I'm interested in is Papelbon - he can probably make a large amount of money in arbitration (though Gagne's arb deal was smaller than I remembered), but the Red Sox seem averse to locking him up longterm.

I thought Papelbon said he prefers to go year to year rather than signing a deal that buys out his arb years.

Yes, I used the words "chunks" and "funks" in the same sentence

I'd award you two Excellence Points for that.

Man vs. Food on the Travel Channel was at this burger place in Boston for last night's episode, and by chance Youkilis was eating there while they were filming. He seemed far, far less dooshy than he does during games. And he looked far less axe-murdererish too. It was like Bizarro Youk.

University of Hawaii Interior Design?

The current deal for Ortiz wasn't particularly good for the team. They already had a $7.75M option for 2007, so they were buying three additional years for $44.25M. He didn't earn that in 2008 and if he weren't already under contract the Red Sox could slip in Adam Dunn quite cheaply going forward.

That's some mighty expensive leadership!

Bad move, IMO. Youk was under club control through 2010 (his age 31 season), so he was basically cost-controlled for his entire prime. Why sign him now, coming off a career season? Especially when there is a very good in-house option sitting in Portland.

What makes you think they could get Dunn any cheaper than Ortiz? Last I heard his pricetag was 4 years, 56 million.

I don't think he'll necessarily get that much, but he's also not as good a hitter as Ortiz. My guess is he gets 3/36 or 3/39. I doubt he'll have to settle for less than Ibanez.

Youk was under club control through 2010 (his age 31 season), so he was basically cost-controlled for his entire prime. Why sign him now, coming off a career season?

Because they aren't paying for that career year? If you figure $15M for the next two seasons through arbitration, they are paying just $12.5M/year for the two years of free agency that they bought plus an option for one more with a very reasonable buyout. He's worth that much even in a post-prime season, even based on his 2006-2007 production.

Neither do I see much conflict with Lars Anderson:
2009 Lowell, Youkilis, Ortiz
2010 Lowell, Youkilis, Ortiz, Lars
2011 Youkilis, Lars, Ortiz
2012 ???, Youkilis, Lars

How confident are you that both Lowell and Ortiz will make it through the 2010 season in good shape? If either one succumbs to age and injuries, we'll need Lars to take over. (Possibly with Youkilis moving to third base for a year or two.) Lowell will definitely be gone after 2010, and the Red Sox may choose not to pick up the option on Ortiz.

I don't think he'll necessarily get that much, but he's also not as good a hitter as Ortiz. My guess is he gets 3/36 or 3/39. I doubt he'll have to settle for less than Ibanez.

Do you really think Ortiz will outhit Dunn going forward?

In any case, the annual figure on the Ortiz extension is deceptive. They paid him an additional $45M for an additional three years. Dunn will end up lower than that.

Well, even the FA years are at Konerko money, so this looks fine.

Petunia ... hmmm, don't remember this one happening. I'm having a hard time forming an opinion on that one. Presumably whatever market "correction" there is over the next couple years will have faded by 2013 when he would have become an FA and that $10 M will look just fine even if he's not some stud. But boy that's a lot of dough and a lot of years that you didn't have to commit to and 2B are generally pretty cheap. Well, I guess I can't say it's a bad deal.

Beckett's has turned out to be a very good deal and wasn't bad at the time though you do have to remember that pitchers weren't getting long-term, big-money deals way back then (he signed the extension mid-season 2006). It was Zito (and Dice-K kinda) in the 2006-7 offeseon who broke the Hampton/Brown barrier. But that same season, Escobar signed a 3/28.5 extension; Lackey had his 3 arb years plus an FA bought out for 4/26; Oswalt about to become an FA got 5/$73; Haren & Webb signed their ridiculously cheap buyout contracts around then too; Sabathia was less than $9 M; Santana was on a cheap deal. So I'm not sure you can say Beckett's contract was "below-market" given where the market was at the time.

Bad move, IMO. Youk was under club control through 2010 (his age 31 season), so he was basically cost-controlled for his entire prime. Why sign him now, coming off a career season? Especially when there is a very good in-house option sitting in Portland.

Because in two years 4/60 probably isn't enough to sign Youkilis

I also don't think Lars should factor into this at all. The only guys that are hard to get roughly fair value in trade for are the absurdly valuable guys like Pujols before he hit arbitration

Because in two years 4/60 probably isn't enough to sign Youkilis.

In two years, it will probably be time to say goodbye to him.

His value will never be higher than it is at this moment. While the deal is fine, I'd rather have dangled him to see what he'd fetch in a trade.

Today ESPN reported this by saying that the Sox had locked up another of their "young" players. Tee. Hee.

The current deal for Ortiz wasn't particularly good for the team. They already had a $7.75M option for 2007, so they were buying three additional years for $44.25M. He didn't earn that in 2008 and if he weren't already under contract the Red Sox could slip in Adam Dunn quite cheaply going forward.

That's some mighty expensive leadership!

Ortiz is way underpaid. He has 2/25 left with a 12.5 team option. His last three years were worth 10, 32 and 28 million in 2008 FA dolalrs. David Ortiz's contract is the kind teams would empty the farm to trade for.

Look at this post by AROM and this thread
.

Youkilis is worth something like 3.3 wins/year as a 1B and 5 wins/year as a 3B. That's between $15 to $20 mil/year on the open market. Call it 17 and using the 40/60/80 formula for arb, and Youk's value is something like 10/14/17/17, for a total of $58 mil. $18 mil is a very large discount for the security that he's gaining.


Globe says it's 4/41 with a $13 mil option. This is a fantastic deal for the Red Sox.

Valentine,

The Red Sox would have had to predict this market AND have been willing to be without a slugger in 08 in order to execute your dump Ortiz/get Dunn plan. That sounds both difficult to accomplish and suboptimal if accomplished.

It should also be noted that David Ortiz projects to be a notably better hitter than Adam Dunn.

2009 OPS, James / Chone / Marcel

913 / 846 / 871 - Dunn
966 / 956 / 937 - Papi

I really think there's a weird issue in the stathead community where people think Adam Dunn is a better hitter than he really is. Adam Dunn's a nice enough hitter, but he's not elite. He projects to hit maybe somewhat better than Kevin Youkilis, and he can't play defense.

JBH's point about Papi's contract is worth repeating. If you paid 3/45, and in even one of those seasons, the player is one of the best hitters in baseball, you have already "won" the contract.

Because in two years 4/60 probably isn't enough to sign Youkilis

First off, I disagree. Last season, his IsoP spiked by almost 100 point and his HR rate nearly doubled. It is entirely possible that, entering his age 30 season, he never touches that level of production again. In fact, I'd bet on it. It sure wasn't anticipated prior to this season.

Anyways, even if that is his market value after 2010, so what? I'm not going to shed a tear that the Sox might not get the priveledge to pay Kevin Youkilis $15 mil a year through his age 35 season. Prior to this year, he was simply a nice, cost-controlled asset that we could've let walk for a couple of draft picks in two years.

I'm not saying Kevin Youkilis isn't going to be a productive hitter for the next four years; I'm sure he is. But, the longer he remains at 1st, the harder it will be for him to move back up the defensive spectrum. If he's permanently entrenched at 1st, a position where it is really easy to find offense, I don't think he's going to be all that good of a player in his mid-30's.

In two years league average players are going to be getting $12 million a year. Youkilis wouldn't need to be a perennial MVP candidate to sign for 4/60

His last three years were worth 10, 32 and 28 million in 2008 FA dolalrs. David Ortiz's contract is the kind teams would empty the farm to trade for.

And Pat Burrell just signed for 2/$16.

In two years league average players are going to be getting $12 million a year. Youkilis wouldn't need to be a perennial MVP candidate to sign for 4/60

And Pat Burrell just signed for 2/$16.

Sorry, not buying it. We see constant predictions about skyrocketing salaries but it doesn't happen except for the very elite. A few years ago there were some real questionable contracts -- Soriano, Lee and of course Zito -- and now those teams would love to get rid of those contracts but nobody wants them. Derek Lowe just signed for the money that Hampton and Mussina got 8 years ago. Less than what Randy Johnson got 5 years ago. 8 years ago, AROD signed his record deal and 8 years later only one player has ever beaten that one -- AROD.

I don't know what's wrong with your models but something is.

But, the longer he remains at 1st, the harder it will be for him to move back up the defensive spectrum.

He played quite a bit of 3B last year, and most of the defensive metrics paint him as a pretty good 3Bman. Even if his defense at 3B drops a bit he should be fine there if he stays healthy.

And Pat Burrell just signed for 2/$16.

Can Pat Burrell play 3B? Can he even play 1B?

I normally make it a policy not to help the Red Sox in any way, but if I were in charge of the Angels I'd be happy to take that crappy Ortiz contract off your hands so you can get Adam Dunn.

And Pat Burrell just signed for 2/$16.

Those things on the ends of the players' arms are called gloves.

Sadly, that line only applies to Youkilis - the issue with Ortiz is that he's a way, way better hitter than Pat Burrell. Fangraphs salaries past three years:

09.2, 08.7, 11.6 - Burrell
08.2, 15.8, 24.8 - Youkilis
21.7, 27.3, 09.1 - Ortiz

Again, I don't really understand where this sense comes from that Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn are comparable hitters to David Ortiz. They aren't. They're much worse than he is.

I really think there's a weird issue in the stathead community where people think Adam Dunn is a better hitter than he really is.

I support signing Dunn because I think Mike Lowell is not going to be able to play very much this season and I don't want a left side of the infield of Jed Lowrie and Julio Lugo. I also think Dunn is a more attractive acquisition than you do for decidedly un-stathead reasons.

I think he would thrive in Boston. With this group of guys, playing for a contender, in this city, I think there is a decent chance he would work his tail off and have a real shot of reverting back to the player he was when he was 24 and 25. At the very least I think Boston's FO should effectively interview Dunn to gauge whether or not they think he might rededicate himself in such a way that his 2004-2005 performance would once again be possible.

Call it 17 and using the 40/60/80 formula for arb, and Youk's value is something like 10/14/17/17, for a total of $58 mil.

Sorry, but I'm not buying the idea that Youkilis would have gotten Ryan Howard money in arbitration this year and next. Not saying whether he's worth it, just saying he wouldn't get it. And isn't the discount the whole point of buying out arb years in the first place?

Ortiz is way underpaid. He has 2/25 left with a 12.5 team option. His last three years were worth 10, 32 and 28 million in 2008 FA dolalrs. David Ortiz's contract is the kind teams would empty the farm to trade for.

So he was worth $60M for the two years they already had him under contract (irrelevant to the discussion of whether his NEW contract is worth the money), and was worth $10M in the first year of his $45M/3yr extension. If he rebounds to his 2006-2007 level, it will justify the deal. If he remains at his 2008 level it will not. It has nothing to do with whether or not I believe Dunn is a better hitter than Ortiz (I obviously don't). It is a question of whether or not Ortiz will be healthy enough to perform at a high level in 2009-2010.

The Red Sox would have had to predict this market AND have been willing to be without a slugger in 08 in order to execute your dump Ortiz/get Dunn plan. That sounds both difficult to accomplish and suboptimal if accomplished.

When was it elevated to the status of a "plan"? I'm just saying that they already had him under contract for all of his productive seasons. Thus far the extension has overpaid for a 2008 season that began with a horrendous slump and ended with a nagging injury, and I have some misgivings about his healthy going forward. I'm amazed that I'm the only one here who isn't absolutely convinced of his health and continuing excellence.

JBH's point about Papi's contract is worth repeating. If you paid 3/45, and in even one of those seasons, the player is one of the best hitters in baseball, you have already "won" the contract.

Of course. Maybe that will happen in 2009, if he is healthy.

Sorry, but I'm not buying the idea that Youkilis would have gotten Ryan Howard money in arbitration this year and next. Not saying whether he's worth it, just saying he wouldn't get it. And isn't the discount the whole point of buying out arb years in the first place?

I'm told that a player's previous salary plays a significant role in the arbitration hearings, thus somebody beginning from a $3M base can expect a lower award than somebody beginning from a $5M base. Any truth to that? I had been guessing at $7M for 2009 and $10M for 2010. In fact he signed for $6M in 2009 and $9M in 2010, with a $1M bonus. I agree that $15M-$17M is a more reasonable estimate than $24M for the next two years. Youkilis may have left $10M on the table, not $18M.