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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Spector: Yanks hit Mark on talent, but long term Teix-mess looms

Take a gonder at Jesse’s latest…

But here’s the thing: Teixeira is not as good a hitter right now as either A-Rod or Manny. That might be the lightest insult of all-time, but it’s important when considering a player who will earn in excess of $20 million a year. Where Sabathia is a proven ace and arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Teixeira has made one All-Star appearance in his career, has only one 40-homer season to his name and his career-high OPS+ of 151 (this year) is only one point above the figure posted by A-Rod in an “off” year and four points below Ramirez’s career figure.

The Yankees already have Sabathia, Burnett and A-Rod through 2012, with a $14 million option on Robinson Cano for that year. Add Teixeira to that, and it leaves the Yankees vulnerable if somehow their cash printing press ever breaks down.

...Teixeira will be the Yankees’ first baseman well into the next decade, but the Yankees already have a first baseman playing catcher for three more years in Jorge Posada, and just traded for a first baseman, Nick Swisher, who now goes to the outfield. For a team with so many other veterans, such as Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, does it really make sense to take away first base as an avenue of career transition?

Repoz Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:27 PM | 49 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:36 PM (#3037266)
Damon, Matsui and Nady could all be free agents after 2009.
Swisher can easily reside in left field or right field.
And Posada will most likely spend significant time at DH.

Finally, is the guy really suggesting that the Yankees should stay away from Teixeira so they can hide a couple of light-hitting, injury-prone, soon-to-be-free agent outfielders there? Really? Even Tommy LaSorda couldn't come up with something this dumb
   2. villainx Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:37 PM (#3037267)
I agree with 1k5 except for the last bit.
   3. The Good Face Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:42 PM (#3037273)
Finally, is the guy really suggesting that the Yankees should stay away from Teixeira so they can hide a couple of light-hitting, injury-prone, soon-to-be-free agent outfielders there? Really? Even Tommy LaSorda couldn't come up with something this dumb


This.

Posada's contract isn't looking too great right now, but is he even capable of playing an adequate 1B? I figure the Yanks milk as much catching out of him as humanly possible, then try stash him at DH if he's even remotely useful with the bat at that point.
   4. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:44 PM (#3037275)
Joel Sherman was suggesting in his blog that the Yankees jumped on Teixeira (so to speak) because they didn't like the free agent market after 09, when they'd need to replace several free agents. And I reckon Cashman & co. are just not sold on Gardner's hall of fame potential... Sherman was also saying the Yankees will likely look to trade one of their outfielders, most likely Matsui.
   5. Tripon Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:51 PM (#3037286)
Matsui has a full no trade clause. Swisher and Nady are easily more tradable. If anything, the Yankees will just splurge on Matt Holiday in 09, and call it quits.
   6. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:53 PM (#3037292)
Wow, this is the most clever headline I've ever seen. Give that man a promotion.
   7. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:55 PM (#3037296)
He probably didn't even write the headline; his editor did
   8. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 23, 2008 at 11:02 PM (#3037304)
So he's already gotten his promotion!
   9. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: December 23, 2008 at 11:04 PM (#3037307)
Spector: Yanks hit Mark on talent, but long term Teix-mess looms

I cannot possibly groan loud enough.
   10. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken (Dewey is a slacker) Posted: December 23, 2008 at 11:09 PM (#3037316)
Joel Sherman was suggesting in his blog that the Yankees jumped on Teixeira (so to speak) because they didn't like the free agent market after 09, when they'd need to replace several free agents.
I was saying this a couple of weeks ago. If Holliday hits great in the AL with the A's, then he's a good target next season, but outside of him, there's not that much that's appealing out there next offseason.
   11. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: December 23, 2008 at 11:10 PM (#3037317)
We'll soon See-See if Yanks take a Sabathia on long-term deal

Will Yanks be Burnett by A Jay?
   12. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: December 23, 2008 at 11:21 PM (#3037327)
Outside of the Angels, Red Sox and in some ways the Nats and Orioles, nobody else was in the running for Teixeira, so I doubt the other 25 teams in baseball are that upset about this signing.

However, one down side of this signing for other baseball teams is that it decreases the possibility of the Yanks doing something I thought they were going to do if their FA signings stayed at Sabathia and Burnet: to serve as a vacuum cleaner to hoover up bad contracts from other teams.

It's no secret that with the world economy in dire straits, many teams will be interested in shedding payroll. However, if the Yanks are not buying (and all these FA signings decrease their flexibility), then that option probably closes off, and that surely should worry a number of teams (particularly in the NL, who are not competing in any direct way against the Yanks).
   13. Zac Schmitt Posted: December 23, 2008 at 11:48 PM (#3037356)
but the Yankees already have a first baseman playing catcher for three more years in Jorge Posada, and just traded for a first baseman, Nick Swisher, who now goes to the outfield


with all due respect to nick swisher, the difference between him and tex is considerable. and as much as i'd *like* the idea of trying out posada (or even jeter) at first to keep their bats in the lienup, there's no reason to not improve the team on the off chance one of them might be able to handle first.
   14. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 24, 2008 at 12:23 AM (#3037374)
It's no secret that with the world economy in dire straits, many teams will be interested in shedding payroll. However, if the Yanks are not buying (and all these FA signings decrease their flexibility), then that option probably closes off, and that surely should worry a number of teams (particularly in the NL, who are not competing in any direct way against the Yanks).

Aside from picking up players that they were interested in having on their roster, have the Yankees ever taken over a bad contract out of the goodness of their hearts? Are you suggesting that had they not signed Sabathia, Burnett, and Teixeira, that they'd be bending over for the Giants (as an example) to take on Zito's contract just to be nice?
   15. AROM Posted: December 24, 2008 at 12:50 AM (#3037390)
Looking at total value of the contracts they are playing under the Yankees have:

1B Tex, 180 million
2B Cano, 30 million
SS Jeter, 189 million
3B A-Rod, 275 million

674 million dollars. So in the last century the benchmark has not quite grown from the "$100,000 infield" of McInnis, Collins, Barry, and Baker to the first "Billion dollar infield".

But we're close. When's Chase Utley a free agent?
   16. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 24, 2008 at 12:54 AM (#3037392)
When's Chase Utley a free agent?

Not till after 2013, but Jose Reyes is one after 2011.

By the way, Chone, I love the baseballprojection website. Is there a glossary somewhere? I'd like to know what the numbers mean.
   17. Yankee Redneck is a Pinhead. Posted: December 24, 2008 at 01:00 AM (#3037398)
Aside from picking up players that they were interested in having on their roster, have the Yankees ever taken over a bad contract out of the goodness of their hearts? Are you suggesting that had they not signed Sabathia, Burnett, and Teixeira, that they'd be bending over for the Giants (as an example) to take on Zito's contract just to be nice?

The Yankees motivations aren't as important as the practical effects of their being able to take onerous contracts off the hands of other teams. Would anyone else have taken the oft-injured Kevin Brown and his $15 million salary from the Dodgers? Were other franchises lining up to absorb Alex Rodriguez's ill-advised Texas contract?
   18. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 24, 2008 at 01:10 AM (#3037401)
Were other franchises lining up to absorb Alex Rodriguez's ill-advised Texas contract?

If they didn't have to trade an all star like Soriano in return, I bet plenty of teams would have taken his contract.
   19. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 24, 2008 at 01:20 AM (#3037408)
If they didn't have to trade an all star like Soriano in return, I bet plenty of teams would have taken his contract.

CJ Henry is no all-star.
   20. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: December 24, 2008 at 01:23 AM (#3037410)
Examples of contracts the Yanks took on for pennies on the dollar in recent years: Kevin Brown (damned Jeff Weaver), Abreu, I-Rod last year.

The Cameron for Mely trade, had it happened, would have been a good example of the above.
   21. AROM Posted: December 24, 2008 at 02:16 AM (#3037428)
Ivan, I'm working on an how to use page. Thanks, glad you like the site.
   22. Teufel's Graveyard Posted: December 24, 2008 at 02:37 AM (#3037436)
The Cameron for Mely trade, had it happened, would have been a good example of the above.


And that's why it didn't happen. Cashman was used to taking other team's big money players and not giving back what many would consider good value. I don't know if Cashman didn't properly understand Melvin's intent to get back value for Cameron or if he was just used to making a low offer.
   23. Darren Posted: December 24, 2008 at 02:41 AM (#3037437)
The Yankees motivations aren't as important as the practical effects of their being able to take onerous contracts off the hands of other teams. Would anyone else have taken the oft-injured Kevin Brown and his $15 million salary from the Dodgers? Were other franchises lining up to absorb Alex Rodriguez's ill-advised Texas contract?



The Red Sox were. But Texas decided they'd rather pay a big chunk of it themselves.
   24. Yankee Redneck is a Pinhead. Posted: December 24, 2008 at 03:03 AM (#3037442)
The Red Sox were.

The impoverished Red Sox?
   25. Darren Posted: December 24, 2008 at 03:38 AM (#3037450)
Boston Red Sox.
   26. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: December 24, 2008 at 03:40 AM (#3037453)
Via mlbtraderumors.com: YANKS SIGN CASH TO MINOR LEAGUE DEAL
He only cost them money.
I wonder if this was a preemptive strike to remove one of Boston's options at catcher.
   27. Darren Posted: December 24, 2008 at 03:42 AM (#3037455)
Wow, the Yanks are drinking that milkshake allllll up.
   28. The District Attorney Posted: December 24, 2008 at 03:44 AM (#3037457)
Damn, I was hoping they signed actual money. It would in fact be perfect timing for that.
   29. rfloh Posted: December 24, 2008 at 03:44 AM (#3037458)
But Texas decided they'd rather pay a big chunk of it themselves.


Yep. What as "ill advised" was the Rangers deciding they HAD to dump ARod. Or that they HAD to grossly overpay Park Chan Ho.
   30. AROM Posted: December 24, 2008 at 04:02 AM (#3037470)
I've put up a user's guide on my site.

Cash was an option as a starting catcher. He's such a terrible hitter, his projection is under .200. When I saw that I thought it couldn't be right, he hit .220 last year, about as good as Varitek. Did I forget to regress or something? But 2008 was the only season in the majors that he hit above .200, his career average is .184, and he was even under .200 his last 2 minor league seasons (covering over 400 AB).

David Ross though, I don't understand how they let him go away so cheap. I'm glad they missed that boat though, as their options are pretty limited now.
   31. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 24, 2008 at 04:54 AM (#3037492)
AROM, to make your projection site even awesomer, the only thing you are missing is the ability to view overall player lists, rather than going team by team to see individuals. A huge listed sorted by R150 would be awesome.

Btw, I truly love the minimalist design.
   32. RollingWave Posted: December 24, 2008 at 05:03 AM (#3037498)
I was saying this a couple of weeks ago. If Holliday hits great in the AL with the A's, then he's a good target next season, but outside of him, there's not that much that's appealing out there next offseason.

Carl Crawford

As for long term on Teix, again, I bring this up.

Carlos Delgado (935)
Kent Hrbek (925)
Fred McGriff (913)
Jim Thome (911)
Will Clark (910)
Jeff Bagwell (909)
Willie McCovey (906) *
Richie Sexson (904)
Shawn Green (901)
Paul Konerko (899)

There's some risk there, but I'm pretty sure Teix's taleent is closer in terms of talent level to McCovey / Delgado / Thome / McGriff / Bagwell then the rest of the guys on the list. in this case, I'm pretty confident in him going foward. he's got a very good shot at going over 500 dinger for his career.
   33. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 24, 2008 at 05:50 AM (#3037529)
David Ross though, I don't understand how they let him go away so cheap. I'm glad they missed that boat though, as their options are pretty limited now.


I don't know what the deal with Ross is. I argued with Reds fans at another site last year who couldn't wait to ship him out of town and was glad to see the Sox pick him up. I know he's not going to hit for a high BA, but it seems like he does enough other things well enough.

How's his defense AROM?
   34. Steve Treder Posted: December 24, 2008 at 07:16 AM (#3037553)
What as "ill advised" was the Rangers deciding they HAD to dump ARod. Or that they HAD to grossly overpay Park Chan Ho.

Bingo. The Yankees shrewdly took advantage of the Rangers getting a case of the yips.
   35. Jeff K. Posted: December 24, 2008 at 10:33 AM (#3037580)
There's some risk there, but I'm pretty sure Teix's taleent is closer in terms of talent level to McCovey / Delgado / Thome / McGriff / Bagwell then the rest of the guys on the list. in this case, I'm pretty confident in him going foward. he's got a very good shot at going over 500 dinger for his career.

Don't you dare imply that Will Clark is in the group with Hrbek, Sexson, Green, and Konerko instead of Stretch/Sit/HeyGuys/CrimeDog/Bagwell. I had to put up with him getting dropped off the HOF ballot like a ####### scrub, no more. Clark had an elbow problem that sapped power and he never fully recovered from, but even with that, retiring with gas still in the tank, missing out on both strike years in basically the last of his real prime, and playing through pain, he's got a higher OPS+ than McGriff, even with Delgado, and is 10 points behind McCovey/Bagwell/Thome while making up ground on basically everyone on both lists for defense and all but McGriff, Hrbek, and Thome in postseason play. He's 9 OPS+ ahead of Hrbek, 17 ahead of Green and Sexson, and 21 ahead of Konerko.
   36. AJM Posted: December 24, 2008 at 12:15 PM (#3037585)
Jeff, did you see Clark got easily elected to the HOM on the first ballot?
   37. AROM Posted: December 24, 2008 at 01:24 PM (#3037614)
D'oh in post 30 I meant to say Cash was never an option as a starting catcher. That would go better with what I wrote.

Ross has done well in the easily measurable aspects of catcher defense. Baseball ref can give you that data. Maybe pitchers hate him or something. Seems to me he can help a team hitting .210
   38. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: December 24, 2008 at 01:46 PM (#3037623)
I was saying this a couple of weeks ago. If Holliday hits great in the AL with the A's, then he's a good target next season, but outside of him, there's not that much that's appealing out there next offseason.

Carl Crawford


Not a free agent. There's a cheap option that's sure to be picked up.
   39. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 24, 2008 at 02:28 PM (#3037659)
What's a "tay-mess"?
   40. AROM Posted: December 24, 2008 at 02:42 PM (#3037678)
Jason Bay. He and Holliday are pretty similar, though it seems Holliday is a better defender. I think the biggest difference between the two of them is the parks they have played in.
   41. AROM Posted: December 24, 2008 at 02:44 PM (#3037679)
And what do you know - they have identical career OPS+ of 131.
   42. RJ in TO Posted: December 24, 2008 at 02:49 PM (#3037684)
Cash was an option as a starting catcher. He's such a terrible hitter, his projection is under .200. When I saw that I thought it couldn't be right, he hit .220 last year, about as good as Varitek.


That projection wouldn't surprise me at all - Kevin Cash has the worst looking swing that I've ever seen on a major league hitter (including pitchers), and always has. I'm not sure if it's changed in recent years, but when he was in Toronto, it was just painfully choppy - it almost looked like he was starting and stopping halfway through his swing.

I don't pretend to be a scout, but he's the only guy I've ever seen who honestly looked like he had no idea where this strange club he was holding came from.
   43. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: December 24, 2008 at 02:54 PM (#3037693)
it almost looked like he was starting and stopping halfway through his swing.

I guess we know how things would've turned out if Barkley followed Jordan's example...
   44. AROM Posted: December 24, 2008 at 02:57 PM (#3037697)
Some good hitters can look horrible. Mike Napoli - he's got a great eye, throw the ball a quarter inch off the plate and he can lay off it, but his hand-eye coordination has got to be at the bare minimum level that can still play in MLB. Opposite of Tony Gwynn. Sometime you watch him swing and miss and think he could do better with his eyes closed. But when he gets a hold of one, he's pretty strong. Interesting and valuable combination.
   45. RJ in TO Posted: December 24, 2008 at 03:05 PM (#3037710)
Some good hitters can look horrible.


I agree that some good hitters can look horrible, but Cash's bad swing also has that pause in it which kills any momentum he may have. Honestly, if I were to ever teach someone how to swing a bat, I'd start by showing them a video of Clark and Olerud, and tell them "Do this". I'd then follow it up by showing them a video of Kevin Cash, and tell them "Never do this".
   46. The District Attorney Posted: December 24, 2008 at 03:06 PM (#3037713)
Don't you dare imply that Will Clark is in the group with Hrbek, Sexson, Green, and Konerko instead of Stretch/Sit/HeyGuys/CrimeDog/Bagwell.
Shouldn't that last one be "Toilet Seat"?

Via mlbtraderumors.com: YANKS SIGN CASH TO MINOR LEAGUE DEAL
He only cost them money.
Cash... which is as good as money!
   47. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: December 24, 2008 at 05:11 PM (#3037831)
Spector: Yanks hit Mark on talent, but long term Teix-mess looms

Little known facts about him are Teix-arcana.

IMs to his phone are Teix-messages.
   48. robinred Posted: December 25, 2008 at 09:06 AM (#3038145)
Finally, is the guy really suggesting that the Yankees should stay away from Teixeira so they can hide a couple of light-hitting, injury-prone, soon-to-be-free agent outfielders there? Really? Even Tommy LaSorda couldn't come up with something this dumb.


This discussion was had before. The arguments against Teixeira were that he reduces roster/payroll flexibility, really isn't all that great and certainly won't be in about three years. The arguments for him were/is that the Yankees numerous in-house semi-options for 1b all sucked and the Yankees can spend whatever they want at any time on any player without having it affect other parts of their operation.
   49. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: December 25, 2008 at 09:57 AM (#3038147)
I felt bad for the pitcher on all 3 of Cash's HRs in 2008, because that's just gotta be embarrassing.
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