Francesspool, before the season started...."All those sabretic guys are wrong. The Rays will not win 65 games this year...where are they going to get their wins from playing in the AL East?"

I'm sure some right wing freak in Florida is going to attribute their improvement to the dropping of the word "Devil".

Dioner Navarro: Tony Gwynn or David Newhan?

Curious to see if the attendance improves at all. I mean, is there a large enough fanbase to support them?

I'm curious to see if they're within a few games of first as the deadline approaches if they go for it. One of their bushel of top prospects and a medium for Dunn? Would it be worth it? I think it might, even if he'd walk at the end of the year. I mean, the RF defense can't really get all that much worse anyway.

“It’s a little disappointing right now,” Maddon said.

So's your mom.

Still lots of early-season warning signs for this team though. Upton (and Navarro and Hinske) are the only above league-average hitters so far (and overall they are at a flat 100). Their ERA+ stands at a solid 107, but they have 3 starters under 86 (one of whom now sits in favor of Kazmir of course) -- it's been an amazing bullpen performance which simply can't hold up I don't think.

Matt Garza's looking pretty scary -- 11 Ks and 13 BBs in 26 IP. Maybe that will be a lose-lose trade.

I have to admit I had no idea they were that good and I bet most of Tampa doesn't know that either, hence the bad attendance.

The Rays have been meh for so long it's going to take more than a good couple weeks to get fans coming.

The Rays have been meh for so long

Now that's an understatement!

The Jays have been meh. The Brewers have been meh. The Rays have been bleccchhhhh. I mean, the excerpt says it all:

they are six games over .500 for the first time in franchise history

Wow...

I'm sure some right wing freak in Florida is going to attribute their improvement to the dropping of the word "Devil".

Anita Bryant says hi.

Still lots of early-season warning signs for this team though. Upton (and Navarro and Hinske) are the only above league-average hitters so far (and overall they are at a flat 100). Their ERA+ stands at a solid 107, but they have 3 starters under 86 (one of whom now sits in favor of Kazmir of course) -- it's been an amazing bullpen performance which simply can't hold up I don't think.

But they're also getting less than expected performance from Bartlett, Crawford, and Iwamura so far and it's pretty likely that Pena will get his stuff straightened out to hit .240 minimum. It's not like everything is going right across the board for them.

Regardless of what Garza does, and he hasn't been impressive at all except for last night, it's not going to be a lose-lose trade because Bartlett's defense has been really important to the the pitching improvement so far.

The reason the attendance went down so much from the April games is that most of the Yankee fans stayed home because their team is mediocre right now. The pro-Rays attendance isn't going to jump immediately, if they keep winning or at least stay at .500 then they should see gains towards the second half of the season.

Francesspool, before the season started...."All those sabretic guys are wrong. The Rays will not win 65 games this year...where are they going to get their wins from playing in the AL East?"

The point of this story? REPOZ HATES MIKE FRANCESSA!

lose- lose trade is silly talk. Bartlett is an excellent player. Delmon Young may not have had much value to this team anyway. Even if he eventually reaches a Hof peak all the Rays gave up is this year and the next four. He's yet to show any major league power. Looking like the 96-98 Garret Anderson to me. This team will be scary once their bats get going.

“Always, beating the Evil Empire is awesome,” Jonny Gomes said.

Nice to see he's playing by the Larry Lucchino handbook.

I assume this will lead to increased national TV exposure for both clubs.

I assume this will lead to increased national TV exposure for both clubs.
Does Florida play the Red Sox or Yankees this year? Otherwise, they won't be shown.

Measured by FIP, the worst pitcher on the Rays has been Garza at 4.75. The team-wide FIP provides early impressionistic evidence for the synergy between pitching and defence.

J.P. Howell is a big part of the bullpen improvement. It's not as though he comes totally out of nowhere, after an excellent college and minor league career. If one of the starters goes down, he's next up.

Does Florida play the Red Sox or Yankees this year? Otherwise, they won't be shown.

And if the Marlins are fortunate enough to reach the playoffs, we'll hear the ESPN analysts talk about how no one in America knows who these guys are.

And if the Marlins are fortunate enough to reach the playoffs, we'll hear the ESPN analysts talk about how no one in America knows who these guys are.

How could America know them? After all, the payroll is so low that they can't possibly be worth knowing, right?

Like usual, there are two beasts in the East. Who would have thought it would be the Rays and Red Sox? (besides me and Nate Silver, that is). I was kind of pissed off when the Angels ran into this powerhouse, but I'll root for them when they play anyone else. The Yankees are an afterthought at this point. Payroll or not, they are a mediocre team. I almost feel sorry for them, but not quite. Right now it's best for the Yankees to take their beatings, rebuild, get some new blood and come back net year.

How could America know them? After all, the payroll is so low that they can't possibly be worth knowing, right?


I'm not sure payroll matters. We didn't know anything about the '06 Tigers either, and they had some decent salaries.

ESPN showing the Yankees/Red Sox games ad nauseum wouldn't even be *that* bad if they continued to show games on the alternate ESPN channels as they did up until a couple years ago. Living in CT, I might as well not even have ESPN, since it's on black-out every other night.

Matt Garza's looking pretty scary -- 11 Ks and 13 BBs in 26 IP. Maybe that will be a lose-lose trade.

No.

Garza's numbers come from two bad starts at the beginning of the year, after which he went on the DL. He returned to give up 3 ER in 5 IP against Boston, then 2 ER in 6 IP against Baltimore, 1 ER in 6.2 against Toronto, and then finally 0 ER in 7 against NY. Since coming off the DL he has improved with every outing. His strikeout totals aren't up there yet, but there is absolutely nothing bad about Matt Garza. He is going to be fine.

The Yankees are an afterthought at this point.

So's your mom. The Yankees are lingering around .500 even with two of their best hitters rehabbing injuries, and while they try to sort out 40% of their rotation. I don't see how anyone can not expect them to find their mid-summer groove once A-Rod comes back and rattle off a huge string of wins like they did last year. And the year before. And the year before that.

I guess hope springs eternal, but I get the feeling this is not the year to bury the Yankees as afterthought. If they were dropping games hand over fist there might be good reason to bury them, but a .500 record when they're running at half-speed doesn't bode well for the naysayers.

Living in CT, I might as well not even have ESPN, since it's on black-out every other night.

Try having Dish Network in NY. Sunday's Yankees-Tigers game was on TBS nationwide...except in the NY area, where it was also on YES. DN doesn't carry YES, but I could still watch the game on TBS, right? Wrong. Even though DN doesn't have YES, YES still has an exclusive: if you live in the NY area and the game's on YES, you either watch YES or nothing even if your system doesn't carry it.

Greedy ba$tards. Just another reason to hate the Yankees.

The Yankees are now in the dynasty decline phase that the Braves lived in from 2000-04 (yes, I know - the Braves weren't a "dynasty" and weren't as accomplished as the Yankees of 96-present fame, but I think the analogy holds). They aren't nearly as good as they're made out to be and, so, people think they're not good. But they're good enough, experienced enough, and tough enough to hang in there. They'll surprise you by scraping by and pushing into a playoff berth that was expected pre-season then doubted after a slow start. Then they'll get bounced early by a superior team.

I feel like there's been a point in each of the last several seasons that the Yankees dynasty has been pronounced dead.

As much as I'd like to throw the first shovelfull of dirt on their coffin, they aren't done. I still think they are the team to beat in the AL.

One of their bushel of top prospects and a medium for Dunn? Would it be worth it?

If there's one thing they're not going to need during the stretch run, it's a 1B / nominal OF, especially one as costly as Dunn. With the Gross / Hinske / Gomes trifecta manning RF & DH (assuming Floyd gets hurt again), they're set. (Tho I'm not expecting Hinske to remain the best hitter of those 3 going forward). I imagine a playoff-run pickup would involve either a mid-tier starter or more bullpen help. Or they'll just call up some ROY hopeful & blow his eligibility on the way to a wildcard berth. Here's hoping!

The Yankees do have a tougher road this year than last, but "mediocre" is hyperbolic. They have scored fewer runs than league average this year, and there is absolutely no reason to expect that to continue.

Before the season, I had the Yankees and Red Sox at 93 wins and the Rays at 85. As the Rays have survived the start of the season, you'd have to push their estimate up and the Yankees down. I wouldn't call any of these clubs "beasts".

If there's one thing they're not going to need during the stretch run, it's a 1B / nominal OF, especially one as costly as Dunn. With the Gross / Hinske / Gomes trifecta manning RF & DH (assuming Floyd gets hurt again), they're set.

They do have their options. Also Justin Ruggiano and Dan Johnson in AAA. They've got plenty of guys who project to give you a 100-110 OPS+ or a .450 SLG. They probably could use a guy like Dunn though, a real slugger, though I wouldn't want to give up too much in prospects for a half season rental.

> ...except in the NY area

Move anywhere else in the country and you'll get to see pretty much the same number of Yankees games...

I don't think they're for real this year. They've just started hot. The hitting will slump and the pitching will regress and get injured. Next year they are for real, but this year they seem like just a .500 team to me.

I'm not sure payroll matters. We didn't know anything about the '06 Tigers either, and they had some decent salaries.

I was mocking the opening day article about the Marlins' "insulting" and "embarassing" low payroll.

The hitting will slump and the pitching will regress and get injured.

These have both already happened. Their team OPS+ is down from 103 last year to 101 this year and given the age of most of their guys, you probably would have expected that to go up. Pena (OPS+ 96, career OPS+ 123), Iwamura (OPS+ 83, career 100), Bartlett (OPS+ 60, career 84), and Crawford (OPS+ 100, career 103, over 110 the last three seasons), in particular, are all well below what you'd expect them to be hitting so far.

They've also already had two of their expected top three starting pitchers spend time on the DL.

I'm not sure I see how these are warning signs of impending regression.

They seem like a .500 team. Why can't you just be satisfied with that?

I was mocking the opening day article about the Marlins' "insulting" and "embarassing" low payroll.


Understood. The larger point is that ESPN's myopia is payroll-blind.

And the Marlins (23-15) lead the NL East

The Twins are in first place, too. Too bad they don't have a true ace they can count on.

Also, in March I said that I thought people were a year early on the Rays really taking a step up. It looks like I was incorrect. Unfortunately, my relatively pessimistic views of the teams I personally root for, CIN and SD, appear to have been on the mark.

Too bad they don't have a true ace they can count on.

Livan throws an eephus in your direction, with disgust.

Any chance 6-1 Livan Hernandez makes the All-Star team?

Any chance 6-1 Livan Hernandez makes the All-Star team?

I don't see it happening. At this point his ERA is pretty unimpressive, and teams are hitting over .300 against him. He's pretty clearly the worst performing of the six 6-win pitchers in the AL, and there are guys with fewer wins (Greinke, Marcum) who probably deserve it more. I would think the Twins will be represented by at least Mauer if not Morneau, so he won't have to go.

There are several weeks left and anything's possible, but where it stands right now I wouldn't pick him.

With the Gross / Hinske / Gomes trifecta manning RF & DH

You stop yourself from getting Adam Dunn because you already have Eric Hinske and Gabe Gross?

The Yankees do have a tougher road this year than last

I do not think that this is true. The Yankees have already played all their games against Cleveland and Detroit (excepting one rain out against Detroit), and many against Boston and Tampa Bay. They've had exactly one series each against Baltimore, Chicago, Seattle, and Kansas City. Their toughest part of their schedule is likely behind them, they've had their two most valuable hitters out for extended periods of time, and, most importantly, they aren't 14.5 games out of first.

The Yanks are three back on the loss side (four overall). They are about to enter a stretch of Baltimore, Seattle, Baltimore, Minnesota, Toronto, Kansas City. Let's see where they are after that.

With the Gross / Hinske / Gomes trifecta manning RF & DH

You stop yourself from getting Adam Dunn because you already have Eric Hinske and Gabe Gross?

You stop yourself from getting Adam Dunn if the cost is too steep. Reading (the entire post) is fundamental.

Since returning from the DL, Garza has 9 Ks and 9 BBs in 25 IP. That's a nice low walk-rate but K/BB ratios of 1 are not promising. He has given up only 1 HR in that time though, which is good.

Jason Bartlett -- nice fielder, 60 OPS+, slugging under 300. And for whatever reason, his plate discipline has disappeared. So far, might as well have had Adam Everett.

I find it funny that someone responds to my "may be lose-lose" comment by telling me how little the Rays gave up in Delmon Young. Well, duh, that was one of the potential "loses" in "lose-lose".

The Rays offense might improve. Navarro is headed for a decline -- but there is reason to think he's now substantially better than his career numbers. Pena will likely improve, but probably only into his typical 110ish OPS+ range. Crawford will likely improve to his typical performance. Longoria is an unknown. Upton will likely fall back some. Hinske will fall back a lot. And please don't anyone pretend that Jonny Gomes is primed to bust out (K-rate substantially improved though). Anyway, overall, I don't think this offense is going to improve substantially as the year goes on -- though mainly that will come down to what level Longoria and Navarro are really at right now.

The lesson I've learned over the last few seasosn is that the Yankees shouldn't be declared out of it until they are mathematically eliminated.

I find it funny that someone responds to my "may be lose-lose" comment by telling me how little the Rays gave up in Delmon Young. Well, duh, that was one of the potential "loses" in "lose-lose".

I thought you meant "lose-lose" in the sense that the Rays lost in two ways, by losing something that turned out to be very valuable, and by gaining something that turned out to be worse than they thought.