...and levski's prediction from a few weeks back about rj flourishing in the nl west comes one step closer to being vindicated.

I proposed a Johnson for Chad Tracy and Dustin Nippert trade a while back. It was shot down as "the Yankees will never trade Unit." I thought it was a rather reasonable trade myself which will help both teams. Let's see if the proposed players are similar to what I think it'll take to get Johnson.

I proposed a Johnson for Chad Tracy and Dustin Nippert trade a while back. It was shot down as "the Yankees will never trade Unit." I thought it was a rather reasonable trade myself which will help both teams. Let's see if the proposed players are similar to what I think it'll take to get Johnson.

I proposed a Johnson for Chad Tracy and Dustin Nippert trade a while back. It was shot down as "the Yankees will never trade Unit." I thought it was a rather reasonable trade myself which will help both teams. Let's see if the proposed players are similar to what I think it'll take to get Johnson.

Oh hell no.

Let the Yanks keep Randy Johnson, and make them sign the asshat that is Shea Hillenbrand (former Diamondback too)

Oh god that would be perfect

...and levski's prediction from a few weeks back about rj flourishing in the nl west comes one step closer to being vindicated.

Buy RJ never left the nl west.

From the article:

The baseball official said the Yankees do not want to pay any of Johnson's salary as part of a deal. The Diamondbacks are considered to have one of the deeper farm systems, so the Yankees could continue their trend that started when they moved Gary Sheffield and Jaret Wright for players to restock their system.

The Yankees aren't going to get major league talent if they won't pay any of RJ's salary. I don't think Tracy is going to NY, and Tracy AND Nippert for RJ, especially if the Yankees won't take on any salary, is preposterous. I wouldn't give up that much for Big Ugly, and I'm arguably one of his biggest (and onliest? LOL) fans.

The Dbacks have a deep enough farm system so they could offer a couple of guys of the Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson, Greg Smith, Matt Green group. But that's probably about it.

Fwiw, AZ's farm system rankings:

John Sickels

The Yankees aren't going to get major league talent if they won't pay any of RJ's salary.


Really? Johnson is signed for 1 year at 16 million, no? That's not unfavorable for a guy with still-decent peripherals considering the cost of acquiring pitching on the market these days. I agree with you that the Yanks shouldn't get MUCH back without paying any salary, but it's not that onerous a deal.

That being said, if the thing that's holding this up is $4-5 million or so, the Yanks should hold their nose and make this happen.

Prelude to the Rocket's arrival.

I personally would like to see this and the return of the Rocket.

Sure, the Diamondbacks should trade genuine prospects for the chance to pay a 43 year old Randy Johnson $16M to continue his precipitous decline into retirement.

Are you kidding me? Any GM who would trade anything to pay Randy Johnson's full salary is a complete imbecile. C-level prospect? No. Bag of peanuts? No. Randy Johnson has negative value at $16M, so the Yankees should throw something into the deal to get someone to take him off their hands if they expect someone to pay the full salary. Oy.

The trend in his peripherals is just frightening:

IP: 245.7; 225.7; 205.7
W: 44; 47; 60
K: 290; 211; 172

Let's see . . . I'm guessing

185 IP, 75 BB, 152 Ks

You want to pay $16M for that, and give up talent to get it? Good luck.

If the Yankees want Rocket back, maybe they shouldn't have made him beg for a contract while they tried to sign Bartolo Colon.

If the Yankees want Rocket back, maybe they shouldn't have made him beg for a contract while they tried to sign Bartolo Colon.

By your rationale, there's zero chance he'll ever go back to Boston. Or to Houston last season, since they didn't offer him arbitration.

Or maybe he'll just go to whichever team he feels best fits his personal, family and financial desires. Or maybe he'll actually retire, as he eventually has to.

Sam, the Mets are about to pay Barry Zito 16 million a season for 5 years for just those numbers.

The idea of Randy Johnson in another time zone makes me smile.

Phil, Barry Zito can pitch effectively with those numbers -- he always has. Randy Johnson never has, and proved last year he can't. And his trend is crashing. Randy Johnson is -- and I'm pretty sure this is true, having thought about it for all of 20 seconds -- the very last player in major league baseball I would trade for. Counting salary, injury risk, likelihood of ineffectivness, personality . . . yup, I think so. He's the last player I'd want to acquire.

He's the last player I'd want to acquire.

I would more than Victor Zambrano?

Merry Christmas EVERYONE!

I agree with the surprise that the Yankees are saying that the receiving team will pay all of RJ's salary. RJ + $5 million for a grade B prospect would be reasonable and allow both teams to save face.

I would more than Victor Zambrano?

Victor Zambrano would cost me $3M, and by all accounts he's a prince of a guy. I'd want him back trying to recover from surgery before Randy Johnson.

There is, of course, one exception: I'd rather have Johnson than the one player whose acquisition would cause me to actively root against the Mets for as long as he wore the uniform. Strangely enough, he's already been mentioned in this thread . . . Clemens.

merry christmas all yall!!!

(for all yall not christians, i hope you have a nice day too)

considering the going rate for pitchers, and the fact that the only options left are zito and half a season of clemens, one of the 29 other GMs will be willing to eat all of RJ's salary...as for sending anything worthwhile back to the Yankees, that would just be a bonus for cashman. One thing to consider however, is that while he was no where near the ace the yankees thought they were getting, he is the one person in the organization outside of Philip Hughes with any potential of ace-type pitching....i know wang has been better for two years, but with his k-rate, you just never feel safe....without clemens an rj, they have a deeper, more adequete rotation than anyone in baseball, but its a rotation of 2's, 3's and 4's with no real glaring weaknesses or bright spots unless Hughes really turns it on around midseason.

For some reason, I tried to taunt Mets fans on Xmas morning.

And I ended up writing an unintelligible sentence.

Anyway, I would rather have Johnson than Curt Schilling

considering the going rate for pitchers, and the fact that the only options left are zito and half a season of clemens, one of the 29 other GMs will be willing to eat all of RJ's salary

It's not that simple. There aren't 29 other places Johnson will be willing to go, and of those places he might be willing to go, not all of them have room in their budgets for a $16M pitcher (and especially not for one who is as high-risk as Johnson is to flame out completely with a bad back sidelining him in May).

There aren't 29 other places Johnson will be willing to go, and of those places he might be willing to go, not all of them have room in their budgets for a $16M pitcher (and especially not for one who is as high-risk as Johnson is to flame out completely with a bad back sidelining him in May).

Alright, you've narrowed it down to the Mets. Scary, eh?

For a C prospect, I'd probably take a flyer on him for a year if I'm the Mets and they lose out on Zito, and I don't have confidence in any of my young pitchers. But I don't think any of those things will happen. And I'm glad- I don't want to have to root for Randy Johnson.

By the way, C prospect isn't Milledge. It's Chase Lambin. Just so our terms are clear.

You know what might be an interesting deal?

Johnson & Cabrera for Milledge. No $$ changing hands.

"Johnson & Cabrera for Milledge. No $$ changing hands."

Uh, interesting in what way? Milledge might be better then Cabrera. Paying RJ 16 million has enough upside that I wouldn't do that.

Ugh, now I have to prepare for the Milledge is 8 months younger and has a higher ceiling and played in the toughest hitting enviornment ever arguements.

Anyway, I would rather have Johnson than Curt Schilling

Really?

Why?

For a C prospect, I'd probably take a flyer on him for a year if I'm the Mets and they lose out on Zito, and I don't have confidence in any of my young pitchers. But I don't think any of those things will happen. And I'm glad- I don't want to have to root for Randy Johnson.

By the way, C prospect isn't Milledge. It's Chase Lambin. Just so our terms are clear.

Actually, Sam is going to kill me - but if there's any team that the Big Useless is a fit for, it would be the Mets. a) short commitment, b) reliable innings-eater, c) still can strike guys out

Right now, with Zito as leverage, I wouldn't be interested in giving up too much for Unit - maybe Vargas or a low level prospect. If Zito doesn't sign with us, I'd be willing to give up a little more.

Johnson & Cabrera for Milledge. No $$ changing hands.

Let's assume -- for the moment -- that Cabrera and Milledge are interchangeable. Why on Earth would the Mets want to take Johnson off the Yankees' hands for an even exhange of outfielders? To experience the pleasure of his charming personality? For the joy of paying him $16M to be the next five-inning starter to put pressure on their bullpen? For the thrill of holding their breath every time his back feels achy? Exactly how old do you think the Mets want their El Duque/Glavine-filled rotation to get? The thought of this is utterly preposterous.

There is an extremely good chance that Randy Johnson will be the most overpaid player in the major leagues next year, giving zero value for $16M. If not zero, then way, way less than you want from a $16M investment. No sane GM is going to give the Yankees anything of value for the right to assume that risk. The Yankees will be extremely fortunate to get out from under that risk if they can pay someone else to take it. Whatever they give away, whether it be cash or a better player than they get back, should be thought of as an insurance premium. Obviously, Melky Cabrera is too much to pay as an insurance premium without something coming back the other way -- but Milledge to balance things? Please.

You know what might be an interesting deal?

Johnson & Cabrera for Milledge. No $$ changing hands.

The Mets have no use for Cabrera. We already have Chavez.

If the Mets were assured that they could flip Cabrera for Gonzalez though, that would be a trade to think about.

That's not unfavorable for a guy with still-decent peripherals considering the cost of acquiring pitching on the market these days.

Well yeah, except for the part where he ####### sucks.

I'd rather have a Curt Schilling-like pitcher who isn't Curt Shilling than Curt Schilling, but of course Johnson isn't such a pitcher any longer. And I'm 99% sure that he's a Republican ####### too.

"Let's assume -- for the moment -- that Cabrera and Milledge are interchangeable."

They are.

Rasky, you really need to stop imbibing the Christmas cheer. Your perspective on Randy Johnson is, to put it charitably . . . charitable. "Reliable innings eater"??? Reliable? At the age of 43, with a bad back and a worse attitude? With deteriorating performance and showing no inclination or ability to adjust? Close the bridges and put up the barricades; don't let that man anywhere NEAR Queens, except when it's time for interleague play. 2007 is the year in which the Yankees SHOULD have to pay the price for past glories (well, to the extent they haven't been overpaying for Johnson's past glories ever since they acquired him . . . but 2007 is really going to be ugly). I just hope no other GM lets them off the hook. And I really hope it's not Omar who does it. Ugh.

"The Mets have no use for Cabrera. We already have Chavez."

That's pretty ridiculous. Melky is already better then Chavez (unless you think Endy's season last year in part time play shows his real offensive talent) and 7 years younger.

"Let's assume -- for the moment -- that Cabrera and Milledge are interchangeable."

They are.

Ignoring minor league performance these days, eh, Cowboy?

Cabrera (357 G, 1432 ABs): .278/.355/.384/.739
Milledge (288 G, 1100 ABs): .303/.384/.473/.857

Cabrera's done very nicely in limited play in the majors. I'm not going to base much on 479 carefully-chosen ABs, however, especially not when Milledge hasn't had the chance to show what he can do yet in even a quarter that many ABs.

It'll be very interesting to see what they each fetch in trade if they are, in fact, traded. Care to bet on who brings the bigger return?

That's pretty ridiculous. Melky is already better then Chavez (unless you think Endy's season last year in part time play shows his real offensive talent) and 7 years younger.

Here are Cabrera's lines through the minors:

(OBP/SLG)
.388/.491
.345/.355
.341/.438
.383/.462
.309/.366
.322/.411
.430/.566
.360/.391 (majors)


He's better than Chavez, but when you factor in defense and baserunning, the gap isn't large. And his age is irrelevant in a trade with the Mets - the Mets have a couple of other young OFers who will be ready soon.

Frankly with Chavez and Ben Johnson, Cabrera is redundant.

Having said that, I do think that Cabrera would be a solid OFer and can be useful to someone else as a trading chip.

Rasky, you really need to stop imbibing the Christmas cheer. Your perspective on Randy Johnson is, to put it charitably . . . charitable. "Reliable innings eater"??? Reliable? At the age of 43, with a bad back and a worse attitude? With deteriorating performance and showing no inclination or ability to adjust? Close the bridges and put up the barricades; don't let that man anywhere NEAR Queens, except when it's time for interleague play. 2007 is the year in which the Yankees SHOULD have to pay the price for past glories (well, to the extent they haven't been overpaying for Johnson's past glories ever since they acquired him . . . but 2007 is really going to be ugly). I just hope no other GM lets them off the hook. And I really hope it's not Omar who does it. Ugh.

Sam, the thought of RJ on the Mets isn't very appetizing to me either. But there is a chance that he could be good, even very good. I don't want to rush Pelfrey or Humber if I can, and after Zito, there really aren't many options available.

To use an old analogy, this is strictly sucking down the day-old coffee for the caffeine kick because all the Starbucks are now closed. In the beginning of the offseason, I would have flat-out rejected any possibility. But now, D-Mat, Schmidt, Lilly, Padilla, Meche, and Suppan are all gone.

Weaver and Johnson may be the only 2 realistic options left. Weaver would cause me a great deal of pain. Johnson less so.

2007 ZiPS projection for Melky: .295/.355/.445

2007 ZiPS projection for Milledge: .277/.356/.436

Same age. It would seem that Cabrera's major league performance has made up the differential in their minor league performance records - from a statistical standpoint at least.

The case against Cabrera isn't his raw numbers to me, it's his penchant for hitting the ball on the ground, which gives him a pretty good shot of not developing much more power.

For me, giving Rick Peterson and Willie Randolph their choice of Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber (whichever of the two they believe is more ready after spring training) is a far better option than trading for Randy Johnson. That's an easy call.

"merry christmas all yall!!!"

Merry Christmas to you, bb chick.

"I'm not going to base much on 479 carefully-chosen ABs"

"Carefully chosen" is an interesting way to say "most recent"

"Ignoring minor league performance these days, eh, Cowboy?

Cabrera (357 G, 1432 ABs): .278/.355/.384/.739
Milledge (288 G, 1100 ABs): .303/.384/.473/.857"

And yet they project the same. That damn, Yankee biased Zips system.

"It'll be very interesting to see what they each fetch in trade if they are, in fact, traded. Care to bet on who brings the bigger return?"

Not only is that not really relevant, it will never happen, because you and I both know Minaya isn't trading Milledge.

"Frankly with Chavez and Ben Johnson, Cabrera is redundant."

You aren't making any sense. Ben Johnson is 26 next year. Having a 22 year old that is better then your 26 year old option or or your 28 year old is not redundant.

I'm going to assume this is BS just like almost every other D-backs move that is leaked. I'm totally fine with the team not being able to acquire another ace to complement Webb as long as those innings are used to figure out which of the half-dozen starter candidates is in Arizona for the long haul. There is little reason to give players like Livan, Davis, Mulder, or Johnson the opportunity to audition for their next contract: These guys aren't going to take Arizona to the World Series in '07, and they aren't going to be here after that.

"Carefully chosen" is an interesting way to say "most recent"

No, carefully chosen is a way to say that they aren't necessarily representative of how Cabrera would fare as a full-time player, forced to face all pitchers rather than those Torre feels he matches up well against.

And yet they project the same. That damn, Yankee biased Zips system.

They project the same in the short term, even though Cabrera has the advantage of nearly a full season's worth of major league ABs under his belt. He needs the head-start of experience to project to perform even-up with Milledge . . . because Milledge is actually the better player long-term.

Not only is that not really relevant, it will never happen, because you and I both know Minaya isn't trading Milledge.

First of all, it's very relevant. It tells us something significant about how an important segment of the "rating" population views these two players. I am saying major league GMs value Milledge MUCH more highly than Cabrera, and he would bring far more in trade. You don't think that's as relevant as ZiPS?

Second, I don't think it's certain at all that Minaya won't trade Milledge. He doesn't want to, but it was pretty clear Milledge was being discussed in the Oakland talks, and that he was being discussed in Willis talks last season. It was how much MORE than Milledge the other teams wanted that caused those discussions to founder. Minaya is plainly willing to put Milledge's name into trade talks. If they miss out on Zito, I think there's a decent chance Milledge gets dealt.

Cabrera could be a moderately useful piece for the Mets, because he's more ready than Milledge is. So I wouldn't call him redundant, but he's certainly not a really good fit, either. They need a starting pitcher and a second baseman a lot more.

There is an extremely good chance that Randy Johnson will be the most overpaid player in the major leagues next year, giving zero value for $16M. If not zero, then way, way less than you want from a $16M investment.

Bartolo Colon pulled a similar stunt in 2006. $14 million for 56 innings of 86 ERA+. Similarly, Stoneman's faith in his "health" cost the team about four Jered Weaver starts and maybe five or six Joe Saunders starts. That, right there, is the difference in winning the AL West and coming in 2nd place.

Colon is the reason the Halos lost the division.

Happy Holidays!

And yet they project the same. That damn, Yankee biased Zips system.

They project the same for 2007. I don't see their ceilings as similar. Cabrera's track record in the minors and his rookie year all argue about the type of player he'll be: a very good OBP, subpar SLG type OFer who will be a versatile OFer. There's value in that, just not as much value as the potential of a "toolsy" prospect like Milledge.

[...]

"Frankly with Chavez and Ben Johnson, Cabrera is redundant."

You aren't making any sense. Ben Johnson is 26 next year. Having a 22 year old that is better then your 26 year old option or or your 28 year old is not redundant.

It isn't making much sense to you because you don't want to make sense of it. I've said twice now, that for the Mets, Cabrera doesn't bring much more than what they already have. Yes, he's better than Chavez. But he's not better by much. For 2007, he offers more OBP, at the expense of defense and speed. Likewise, as the 5th OFer, Johnson can do many of the things (not all, but many) of the things that Cabrera could bring in 2007.

It's true that because Cabrera is 22, he'll eventually bring a lot more to the table than Chavez or Johnson. But it's not important to the Mets because by that time, I would be more interested in giving Gomez and F-Mart a chance to establish themselves than letting Cabrera mature.

No, carefully chosen is a way to say that they aren't necessarily representative of how Cabrera would fare as a full-time player, forced to face all pitchers rather than those Torre feels he matches up well against.

This is hugely inaccurate. Melky was playing everyday from when Matsui came up injured to about the end of the season.

A few quick thoughts:

1. The remaining 29 GMs don't have the same shot at RJ. Because of his no trade clause, you can pretty much bank on the fact that he won't go anywhere else but AZ... or to spring training with the Yankees. What the GM of the Royals (hypothetical scenario) would offer for RJ that would be so much better than what AZ could offer is totally irrelevant.

2. The Mets-Yankees trade talk and posturing over Milledge vs. Melky is pretty pointless. RJ won't go to the Mets. That's pretty much a given. He's already in NY with the #1 baseball team in NY. Why would he go to the #2 team in NY, especially if his purported desire is to leave NY altogether?

3. I actually would give up a couple of C prospects for RJ's 16m salary. Maybe that's because I'm an idiot. But I'd do with it really one condition: I'd offer RJ a two year deal (for 07 and 08, maybe with a club option for 09) worth around 22m or so, and ask him to give up the $16m salary for next year. At around $11m/year, he's certainly worth giving up a couple of C level pitching prospects. The Dbacks have a gaggle of those anyhow. They gave up a couple of them for a guy like Livan Hernandez, I'd give up a couple of others for RJ.

4. RJ needs about 20 wins to get to 300. He won't get there in 2007; he will get there in 2008. To get that extra year, and return home to AZ, he'd have to give the DBacks a discount for the next two years.

5. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone!

This is all very simple.

Milledge > Cabrera > Chavez

I mean, what's to discuss?

Oh, and Merry Christmas.

"No, carefully chosen is a way to say that they aren't necessarily representative of how Cabrera would fare as a full-time player, forced to face all pitchers rather than those Torre feels he matches up well against."

Except that that isn't the way Melky was used at all. He came up in May and was used as an everyday player after that. After his first game, Melky missed 6 games total. I don't think Melky was benched by Torre because of the ace pitchers of the D-rays, O's, Rangers and Red Sox.

"He needs the head-start of experience to project to perform even-up with Milledge . . . because Milledge is actually the better player long-term."

Let me get this straight. You are twisting Melky's success against Major League pitchers agaisnt him? A headstart? He had success on the major league level, that's an advantage in performance history. Milledge blew against major leaguers this year. That's part of both of their histories. You have nothing to suggest that Milledge will be the better player long term. Milledge has bat speed, Melky has his eye and a history of high batting averages. Milledge might be Carlos Beltran, Melky might be Bobby Abreu (highest ceiling for both as far as I can tell). The last year puts Melky ahead of Milledge, which makes up for whatever advantage Milledge might have in upside.

"I am saying major league GMs value Milledge MUCH more highly than Cabrera, and he would bring far more in trade. You don't think that's as relevant as ZiPS?"

Except that the situations are not the same. Minaya doesn't have Steinbrenner in the background, or Joe Torre complaining about his bullpen. Minaya can play hard ball because he can sign the last piece of the puzzle this offseason. Cashman can't. There are tons of prospects that have gotten more in return then players like Scott Kazmir, doesn't mean they were better players or even better prospects.

"that he was being discussed in Willis talks last season."

And Milledge doesn't ever seem to be enough to get that pitcher the Mets want. It always stalls at Milledge+ according to the rumors. Maybe Milledge's stock among GMs isn't as high as it is here. But you're right, maybe Milledge will get traded and maybe we'll have a chance to see who gets more in return.

"I mean, what's to discuss?"

I'm bored and having fun egging on the Mets fans.

No, carefully chosen is a way to say that they aren't necessarily representative of how Cabrera would fare as a full-time player, forced to face all pitchers rather than those Torre feels he matches up well against.

Sounds like someone has no idea what he is talking about.

God, isn't there anything else to do on this site besides troll Mets fans? Mets fans like the top 3-5 prospects in the Mets system. They are among the higher-rated prospects in baseball. Assuming that they're as good as we hope and expect them to be, it would be nice to have them in our organization for several years at a very cheap salary. In addition, most fans of any team have a special emotional attachment to the players whom they have followed coming up through the minors and whom were "built" by the team. So, most Mets fans would rather not trade these three players unless the deal were to clearly be a steal for the Mets. Is this such a crime??? Is it really that intriguing a phenomenon that people have to sit here for MONTHS, make up trade offers involving them, and castigate the Mets fans for not wanting those imaginary trades to happen? Jsut let it be. The Mets and Yankees aren't going to trade anyone more significant than Rafael Santana anyway. Good Lord.

I'd offer RJ a two year deal (for 07 and 08, maybe with a club option for 09) worth around 22m or so, and ask him to give up the $16m salary for next year. At around $11m/year, he's certainly worth giving up a couple of C level pitching prospects.

Levski, if you would offer that guy a two-year deal . . . wow. Just, wow. IMHO, there is a massive chance Randy Johnson will bear not even a passing resemblence to a major league pitcher in 2008. That contract would be the moral equivalent of flushing $11M (or at least the extra $6M you'd be tacking on to the $16M already owed the guy) down the toilet. Wow.

You are twisting Melky's success against Major League pitchers agaisnt him?

Who's using it "against him"? It's not for or against; it's just a fact. In projecting the two players in the short term, the one with the major league experience will have an advantage. Cabrera has that, and I would expect him to put it to use, just as I would expect any major leaguer with experience to put that to use and have some advantage over a rookie learning to play at the major league level. Once Milledge bridges that experience gap, I believe his superior talent (as reflected in his minor league numbers) will leave him outperforming Cabrera.

Since you continue to bob and weave and duck the question about what each of them would bring in return in a trade, I'll take that as admission that Milledge has greater value. Your claim about Steinbrenner and Torre pressuring Cashman is pure bunk; even if they were pressuring him to deal Cabrera, what does that have to do with what he could get back??? A: Nothing.

But anyway, none of it's really relevant to the issue here. Milledge and Cabrera ain't crossing town as part of a deal for Johnson, and Johnson isn't crossing boroughs, either. Thank the Lord.

Is it really that intriguing a phenomenon that people have to sit here for MONTHS, make up trade offers involving them, and castigate the Mets fans for not wanting those imaginary trades to happen? Jsut let it be.

I blame bibigon.

You have nothing to suggest that Milledge will be the better player long term. Milledge has bat speed, Melky has his eye and a history of high batting averages. Milledge might be Carlos Beltran, Melky might be Bobby Abreu (highest ceiling for both as far as I can tell)

Here are the career minor league totals for all these players:

Beltran .268/.347/.436 (MLB debut at 21)
Milledge .303/.384/.473 (MLB debut at 21)
Cabrera .294/.347/.422 (MLB debut at 21)
Abreu .290/.371/.451 (MLB debut at 21)

Comparing Milledge to Cabrera, we can see that Lastings has a better minor league career AVG, OBP, and SLG. His IsoD is higher, as is his IsoP. Scouting reports also favor him. If that doesn't suggest to you that Milledge will be the better player long term, we have nothing to discuss here. Yes, Cabrera had a nice season last year, and I'd love to have him on my team, but I'd still rather have Milo. BTW, it is worth noting that Milledge's stats compare favorably to those of Abreu and Beltran. I'm not saying that he's going to be better than them (heck, I'd love for him to follow any of those career paths), but to say that either one is the ceiling of his potential doesn't strike me as reasonable.

"Yes, Cabrera had a nice season last year, and I'd love to have him on my team, but I'd still rather have Milo."

If I were objective, I probably would too. I got all hopped up by my misinterpretation of #31. I still think Melky is closer to Milledge then most people here do.

Something I just noticed -- last year, Johnson allowed 125 runs despite letting only 254 on base via hit or walk. . . . Holy crud. Sure, there's 10 HBP to throw in, but that's an amazingly high percentage of runner scoring.

(looks it up). Best OPSs in the AL last year:

Travis Hafner 1098
Manny Rameriz 1058
David Ortiz 1049
Jim Thome 1014
Hitters Facing Randy Johnson w/ Runners On 1007
Jermaine Dye 1007
Jeremy Giambi 971
Joe Mauer 936
Justin Morneau 934
Vlad Guerrero 934

Neat, huh?

Look, I'm not saying that clutch pitching is a myth, because I don't think that. But .. . . I mean, c'mon! That's nuts!

Randy Johnson was a better pitcher than his ERA+ indicates. Then if you account for the Yanks' defensive quality, he's better still. No, he ain't worth $16 million, but Sam M's selling him short here.

Based purely on the numbers, there's absolutely nothing to not love about Milledge. The hard core Primates know that we Mets Primates have been tracking Milledge for 3 years now - he hasn't had any trouble at any level until the majors this past year. Moreover, cumulatively, about 2 seasons were accomplished in two of the harshest offensive environments in the minors - the FSL and the 2006 IL which played like the FSL that year.

The only hesitation I have with Milledge is that he seems to rub people the wrong way. It's now a pattern, not an isolated incident. As much as I'd like it to go away, it's as much a part of the player as his numbers are. We'll see how he deals with it.

But based purely on the numbers, his production at each age and level practically screams Stud Prospect.

No, carefully chosen is a way to say that they aren't necessarily representative of how Cabrera would fare as a full-time player, forced to face all pitchers rather than those Torre feels he matches up well against.

During the time Matsui was out of the lineup, Cabrera was a full-time player. In June, July, and August, Melky played in all of the team's games, and started all but two. Torre didn't have the choice to sit Melky until Matsui and Sheffield returned in September, and even then he wasn't benched for favorable matchups (he only had a .679 OPS that month), but because Torre couldn't get everyone playing time.

This isn't to say I agree with the assessment that Cabrera's a better prospect than Milledge. Before this season you'd have been laughed out of the room if you suggested that Melky was on the same level. But it's not as if Cabrera's success in 2006 was manufactured by only sending him up against weak competition.

During the time Matsui was out of the lineup, Cabrera was a full-time player.

I stand corrected on that point . . . multiple times! ;-) Mea culpa.

Levski, if you would offer that guy a two-year deal . . . wow. Just, wow. IMHO, there is a massive chance Randy Johnson will bear not even a passing resemblence to a major league pitcher in 2008. That contract would be the moral equivalent of flushing $11M (or at least the extra $6M you'd be tacking on to the $16M already owed the guy) down the toilet. Wow.

Sam, RJ, in the NL west, over the next 2 years, will be better than any starting pitcher the Mets currently have on their roster. And that means Glavine, Pedro, etc., etc. and the entire flock of youngsters. It won't even be that close.

Sam, RJ, in the NL west, over the next 2 years, will be better than any starting pitcher the Mets currently have on their roster.

<shakes head at fanboyism of it all; walks away muttering>

No, wait. I'll say this: I once loved a pitcher enough to delude myself like that, Levski. More power to you. You want him back in the D'backs' uni, I guess I can understand that.

But he's going to suck -- the trend line in his performance could not be clearer, sharper, or more irreversible. Johnson will pitch only one way, and IMO, he's about to cross a line after which he simply cannot be effective pitching that way. I doubt he'll hold up physically, but even if he does, the performance won't be pretty. Put him back in that homerific stadium of yours, with his ever-elevating walk rate, and it will just get worse. Not better -- worse.

Yes, I know, I'm way out on a limb here. But it's one I feel quite confident of; Johnson's breakdown and/or crash & burn is one of the most predictable events of the 2007 baseball season.

Sam, RJ, in the NL west, over the next 2 years, will be better than any starting pitcher the Mets currently have on their roster. And that means Glavine, Pedro, etc., etc. and the entire flock of youngsters. It won't even be that close.

Levski, make your case why the Useless should age better than Glavine.

One of the most surprising things I learned via Cross and the BJ Handbook is that Johnson isn't even in the top 20 of hardest throwers anymore. He's lost velocity at a disturbing pace these last two years. My impression of Johnson over the years is someone who relies on an overpowering fastball and slider to dominate hitters. He's never really had to hone the craft of pitching. Not good for someone who is losing that fastball.

Meanwhile, Glavine is the mirror contrast. He was Tommy John with Ks back in his prime. As he's gotten older, he's defined the Platonic ideal of the Tommy John pitcher, using his experience and reputation to live on that outside corner. He's mastered the knowledge of what can hurt him and what won't. I think Glavine should age well.

Actually, Sam, I don't care if he has a Dbacks uni next year. Or the year after. I'm just saying that you're underestimating him. Significantly.

Raski, it would probably be more meaningful to see where RJ ranks amongst the hardest throwing starters, not all pitchers. Plenty of relievers throw hard.

Basically, the wild card with RJ is the back surgery. Assuming it's successful and he's back on the mound in spring training, I don't see why he shouldn't succeed.

Fwiw, if you look at zips (stats schmats), RJ, in the american league east, projects to have a better season than ANY Mets starters, who'll be pitching in the NL east.

Except for Pedro, that is, but I'm not counting Pedro because the guy probably won't make much more than a couple of ceremonial starts for the Mets next September.

RJ doesn't have to be 1999 through 2004 good(taking out 2003, his injury year) to be a better starter than anyone who'll make 20+ starts for the Mets next year.

Raski, it would probably be more meaningful to see where RJ ranks amongst the hardest throwing starters, not all pitchers. Plenty of relievers throw hard.

The list that Cross was citing had an innings pitched threshold. Wang threw harder than Johnson, which surprised me. The list had your classic fireballers and then some surprising names, all starters, but no Randy Johnson.

Brilliant Darren: If the Yankees want Rocket back, maybe they shouldn't have made him beg for a contract while they tried to sign Bartolo Colon.

************

Crazy Larry: By your rationale, there's zero chance he'll ever go back to Boston. Or to Houston last season, since they didn't offer him arbitration.

Or maybe he'll just go to whichever team he feels best fits his personal, family and financial desires. Or maybe he'll actually retire, as he eventually has to.

Larry, I usually just blindly agree with everything you say, so it's surprising to me how wrong you are here. :) And Merry Christmas, my friend.

None of the people who pushed Clemens out of Boston are still there. Both the GM and the owners have changed. NY has exactly the same people (Cashman particularly) in place who publicly went after Colon and left Clemens begging for a contract, while acknowledging as much in public comments. As for the Houston situation last year, Clemens was reportedly somewhat miffed about it, and was close to returning to Boston, but decided that Houston was more comfortable.

I'm not saying that there's no way that Clemens returns to NY (which is what you implied that I was saying), just that I think he'll remember how he was treated and it will be a factor. I also think that his 'come and go as I please' arrangement will loom large, which is not an option in NY according to Torre a couple years back.

Best OPS against in MLB last year:

Randy Johnson w/ None On 595
Johan Santana 618
Chris Carpenter 643
Brandon Webb 650
Mike Mussina 653

Did he switch from the wind-up to the stretch with runners on? If so, maybe he should stop doing that.

In today's market 16 million is probably about right for Johnson. He's probably about as good a bet as Pettite to be good, and even at his age, a better bet than the group of pitchers going in the 10-11 million range.

He's probably worth more to AZ than most teams, giving them a link to championship past while they break in all their young talent. He should keep attendance from collapsing, at least every 5th day.

If I were AZ, I'd take on the salary for some used equipment, or give up prospects if the Yanks pay a good chunk of his salary, but not both. And if it doesn't work out, if RJ makes 15 crappy starts coming off his injuries and retires, no big deal, its only a one year contract.

I also think that his 'come and go as I please' arrangement will loom large, which is not an option in NY according to Torre a couple years back.

It may have not been an option two years ago when the Yankees thought they had pitching to spare, but now... beggars can't be choosers.

Merry Christmas to you, too, Darren. Even though I'm a godless heathen.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2708203

In need of starting pitching -- and a marquee name that will draw more fans -- the Diamondbacks have offered a package of at least three players, including a major-leaguer. They would also want a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension with Johnson, who is owed $16 million in the final year of his contract. The Yankees, according to the official, don't want to pick up any of Johnson's salary.

In need of starting pitching -- and a marquee name that will draw more fans -- the Diamondbacks have offered a package of at least three players, including a major-leaguer. They would also want a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension with Johnson, who is owed $16 million in the final year of his contract. The Yankees, according to the official, don't want to pick up any of Johnson's salary.

Move over, Bill Bavasi. Josh Byrnes wants that coveted, "Worst Move of the Off-Season" title, and he'll stop at nothing to get it from you.

The Yankees aren't going to get major league talent if they won't pay any of RJ's salary. I don't think Tracy is going to NY, and Tracy AND Nippert for RJ, especially if the Yankees won't take on any salary, is preposterous. I wouldn't give up that much for Big Ugly, and I'm arguably one of his biggest (and onliest? LOL) fans.

The Dbacks have a deep enough farm system so they could offer a couple of guys of the Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson, Greg Smith, Matt Green group. But that's probably about it.

Ahem, Levski. Seems to me that Byrnes wants Eunuch bad. 3 player package including a MLer? Seems like the trade is going be more what I proposed - Tracy and Nippert - than your proposed deal. Unlike Sam, I do think this is the right move for the D-backs.

If that trade gets made, you can say goodbye to Conor Jackson. He's got to be the major-leaguer.

Trading Jackson straight up for RJ would be a monstrous gaffe.

If I'm were a Yankees fan, first I'd convert to the Mets.

But if I were a Yankees fan with no hope of caste promotion, if Conor Jackson were offered for Unit, I'd pay for the plane ticket to AZ with extra leg room for Mr. Johnson. Conor Jackson in that Yankee lineup? That should be illegal.

Doubt it would be Jackson.

I'd think either Tracy for 1B or Byrnes maybe setting up a Melky trade.

If it's Tony Clark, I might throw myself through a window.

Jackson isn't happening....

Tracy, Brynes, and Nippert would be like a 2nd Christmas. Arizona sheds some unwanted payroll and gets their EUNIT. Yankees remove the curse that is RJ and forge ahead. RJ was the consummate "except for the Nth inning he was great" pitcher last season. As soon as he got to the stretch he couldn't get out of it. On the surface I can't believe AZ would be willing to do this but maybe they would...

Melky to the Pirates for Gonzalez...although I love Melky. Very sad, but at least he gets to play. Brynes gets to be the expensive 4th outfielder.

Oh please let this happen. Certainly YankeeFan wishcasting...but please.

Clark's last five years are amazing. Four of the worst years you'll ever get from a 1B and a 1000 OPS season .

I'm bored and having fun egging on the Mets fans.

Oh. Good times. Merry Christmas!

And how Pink got to be the lead-in singer for the NBC Sunday Nite football game is beyond me. I feel wrong just letting my 11 year old cousin sit in the room while she's on the screen.

Tracy, Brynes, and Nippert would be like a 2nd Christmas. Arizona sheds some unwanted payroll and gets their EUNIT. Yankees remove the curse that is RJ and forge ahead. RJ was the consummate "except for the Nth inning he was great" pitcher last season. As soon as he got to the stretch he couldn't get out of it. On the surface I can't believe AZ would be willing to do this but maybe they would...

Melky to the Pirates for Gonzalez...although I love Melky. Very sad, but at least he gets to play. Brynes gets to be the expensive 4th outfielder.

Cuff, that actually makes a lot of sense and has realistic potential.

If Cashman can pull this off - he will have revamped his rotation, bolstered the lineup, strengthened the bullpen, and reinjected good young players throughout the roster. If he pulls it off, he deserves an A++ for the offseason.

In need of starting pitching -- and a marquee name that will draw more fans -- the Diamondbacks have offered a package of at least three players, including a major-leaguer. They would also want a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension with Johnson, who is owed $16 million in the final year of his contract. The Yankees, according to the official, don't want to pick up any of Johnson's salary.

A major leaguer? Let's see... Tony Clark? Jorge Julio? Brandon Lyon? Eric Fn Byrnes? LOL

So Josh Byrnes would want to negotiate an extension, just like I mentioned I would. I feel so smart. :)

Move over, Bill Bavasi. Josh Byrnes wants that coveted, "Worst Move of the Off-Season" title, and he'll stop at nothing to get it from you.

Sam, shouldn't you wait a little bit to hear all the details (of the trade and proposed extension) before shooting off a sarcastic wad?

Ahem, Levski. Seems to me that Byrnes wants Eunuch bad. 3 player package including a MLer? Seems like the trade is going be more what I proposed - Tracy and Nippert - than your proposed deal. Unlike Sam, I do think this is the right move for the D-backs.

3 player package including a MLer means nothing. It certainly doesn't have to mean "Tracy and Nippert".

If that trade gets made, you can say goodbye to Conor Jackson. He's got to be the major-leaguer.

You've got to be the biggest idiot ever.

I too am curious to find out which players have been offered to the Yankees. I think it'll be more along the lines of the C-level pitchers mentioned in my earlier posts along with someone like Jorge Julio or Brandon Lyon.

Sam, shouldn't you wait a little bit to hear all the details (of the trade and proposed extension) before shooting off a sarcastic wad?

Levski, I can't believe you said that. Who is guilty of that particular sin more than you?

Sam, shouldn't you wait a little bit to hear all the details (of the trade and proposed extension) before shooting off a sarcastic wad?

Did Levski really just say that to me? Levski??? I can die happy; I've actually gotten the leopard to bleach his spots!

Seriously, it doesn't matter that much who it is. If the Diamondbacks give up any appreciable talent for Johnson, I believe that's a bad move. If they commit themselves to an extension, rather than counting themselves lucky to be done with him after 2007, I believe that's a bad move, too.

Sorry, but this is a War Games situation: the only winning move is not to play.

Guys, I'm a born again BTF poster.

Sam, while I respect your opinions, I'll just have to go with Josh Byrnes's decisions it comes to baseball.

Ahem, Levski. Seems to me that Byrnes wants Eunuch bad. 3 player package including a MLer? Seems like the trade is going be more what I proposed - Tracy and Nippert - than your proposed deal. Unlike Sam, I do think this is the right move for the D-backs.

3 player package including a MLer means nothing. It certainly doesn't have to mean "Tracy and Nippert".

I think the Yankees not wanting to pay is simply a negotiating ploy to get the D-back to raise the quality of their players offered. The most obvious leverage in these negotiations on the Yankees side is the capacity to absorb salary. It also happens to be the area that the D-backs are the least flexible on.

On the other side, the D-backs have too many good young players to know what to do with. Cashman is too sharp not to help himself to the buffet table. It's an excellent match at many levels.

That's why my original proposal is still the one I stand by: Big Uni and cash (I'll guess 10M) for Chad Tracy and Nippert. Maybe some auxiliary players will be thrown in on either side, but they will be the 3 most significant players.

(I reserve the right to gloat if this goes down. I proposed it a month ago.)

I have to think Eric Byrnes is involved. That just makes too much sense for both teams, especially if there's any truth to the Melky rumors. Enrique/Edgar Gonzalez should be thrown in to end the massive confusion of having 2 RHPs born months apart with strikingly similar names in the same organization. Finally, if Steinbrenner still has any input, Casey Daigle is going to the Yankees for the possibility of bringing Jennie Finch to Yankee Stadium.

You've got to be the biggest idiot ever.
Yes, I am, actually. Thanks! :)

Trading Tracy creates a hole at 3B that the Dbacks cannot fill internally, and no viable external candidate exists. He isn't going anywhere. Nippert, I can see. Tracy, no.

Also, Tracy and Drew are the only left handed regulars in the lineup next year (aside from Montero, who'll probably split at bats with Snyder). The Dbacks have shopped Tracy around, true, but they'd need something much better than a year of Big Ugly at $16m to trade him... and this holds true even if cash is involved.

I don't even think any of this has been reported accurately. Some "official" from a 3rd club not invlolved in the negotiations has all this dope?

The ESPN story does not quote any sources, other than "an official"....this writer is probably just regurgitating the rumour from the star ledger and throwing in some speculation.

Even if they are really talking, I just don't see anything getting done, because I don't see JB taking it up the arse just to make this happen.

Personally, I don't really see Johnson being all that effective going forward, but I am not inclined to be as militant in that projection as Sam has been in this thread. One thing I have witnessed is you just never count RJ out until it is really done. Can a move back to the NL, in familiar and comfortable surroundings, coupled with successful surgery and rehab allow him to stave off "final" decline? Can he go 200 innings and post a ERA+ in 2007? It may not be a good bet, but to so definitively rule out that possibility in the terms Sam has done here tempts the baseball Gods.

"Trading Tracy creates a hole at 3B that the Dbacks cannot fill internally"

This worries me. Cashman is either trading for a corner infield guy or a corner outfield guy and the D-backs have a couple of awful options there. As long as it isn't Tony Clark or Eric Byrnes (I will be so pissed if Melky gets traded), I think I'm gonna be happy though.

I think that if this deal happens, one side's fans are going to be very displeased.

post a ERA+ in 2007

well, he'll certainly post an ERA+ of some sort

"well, he'll certainly post an ERA+ of some sort"

Not if the Yanks put him down and sell him to the dog food company.

Trading Tracy creates a hole at 3B that the Dbacks cannot fill internally, and no viable external candidate exists.

Couldn't they play Callaspo there? Right now, he has nowhere to play on the big club, and he's practically ready.

My keyboard is dripping with the drooling saliva of Yankee fans desperate to unload RJ.

Given that RJ is coming off major back surgery, I can't see how the Yankees can expect much in return if they don't pick up any of his remaining contract.

Happy Holidays to everyone, especially bbc from her earlier post.

I think this will happen, and Clemens will sign in NY. I don't see AZ giving up anything of great value.