User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets. |
Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats
|
AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets. |
Page rendered in 2.1833 seconds
40 querie(s) executed
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
That's certainly a great motivation to unload RJ... and demand that the other team picks up ALL of his salary. If you are going to use the $16m to sign Clemens, whom you get for RJ isn't that important...
That may be Cashman's initial demand, but I don't see any chance of Byrnes' agreeing to that. I think the Yankees pick up some salary, get a reliever and a C prospect, and sign Clemens. And, as long as they don't give up much, I don't see this as bad gamble for Arizona. I may be in the extreme minority, but I could see Johnson's having something left in the tank if he is back in AZ.
The Yanks better kick in Arod then too.
Ahaha! Merry Christmas!
Wow, didn't know that. That's quite impressive considering the DH/pitcher factor.
The NL East is and will be a beast.
You've said this more than once, Bibi. But How much difference do you think it is? I think the DH by itself is worth half a run to an ERA and the league difference is worth about .2 runs. I'm not sure how much you think it is?
Red Sox fans are always going to overrate the league difference in my opinion becasue Boston has had a lot of difficulty gaging the difference. Most of the pitchers they have acquired from the NL have struggled, and most of the pitchers they let go have thrived and that's all they focus on. They don't see that guys like Millwood and Padilla have done better in the AL than in the NL. Or that guys like Benson and Burnett have done just as well in the AL considering their home parks.
10 mil? So the Yanks dump RJ to save 3-4 mil (including Tracy's arb salary)? I doubt it.
Tracy actually doesn't make much sense for the Yanks. He's not a 1B bat and I think they'd either want an elite level 1B or a 1 year stop gap.
MGL's research suggested the differential was on the order of about a run per game - I have no reason to doubt this.
Is that including the DH-pitcher difference?
I don't think the Yanks are dumping Eunuch. I think that Byrnes made the initial call inquiring to his availability.
Tracy actually doesn't make much sense for the Yanks. He's not a 1B bat and I think they'd either want an elite level 1B or a 1 year stop gap.
It's all about alternatives. Right now, Tracy (if he could be gotten) would be the best option available to the Yankees. I'm sure that if an elite 1Bman became available, the Yankees would have no qualms in getting him and either moving Tracy or benching him.
Of course I meant to type 100 ERA+ in post 93
After making a phone call or two, I need to ammend my earlier skepticism. These talks are for real, and quite serious.
I'd need to re-read his articles on the subject to be sure, but I believe it does.
#### Randy Johnson. Get him out of here.
Yeah, I know it took a lot of guts for him to pitch with his messed up back last year. And I know he came up big against Boston in 2005. And I know Javy Vazquez’s lackluster performance hasn’t exactly made Johnson’s acquisition look horrendous, by any stretch of the imagination.
I want Randy out because of what he represents: the last Stand of General George Steinbrenner. It’s time for a return to Yankee sensibility; using a ridiculous amount of resources to build a team, not buy one.
Happy and safe Holidays all!
How anyone would say they'd take Randy Johnson over Tom Glavine is completely bizarre. It is perhaps the most compelling example of pure AL arrogance blinding fans to reality I've ever seen.
I realize I'm at the extreme here in my view of Johnson, on the negative side, and that's fine -- I'm comfortable with that. And I can certainly see the case for wanting to trade for him, and still thinking he's a valuable pitcher worth acquiring. But I cannot honestly see the intellectually defensible case for believing there is any substantial likelihood at all he will outperform Tom Glavine. That one . . . that one just escapes me.
For one year, including defense, is he much better than Doug M. platooning with Phillips or Phelps? Tracy is only a career 291/348/470 hitter and didn't show power in the minors either (335/385/468).
I don't think the Yanks are dumping Eunuch. I think that Byrnes made the initial call inquiring to his availability.
But you think they trade him for a below average 1b and a B- prospect AND throw in $10 mil. If they're not dumping him, then you have to get back either value in players or salary relief. That trade provides neither.
I really have no idea how RJ will pitch next season. His peripherals indicate he should have a bounce back year but he's really old and is coming of back surgery. He's a complete mystery to me.
That said, if the Yankees just wanted to dump him, I think I'd rather have him for one year than Zito for 6.
These types of scenarios have already played out with Abreu, Sheffield, Pettitte, and Wright in recent months, why the hell should anything change.
Also, happy holidays to everybody else besides Larry.
This is a truly stunning statement to me. In my entire time at BTF, I've never seen a stronger case of a player being underrated by a long time poster. It's not that I think Johnson over Glavine is a slam dunk - it's that for you to find it so inconceivable that one could see the numbers as indicating that is a very confusing to me.
Johnson had strong peripherals last year, and his projections for next year call for him to have a strong ERA next year. For you to take his ERA of 5 on face value is very curious to me. You don't need to regress it all the way to his ZiPS projection, but some bounceback from better luck does seem likely.
As noted earlier in the thread, he was awful with men on base. I could only speculate on why that is so, and offer two theories:
1) Older Pitcher Theory: They sometimes lose it quickly in a game, and so they can look good for four innings, but then once they get a guy or two on base -- in the fifth inning or thereabouts -- it is also at the point when they are losing all their stuff. So all his hits and walks and the whole mess gets "concentrated" in the moment when he has nothing left to fight back with, and of course it's going to result in more runs than a guy with a more normal distribution of his men on base.
2) Stretch Theory: Something made him ineffective working from the stretch. I know during one game -- it was a period where he'd generally started pitching well otherwise, IIRC -- the Mets just lit him up, and there were stories afterward that Delgado (who has a reputation for this) figured out he was tipping his pitches and the Mets had him nailed. Perhaps Johnson was more often tipping his pitches from the stretch? Or maybe his back problems affected him more from the stretch -- when he could use the wind-up, he could get enough on the pitches that the back wasn't an issue (or as big a one), but from the stretch, he crossed that line between enough stuff and not-quite-enough.
That's speculation. But my real core issue with Johnson is this: the trend in his peripherals. In each of his last four full seasons (throw out 2003), they have declined. His strikeouts -- down precipitously. He did cut down his walks from 2002 to 2004, but since then, they've started climbing again, back up to levels that he won't be able to sustain without the old, higher K rates. Everything is in decline, and I don't see why anyone should believe that trend won't continue. What in his record should make anyone believe he is going to stablize?
The problem with applying ZiPS-like methods to Johnson is that he hasn't shown bounce-back in him. Players bounce back (in part) because they adjust. Johnson has to show me he can adjust to his new limits before I'll believe in it. Until he does, I'm going to believe in the consistency of his decline, because it is a very powerful consistency.
How about plain old shitty luck? Why must everything have a cogent explanation?
Whatever. Your irrational dislike for RJ is even bigger than your irrational love for Glavine.
No, bibigon -- that's just it. Bounceback isn't likely, because Johnson isn't likely to match the 2006 peripherals. He hasn't matched peripherals from a prior full season since 2002 (and even then he was slightly down from 2001, but at such a high level it's quibbling). Since then, the man has been in full retreat on his way to mediocrity. On what basis can you, or anyone else, express any confidence that the ERA will improve to meet the peripherals, rather than the peripherals continuing THEIR extremely steady, extremely consistent decline and thus keeping the ERA right where it was or making it even worse?
If Johnson's ERA improves, I believe it will only be marginally, because his actual pitching will continue to deteriorate. There's no basis for believing otherwise.
While this is true - it's also ignoring the other, and likely far larger reason that players bounce back. The preceding season only gave us a glimpse of their true talent, and we need to balance that with what else we know about the player's skill set.
ZiPS isn't projecting the player's talent to bounce back so much so as it's projecting his results to come more in line with what it perceives his talent to be.
Remember the knee? The one that is bone on bone and requires injections to keep lubricated?
Anyway, clearly there is a problem pitching from the stretch,and that is why his ERA was so much worse than his periphs and FIP would indicate
None on .206/.271/.324 595 OPS Against (481 AB)
Runners on .321/.363/.564 927 OPS Against (296 AB)
Bounce back in 1998? Huh? From that awful 1997 season? (Yes, yes, I know what you mean. Is it really relevant anyway to the 43 year old Johnson's ability to change the way he pitches and adjust to the reality he's NOT the "Big Unit" any more???)
And 2004, while somewhat more germane, is actually quite supportive of my viewpoint. It was his last great dominant season, still great but the natural step down from 2002, interrupted by the injury-plagued 2003. And since then, the decline has become only more precipitous. What it is in the numbers, Levski, that you refuse to see even though they just obvious?
Whatever. Your irrational dislike for RJ is even bigger than your irrational love for Glavine.
Neither is true. I don't love Glavine at all. I think he's quite solid and reliable at a level Randy Johnson is very unlikely ever to reach again. And I have always liked Randy Johnson, and although his irrascible personality lately has gotten a bit annoying, I still think he's been one of the great pitchers of my lifetime. I just don't think much of him as a pitcher right now, and I feel pretty strongly about that opinion.
So your point is that a 42 year old wasn't as good as he was at 41, which wasn't as good as he was at 40?
What part of this do you think ZiPS isn't aware of? It's projecting a line for a 43 year old pitcher, and it's aware of aging patterns, and is thus projecting his talent to decline into his age 43 season. It is still projecting a bounce back.
For one year, including defense, is he much better than Doug M. platooning with Phillips or Phelps? Tracy is only a career 291/348/470 hitter and didn't show power in the minors either (335/385/468).
If you have Doug M. platooning with anyone, I think the question answers itself.
As for Phillips and Phelps vs. Tracy, absolutely. While I do agree that Phillips and Phelps would be fine, Tracy to me is a clear upgrade. Tracy has a good chance to be an 800-900 OPS hitter, Phillips and Phelps less likely so.
But you think they trade him for a below average 1b and a B- prospect AND throw in $10 mil. If they're not dumping him, then you have to get back either value in players or salary relief. That trade provides neither.
It does the former - the value. Tracy provides the upgrade and Nippert is the extra young arm that is always of some value.
I understand that. And I respect it. But ZiPS is a tool. When it comes to pitchers, it and its competitor projection models have a long way to go. We -- all of us -- still have to use our common sense and our experience and our observations of individual players in deciding whether we think this player or that one is likely to meet, exceed, or underperform his projection.
I bet you ZiPS saw Johnson as likely to "bounce back" last year, too. After all, in 2005, Johnson had declined from a 2.60 ERA the year before to a 3.79, and that 3.79 really didn't reflect the quality of his pitching as seen in his peripherals.
But Johnson did NOT bounce back. Instead, he got more fragile and achey (and, to his credit, pitched through it to try and help his team). And his peripherals continued to get worse -- not to those of a 5.00 true talent pitcher, but -- what do you know? -- maybe to those of a 3.79 pitcher!
I see more than the numbers that ZiPS sees. I see a pitcher who is breaking down physically before our very eyes. A damned tough pitcher, who is trying to fight through that, quite admirably. But who is breaking down nonetheless. And as he breaks down, his margin for error evaporates, and his pitching declines. Steadily, inexorably. Time rules us all. It doesn't ZiPS by; it marches. And it has marched by Randy Johnson.
This thread will be worth bookmarking...
BTF poetry.
I agree that overall the difference between the AL East and NL East is much less than a run a game. A disproportionate amount of that proposed total is due to the comical disparity between AL Central and NL Central lineups in 2006. However, while the Phillies, Braves and Mets crushed RHP (.800 OPS each), they struggled to differing extents against LHP (25-60 points worse). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays were easily the best team in baseball vs LHP and project to be even better this year. Some of their 2006 OBPs against lefties are ridiculous:
Troy Glaus 413
Reed Johnson 422
Frank Thomas 429
Vernon Wells 392
Gregg Zaun 492 (only 63 PAs, but wow)
Thus, while a RHP like Wang or Mussina going from the Yankees to the NL East would likely put up similar stats, a LHP such as Johnson stands to benefit significantly. If he pitches as he did last year, I think one run off his 2006 ERA would be on the low end of his projected improvement.
Sam, to get out of the realm of generalities, what's your projected line for Johnson next year?
This is just so horrendously wrong. They didn't offer him arbitration because he told them he was retiring. They wanted him back; he didn't want to come back.
To take the anti-Unix stance. RJ did suck last year, and then proceeded to blow in the second most important game of the year for the Yankees. Even if he were to stabilize, we're still taking about a charred remain of the old Unix.
Let's wait until we know where he's going to pitch -- that's going to affect HRs, especially. But I'll say that his K/W ratio will fall below 2:1, he'll pitch fewer than 175 innings and give up more than a hit an inning . . . beyond that, let's see which uniform he's wearing.
I think Tracy would come back in the deal for the Yankees to want to get rid of him, and I think they'll pick up the money to do so. 4-5 million at least picked up, and maybe other parts from both teams to even things out as that still seems like too much from the D-Backs' end.
The Dbacks would need to have a trade for a 3Bman lined up already, and I don't really see anyone out there who might be available... short of Morgan Ensberg, maybe. But I doubt it.
I do think some other parts would be included on both ends to get the deal done. I actually would love to get Eric Byrnes if Melky is moved for Gonzalez. And if that happens I would guess (hope) the Yankees would move Proctor. Would the D-Backs have interest in him, though?
Does anyone really think Callaspo's glove can carry his bat at third? And if his glove is that good, why wouldn't they just trade Hudson (who'd bring a helluva lot more in trade than Tracy) and let Callaspo be a huge asset at second?
BPro weighs in, disagreeing with Sam.
It's about what's available on the market. You'd have to find a partner willing to give a starting pitcher (the D-backs' need) for Hudson. The Yankees have no use for Hudson.
Would he? I find that hard to believe the way Giles was just non-tendered that Hudson would get more interest than him.
Ron Belliard and Mark Loretta are available for just $$$ (required no draft picks nor talent back) for teams wanting to upgrade second base. Graffanino accepted arb in part because, according to his agent, he was just getting utilityman offers (even before the Brewers offered arb).
Now's not the best time to try and be offering a 2B around, unless you wish to sell low...
Anyway, after reading that analysis, I'd take him on the Mets. Heilman for him, straight up.
Blech. I would MUCH rather just make Heilman a starter and spend the $15M salary difference elsewhere on an actual good player. Heilman would be a much better starter than Johnson in 2007, and will be forever and ever, amen.
That would be the worst move Omar Minaya has made as Mets' GM, by far.
His peripherals did decline, but the degree of decline in the ERA last year far exceeded the degree of decline in his peripherals.
Well, at least not all Mets fans are being unreasonable about this.
You're still wrong about Milledge/Pelfrey for Willis, bibigon.
But... Sam's writing is so be-a-u-tiful...
Sam, I can't figure out if you're drunk or you're high...
I'm with bibigon. I do that trade if I were the Mets.
Well, that was a touching non sequitur. What exactly am I wrong about by the way?
Well, at least not all Mets fans are being unreasonable about this.
Let me ask you something, bibigon. Can you think of a single player where you have, based on your own observation and evaluation of his performance, decided that ZiPS was just off about him? If you haven't, then you're too damned wedded to projection systems, my friend.
OK, but let's see if you'll go further than that. Is it worse than Kazmir for Zambrano?
This, however, has nothing at all to do with Randy Johnson any more. You're living in the past, Levski. I'm neither drunk nor high. I'm clear-eyed and living in the present.
But hey -- thanks for the kudos on my writing. We'll see about the substance in due course.
The logic behind ZiPS and the rest isn't that complicated. RJ had a 3.75 component ERA last year. He was very good the year before that (4.5 K/BB) and fantastic the year before that. You have to age that obviously, but the output isn't nearly as bad as something as non-rigorous as "trend lines."
Pedro's 2007 ZIPS has really been bugging me. Maybe you're onto something, Sam...
No, of course not. The loss of Heilman isn't nearly so ugly for the franchise. It would just be a garden variety bad trade.
I regularly disagree with ZiPS about a player, including Johnson, who I don't think will be as good as ZiPS says. There's a long way between being as good as ZiPS projects him to be however(3.71 ERA), and his 5 ERA from last season. In fact, I posted as much in the Yankees ZiPS thread(where I also said I disagreed with the projections for three other players.)
Well, Sam, of course we'll just have to wait and see. Your prose, while beautiful, still leaves plenty of doubts about the substance. But then again, that's just me. RMMV.
I just think that RJ will do a lot better in the NL West next year, if that's where he ends up. And if his back is fine, which is a big IF. In fact, Sam, had you been arguing that his back would never be the same and he'd be a mere crippled shell of his former self, I'd have listened. But your handle of numbers and projections doesn't thrill me all that much.
Again, we indeed will see.
Isn't that exactly the myth that Bill James refuted years ago? Ceteris paribus, the pitcher with the higher strikeout rate lasts longer. (Aside: isn't it silly to talk about who will "age well" when we're discussing a 40 year old and a 42 year old? They've both already aged very well.)
Your best case scenario for RJ with the Diamondbacks is for an ERA between 5.01 and 5.6? Really?
Yes. How many 43 year old starters have been average or better? History just isn't on his side. And given his health issues, I don't see him bucking the conventional wisdom.
Sadly for Kyle C, it's all Without A Tracy...
How many 43 year old starters with 5 Cy Youngs do you have in your sample size?
How many 43 year old starters have there been in the first place? Clemens, Ryan, Paige, Niekro, and John are all I can think of. All were above average by the way. That's why Johnson has such a good PECOTA(3.52), because the comparable pitchers by age all grade out very well. Bad pitchers don't make it to age 43. At least not historically.
Perhaps. But I want to see him arrest the decline before I am willing to believe he's stabilized at 2006 performance levels. He might stabilize there, but what is there to lead us to believe he will? Why didn't he do so after 2004? 2005? Stabilization might be the safer bet, but it would have been the losing proposition after each of those seasons. Once the rock starts downhill, it gathers momentum, and gravity has its say, and before you know it, the thing reaches the bottom with a big, pulverizing crash. And it's not pretty -- especially not to the guy who decided to pay $16M in the hope it would stop falling . . . .only to see it keep on tumbling down.
Show me something -- anything -- in his record that suggests he's NOT going to keep declining. That, to me, is the single most telling thing in Johnson's last four years. I'll tell you what I'd really like to have seen: some indication of a willingness on his part to adjust. Experiment with a new pitch, trying out new patterns. But Johnson's unwillingness (or inability) to adapt makes him, to my way of thinking, an unlikely candidate to arrest his decline.
If I'm wrong, I'll be happy to admit it. I'll be even happier if it happens after the Yankees trade him away.
I haven't had the pleasure of reading the whole thread, but I agree w/what I've quoted. Are there any Yankee fans who've posted who want to see the Yankees keep RJ? The ones I've read, like me, are happy to see him traded. It's not just that he's unlikeable - which is rLr's view; it's much more that he has been bad and there's no reason to think he'll get better. If Cashman can get rid of him, get some value in return, and have salary flexibility, why wouldn't that be a good move for NY? I'd much rather see Sanchez in the rotation than Johnson.
/childish amusement.
One -- Clemens. And he was great this year, no question. But Clemens was also absolutely amazing as a 42 year old, and, AFAIK, doesn't have any serious injury issues.
My God, it's Christmas! Have you no decency???
Well, if the season started tomorrow, I think Johnson would be the Yankees' 5th starter. Of course, he wouldn't be listed/slotted as such, but I think the NYY rotation in order of preferability right now is Wang/Mussina/Pettitte/Igawa/Johnson, with Rasner/Karstens/maybe Sanchez/maybe Pavano's healthy ass cheek behind them. So, I don't think giving up Johnson really leaves the Yankees particularly exposed. Looking at their situation, I think getting any player that is somewhat useful for Johnson makes some sense, with or without Clemens, if they can get the Diamondbacks to take on a big part of the money Johnson is owed. Even if they do not sign Clemens to replace him, moving Johnson might increase their flexibility at the deadline.
Well, the Giants don't have much they can part with, and neither do the Padres, really.
Of the players mentioned, I wouldn't trade Owings or Eveland, with Ohlendorf a maybe. And I'd rather trade someone like Julio or Lyon than Vizcaino or Medders, that's for sure. If one of these two relievers had to go, however, I'd part with Vizcaino, given his service time and salary.
Oh c'mon, a Johnson/Eveland trade would be The Big Unit for The Big Everything :P
(While I'd rather have held onto Eveland, it appears I should have paid more attention to those in-season quotes that indicated the Brewers were none too please with Eveland's lack of desire to decrease his girth)
Let me guess, bibigon. You think Johnson is better than Zito, too?
Maybe now that Eveland has to pitch most of the time in the warmth of Phoenix (or Tucson) he won't need the extra insulation like he did in Milwaukee...
I think Sam has been talking about rocks and gravity all night long. Poetry in motion.
Ahh, but he was actually pitching in the more favorable climate of Nashville for most of the year, and he'd still bounce down a hill like one of those red rubber balls from childhood.
(And lest anymore think I'm saying this because he's no longer a Brewer, Harvey's and I were trading Ho-Ho jokes and conditioning quips about Eveland even before last season)
True.
(Of the three, Krynzel actually probably would have been cut in ST, since he's out of options, hasn't done jack in a while *AND* had ticked off the FO.)
It's close, but yes, for 2007, I'd probably rather have Johnson.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main