Come now. BBTF is now linking to Sid "Grampa Sports" Hartman? Nobody actually takes this guy seriously--he's the senile but loud old relative that nobody has the heart to tell him to be quiet. I'm shocked that he actually knew the names of the good Red Sox prospects. Some intern must have filled him in.

Angels should trade Willits, Weaver, and Wood and offer 140/7 yesterday. I thought Santana wanted more like 25 million per year (and he's probably worth it). If you can pay 18 million to a 3-4 win player like Torii Hunter, you should jump at a chance for Santana's 5-6 wins at 20 million.

Seriously, we're in Abe Simpson territory here. On the local sports media shows they openly mock him while he's sitting there. He blusters, everyone laughs, and let's go to commercial. If you read past the jump you'll also learn "Former Twins outfielder Lew Ford will play in Japan this year. ... The Twins have had past success in drafting Rule 5 players, including Santana, but they didn't participate this year after the player they wanted was taken by another team."

Don't link to Sid.

You never know. We might actually be linking to some talented young intern that's doing the actual writing under Sid's byline.

They should give up the prospects. In a few years, the Twins won't be able to afford them and they'll get them back.

The point is that anybody could have written this just from general knowledge. I mean:

the price to sign him is a minimum of seven years at $20 million per year, for a total of $140 million guaranteed.The Twins definitely will not meet that price.

Oh, really. Stop the freakin' presses. Sid has no actual information, just an opinion and an ego. Oh, and a soap box.

They should give up the prospects. In a few years, the Twins won't be able to afford them and they'll get them back.

It's like a Groundhog Day nightmare for the Twins, and it'll just keep getting worse.

Sid is only reliable when it comes to items in quotations. He has terrific access (because he's a Larry King type interviewer) and carries a tape recorder wherever he goes. If Sid puts it in quotes, he has it on tape. For other items, let's just say the old man is susceptible to the power of suggestion.

Exactly. You really think you could get him without Bucholz and Ellsbury? It's Santana. Even Jason Jennings last year got Bucholz, Taveras, and Hirsh.

Bucholz and Ellsbury are both very good players. But just because the Red Sox draft so well and had some great stints by them, does not make them like the Nolan Ryan and Mickey Mantle that people make them out to be. THey are still prospects. Bucholz won't pitch a no-hitter every game. Look at Anibal Sanchez. The Sox have prospects coming out of their rear. Ellsbury and Lester is a weak offer for the best pitcher in baseball. It's going to take at least one A or A+ prospect and another really good one (Bucholz and Ellsbury). GIven the market, 7/140 is a fairly reasonable request.

Ellsbury and Lester is a weak offer for the best pitcher in baseball.

still riding that one-trick pony? what team is going to give the twins an A/A+ prospect PLUS another prospect? this topic has been beaten to death, and if you're not convinced yet, you probably never will be. but let's just summarize the main point: the "value" of santana is what the market will support. right now the "price" is too high, so the product isn't selling. if the twins decide that they want to sell at a price too high for the market, no one is going to buy unless conditions in the market change for the buyers. but in any case, you're wrong. the value of santana has been set by the market at lester + prospects or ellsbury + prospects. the red sox don't need santana right now. he's a "nice to have". if things change and they need him, then you can expect their offer to rise according to their need.

aside from that: wouldn't it be tampering if santana's agent was talking to his "new" teams?

You can't say...

the "value" of santana is what the market will support.

while also saying...

the value of santana has been set by the market at lester + prospects or ellsbury + prospects.

As much as their fans and front office would like to believe it, the Red Sox do not equal "the market." Their offer hasn't yet been accepted, and we have no idea what other offers the Twins have received (it's possible that not EVERY team does all of its negotiating in the papers).

All we know right now is that what has been offered isn't acceptable to the Twins. And, as you point out, market conditions may change for the buyers (or for the sellers).

It's fun to talk winners and losers, although (1) not every deal has clear winners and losers, (2) the winners and losers in a deal can change over time, and (3) it's way too early to talk about winners and losers when a deal hasn't even been struck. I don't know "what team is going to give the twins an A/A+ prospect PLUS another prospect." But the Twins aren't being silly to ask for that, if they believe that's what Santana "should" be worth. And, equally, the Red Sox aren't being silly to offer Ellsbury and Lester, if they believe that's what Santana "should" be worth. Ultimately, the Twins will get what they perceive as fair market value for Santana, choose instead to keep him, or lower their demands.

the Red Sox aren't being silly to offer Ellsbury and Lester, if they believe that's what Santana "should" be worth.

Why should the Red Sox care what Santana "should" be worth? They ought to care what he is worth TO THEM. If Ellsbury and Lester are in the package, then the answer to that is about two wins... Lester is a competent pitcher and Ellsbury is a better-than-average option in center field. Do the math.

MSI, I assume you are a Twins fan? If Santana is worth more than two wins to the Twins, then they should keep him themselves! Or trade him to a team that has a hole in the rotation for not-quite-ready prospects who might never pan out.

They ought to care what he is worth TO THEM.

More to the point, they should know what he's worth to them and then see how little they can get him for. There's no reason for anyone to lead with their best offer, no reason to take anyone's first offer, and no reason to assume anything discussed so far is a best, worst or last position. It's all dancing, and no word is truly final until a trade is made or Opening Day (or July 31, since Johan's camp is probably no different).

Come now. BBTF is now linking to Sid "Grampa Sports" Hartman? Nobody actually takes this guy seriously--he's the senile but loud old relative that nobody has the heart to tell him to be quiet. I'm shocked that he actually knew the names of the good Red Sox prospects. Some intern must have filled him in.

This doesn't do Sid justice. He thinks he is "good friends" with ________ in the sports business. He claimed to have influenced Tom Osborne's decision to hire their new HC. He claims to be great pals with Tony LaRussa, Bobby Knight......I do read him on occasion, only competition to the Onion Sports.

no reason to assume anything discussed so far is a best, worst or last position

Of course -- but we can run the numbers ourselves and come up with a pretty good sense of how much a trade would be worth in on-field performance. Santana is three to four wins better than Lester. Ellsbury is one to two wins better than Crisp (I'm not expecting much of an offensive rebound from Crisp at this point). On-field difference: two wins.

Does a Lester/Ellsbury offer make sense? Sure, if those two wins are worth spending $20-$30M to acquire (cost of Santana/Crisp vs. Lester/Ellsbury) and there are no cheaper alternatives that offer the same benefit. But I have yet to see anybody make either assertion in simple English. Instead the arguments fall back on "fuzzy math", arguments like:

* Trading for Santana is the only chance the Red Sox will have to acquire a pitcher of this caliber in the near future. (Arguably true, but it doesn't address either of my points above.)

* How can you put a price on the best pitcher in baseball? (Admittedly not easy, but you'd better give it a shot before deciding that he's worth it. You might begin by addressing my two points above.)

* A team with Santana in the rotation would be unbeatable in October! (I guess this explains why Santana is 5-0 in the playoffs?)

The difference between ARod and Lowell is less than $20M/year, and ARod is at LEAST a two-win upgrade over Lowell. If the Red Sox are so desperate to improve their team, why not pursue this one more aggressively?

It's going to take at least one A or A+ prospect and another really good one (Bucholz and Ellsbury). GIven the market, 7/140 is a fairly reasonable request.

I don't think you're reading the market very well at all. You're acting like Santana's contract demands are not going to put off other clubs, but not even the super-rich teams in the running for him is that blase about handing out a 7 yr deal at that money.

If Santana is so valuable and risk free, why haven't the Twins signed him themselves?

If Santana is so valuable and risk free, why haven't the Twins signed him themselves?

Because they are a low revenue club.

That was easy.

If Santana is so valuable and risk free, why haven't the Twins signed him themselves?

Because Billionaire Carl Pohlad like to keep his "revenue stealing" money rather than apply it to his team. Would YOU turn down $30 million a year in guaranteed free money? If so, you'll never be an ultra-wealthy plutocrat like Carl Pohlad, and probably won't even get an invitation for a cruise on his gold-plated yacht, the famed "Thanks For the Boat, Bud."

"In the last five years, the Twins have received an average of $20 million a year in revenue sharing, but their payroll has not increased proportionately. The aggregate increase in those five years has been $16 million."

- NYT, 29 Nov 2007

Welfare for billionaires, what a country.

As much as their fans and front office would like to believe it, the Red Sox do not equal "the market." Their offer hasn't yet been accepted, and we have no idea what other offers the Twins have received (it's possible that not EVERY team does all of its negotiating in the papers).

the best offer constitutes the market value. if any team wants santana, they will have to meet or exceed the red sox offer, since it is the best one available. if another team makes a better offer, then that team will have set the LOWEST price that another team will have to meet or exceed to get santana.

The difference between ARod and Lowell is less than $20M/year, and ARod is at LEAST a two-win upgrade over Lowell. If the Red Sox are so desperate to improve their team, why not pursue this one more aggressively?

the red sox aren't desperate. they just won the world series and have the same team returning to the field for 2008. santana is not something they need. they've made the best offer they can live with for santana. if they get him, great, if not, at least they kept him away from the yanks. and the best part of it is that if the twins decide to keep santana, the yanks will probably be even LESS likely to try to trade for him at the trading deadline, since hughes and/or kennedy will have proven themselves well OR #### the bed, in which cases 1) they won't want to trade them because they're too good or 2) they won't have value. what the red sox offer did was set the price of santana slightly too high for the yanks. good move in my opinion.

(it's possible that not EVERY team does all of its negotiating in the papers).

Good point. When do you read about a Dave Dombrowski offer? Right after the trade becomes official.

I don't know if the Yankees/Red Sox like to negotiate through the papers, or their media is just too numerous and well connected that they find out everything.

For the Angels its 50/50. We heard all about the M-Cab trade that never happened, but until they dealt O-Cab for Garland I had no idea they were even thinking about dealing him. Actually, since the Miggy's got away, I kind wish they hadn't done that. Izturis can replace OC well enough if healthy but I fear they'll give too much time to Neifi Aybar.