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Friday, April 18, 2008

Statistically Speaking: Seidman: The Batting Hall of Current

Who’s in, who’s out?  Seidman takes a HOF look.

In my favorite baseball book (as of now) Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? Bill James attempts to uncover what makes a hall of fame player as well as why Player A got in and Player B did not.  While he did not necessarily find a common denominator he did notice that a large percentage of those enshrined reached certain statistical milestones.  With that in mind he created a few tests to determine the likelihood of a player getting inducted.

The test I like to examine the most is the Hall of Fame Monitor.  For a full explanation click the link of the title, but it essentially weights different milestones and awards points as players positively distance themselves from said achievements.  Anyone with a score of 100+ is considered to have a shot; anyone with 130+ is considered a virtual shoe-in.  For instance, Ken Griffey Jr. currently has a 225 and Alex Rodriguez has a 316; based on what others currently inducted have done, these two players would be no-doubters if they retired today or tomorrow.

There are currently 35 batters with 100+ not yet eligible for induction.  I thought it might be fun to show them and get your thoughts on whether or not they are worthy, as well as why or why not.  If we can get enough of a response we’ll have an official fan ballot.  In just taking a cursory scan of these 35 I have a strong sense we will find some players with 130+ that are not necessarily worthy of induction based on the standards of some.

Repoz Posted: April 18, 2008 at 06:39 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralHall of Fame

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   1. Bob Dernier Ressort Posted: April 18, 2008 at 08:52 AM (#2749445)
The Monitor figures are not adjusted for park effects, hence Todd Helton has more points than Jeff Bagwell. Helton has been an excellent player, but a clear step below Bagwell as a hitter, and I doubt that Helton would get many votes if he caught the bus today; I expect Bagwell to be inducted, though. By the same token, Larry Walker will be lucky to stay on the HOF ballot.
   2. Dizzypaco Posted: April 18, 2008 at 09:31 AM (#2749475)
The HOF monitor stopped working about 15 years ago - at least, using 100 as the in/out line. There are two reasons for this:

1) As hitting numbers skyrocketed in the early '90s, the number of players exceeding 100 did also. What would be considered impressive offensive statistics have changed quite a bit.

2) The HOF didn't expand the numbers of players inducted - if anything, it has shrunk, despite the increase in teams due to expansion, and the increase in hitting numbers.
   3. John DiFool2 Posted: April 18, 2008 at 10:59 AM (#2749623)
I'm surprised at the low showing by Kent on the Monitor. While it likely reflects what will be a contentious series of elections 6-21 years from now, this is a 2B who drove in 100 runs like clockwork 8 out of 9 years, and who made it to the postseason 6 times (past the first round albeit only twice), when the Monitor lavishly awards middle infielders whose teams get in the playoffs. I suppose he's just short of a few crucial milestones (1500 RBIs, 400 HRs, 2500 hits, 2100 at-bats as a middle infielder). I'll say right now that he will probably get in within the first 5 ballots (not the first tho).

Hmm checking the Monitor over at BBRef, I see that there's no points awarded for career RBIs-that can't be right.
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