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Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Statistically Speaking: Vindicating Derek Jeter’s fielding at short (sorta)

Pizza Cutter uses that Keitel-less attention grabbing headline to introduce his OPA! (out probability added above average) system.

Jeter, for the curious came in at -8.37, good for 35th place out of 43 qualifying shortstops.  Derek Jeter cost the Yankees eight ground ball outs last year compared to an average shortstop.  So, all this talk about Jeter being the absolute worst in baseball doesn’t hold in my system.  He’s 9th from the bottom.  Consider him vindicated.

Now, I haven’t (yet) looked at liners or pop ups, and I suppose that could tilt the balance in another direction, but I have one more question for those who have been paying close attention.  Last year, the two shortstop Gold Gloves went to Jimmy Rollins and Orlando Cabrera.  You’ll notice that they haven’t been mentioned at all in this article until the last sentence.

Rollins ranked 18th in range, 16th in hands, 11th in arm, 13th in turning DPs, 29th in catching throws, 12th in OPA! per ball and 8th in cumulative OPA!  Not bad numbers by any means, and he was usually above average, but he was middle of the pack.  (What else Troy Tulowitzki had to do, I don’t know…) Cabrera was 27th in range, 23rd in hands, 24th in arm, 18th in turning DPs, 17th in catching throws, 20th in OPA! per ball, and 22nd in cumulative OPA!  Same story.  Tony Pena, and perhaps John McDonald, even though he was a part-timer, deserved better.

Repoz Posted: June 24, 2008 at 08:58 AM | 45 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetrics

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   1. OCD SS Posted: June 24, 2008 at 09:32 AM (#2830674)
Last year, the two shortstop Gold Gloves went to Jimmy Rollins and Orlando Cabrera. You’ll notice that they haven’t been mentioned at all in this article until the last sentence.


So is taking this as proof that maybe, just maybe, Jeter didn't deserve his Gold Gloves not in the spirit of the article?
   2. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: June 24, 2008 at 09:35 AM (#2830677)
Well, if Pizza Cutter says it, it's got to be true.
   3. Chris Dial Posted: June 24, 2008 at 10:07 AM (#2830697)
Really? We're going to eschew pbp data in favor of Retrosheet data?
   4. Carl Yastrzemski, A Well-Paid Slav (GGC) Posted: June 24, 2008 at 10:25 AM (#2830707)
I suppose that it could be useful for the years before they collected play by play data.

Ya know, if you’re gonna position yourself as an anonymous online authority on sabermetrics, there are better handles than Pizza Cutter. He's a psych grad student according to his MVN profile. If I were in his shoes, I'd call myself something like Joel Jungblood.
   5. Joe C isn't Posted: June 24, 2008 at 10:27 AM (#2830710)
Well, if Pizza Cutter says it, it's got to be true.

I had the exact same thought.
   6. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: June 24, 2008 at 10:45 AM (#2830729)
I'll leave this for someone more sabermetrically inclined than I to investigate, but it does seem as though this system still needs some work. I'll buy that Michael Young is a below-average SS defensively, but I don't see how he can be the 4th worst in baseball given the information provided. He shows up on none of the bottom 5 lists, and one of the top 5 lists (though barely). It would seem as though (from my untrained eyes, backed up by information from people who should know) he has an issue with range, but that his arm is at least good.

Perhaps he is being penalized for playing so much at SS. He's not among the worst in rate stats, but in cumulative value. I would think that a per-chance measure would be more valid than a cumulative measure, because it gives a little more predictive value.
   7. Repoz Posted: June 24, 2008 at 10:51 AM (#2830735)
there are better handles than Pizza Cutter

I usually try and use Cutter's name (Russ Carlton)...but I'm busy shoving as many punk 45's as I can into my backback for Cleveland.
   8. Pizza Cutter Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:24 AM (#2830759)
On a few issues:

1) I specifically try to keep my professional identity and my online identity separate. As pointed out in my profile, I'm a graduate student in psychology, which means that in my "real job" I'm a therapist. One of my occupational hazards in my job is that we get more than our fair share of stalkers. It's strictly a safety issue on my part to try to keep my name from popping up on Google in reference to this work. (Repoz, I appreciate the links, but if you'd be so kind, might you refrain from using my real name?) Pizza Cutter was my DJ name back in college, hence why I used it.

2) Young does get penalized for playing so much at short. If you look at his per-ball stats, he's a little below average on most of them (hands aren't so good). The bottom 5 list that he appears on specifically was made to not pro-rate for playing time, but to show the actual contributions that each player made over the course of the season. The more PT you get, the more of a chance you have to do good... or to screw up.
   9. Chris Dial Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:26 AM (#2830761)
I suppose that it could be useful for the years before they collected play by play data.
I'm skeptical.
   10. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:54 AM (#2830797)
To a Jeter fan, vindicated might imply that he's a great fielder, not merely that he's far from the worst.
   11. ValueArb Posted: June 24, 2008 at 12:53 PM (#2830852)
Isn't there some set of metrics that claimed Jeter has been very good the last few years?
   12. Robert Machemer Posted: June 24, 2008 at 01:43 PM (#2830912)
Isn't there some set of metrics that claimed Jeter has been very good the last few years?
YES has a proprietary method that shows he is. Its methodology isn't open to the public, however.
   13. Swoboda is freedom Posted: June 24, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2830920)
What else Troy Tulowitzki had to do, I don’t know…)

About what Adam Everett had to do when he was racking up all those Gold Gloves.
   14. Cabbage Posted: June 24, 2008 at 02:33 PM (#2830977)
Isn't there some set of metrics that claimed Jeter has been very good the last few years?

Even THA RINGZZ11! don't come to his aid.
   15. David Nieporent Posted: June 24, 2008 at 02:41 PM (#2830989)
To a Jeter fan, vindicated might imply that he's a great fielder, not merely that he's far from the worst.
A fan of Alanis Morissette would think that Derek Jeter's fielding is ironic. The rest of us would just think the word "vindicated" was.
   16. Pizza Cutter Posted: June 24, 2008 at 02:48 PM (#2831007)
A little too ironic. And yeah I really do think...
   17. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:36 PM (#2831850)
Am I in the minority in thinking that if Jeter got run over by a pizza wagon tomorrow, he shouldn't go into the HOF? I mentioned in another thread that I dock him positionally for his D and consider him a 3Bman. On my list, then, he's a full season short of Ron Cey's career, and that's not a HOFer.
   18. Boots Day Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:47 PM (#2831856)
A fan of Alanis Morissette would think that Derek Jeter's fielding is ironic. The rest of us would just think the word "vindicated" was.

Dashboard Confessional fans would think that Jeter's fielding was vindicated.
   19. kevin Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:47 PM (#2831857)
Pizza, if you think Jeter was only 8 ground ball outs in the negative, I would suggest he get out of his chair ans watch a baseball game or two.
   20. kevin Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:51 PM (#2831860)
One of my occupational hazards in my job is that we get more than our fair share of stalkers.


Are any of them hot?
   21. Boots Day Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:55 PM (#2831867)
I mentioned in another thread that I dock him positionally for his D and consider him a 3Bman. On my list, then, he's a full season short of Ron Cey's career, and that's not a HOFer.

That reminds me of an old joke: How many legs does a dog have if you call his tail a leg? Answer: Four. Just because you call his tail a leg doesn't make it a leg.

You can call Derek Jeter a third baseman all you want, and it doesn't make him a third baseman. He's a shortstop. Even if he plays the position suboptimally, there's still more value in that than there is in playing third base.
   22. Chris Dial Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:56 PM (#2831868)
The more PT you get, the more of a chance you have to do good... or to screw up.
In general, the more chances you get the more your "score" will move toward average (if you are bad, you do better and vice versa).
   23. kevin Posted: June 25, 2008 at 12:04 AM (#2831870)
Even if he plays the position suboptimally, there's still more value in that than there is in playing third base.


Tell that to the bullpen. It will comfort them when they're dragging ass in August.
   24. cardsfanboy Posted: June 25, 2008 at 12:27 AM (#2831884)
17. The Guiding Light of BTF Conservatism (arkitekton) Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:36 PM (#2831850)

Am I in the minority in thinking that if Jeter got run over by a pizza wagon tomorrow, he shouldn't go into the HOF? I mentioned in another thread that I dock him positionally for his D and consider him a 3Bman. On my list, then, he's a full season short of Ron Cey's career, and that's not a HOFer


I would hope you were in a vast minority, I can't imagine Jeter not being HOF'er right now, even though I think he is the most overated player of my generation (and any idiot that points to the crappy defensive, bad jump play that involve Jeter catching a ball and running 3 steps is the best play of the year should be shot for the betterment of mankind). To claim he isn't HOF worthy right now, is ignorant in my honest opinion.
   25. Pizza Cutter Posted: June 25, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2831901)
Chris, the more chances you get, the more your score will move toward your true talent level. If fielding is something that is random (requires no skill), only then will it move toward average.
   26. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 02:33 AM (#2831928)
You can call Derek Jeter a third baseman all you want, and it doesn't make him a third baseman. He's a shortstop. Even if he plays the position suboptimally, there's still more value in that than there is in playing third base.


Conversely, just putting a pillar of salt at shortstop doesn't make it a shortstop. My point was that we compare the relative values of the various positions on a baseball diamond all the time. We could, if we knew enough, say that an average defensive third baseman has as much defensive value as a shortstop who gets to, say, half a ball less per game than the average shortstop (with other fielding metrics equal). That's Jeter. The other guy, we'll call him Penguin, is an average 3bman. That's as valuable as a SS with crummy range. Except Penguin has played 175 games more than the crummy SS, and they both have an OPS+ of 121. Nobody, really, thinks of Penguin as a HOFer. Why think of the other guy, who (as of today) has a shorter career, as a HOFer?

edit: btw, to take you literally, it's clear that at some point a suboptimal SS is worse than an average 3bman. That can't be in doubt. The only thing that's in doubt is the location of that point?
   27. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 02:40 AM (#2831934)
To claim he isn't HOF worthy right now, is ignorant in my honest opinion.


Well, I don't doubt your honesty, but what about the point I made? I understand that if the pizza wagon nails Derek tonight, he's in--but should he go in, on a just and beautiful planet? Should crappy-fielding SSs who should be playing 3b or 1b or LF or RF really go into the HOF after 1900 games of 121 OPS+?

Fwiw, on the grounds of awful defense, I don't think Manny Ramirez is a HOFer either.
   28. DCW3 * Posted: June 25, 2008 at 02:48 AM (#2831936)
Except Penguin has played 175 games more than the crummy SS, and they both have an OPS+ of 121. Nobody, really, thinks of Penguin as a HOFer. Why think of the other guy, who (as of today) has a shorter career, as a HOFer?

Jeter doesn't really have a shorter career, though. Yes, Cey played more games, but Jeter already has about 400 more plate appearances (Cey was used much more frequently as a PH than Jeter, and more often removed in the late innings of games). And just comparing their OPS+ ignores Jeter's vastly better baserunning and OBP--he's been a significantly better offensive player than Cey was over the course of his career.
   29. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 01:36 PM (#2832231)
Jeter doesn't really have a shorter career, though. Yes, Cey played more games, but Jeter already has about 400 more plate appearances (Cey was used much more frequently as a PH than Jeter, and more often removed in the late innings of games). And just comparing their OPS+ ignores Jeter's vastly better baserunning and OBP--he's been a significantly better offensive player than Cey was over the course of his career.


If you're gonna bring up facts... These are good points, DC. We can throw in the postseason too, as an assist to Jeter. Now Ron Santo, on the other hand--it's a lot tougher than with Cey to argue that, as of today, Jeter is a better player
   30. Joe C isn't Posted: June 25, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2832239)
Well, I don't doubt your honesty, but what about the point I made? I understand that if the pizza wagon nails Derek tonight, he's in--but should he go in, on a just and beautiful planet? Should crappy-fielding SSs who should be playing 3b or 1b or LF or RF really go into the HOF after 1900 games of 121 OPS+?

You mean who should be playing CF? (come on, 1B? really?) The fact remains, he played SS, and so even if the defense was lousy, he still played that position, which of course means his off3ense compared to position was superb.

Fwiw, on the grounds of awful defense, I don't think Manny Ramirez is a HOFer either.

Unless you believe that he was like -30 every year, this is just patently silly.
   31. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 25, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2832240)
We could, if we knew enough, say that an average defensive third baseman has as much defensive value as a shortstop who gets to, say, half a ball less per game than the average shortstop (with other fielding metrics equal). That's Jeter.

Except that's not Jeter, that's way overstating his defensive deficiencies. In his worst years, he misses a ball every 6-8 games that a normal SS would get. In his best years, he's an average SS. Over his career, he's nothing close to what you're describing him as.
   32. Toolsy McClutch Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:25 PM (#2832302)
I've made the point, and fought the fight, that Jeff Kent should be compared to 1bs, not 2bs because of his simply atrocious range. I think he was probably one of the worst fielders I've ever seen. Like softball bad.

But that can't be true, and the numbers don't back it up. So I admitted defeat and move on.

The point though, as is said above, is that someone somewhere *must* have been so bad at their position that they have less defensive value that an average fielder at an "easier" position. Manny. Kingman. Kent. Someone, somewhere must have been put in the wrong position by a coach. How do we handle those guys?
   33. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2832309)
Someone, somewhere must have been put in the wrong position by a coach. How do we handle those guys?


Same with every other guy. If they're really that bad, then their defensive numbers will be atrocious and negate any position boost they'd get on offense.
   34. Joe C isn't Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:36 PM (#2832312)
The point though, as is said above, is that someone somewhere *must* have been so bad at their position that they have less defensive value that an average fielder at an "easier" position. Manny. Kingman. Kent. Someone, somewhere must have been put in the wrong position by a coach. How do we handle those guys?

Kyle C beat me to it. Just what he said.
   35. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:47 PM (#2832318)
Except that's not Jeter, that's way overstating his defensive deficiencies. In his worst years, he misses a ball every 6-8 games that a normal SS would get. In his best years, he's an average SS. Over his career, he's nothing close to what you're describing him as.

In addition, there is more to SS defense than fielding ground balls. Jeter is well above average on outfield relay throws - of no small significance given some of the Yanks' outfield arms in the last decade plus. He also seems considerably better at fielding balls in the air, and pretty much covers everything from the 3rd base stands (occasionally falling in) to behind 2nd base (where he's been known to land on the 2nd baseman while making a catch).
   36. kevin Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:58 PM (#2832325)
In addition, there is more to SS defense than fielding ground balls. Jeter is well above average on outfield relay throws - of no small significance given some of the Yanks' outfield arms in the last decade plus. He also seems considerably better at fielding balls in the air, and pretty much covers everything from the 3rd base stands (occasionally falling in) to behind 2nd base (where he's been known to land on the 2nd baseman while making a catch).


If this were true, it would be reflected in his range factor. his range factor is atyrocious, which means one of two things: 1) his ability on infield flies is overrated. 2) his range on infield flies isn't overrated but he's so gawdawful on grounders that he still has crappy range anyway.

It doesn't really matter why he has no range, all it matters is he has none, and should be considered a crappy fielder because of it.
   37. Boots Day Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:59 PM (#2832327)
Note that all the things the Clapper notes in No. 35 are things that fall beyond the purview of our fielding metrics.

Don't get me wrong: I despise Derek Jeter, and I hope he hits .074 for the rest of his career. But to pretend that he's historically bad out there at shortstop is unjustifiable. I have no doubt his fielding has ranged from mediocre to poor, but it's not like he's Howard Johnson or anything.
   38. Shooty misses Bill King Posted: June 25, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2832329)
Don't get me wrong: I despise Derek Jeter, and I hope he hits .074 for the rest of his career. But to pretend that he's historically bad out there at shortstop is unjustifiable. I have no doubt his fielding has ranged from mediocre to poor, but it's not like he's Howard Johnson or anything.

Dammit, Boots, you won't get anywhere on the internet taking the most reasonable, fairest point of view possible.
   39. TVerik fondly recalls Todd Palin's facial hair Posted: June 25, 2008 at 04:27 PM (#2832351)
If we're trying to take a historical look at Jeter's defense for HOF consideration, I think we need to do some sort of evaluation of the people already enshrined there. Some of us know their defense by reputation, but the PBP data just doesn't exist in order to rate it as we rate Jeterian defense.

While it would be immensely satisfying to Jeter-haters to label him as historically bad, it would be like saying that George W Bush is the worst President of all time because you've exhaustively compared him to Bill Clinton and to George HW Bush.
   40. Blackadder Posted: June 25, 2008 at 05:01 PM (#2832371)
I mentioned on another thread that I think Santo and Jeter are pretty close, with a slight edge for Santo. Cey is somewhat behind both, but is is probably close to the lowest-rung legit hall of famer than people give him credit.
   41. Danny Posted: June 25, 2008 at 05:35 PM (#2832382)
Fwiw, on the grounds of awful defense, I don't think Manny Ramirez is a HOFer either.

Unless you believe that he was like -30 every year, this is just patently silly.


If he were -30 every year, he'd be a below average player.
   42. Danny Posted: June 25, 2008 at 05:36 PM (#2832384)
Note that all the things the Clapper notes in No. 35 are things that fall beyond the purview of our fielding metrics.

Which is very convenient...
   43. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: June 25, 2008 at 06:04 PM (#2832401)
If he were -30 every year, he'd be a below average player.

He's no Jason Michaels, that's for sure.

-MGL
   44. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: June 25, 2008 at 06:08 PM (#2832406)
We could, if we knew enough, say that an average defensive third baseman has as much defensive value as a shortstop who gets to, say, half a ball less per game than the average shortstop (with other fielding metrics equal). That's Jeter.

Except that's not Jeter, that's way overstating his defensive deficiencies. In his worst years, he misses a ball every 6-8 games that a normal SS would get. In his best years, he's an average SS. Over his career, he's nothing close to what you're describing him as.



The SS-3B defensive adjustment is on the order of 7-10 runs per season. It doesn't require allowing 80 extra singles for this line of thinking to be valid.
   45. OCD SS Posted: June 25, 2008 at 08:40 PM (#2832663)
Note that all the things the Clapper notes in No. 35 are things that fall beyond the purview of our fielding metrics.

Which is very convenient...


No kidding. Of all the things Jeter is supposedly "above average" at, how many times do they actually happen in a game? Unless the Yankees have pitching staff that specializes in pop ups, there just aren't enough that Jeter catches that another SS wouldn't, or another fielder wouldn't (taking charge of balls that pretty much anyone can catch isn't an example of great range) to make up for the number of ground balls he lets through the IF.

The idea that his relay throws somehow make his fielding OK is a new one for me. How many extra outs has Jeter come up with this season on relay throws? Serriously? Any?
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