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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, April 18, 2009Taibbi: Brian Cashman: The Bad LieutenantGambler. Thief. Junkie. Killer. General Manager.
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Well, for those of us who dislike the Yankees he's kind of a favored figure since he combines mediocre performance with a bullet-proof media and fan rep. That is the combination that enables $200 mil to generate lack of pitching depth, poor roster construction, aging, and overall disappointment year after year. In other words, he's doing a helluva job in our view!
Actually, he's hampered with the one thing that most teams usually has an opportunity at, being a bad team. It's no coincidence that the last great dynasty rose from the ashes of Stump Merrill, Mel Hall and Sam Millitello led Yankees. If the Yankees were given the opportunity to be a last place team for three years and restock their farm system with high draft picks and get roster flexibility via attrition of older players with huge contracts, I'd think Cashman would actually take it. But given that the team is tied in to filling up an outrageously overpriced new stadium, a regional sports network and a corporate brand that sells not only jerseys and caps, but also steaks and sports concessions, the business realities will force the Yankees to continue to upgrade by plugging in holes with big names. Cashman's reluctance to lose Phil Hughes and IPK via trade for Santana is actually a great move considering that one year later, he has these same players and three shiny new FA filling out their rotation and first base.
Go for it. Let us know how that works out.
You know, Millitello would have been a hell of a pitcher if he hadn't blown out his shoulder.
Wholly agree with you on the presentation of the points...the article is quite overdone.
If the Yankees were given the opportunity to be a last place team for three years and restock their farm system with high draft picks and get roster flexibility via attrition of older players with huge contracts, I'd think Cashman would actually take it.
This argument kind of ignores the reality that the Yankees are able to take as much talent in the draft as anyone because they can spend far over slot and far more internationally. The decision to keep aging vets and extend them, rather than let them walk is a choice borne, best we can tell, from either a lack of understanding of the aging curve or a lack of will. In either case, it doesn't suggest he's a victim of circumstance to me, it suggests he's not doing a great job assessing what the team needs going forward.
Is there a GM you can't say this about? Benifest?
Wholly agree with you on the presentation of the points...the article is quite overdone.
That's surprising. I would have bet that you had written it.
They would not have been able to sign Santana to an extension *and* sign Sabathia, so when the choice is between Santana or Sabathia, Hughes and Kennedy, it's something of a no-brainer.
Now, if they hadn't been able to sign Sabathia, then Cashman would have made a mistake. But New York was always the most likely landing spot for Sabathia. It was a worthwhile gamble.
Why wouldn't they? They signed Sabathia, and then threw 5/$82.5 at Burnett. For roughly an extra $5M a season, they could have had Santana and Sabathia, rather than Sabathia and Burnett - the difference between the Burnett and Santana contracts was roughly equivalent to a Nady or Swisher contract, or only a bit more than a Marte.
EDIT: Also, the signing of Burnett and Sabathia also ate some draft picks for the Yankees, which means fewer prospects in the minor league system.
The Yankees *do* have a budget. It's just a massive one.
Probably, but I remain unconvinced that the Yankees did the right thing. As I said last winter, Ian Kennedy is not a guy to hold up a deal for a Cy Young-type pitcher; neither is Melky Cabrera. It comes down to Philip Hughes. Ryan's points in #11 are good ones and the Yankees might conceivably have made post-season last year with Santana.
I think they're pretty happy now that they have Swisher and Burnett (and Hughes and Kennedy), rather than Santana.
You also must remember that everyone way overestimated the cost of Santana (both prospects and $).
Or the difference in being able to outbid everyone on Tex. There's an extra 40 million at the end of Santana's contract that you have to count to.
As I said last winter, Ian Kennedy is not a guy to hold up a deal for a Cy Young-type pitcher
I wonder if Kennedy is going to go down as the greatest AAA pitcher to never make it in the Majors.
It comes down to Philip Hughes.
Who apparently looks great to start the season!
Scott Ruffcorn is my personal gold standard. With the White Sox:
Triple-A: 30-9, 3.31 ERA, 3:1 K/BB
White Sox: 0-5, 9.68 ERA, 1:3 K/BB
Actually, there isn't - over the 2009 to 2013 years, Burnett will make $82.5M, while Santana will make $113M, or a difference of $6M per season. After 2013, Burnett becomes a free agent, and Santana has a $5.5M buyout. There also the difference of the deferred money in Santana's contract ($5M a season, deferred at 1.25%), which brings down the overall cost of him. Burnett, on the other hand, has no deferred money.
The deferred money alone brings the difference between the Burnett and Santana contracts closer by about $2M a season - effectively, the Mets are paying Santana only $4M more a season than the Yankees are paying Burnett. That $4M is the same amount the Yankees are paying Marte, without who they almost certainly could have survived.
EDIT: This all is also not intended to say that the Yankees should have acquired Santana and Sabathia, but rather than I disagree with the statement that they woulnd't have been able to sign both Santana and Sabathia.
That was very confusing for a moment, but I think I've got my head wrapped around it. But, per Cots:
# $5M deferred annually at 1.25% compound interest (payable June 30 seven years after season in which salary was earned), reducing present-day value of package to $123.1M
So the value of the contract with the deferred money is still 123.1 million. Which is still 40+ million more than AJ is making. 19 of it would have had to have been paid last year, and based on the Yankee spending over the last few years, I don't think they could have added 19 more million dollars last year (they lowered payroll this year). The other option would have been to wait a year to sign him after trading, but I don't think that would have made sense because then you'd just be signing him as a free agent. So maybe they could have afforded it this year, but I don't think that they could have afforded him last year. I realize I'm changing the goal posts a bit here, but I hadn't thought it through completely.
It's $40M more than AJ, but only $20M more for the years AJ is under contract.
19 of it would have had to have been paid last year, and based on the Yankee spending over the last few years, I don't think they could have added 19 more million dollars last year (they lowered payroll this year).
Andy Pettitte made $16M for last season's performance. There's Santana's money for last season. Of course, that also assumes the Yankees could have stalled Pettitte long enough to finish any talks about Santana. Given that Pettitte was willing to only negotiate with the Yankees this offseason, it's probably a reasonable bet.
Of course, swapping out Pettitte for Santana doesn't solve the back of the rotation and injury problems the Yankees suffered through last season, but it does create a more reliable front of the rotation.
But it was a two year deal and he was pretty important to the 07 team.
Of course, that also assumes the Yankees could have stalled Pettitte long enough to finish any talks about Santana. Given that Pettitte was willing to only negotiate with the Yankees this offseason, it's probably a reasonable bet.
I still don't think they could have stalled him for a year and change! There's been plenty of wasteful spending on the Yanks the last few years, I'm not trying to absolve Cashman of that. But as of the winter 07/spring 08, they had zero financial flexibility. They were essentially forced to resign Posada, Mo and A-rod (their leaving would have left gigantic holes with no reasonable alternative in the Yankee lineup) and they didn't have any big money players they could have traded away without having to eat most of the contract. That's definitely Cashman's fault (especially that stupid Matsui deal). But I don't think there's any easy way to put the Yanks in a position to sign Santana without them having a down year in one year or another.
Even last year, they were probably the 4th best team in the AL, only the surprising surge of the D-rays kept them out of the playoffs.
It was sort of a 2-year deal. They signed him to a 1+1 in 2007, then declined his option for 2008, then accepted arbitration before signing a one-year for 2008, at $16M.
So, you're wrong about the 2 year deal in 2007, but (more importantly, since it undercuts my argument about the 2008 money just sitting there) I'm wrong about the option for them to stall Pettitte in 2008 - if he declined arb, then they couldn't use him as a fallback if Santana talks fell through, and since he accepted arb, they couldn't wait to see how the Santana talks went.
A question: was the Matsui deal generally considered to be one organized and executed by Cashman, or is it more like the Wells deal in Toronto, or the Jojima deal in Seattle, where it's generally considered to be a matter of ownership stepping in and overriding their GM?
I think that one was squarely on Cashman's head, but to be honest I don't know. I don't remember it getting much coverage at the time, even googling it now, I can't find much written about it.
I don't think Posada was a particularly good signing, but there weren't (and aren't) any better options for them, so it was kind of a "best we can do" signing. Hopefully it works out reasonably well in the end.
I think that Japanese revenue is shared, so while Matsui might bring in extra cash from domestic purchases by Japanese born fans in the US, it's not clear that he's bringing in a significant amount, especially when you're talking about a team that is already making the most money in the league. Matsui was a 31 year old bad corner outfielder with limited athleticism and a pretty good bat. From strictly a baseball sense, those aren't really guys you want to lock up for big money through 35 typically. Maybe the value of his marketing was greater than I am giving it credit, but I didn't like the signing the day it happened and it looks worse now.
It's also surprising to see Mariano remaining one of the top few relievers.
This does not surprise me in the least, Mo is immortal. The Posada thing is surprising though. He's thrown out 40% of baserunners this year.
They've had the highest payroll in the game for (more-or-less) the last decade, yet they haven't won a WS since 2000, and missed the playoffs last year with a $200M+ payroll. For a lot of people, that qualifies as a collapse.
Hey, I'm not disagreeing with you (for once). Personally, after no Blue Jay playoff appearances for the last 15 years, I'd be pretty happy if they started emulating the lack of success the Yankees have suffered through under Cashman's reign.
i hear about this in the media all the time, but i (perhaps surprisingly) almost never hear these complaints from other yankee fans in real life. just about every fan i know is disappointed at the lack of world series/a.l. pennants and at not making the postseason last year but understand that realistically the team is still successful, especially considering how hard the division just became. the most common people i hear opine about how much of a failure the yankees as an organization are are fans of other teams looking for fodder to belittle the team with.
I think one of the issues with the Cashman Yankees is that the best argument against Cashman's performance is not that they collapsed on the field (unless you just want to Count the Ringz!), but that their payroll became bloated to the point of absurdity and perhaps to the point that they've missed on on important opportunities - I'm principally thinking about Beltran.
I don't have the exact figures handy at the moment, but I once figured out the Yanks payroll as a percentage of average payrolls. It was something like 166% from 1996-2001 and more like 225% since then. That's a difference of something like 300M. Sure maybe it doesn't matter because the Yanks can (or could?) print money, but that's serious money and it makes it hard to accept the GM of that team as someone with serious interest in payroll flexibility and efficiency.
At the very least, it sure seems likely to me that if the Yanks payroll was closer to 165% of average instead of 225% that the Yankees would have signed Beltran in the winter of 2004/05.
While it may be pretty to think that allowed to rebuild Cashman would all of a sudden do a good gob with the draft and player development, but 10+ years into his tenure that's still mostly a whole lot of speculation without much supporting evidence.
The problem is that Cashman can't afford to have too many off-years. He has to try to win in the short term and long term, and knows that the long term won't matter to him unless they win in the short term as well. Thus they have to add years and a few million in salary to ensure they get the best free agents that they can. So they end up with 2 years and $35 million of a player that has little value to them. Add in an ownership that will often overrule it's GM, and you basically have a formula for a $200 million payroll that may not be big enough to consistently win.
Well, isn't the solution to this having a robust farm system that is pushing talented players onto the major league team?
Cashman seems to have beleived that simply declaring the Ian Kennedys and Melky Cabreras of the world untouchable means that he has succeeded in delivering significant yong talent to his aged roster.
Weren't the Yankees one slot away from drafting Porcello before the Tigers took him? The Yankees have been able to get by with players that fall into their lap because of signability issues, but having to draft at the bottom of each round and losing picks due to free agent signings makes developing a strong farm system pretty hard. And I think Cashman's job of cobbling together a bullpen from other team's spare parts and castoffs has been superb. He's also augmented the depth in the farm system by holding on to players like Austin Jackson, Mark Melancon and Hughes.
It's basically impossible to judge how well he's done at building a winning team, because no one seems to agree what the standards are for a $200M+ payroll club. It's hard to say he's done really badly on that front, since 2008 was the first time they've missed the playoffs in forever.
On the farm system, though, the judgment is relatively simple, because we can judge the Yankees against a wide variety of other good, well-capitalized clubs. The Yankees have made a really big deal about re-stocking the farm system and building from within (as well as from without, the two will always been complementary when you're the Yankees) over the past several years. This process has produced Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, Dellin Betances, Jose Tabata, Melky Cabrera, Austin Jackson, Brett Gardner, Jesus Montero, and you can extend the list as you like. Right now, Joba Chamberlain is a solid contributor at the major league level, and the jury is out on everyone else. In a few years, we'll have a much better sense of how well Cashman has done with the farm system. Given that most of the guys who've been through the high minors have not made much of a mark in the majors, it'd be hard to say Cashman's done superbly great, but there's a big region between very good and not good in which he could still land.
Anthony Claggett says hi!
More seriously, Cashman has been in charge since 1998. How long has he been "superb" at cobbling together bullpens from spare parts? The last half of last year and a couple weeks of this year? As with so many things about Cashman's tenure that a thin, thin bit of evidence used to make wild declarative statements. Maybe starting now - Anthony Claggett not withstanding - he will start to do that, but it is not his track record.
Again, thin speculation for a guy who's been in charge of 11 drafts. The best evidence that he would be good at building a farm is that in his 10th draft he almost had the chance to draft Porcello? I suppose we could wonder if Gerrit Cole had slipped to the Yankees too...
I just have a hard time seeing the evidence for Cashman being any better than a middle of the road GM. The tenacity with which Yankee fans seem to want to hold onto his mediocrity is odd to me.
No, I don't beleive the relationship between player cost and player talent is speculative. It's not a perfect relationship to be sure, but it's quite a bit more than mere speculation.
And I suppose I should note that the thing that primarily skews that relationship is a productive farm system, ie that thing Cashman does by declaring Melky Cabrera untouchable and almost drafting Rick Porcello.
I don't know the extent to which Cashman is or is not directly responsible for some of the things that have occurred during his tenure. I also don't beleive that Yankee fans who remove any blame from Cashman for so many things know as much as they think they do.
But I do know that they are not consistent in the positions they take. If Cashman is blameless for the poor draft and poor player development prior to 2005, then why does he receive credit for the good job the Yankees did internationally (Cano, the good Wang, etc) prior to 2005?
If Torre and that Tampa contingent hamstrung Cashman's roster moves prior to 2005, then why bring up 1998-2005? Shouldn't we hold Cashman "blameless" for the Yankees success in that period too? In the "true Cashman years" of 2005-2008 the Yankees have outspent the average team by more than 100% and made the playoffs 3 out 4 times. I don't see that and the last 4 drafts as the track record of a clearly very good GM.
Cashman didn't have complete control in that time, but he had some. The extent is everyone's guess. It is generally considered (at least that's what I mostly heard) that Cashman had mostly control over free agents and trades, except for ones that Boss/Tampa had to have (Sheffield, Johnson, Womack). He had very little control over draft, but, since international signings were at that time usually over longer period of time, he probably had greater input. Who pushed more for Wang and Soriano, nobody knows, but I would guess that both Tampa and Cashman were for both of them. Based on his early moves, I would say that he tried to get as much young pitching as possible and that he tried to give Torre many relievers, essentially what he did now, but since Torre preferred experienced veterans, he had to get them those.
I wouldn't call Cashman genius, but I think he was at least average to above average. Many of his moves which were great at the time fell apart. If Weaver pitched above-average, and Vazquez like an ace, like most of the experts considered them to be (weaver should have been above-average with ace potential, and Vazquez clear ace), we would all say that Cashman is a genius.
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