The Rays’ AL East lead stands at 2 1/2 games entering tonight’s finale, with respective aces Scott Kazmir of Tampa Bay and Daisuke Matsuzaka set to square off.

Dice K ain't no ace

Dice K ain't no ace

133 ERA+ and 9 wins (in just 13 starts) are best in Beantown. He walks too many guys and throws too many pitches, but he's always welcomed on any staff I'm putting together.

I'll be there tonight, should be a whole lotta fun. Be nice if Kazmir would get past the fifth inning though, the bullpen is a bit tired now.

Sox are 3-14 in domes this year. Beyond pathetic. And Kazmir's always owned them. Not good at all.

Wouldn't Boston be better served, even in the long run, by allowing Matsuzaka to stay in games just a bit longer? He hasn't reached 120 pitches yet this year, and only topped 120 in 5 starts last year. I think he's proven in Japan that he's an exception to the rule. I don't know why they wouldn't let him get into the 130s.

I think he's proven in Japan that he's an exception to the rule.

In Japan he only pitched once a week. In America he was much better on longer rest. Not a sign that he should pitch more in each game

133 ERA+ and 9 wins (in just 13 starts) are best in Beantown. He walks too many guys and throws too many pitches, but he's always welcomed on any staff I'm putting together.

I'm borderline excited for his BABIP to come to normality, HR/FB to double and LOB% drop and the "what's wrong with Matsuzaka" pleas to come out. xFIP of 5.03.

Matsuzaka recently came off the DL, having suffered from insufficiently explained shoulder fatigue. No way he's going to be stretching out much this year.

Sox are 3-14 in domes this year. Beyond pathetic. And Kazmir's always owned them. Not good at all.

Reverse lock!

I'm borderline excited for his BABIP to come to normality, HR/FB to double and LOB% drop and the "what's wrong with Matsuzaka" pleas to come out. xFIP of 5.03.

Yes, projections should incorporate only three months of data, never more than that.

Yes, projections should incorporate only three months of data, never more than that.

OK 4.42 xFIP last year too. Except now he's striking out fewer and walking more and FB velocity is down .7 mph which is somewhat significant.

How severely payroll-constrained do the Rays expect to be over the next few years?

Their opening day payroll was $44MM this year, which is actually an increase from the $25-35 MM range they've been in for years. It looks like pay-raises and arbitration-eligible players could push next year's payroll north of $60MM.

Will the Rays be able to support a higher payroll than that so they can fill in the cracks in the offseason? Or will they struggle to even support that high a payroll (a la the Marlins), and be forced to sell off pieces as Kazmir et al get expensive? Or somewhere in between?

How severely payroll-constrained do the Rays expect to be over the next few years?

Not very. Kazmir and Longoria are signed to team friendly deals. Crawford and Pena still have a couple years left on their current deals. I don't think any of their pitchers projects to make a killing in arbitration...

EDIT: The only player that will give them "trouble" is Upton who, like his brother, seems FA bound.

I pegged last nights attendance at 65/35 Rays fans. My friend had it at 60/40. Either way, it was a good night for Rays baseball. I have never seen that many fans at the Trop (31000+).

BTW, Garza was hitting between 94-96 on the in-house Jugs radar all night. Impressive.

Not very. Kazmir and Longoria are signed to team friendly deals. Crawford and Pena still have a couple years left on their current deals. I don't think any of their pitchers projects to make a killing in arbitration...

They have done an excellent job cost-controlling players, but they can't avoid salary creep as their young talent ages.

Kazmir/Crawford/Pena/Iwamura have built in escalating salaries in their long-term contracts, so their combined cost goes from $17MM this year, to $25MM next year, to $32MM in 2010.

It looks like Navarro, Gomes, Jackson, Gross, and Bartlett are all arbitration-eligible starting next year, and Upton and Garza are arb-eligible for 2010.

It looks to me like they are staring at a $70MM plus payroll in 2010, assuming they don't add any free agent talent.

I can do the salary calculations, but I'm more interested in what they can afford based on revenue sharing and media revenue.

If they can afford that $70MM, they will probably be OK given the depth of their farm system. If they can afford more, they have the potential to be a powerhouse. If they can't afford $70, they're going to have to make a lot of tough decisions.

If they can afford that $70MM, they will probably be OK given the depth of their farm system. If they can afford more, they have the potential to be a powerhouse. If they can't afford $70, they're going to have to make a lot of tough decisions.

It's important to consider that, to date, according to ESPN, they're pulling in 20,000 fans a night. Any kind of uptick in attendance (which seems likely due to their present success) has to boost their payroll threshold, right?

And, frankly, not to be too much of a simpleton, but if this team is a championship caliber team over the next 2-3 years and they decide they can't afford a $70m payroll, it's time to move them somewhere else.

EDIT TO ADD: I think they'll be fine. If they continue on their current trend, the fans have to come out, don't they?

EDIT TO ADD: I think they'll be fine. If they continue on their current trend, the fans have to come out, don't they?

One would think. How have the Buccaneers done in attendance since they've started having as many good years as bad ones? (They were for years of course the NFL's poster boy for futility.)

Of course, I hear the economy there is a mess. The Gulf Coast seems to be foreclosure central.

Just quickly skimming the ESPN pages, the Bucs have been around 99% filled on average for the past few years. Football, of course, is different- even bad teams come close to selling out every week, so I'm not sure if there's much comparison.

And, frankly, not to be too much of a simpleton, but if this team is a championship caliber team over the next 2-3 years and they decide they can't afford a $70m payroll, it's time to move them somewhere else.

Not necessarily.

The A's have gone 785-593 since 2000 with an average of a $50MM payroll. They averaged just over 25,000 fans during that time period.

The A's have stayed competitive by trading away players as they get expensive and constantly reloading. My gut says that Tampa may have to adapt a similar strategy based on their market and fanbase. It's going to be even tougher in the AL East.

Looks like I won't be going tonight, friend went down to get the tickets and it's sold out already.

As for the payroll question, the Tampa Bay area is not a small market. There's a ton of untapped revenue potential around here that they're just starting to get into. It takes some time of course, winning doesn't cause a team's attendance (especially for one with no tradition or history) to go from horrible to great in just a couple months, but there's plenty of money out there. By 2010 they should have no trouble supporting a mid-range or better payroll if they keep winning.

As I've said before, the Rays are now being run by a group of people who have a plan and who know what they are doing. They'll be fine going forward.

-- MWE

Wouldn't Boston be better served, even in the long run, by allowing Matsuzaka to stay in games just a bit longer? He hasn't reached 120 pitches yet this year, and only topped 120 in 5 starts last year. I think he's proven in Japan that he's an exception to the rule. I don't know why they wouldn't let him get into the 130s.

They did that a lot in the first half of last year (4 of his last 6 starts before the ASB were 120+ pitch efforts), which may have had something to do with his 5.50 2nd half ERA...

Last night, there was a lot of warning track power from Red Sox hitters. That was frustrating.

So far, the key difference in this series has been that the Devil Rays are getting two-out hits with RISP and the Red Sox aren't. Also frustrating.

The Sox are also issuing a whole bunch of 2 out walks to set up those 2 out hits, which is completely maddening.

They did that a lot in the first half of last year (4 of his last 6 starts before the ASB were 120+ pitch efforts), which may have had something to do with his 5.50 2nd half ERA...

Classic Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.

It may have had, but probably did not considering he threw pitches at higher rates for a decade in Japan.

Has anyone noticed Upton's improved BB/K? 65/154 last year. This year he's on pace for 111/140.