Between this and the Dontrelle extension, I challenge the denizens of BTF to explain to me why the people running the Detroit Tigers are not stupid.

Dave Dombrowski has put together some good teams, but the past couple of years have been disappointing, to say the least. This team could lose 100 games next year.

Does Dombrowski not realize that Edwin Jackson just isn't a very good pitcher?

Dombrowski is betting on the fact that Jackson has finally turned the corner. He's only 25, so his best years might still be ahead of him. I think giving up Joyce was too much of a gamble though.

Joyce isn't exactly great shakes, and though Edwin Jackson is probably not the stud he was made out to be, he seems like a nice durable backend SP.
And the reward is fairly high if he ever turns that mythical corner. I like this swap for the Tigers

What indications would anyone have that Jackson has turned the corner? Certainly not his sub-mediocre (101 ERA+, 1.505 WHIP, 1.4 K/BB[!!]) performance last year?

Jackson has incredible stuff, nobody doubts that, but he has given no indication of an ability to harness it, either now or in the past. His superficial improvement last season (as bad as his wildness is, his walk ratio actually improved to its best level ever) was compensated for by a spike in the number of homers he gave up (1.12 HR/G).

This is an absolute steal for the Rays. Dombrowski has overpaid for some pretty bad pitchers lately between Willis, Farnsworth, and Jackson. That plus giving away Jurrgens really makes you wonder about the talent evaluation on the pitching side in Detroit.

Can someone give me the skinny on Joyce? His minor league track record looks decent, but I admit to not knowing much about him other than he seems league-average OFesque. Maybe the league's getting smarter, but I would have thought a 14-11 SP with a 4.42 ERA in the AL East (who's cost controlled for 2-3 years) would have attraced more attention from the RBI/Wins crowd GM's.

Jackson's peripherals don't indicate he's turned the corner at all. his FIP is 4.88, which is almost exactly equal to the numbers he put up in previous seasons (in 2007 for instance his FIP was 4.90). for a pitcher who relies on his stuff, a K/9 of 5.30 does not look particularly great - that's below his career numbers, by the way. his uncontrollable stats, like BABIP (.301) and HR/FB (9.6%) were around league average. you have to remember, the Rays defensively were an outstanding team last season. Pena/Iwamura/Bartlett/Longoria is amazing, and their outfielders (Crawford/Upton/Gross) weren't half bad either. so despite the fact that Jackson struck out few and walked many, as long as he could keep the ball in the park (which he did), his stats were always going to be flattering.

meanwhile Matt Joyce already looks like a fine player. his wOBA of .355 (he is projected to maintain that level of performance) is pretty good, even for a corner outfielder - Alex Rios had a wOBA of .350 last season, for instance. he has that combination of power and good fielding - if he improves *at all*, the Rays will have won this trade on an individual value basis. in terms of their needs - they certainly needed a right fielder more than they needed a 5th pitcher (who would just be blocking David Price anyway).

As a side note, this would seem to establish the Rays' rotation for next year: Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Sonnanstine and Price.

Now Andy Sonnanstine for Matt Joyce? THAT would have been a good swap. But Jackson? Foolish in the utmost.

Cool, thanks for the heads up. One of the rare times I knew absolutely nothing about the player (Joyce) involved.

Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Sonnanstine and Price.

More likely more like Kazmir, Price, Garza, Shields and Sonnanstine. That's one hell of a rotation.

On talent alone, this is the best rotation in the AL. And, one of the cheapest.

On talent level, Sonnanstine is arguably the weakest pitcher of the five. And he's a very good pitcher! (3.98 FIP, 1.29 WHIP in 2008).

If the Rays sign Milton Bradley as their DH then look out Tokyo...they're going to be obliterating teams left and right.

If the Rays sign Milton Bradley as their DH then look out Tokyo...they're going to be obliterating teams left and right.

Adam Dunn FTW

If they sign any of the DH options on the market, they will have a formidable lineup. The bullpen really looks like it will be their biggest question; can Howell and Balfour show that they've made real steps forward, or were those career years?

After this trade are the Rays still looking for a DH? I figured they would just go with Joyce either there or switching with Gross and Gross platooning with Gomes. The Rays seem pretty set.

Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Sonnanstine and Price.

More likely more like Kazmir, Price, Garza, Shields and Sonnanstine.

Aren't those the same two rotations?

Steal for the Rays, strange move for the Tigers.

Aren't those the same two rotations?

I believe he arranged them in terms of projected production.
ie: David Price is crazy good.

I believe he arranged them in terms of projected production.
ie: David Price is crazy good.

ahh. ...or maybe planning ahead for a 2009 ALDS, because I'll go out on a limb and
say that Price won't start the 2nd game next April.

Matt Joyce isn't any good folks. He's this year's Chris Shelton.

"Matt Joyce isn't any good folks. He's this year's Chris Shelton."

Chris Shelton hit .340/.409/.570 in AAA last year, at the ripe old age of 28. He really should be playing at least semi-regularly for somebody.

Chris Shelton hit .340/.409/.570 in AAA last year, at the ripe old age of 28. He really should be playing at least semi-regularly for somebody.

He will be. The Mariners just inked him to a 1 year contract. He'll probably be providing the other half of a platoon with Russell Branyan.

Score for Jack Z.

Chris Shelton will fail at the major league level, just like he failed the last time.

Matt Joyce will be the bad-defensive-half of a platoon. If you look at his production last year, he had one really good month, then fell off dramatically over the next two. If you throw it right down the middle, he can hit it. If not, he's going to miss badly. And his defense last year was atrocious.

Shelton was the same way in Detroit. One great month, then nothing. And his defense is horrible too as he isn't much of an athlete.

This isn't a bad trade for either side. The Tigers get a player with tremendous ability and fill a need (pitching), while the Rays get a decent platoon player who will be cheap for the next few years. The Tigers also now clear space for Clevlen (out of options and, unlike Joyce, is really good defensively and can spell Granderson in center), Ramirez (better bat) or Clete Thomas (same as Clevlen but with options).

Corner outfielders aren't the Tigers' problem. Pitching and defense are their problems.

But no one got "robbed." Matt Joyce projects to be an ok platoon player and nothing more. Jackson has the ability to be more, we'll see if he can actually do it. Even if he doesn't, he's probably just as valuable as Joyce will ever be.

Gotta say I'm pretty impressed with the moves Jack Z has made so far for the M's. Most of them small (even the Putz trade has really only brought in a slew of smaller names) but all of them smart and indicative of a guy who knows how to build the foundations of success.

This isn't a bad trade for either side. The Tigers get a player with tremendous ability and fill a need (pitching)

Okay...I don't think you understand just how bad Edwin Jackson is. Seriously, go to Hardball Times and look at his peripherals. Last year was his best by far and it was still worse than mediocre. What on earth do you do if THAT was his "flukily good" year?

Jackson has great stuff, no doubt. (He's also apparently a very friendly and likable guy, for what it's worth.) But then Daniel Cabrera has great stuff too. And man, there isn't a more apt comparison in all of baseball. They both have stuff, control problems, and mental blocks that look like they'll prevent them from ever harnessing their potential fully.

Some of the fangraphs new stuff sheds a little light on Jackson's struggles. He had the 5th lowest outside-the-zone swing percentage and highest inside the zone swing percentage in the league. He's not getting easy strikes for whatever reason.

Matt Joyce is nothing but a replaceable player. Jackson has the ability to throw the ball 95+. If they think they can harnass that into a good closer or an average starter, then it will be a good trade for Detroit.

Jackson had as many good outings as Joyce did last year.

He had the 5th lowest outside-the-zone swing percentage and highest inside the zone swing percentage in the league. He's not getting easy strikes for whatever reason.

How much of that could be attributed to tipping of pitches?

I think Buddha has Matt Joyce's value pegged--but is Clevlen ready to step up and contribute?

I'm not sure chemdoc. If not, they have Thames/Raburn/Ramirez/Thomas to take his place.

Trading Joyce is not a big loss for the Tigers and probably won't be a big gain for the Rays. But he'll be a cheap alternative for them, which is something.

I just don't see the man-crush on Joyce. If you only look at his OPS+ for the year and see 116, then wow, he's a great young talent. But if you watched him play this year, you saw him get hot in July, then taper off considerably when other teams figured out that he has a major hole in his swing.

Can he adjust? Possibly. But I think his stats for last year are flukish, and that he'll settle in as a nice platoon player for a couple years. That's all, nothing special.

"And [Shelton's] defense is horrible too as he isn't much of an athlete."

O RLY?

"And [Joyce's] defense last year was atrocious."

O RLY?

"Corner outfielders aren't the Tigers' problem. Pitching and defense are their problems."

Well, now pitching and defense are still their problem. And they're down a good young outfielder.

Chris Shelton will fail at the major league level, just like he failed the last time.

I'm pretty sure that Shelton is now Seattle's problem, and if he platoons w/ Branyan @ 1B or DH (as the USS Mariner folks believe will happen), I think he'll do just fine.

one thing I have learned as a fan, is that I have to take a fan of another teams opinion about his own corner outfielders defense with a grain of salt. For the record, if you don't have Crawford or Ichiro in the corner, almost all corner defenders look bad, because people are mentally comparing them to centerfielders. I wouldn't be surprised if you go to a small group of fans of every team and get a consensus among at least 25 teams that their corner outfielder is atrocious defensively.

The Rays ran out the best defense in baseball last year. The Tigers, um, didn't. Potentially career-ending change of scenery for Edwin Jackson here.

"And [Shelton's] defense is horrible too as he isn't much of an athlete."

O RLY?

"And [Joyce's] defense last year was atrocious."

O RLY?

"Corner outfielders aren't the Tigers' problem. Pitching and defense are their problems."

Well, now pitching and defense are still their problem. And they're down a good young outfielder.

I've been around BTF for a long time, even before it was BTF. And I hate it when people say this stuff, but I think it's appropriate right now:

If you watch Chris Shelton play defense, you'll realize he isn't very good. Same with Matt Joyce.

If you watch Chris Shelton play defense, you'll realize he isn't very good. Same with Matt Joyce.

but the point really is that to your eyes they aren't that good, but what are you comparing them to? your memory of good players? That was my point in my previous post.

Are you telling me that Joyce is worse defensively than the other players teams have plaiying left field or right? Manny, Dunn, Duncan, Ibanez, Cust, Abreu, Vlad, Quentin, Matsui, Dye, Cuddyer etc.

Peoples perception of an average fielder doesn't jive with the league perception of average fielder. There are very few good corner outfielders defensively and average isn't that high of a standard.

The Rays ran out the best defense in baseball last year. The Tigers, um, didn't. Potentially career-ending change of scenery for Edwin Jackson here.

As a flyball pitcher, I think he will appreciate Granderson in CF as opposed to BJ Upton. And adding Everett and returning Inge to 3B has turned the infield defence from a weakness to a strength.

Sure why not. It is not like the Tigers are working with a lot with their pitchers.

but the point really is that to your eyes they aren't that good, but what are you comparing them to? your memory of good players? That was my point in my previous post.

I'm comparing it to the baseball players that I watch in the baseball games that I watch. It's all I have to go on.

I've seen plenty of baseball games, and Chris Shelton isn't very good in the field. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

Are you telling me that Joyce is worse defensively than the other players teams have plaiying left field or right? Manny, Dunn, Duncan, Ibanez, Cust, Abreu, Vlad, Quentin, Matsui, Dye, Cuddyer etc.

Peoples perception of an average fielder doesn't jive with the league perception of average fielder. There are very few good corner outfielders defensively and average isn't that high of a standard.

That could very well be. IMO, Joyce wasn't very good, but that could easily be my own bias and lack of seeing everyone else.

As a flyball pitcher, I think he will appreciate Granderson in CF as opposed to BJ Upton.

You say this as if B.J. Upton was a bad defensive centerfielder. I agree he's not at the level of Granderson (few are), but he's not exactly Nate McLouth either.

As a flyball pitcher, I think he will appreciate Granderson in CF as opposed to BJ Upton. And adding Everett and returning Inge to 3B has turned the infield defence from a weakness to a strength.

It's nice to see that last year's events didn't cause you to stop making predictions about the Tigers, Walewander. Bless you, boy!

I don't see why you would trust 85 games worth of defensive stats over people's observations. I'd like to see what a scout said about Joyce, because I have no recollection of ever seeing him, but a BBTF Tigers fan's opinion is a lot more reliable to me than such a small sample of defensive numbers.

As a flyball pitcher, I think he will appreciate Granderson in CF as opposed to BJ Upton.

Upton's a pretty good CF nowadays himself.

-- MWE

I don't see why you would trust 85 games worth of defensive stats over people's observations. I'd like to see what a scout said about Joyce, because I have no recollection of ever seeing him, but a BBTF Tigers fan's opinion is a lot more reliable to me than such a small sample of defensive numbers.

again, it's because people have an unrealistic perception of 'average' defense out of a corner outfielder. I am a Cardinal fan and nearly everyone says Duncan is horrible out there, but when I pull myself back from judging him just on how he looks and judge him for the results (outside of 2006 playoffs) and I see a guy who catches balls in his area, who takes bad routes (not Taguchi level bad, nodody, including Manny is that bad) plays deep because he knows he isn't the best at going back to the ball, uses two hands and overall is slightly below average when it comes to results. I would never point to a kid and say watch him play defense, and if you just watch him without concentrating on the results you would argue he's the worse defender you ever saw (until you saw an Ibanez, Dunn or Manny run a route) The fact is that average corner defenders aren't good defenders and by observation an average defender falls well below what a typical fan or scout would consider to be average. Almost all corner fielders who receive significant playing time are poor defenders. But in comparison to others at their position they aren't that poor.

it's because people have an unrealistic perception of 'average' defense out of a corner outfielder.

But 85 games of defensive numbers is meaningless. I'll trust people's perceptions over the statistical equivalent of 100 ABs.

But in comparison to others at their position they aren't that poor.

The Tigers have seen Sheffield, Thames, Dmitri Young and the corpse of Bobby Higginson run out there the last few years, I think if anyone other than Yankee fans has a pretty good idea of what a poor corner outfielder looks like, it's Tigers fans. I doubt Tiger's fans have an artificially high standard for their corner OFers. Some teams fans' might, the Tigers have seen the real deal often enough to have a more realistic perception.

"I'd like to see what a scout said about Joyce..."

BA's list of Detroit's top 10 prospects from last year (Subscriber Link) really couldn't be much more complementary. Above-average in a corner, great jumps, strong arm. They even think he's adequate in CF.

It's nice to see that last year's events didn't cause you to stop making predictions about the Tigers, Walewander. Bless you, boy!

Saying that going from Cabrera/ Guillen and Renteria to Inge and Everett is a defensive improvement and that Granderson is a great defensive CF aren't really predictions as much as they are completely obvious.

Good to know you're still trolling Tigers threads. I thought a 74 win season might lead you to conclude you had better ways to spend your time.

But 85 games of defensive numbers is meaningless. I'll trust people's perceptions over the statistical equivalent of 100 ABs.

I agree, but again I still take fans perceptions with a grain of salt when it comes to corner outfielders. Centerfielders? sure, infielders? yep and even corner infield I'll take a fans perception ahead of 100 innings or whatever. But corner of and catcher I do not trust a fans opinion. Corner of I've given the reason, fans usually rate corner outfielders good or bad, nobody accurately rates a corner outfielder as average based upon observation. They do not know what average is. Catchers defense is determined way too much by their arm and the announcers claims (I've heard for years about how great Matheny was at blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners, but he had flaws that the announcers would never acknowledge etc. same with Molina and other good and bad catchers, Piazza was a great defensive catcher outside of the arm but you wont hear many say that) Catchers defense I would say I would only go by my personal observation (metrics suck for catchers and scouts are enamored with arms) corner outfielders I'll go by metrics and rely on them almost exclusively.

Given how well Tampa Bay has done at snagging 'surprising' talent over the past few years, I feel like that pushes this trade into win territory for them. Joyce is young, gets respect from scouts & scouting pubs (like BA), and didn't embarrass himself last season. On the other hand, as a Tampa fan and MLB.TV junky, I've seen a lot of E-Jax starts. He is as bad as folks are saying. He simply has no consistency from start-to-start, can't capitalize on his plus-stuff, and *really* benefitted from the improved defense behind him last season. There are always pitchers who turn corners, and pitching coaches who help a pitcher "flip a switch.' But, I really don't think it's going to happen in this case. Detroit hasn't done well with their own pitchers, either in acquiring them and helping them put it all together, or in evaluating and developing the fruits of their system. Their rotation is a wasteland of poor performances, injuries, and men with no business being there in the first place. Jackson is durable enough, and he should gobble some innings. That's about it.

Personally, given the histories for these two outfits, the information available to judge the players, and the over-all gut feel, I gotta say Detroit got snookered. And, once again, Tampa has plugged a hole without having to dip into their own robust farm system. How the hell do they keep doing it? I mean, if Joyce can't hack it, they still didn't lose anything, as Edwin Jackson was not going to be starting for this team, barring injury/idiocy. And they still have all them shiny prospects with which to trade if Joyce does tank. If he doesn't, well, hell, it's just another young and talented player on a team stocked with young and talented players.

Some very good points, BJ. I would note that Detroit snagging former Minnesota strikethrowing commandant Rick Knapp hopefully improves the learning environment for Tiger pitchers.

Agreed, Walewander. I'd love to see Detroit sustain a good run of quality play. It was so fun to see them field a strong team and see fans in the stands.

Good to know you're still trolling Tigers threads. I thought a 74 win season might lead you to conclude you had better ways to spend your time.

Hey, I know you consider sniping about the Tigers to be kinda fun, so I thought I'd oblige.

As a Tigers fan, I liked Matt Joyce, but I can live with this move. It's a gamble, but the Tigers risk losing probably just a nice platoon/fourth outfielder. This probably seems worse after the Tigers played the Wheel of Fortune too much last season. I agree with whoever pointed out that Joyce is a fine little player who had one really good streak that made his numbers, offensively at least, seem better than they were.

As a flyball pitcher, I think he will appreciate Granderson in CF as opposed to BJ Upton. And adding Everett and returning Inge to 3B has turned the infield defence from a weakness to a strength.

Upton is above average in CF these days, and you can't even make the argument that Ordonez-Granderson-Guillen covers more ground than Crawford-Upton-Gross.

I'm not a huge Joyce fan. A lot of people are convinced that he's a stud defender, but I'm not so sure of that. If he is actually as good of a defender as last year's stats make him out to be, then it's a minor win for the Rays. Otherwise, they just acquired a younger version of a player they already have (Gross).

Getting rid of Jackson is probably addition by subtraction, but some GM was going to give the team something useful for a 14-win starter with a 4.42 ERA in 180 innings. The going rate for free agent starters with those traditional stats is $8M a year, and Edwin is still locked into arbitration for three more years.

In my opinion the Tigers would have a better chance of getting a good return from this trade if they converted Jackson to relief right away. I know their options for filling out the end of the rotation blow but their bullpen wasn't any good last year either. Jackson really only has two pitches and the command of them is very inconsistent. He seems like a perfect candidate for improvement by coming out for an inning throwing without any restraint and not having to worry about pitch sequencing much.

In my opinion the Tigers would have a better chance of getting a good return from this trade if they converted Jackson to relief right away. I know their options for filling out the end of the rotation blow but their bullpen wasn't any good last year either. Jackson really only has two pitches and the command of them is very inconsistent. He seems like a perfect candidate for improvement by coming out for an inning throwing without any restraint and not having to worry about pitch sequencing much.

I have believed this about Jackson for awhile. The Tigers need SPs and RPs. As I noted on the other thread, DD is obviously focused on low-risk moves to improve run prevention. The Tigers apparently are not candidates to try for Lowe, Sheets or Burnett, but I think DD may bring in a couple of reclamation projects--Colon, Jennings
--to try to bolster the rotation. IMO The Tigers need to try to win the central this year.