1 selective endpoints
2 small sample size

other than that, he makes some good points

Impeccable timing on this piece.

1 selective endpoints
2 small sample size

other than that, he makes some good points

I completely disagree. Ellsbury was one hitter in April and May, and a completely different hitter in June and July. In April and May he was terrific, getting on base, driving the ball, taking a lot of walks. Ever since he has been Rey Ordonez up there. His walk rate went from over 10% in about 200 plate appearances to about 2% in about 200 plate appearances. It seems obvious to me that something changed - an injury, a change in approach, something. But not luck related to small sample size. He is not the same hitter.

He is not the same hitter.

What was he last night?

It seems obvious to me that something changed - an injury, a change in approach, something. But not luck related to small sample size. He is not the same hitter.

Warning: Wildily unsupported speculation ahead!

Ellsbury had his two HR game on April 22, since then his line is an underwhelming .260/.304/.338 (or, as we call it around my place, "Melkyesque"). Is it possible he's starting trying to hit more fly balls, perhaps prompted by said two home run game, and then lost his swing in attempting to fix that? I can't find anywhere that does FB/GB splits by month, so I'm not sure how to test this theory.

His career numbers are .287/.344/.399 - I'd say that's about his talent level right now, and that he's got a little room to grow still - it's not far from there to a baseline of .290/.350/.420 or so, which is where I still see him settling in, with maybe the odd fluky .320/.390/.470 out of nowhere one year. The talent is clearly there, and he doesn't appear to be a headcase - he's a rookie, he's going through adjustments. They don't all turn out like Pedroia, after all...

1 selective endpoints

I know this is tossed around as a major fallacy in analysis, but isn't it redundant? The very fact of having endpoints - which any analysis is going to have - is in itself selective. The question is whether there is good reason to select them (injury, change in approach, league, etc.) or if they are arbitrary (first day of the month) and prejudicial (starting with the worst performance).

The article seems to be doing the latter, mostly, but I don't think saying he used "selective endpoints" is an inherently valid criticism.

IMO, the biggest change in Ellsbury from early in the season is not the lack of power, or something similar. Its the BB rate. He walked 27 times in 205 plate appearances in April and May, and 5 times in 221 plate appearances since. That's quite a change, and not in the right direction. This doesn't seem like normal rookie adjustments, either. I think his approach changed at some point, and I have no idea why.

I don't equate the change in walk rate with the change in batting average over that time, which is not nearly as unusual.

By the way, on the issue of selective endpoints, he walked twice on May 31, walked once a few days later, and then pretty much stopped. So I didn't pick May 31st just because it was the end of a month.

Ellsbury had his two HR game on April 22, since then his line is an underwhelming .260/.304/.338 (or, as we call it around my place, "Melkyesque"). Is it possible he's starting trying to hit more fly balls, perhaps prompted by said two home run game, and then lost his swing in attempting to fix that? I can't find anywhere that does FB/GB splits by month, so I'm not sure how to test this theory.

I remember thinking, uh-oh, homeritis!

It seems obvious to me that something changed - an injury, a change in approach, something.

He had a wrist injury that he just might be emerging from. He's looked good the last few days so he'll be fine.

He had a wrist injury

IIRC, that injury occurred on 6/4, the same day as the brawl, as he was diving for a ball in CF. This would adequately line up the dates, and explain the lack of power since that time. Though the walks remain concerning.

Well he has done terrific in the past two games, perhaps this heralds a corrective hot streak? Reverse jinx!

kevin, how do you feel about your Ellsbury-Sizemore predictions?

kevin, how do you feel about your Ellsbury-Sizemore predictions?

Probably about as good as I do about my bet that Melky would out-WS Ellsbury over the next three years. Of course, given that they have a combined 14 Win Shares, the real winner is the rest of the American League.

Though the walks remain concerning.

Well, if you can't swing properly, pitchers are smart enough to try and take advantage of that. Has anyone checked to see if he's seeing a different ratio of balls and strikes from pitchers during this period?

I was telling people that Pedroia was nothing more than Jody Reed/Marty Barrett 3.0--a little guy who only hit at Fenway, and was maybe the 4th-best 2b in the division.

Then Pedroia made adjustments, and had his 25-whatever-game road hitting streak, shutting us all up.

So, I'm going to be quiet on Ellsbury.

I think the people who said Ellsbury was more valuable than Sizemore and the people who said Phil Hughes was more valuable than Johan Santana cancel each other out, at least for this season. So it's even.

(I promise this is my LAST citation of the Hughes-Santana issue)

I think the people who said Ellsbury was more valuable than Sizemore and the people who said Phil Hughes was more valuable than Johan Santana cancel each other out, at least for this season.

One person said Ellsbury was as valuable as Sizemore, no one said Hughes was as valuable Santana.

It's not really fair to hold Red Sox fans accountable for Kevin.

(I promise this is my LAST citation of the Hughes-Santana issue)

Good, now we only need to get the other half dozen people who feel like trotting that line out every chance they get to stop too.

Well, if you can't swing properly, pitchers are smart enough to try and take advantage of that. Has anyone checked to see if he's seeing a different ratio of balls and strikes from pitchers during this period?

Pitchers have been absolutely hammering him with inside fastballs for 2 solid months, and for 2 solid months he hasn't been able to hit them. He got clearly frustrated and lost confidence, and then started letting hittable pitches go by for strikes while swinging at crap.

The total lack of walks I simply don't understand at all. Even a wrist injury shouldn't affect strike zone recognition.

The total lack of walks I simply don't understand at all. Even a wrist injury shouldn't affect strike zone recognition.

If pitchers don't respect him, there is no reason to throw even 3 balls in an AB.

no one said Hughes was as valuable Santana.

It was implied in a lot of the "What should the Yanks/Mets/Red Sox/Brewers trade to get Santana?" threads. In which context, though, it could be defended because of the issue of salary/opportunity cost.

In which context, though, it could be defended because of the issue of salary/opportunity cost.

So why harp on it consistently 4 months later when it will be impossible to completely evaluate the comparisons of the two until 2015 or whenever? And why are we not subjected to constant reminders of how Buccholz or Ellsbury were more valuable then Santana too?

And why are we not subjected to constant reminders of how Buccholz or Ellsbury were more valuable then Santana too?

Because Yankee fans aren't doing that?

If pitchers don't respect him, there is no reason to throw even 3 balls in an AB.

I think you've nailed it here. Even when healthy Ellsbury displayed very little power; pitchers didn't have much to fear just hucking it in the strike zone and taking their chances. He soon showed he couldn't even hit fastballs over the plate, so he got a steady diet of them over the plate and in on his hands.

Ellsbury is just another flash in the pan hot prospect who started like a house a fire in his first year in the show, but got exposed as a AAAA player in his second year. Just another Carlos Quentin.

He's 24. If the Red Sox don't want him, the Royals should get him and use him as a replacement for Joey Gathright.

Ok, maybe Gathright needs some time after his shoulders heal to show that he still deserves a job. But Ellsbury would probably hit better in Kauffman than Fenway.

If pitchers don't respect him, there is no reason to throw even 3 balls in an AB.

This overstates the amount of control pitchers have. Al Leiter (career BA of 085, career SLG of 102) walked 35 times in 613 PA, about 1 every 18 PA. Matt Clement (095/115) walked 14 times in 410.

Really, no major-league batter has an excuse for walking less often than Al Leiter much less Matt Clement for any extended period of time. And the only way to do so is to swing at pitches outside the zone and virtually every pitch in the zone.

My Ellsbury-Juan Pierre comparison looks better every day. :-)

My Ellsbury-Juan Pierre comparison looks better every day. :-)

Even the day after he hits a home run over the wall in dead center at Kaufman?

Even with his struggles Ellsbury already has 9 career HR to Pierre's 12.

Ellsbury is just another flash in the pan hot prospect who started like a house a fire in his first year in the show, but got exposed as a AAAA player in his second year. Just another Carlos Quentin.

Basically
other examples:

Milton Bradley - hot prospect- but hit just .234/.301/.364 through age 24, clearly a AAAA bust;
Some hot shot SS prospect the Mariners had a few years ago, hit just .204/.241/.204 in his first cup of coffee, and .232/.264/.408 in 48 games the next year, bum;
Dioner Navarro, hit .340 in AA one year, hit .273 in 50 games for the Ddogers, but just .227/.286/.356 last year.
Jose Reyes, another flash in the pan, hit .307 in his cup of coffee, but had an OBP of just .300 his first full year as a regular- obviously couldn't hack it.


I'm always amazed at how so many fans (and columnists and announcers) are willing to throw out the entirety of a prospect's track record (minors and NCAA), scouting reports, etc., and based upon a meaningless sample of at bats, declare that someone is (or isn't) a bust.

Ellsbury has obviously just had a terrible June and July- his wrist was hurt and his Ks went up and his walks down. It looks to me that he made some very counterproductive adjustments in response to that injury. Obviously that is a little worrisome, but assuming he regains health and strength in his wrist, there's no reason he can't recover to become the hitter he was before.

He's no Sizemore, but just as obviously he's not Pierre either, when healthy he can drive the ball with enough authority to keep pitchers honest.

Really, no major-league batter has an excuse for walking less often than Al Leiter much less Matt Clement for any extended period of time. And the only way to do so is to swing at pitches outside the zone and virtually every pitch in the zone.

Or look at it this way - that 5 walks in 221 PA stretch is worse than the career record of possibly the worst hitter in major league history.

He's no Sizemore, but just as obviously he's not Pierre either, when healthy he can drive the ball with enough authority to keep pitchers honest.

Is anyone--except Walt who I'm pretty sure was riffing on his initial misread on Jacoby--really suggesting that Ellsbury is actaully no better than Juan Pierre? And is anyone really suggesting he's a sub-.500 OPS player? He's obviously struggling and equally obviously not this bad.

But I think he's equally obvious that the Ellsbury who had his numbers last season and the beginning of this year--the one who prompted kevin to make his wacky Sizemore claims--is not coming back. He's a lot more Lofton than Sizemore. It just so happens that a lot of casual/mainstream anaylsis saw him as Sizemore so this down stretch gets way hyped.

Or look at it this way - that 5 walks in 221 PA stretch is

just a bad stretch

the following is a list of some of the players from 2000-2008 who have had season with 10 walks or less in 175-275 PAs:

Cnt Player BB PA Year Age Tm Lg
+----+-----------------+---+---+----+---+---+--+
Jose Reyes 5 229 2004 21 NYM NL
Miguel Olivo 7 229 2008 29 KCR AL
Corey Patterson 8 238 2008 28 CIN NL
Skip Schumaker 8 188 2007 27 STL NL
Mike Lieberthal 8 230 2006 34 PHI NL
Joe Crede 8 209 2002 24 CHW AL
Alexi Casilla 9 204 2007 22 MIN AL
Jorge Cantu 9 185 2004 22 TBD AL
Brandon Inge 9 202 2001 24 DET AL
Wily Mo Pena 10 206 2008 26 WSN NL
Howie Kendrick 10 275 2008 24 LAA AL
Joe Crede 10 178 2007 29 CHW AL
Juan Rivera 10 185 2003 24 NYY AL
Pedro Feliz 10 249 2003 28 SFG NL
Pedro Feliz 10 238 2001 26 SFG NL
Aramis Ramirez 10 274 2000 22 PIT NL


Obviously, many more players have had stretches like that.

And is anyone really suggesting he's a sub-.500 OPS player?

I haven't seen anyone call him Andruw Jones.

He's a lot more Lofton than Sizemore.

And there's nothing wrong with that - I'll take .290/.350/.420 with good D and great baserunning in CF for the next five years, especially for what he'll cost.

I haven't seen anyone call him Andruw Jones.

Cold.

Cold.

Out of curiosity, when are you going to bring up our discussion/argument about Cano before the season started? I'm just waiting to get nailed on that one.

the following is a list of some of the players from 2000-2008 who have had season with 10 walks or less in 175-275 PAs:

In that list, only Jose Reyes had a worse walk rate, by a mere 8 PA. A lot of those guys had walk rates twice as good or better. 10 walks in 178 or 185 PA are nowhere near as bad as 5 in 221.

Out of curiosity, when are you going to bring up our discussion/argument about Cano before the season started? I'm just waiting to get nailed on that one.

Ha! Nah, he's just having a down year. Plus, I've been wrong plenty here and will continue to be, and it's not like you're a jerk or something, so why should I pick on you about it?

Seriously though, you predicted he'd hit .315/.370/.520? Stupid fanboy. ;-)

(FWIW, I guessed he'd hit around .310/.350/.490 in the same thread -- less wrong != right)

Milton Bradley - hot prospect- but hit just .234/.301/.364 through age 24, clearly a AAAA bust;

Bradley never even played as many as 100 games a season until his age 25 season. Also possesses superhuman powers derived from his unquenchable rage.

Some hot shot SS prospect the Mariners had a few years ago, hit just .204/.241/.204 in his first cup of coffee, and .232/.264/.408 in 48 games the next year, bum;

The Rod was 18 and 19 respectively when he put up those numbers. Rebounded to have a decent career.

Dioner Navarro, hit .340 in AA one year, hit .273 in 50 games for the Ddogers, but just .227/.286/.356 last year.

Younger than Ellsbusy and is a catcher. Looked hurt last year.

Jose Reyes, another flash in the pan, hit .307 in his cup of coffee, but had an OBP of just .300 his first full year as a regular- obviously couldn't hack it.

Reyes put up a borderline MVP season as a 23 year old.

There's still plenty of time for Ellsbury to rebound and have a decent season, let alone career, but anybody comparing him to Grady Sizemore is nuts, and comparing him to Kenny Lofton is still wildly optimistic. Lofton was a HoVG player.

For Cowboy Popup

Younger than Ellsbusy and is a catcher. Looked hurt last year.

I've taken a lot of abuse from some fellow primates for pointing that out...

There's still plenty of time for Ellsbury to rebound and have a decent season,

Kouzmanoff had 5 unintentional walks between June and July this year (192 PAs) a rate not far from Ellsbury's stretch- he's still at a 106 OPS+ for the year.

Nady last year had 7 UIBBs his last 190 PAs, and still finished with an OPS+ of 107. (BTW Nady's K/bb rate of 27:63 is by far the best of his career- it's amazing what a little improvement in plate discipline will do)

My Ellsbury-Juan Pierre comparison looks better every day. :-)

your ellsbury-juan pierre comparison is starting to look like these guys.

no matter how many times we point out that ellsbury matched pierre's career high in HR's last year in about a hundred at bats ... or that ellsbury has a pretty good shot at matching pierre's career total in his 1st full year in the majors ... it just won't die.

btw, i'm with kevin on the wrist injury thing. i remember the game. he appears to be coming out of his slump recently, though.

Ha! Nah, he's just having a down year.

Appreciate it. I was way, way wrong.

Thanks GGC, what do ya think? Worked last year. If they could only get the passing game going...The two BCS teams on the schedule should give the program a bit more respect, assuming of course they beat them (as they should, they're both home games).

(BTW Nady's K/bb rate of 27:63 is by far the best of his career- it's amazing what a little improvement in plate discipline will do)

YES! Some one else mentioned it first! Now I can talk about it. What are the chances of Nady being one those guys who takes a surprising step forward in their late twenties? I know it's very, very, very, very unlikely, but a once highly thought of hitting prospect who gets a bump in plate discipline during his physical peak seems exactly like the kind of guy who has that kind of late peak. Am I completely crazy? Or just mostly?

What are the chances of Nady being one those guys who takes a surprising step forward in their late twenties?

I have no idea- and I've been paying attention to him fro years, because he
s either been on my NL only roto team or reserved for years (right up until the effing trade- SOB starts to hit and gets traded out of the league).

He was 39th and 44th in consecutive years in BA's top 100 prospect list.

A running joke among Pirate fans was that Littlefield wanted Nady, but the Padres wouldn't give him up, so Littlefield "settled" for Bay instead. What gave the "joke" teeth was that it was true.
What ruins the joke was that Nady WAS more highly thought of than Bay at about that time- Bay peaked at 74 on BA's prospect list. Nady was a 2nd round pick- Bay 22nd.

Their minor league numbers are eerily similar.
Bay's first full season was split between the Midwest and FSL- he hit .315/.404/.488 and was inexplicably traded for Lou Collier- 4 months later in the midst of a .283/.370/.470 year split between the FSL and the EL he was inexplicably* traded for Steve Reed's carcass.
Nady hit .302/.375/.527 in the Cal League and made BA's top 100. Compared to LEAGUE Bay actually outplayed him.

* Inexplicable? The GM who traded him for Lou Collier was Omar Minaya. The GM who traded him for Reed was Steve Phillips- just another reason why Mets fans get nervous around the trade deadline...

This overstates the amount of control pitchers have. Al Leiter (career BA of 085, career SLG of 102) walked 35 times in 613 PA, about 1 every 18 PA. Matt Clement (095/115) walked 14 times in 410.

I read this and thought, well, pitchers are unique characters in that they are asked to bunt a very large percentage of the time. Perhaps these walks to Leiter and Clement were a result of opposing pitchers throwing high fastballs to them (the best approach in a bunt situation) and not getting the high strike. This would make their walk rates not at all analogous to Ellsbury's situation.

So, because it was fairly quick and easy to do with Clement, I checked out the game logs for his 14 walks, and...

not a single one was in a bunt situation. Not one. Five of them were leading off an inning. Six of them followed walks in the inning, two of those were with the bases loaded. Eight times total there was nobody on base, six times there were two outs.

Just thought I'd share that. No excuse for not walking if Matt Clement can do it five times leading off an inning.

the following is a list of some of the players from 2000-2008 who have had season with 10 walks or less in 175-275 PAs:

I have to assume that Alfonso Soriano didn't have a season that qualified, or he would definitely be on that list. Maybe Ellsbury will become Soriano?

I have to assume that Alfonso Soriano didn't have a season that qualified

Too many PAs, but I assume he's had stretches like that.
For instance in 2002 he had 7 uiBBs in his last 254 PAs,
3 in his first 200 PAs in 2001.

But aside from 2006, Soriano has never shown a smidgeon of discipline- Ellsbury aside from the past 2 monthe has always shown exemplary plate discipline. I don't think Soriano is a good comp.

I think by the time Bay was finally traded to the Pirates, most Primates would have taken him over Nady. Nady looked like a sure thing in 2001 and 2002, but by 2003 the bloom was off that rose a little, while Bay looked great. Nady looked like a AAAA guy who could crush minor league pitching but just couldn't hack it in the bigs. Maybe he's finally figured it out a la Carlos Pena.

You know Ellsbury did almost exactly this last year too. He started out hitting like crazy in AA, went to AAA and was cruddy for months, and finished the season very strong. There was a brief and successful ML stint in there somewhere too. He's a streaky hitter. He was hitting way over his head at the end of 07 and early in 08, but he was hitting under his head for the last couple months.

Pierre is still a decent comp, but I'd use it for his downside and Lofton for his upside.

I'm just annoyed that his steals dropped off so badly. I was hoping for him to get the AL rookie record, but I'll be very happy if he gets to 50 now.

Pierre is still a decent comp, but I'd use it for his downside and Lofton for his upside.

That seems about right. It should be repeated, since someone said that the Lofton comp was "wildly optimistic" that Lofton is not the 50th percentile projection, but the upside comparison.

Pierre feels a little low on the downside, because of the power differential mentioned many times above, but I think that players' downsides are usually a lot lower than it ever feels like when you watch them, and so that's probably about right too.

I hear the prospectcorner.com says that Willie Mays is a good comp for Ellsbury.

Comparable Players: Willie Mays, Ted Kluszewski

If pitchers don't respect him, there is no reason to throw even 3 balls in an AB.

I never buy this argument. Julio Lugo has walked way too many times this year for that to be true.

Obviously, many more players have had stretches like that.

Even if the list is computer generated, you have no excuse for not including Ivan Rodriguez's 2007 on there:

515 PA -- 9 BB (including one IBB)

EDIT -- misread what you were posting.

Still, you gotta admit that is impressive non-walking.

Speaking personally, I was delighted at the time that the Pirates ended up "settling" for Bay instead of Nady.

Ellsbury's Top 10 ZiPS Comps:

Richie Ashburn
Lloyd Waner
Juan Pierre
Rick Manning
Johnny Damon
Sam West
Mark Kotsay
Rudy Law
Kenny Lofton
Dave Martinez

My reactions:

HOF! Yay!
HOF! Boo.
Hey, that sounds familiar!
Ugh.
What are the chances?
Who?
No longterm deal!
Double Ugh.
Yessss!
Pierre Redux?

See, as always, me and ZiPS is sympatico! :-) Are those updated through this season or the pre-season ones? I assume updated since it seems his #2 preseason comp was Vada Pinson.

Of course Ellsbury will probably be better than Juan Pierre. Dave Martinez was way better than Pierre (career 95 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at).

My comment about Ellsbury and walking didn't say low-walkers can't be decent hitters. I was saying that if you're walking that little, it's not (just) because pitchers don't fear your power, it's because you are hacking at everything. Ellsbury's batting eye during this run has been absolutely awful -- not that anyone is arguing otherwise. There are a few guys who can hack at everything and still cream the ball (Vlad, Pudge in his prime) but Ellsbury is unlikely to be one of those. That doesn't mean these 200 PA doom him to eternal hacking and in fact his season walk-rate is right in line with his ZiPS projection.

Jose Reyes 5 229 2004 21 NYM NL
Miguel Olivo 7 229 2008 29 KCR AL
Corey Patterson 8 238 2008 28 CIN NL
Skip Schumaker 8 188 2007 27 STL NL
Mike Lieberthal 8 230 2006 34 PHI NL
Joe Crede 8 209 2002 24 CHW AL
Alexi Casilla 9 204 2007 22 MIN AL
Jorge Cantu 9 185 2004 22 TBD AL
Brandon Inge 9 202 2001 24 DET AL
Wily Mo Pena 10 206 2008 26 WSN NL
Howie Kendrick 10 275 2008 24 LAA AL
Joe Crede 10 178 2007 29 CHW AL
Juan Rivera 10 185 2003 24 NYY AL
Pedro Feliz 10 249 2003 28 SFG NL
Pedro Feliz 10 238 2001 26 SFG NL
Aramis Ramirez 10 274 2000 22 PIT NL

Of the guys on that list, Reyes, Schumaker, Inge and Ramirez (esp lately) have OK to good walk rates. Not that the list is predictive of anything, but, if it were, 4 out of 14 doesn't bode well for Ellsbury.

You pick up Lieberthal at the end of his career -- he walked reasonably well for most of his career but finished it off with just 12 in 286 AB.

But back to Ellsbury/Pierre: Ellsbury had just a 112 ISO in the minors. He's putting up a 100 ISO this year in a park where the league average ISO is 155. ZiPS projected him to a 95 ISO. Now Pierre, even in his prime, even in hitters parks, had just one season noticeably above an 80 ISO (with the Cubs) so, yes, Ellsbury has more power than Pierre. On the other hand, Pierre is a career 300 hitter which Ellsbury, so far, is not (though ZiPS projected him at 297) so that makes up some of the difference. One of the advantages he had over Pierre was his walk rate -- if (I said if) that's gone, the comparison gets closer.

You want scary numbers? Ellsbury's EQA this year is 251. That's worse than Pierre's career line, worse than 4 of his seasons and no better than Pierre the last 3 seasons. I'll grant you, Juan Pierre as near league-average CF makes me think EQA is broken but that, ladies and gentlemen, is what I am talking about.

So no, I am not riffing on my Ellsbury-Pierre comparison, I think it's much closer to the mark than a lot of the other comparisons I've seen (especially at the time). I see very little reason to expect Ellsbury to post an ISO higher than about 100 for his career. That's better than Pierre but CF who can hit 280/380 aren't that hard to find. Now if he adds a good walk rate and/or good defense, then he's a real nice player to have around. (And obviously his steals add a good bit)

Kenny Lofton was a 300 hitter with a 124 ISO (158 league). His career SLG is only 6 points below league average. He had an excellent walk rate. And all that still "only" added up to a 107 OPS+. That is Ellsbury's unlikely (but not unattainable) high side.

Anyway, I think that ZiPS list looks perfectly reasonable -- but he better be a true 290 or better hitter and start walking more than he has lately or he's gonna be on the downside of that list. My main point is that this season seems much more in line with his minor-league numbers than last season. They are substantially worse than his ZiPS projection (30 points of BA basically).

Wow, This article was terrible. Patrick was obviously writing it not to make some intelligent comments on Jacoby Ellsbury, but to first shots at me. He failed and I guess doesn't realize that when you are a rookie with 39 stolenbases and leading the league that you are in fact a great 11th round pick. Furthermore Patty said he'd hit only three HRs and the guy have 7. Who's more wrong? 3 or the 10 I said. Don't quit your day job Patrick.

"What are the chances of Nady being one those guys who takes a surprising step forward in their late twenties?"

Slim. His BABIP this year is .363. For his career, it's .283.

You want scary numbers? Ellsbury's EQA this year is 251. That's worse than Pierre's career line, worse than 4 of his seasons and no better than Pierre the last 3 seasons. I'll grant you, Juan Pierre as near league-average CF makes me think EQA is broken but that, ladies and gentlemen, is what I am talking about.

FWIW, Ellsbury's EQA for his career (relevant here because it's only 2 years) is .267 - better than all but two of Pierre's seasons, and easily better than Pierre's career number. I know you would agree Ellsbury should end up better than Pierre, and I don't think anyone reasonable is expecting that he'll be more than a .300/.360/.420ish type in the majors, but to just isolate Ellsbury's numbers this year undersells him a bit.

Here is a small article I wrote to answer this silly post by The Generals:

This has been an exciting season for Jacoby Ellsbury and even more for The True Guru. Fantasy Baseball Search listed Jacoby as our #1 sleeper for 2008 and emphatically recommended him on our radio show, The Fantasy Baseball Gurus. Throughout spring training and the season I've had to defend this pick against other experts who perhaps did not have the foresight to see how good this developing young player could be for the Red Sox.

Just last week my former co-host and brother from another mother, the Doctor of Sabermetrics and Grammar King himself, put up a somewhat harsh post in his blog ripping me and my humble Ellsbury projection. Ouch...that wasn't very nice.

Was this just a long-winded exploitation of the slump that Ellsbury had been mired in, or was there a legitimate point to this opus ?

I don't know if a three page diatribe was necessary to insult Jacoby Ellsbury, but I feel Dr. Grammar would take 30 minutes just to say goodnight to his daughters and it would probably go like this;
If you haven't notices my little fertilized eggs from your mothers caressing womb the medium star you call a sun, I call NG45675 has long passed the horizontal axis of the Earth and is waning its way to China. That means it bedtime. That's right, the time where your body drops 1 degree as you enter a peroid of REM sleep and allow you imagination to play wild with a plethora of adventures. I want to let you know that based on my numbers we've had 154 good nights so far this year. Now when you were just minor babies your numbers averaged around 202 good nights per year. Even though we are cutting it precariously close to that number with well over 100 days left in the year, I think we can assume that the GNANIP is on target (Good Night Average Nights In Play). Good Night.

Maybe he was a little early to criticize Ellsbury in his post titled The Fall Of Jacoby Ellsbury after only 117 games into the season. I will state this, Jacoby is still one of the best picks of the year for me and one of the better players in baseball. If the season ended today and he batted .270, lead the league in stolen bases and hit 7 home runs he is without a doubt worth an 11th round draft pick. Of course and thank god for fantasy owners it doesn't end today and he will certainly add onto those impressive numbers. There I said it, and that should end all the discussion about my love affiar with Jacoby (My BFF). My bottom-line is at this point its a win-win situation for Ellsbury believers and owners with is production to date.

Things got bad for Ellsbury after he strained his wrist back in early June. Wrist injuries are always the hardest for hitters to get over and the time he missed combined with the injury threw off his hitting mechanics. Being a rookie Ellsbury hasn't had to deal with this type of problem in his young career so the slump was evidence of that. Sabermetrics, which I will now refer to as the "fools gold of fantasy baseball strategy" had no chance to discover that and would not only have recommended that you do not draft him anywhere but the latest rounds, but that you cut him ASAP.

Now, lets enter the fray and debate this last article and make our fair and balanced rebuttle. On August 6th the previously mentioned post said this;

Those analysts (or one in particular) who continually browbeat Paul Greco, Lenny Melnick and I for caviling on Ellsbury now owe us an apology. Earlier this year I stated on more than on radio show (including that person's show) that we had to take Ellsbury's career to date with a huge grain of salt, aided as it was by a huge BABIP in not even one season of at-bats.
The aforementioned "analyst," who runs the expert league that I am in, essentially has been crowing all year about how smart he was in selecting Jacoby Ellsbury with a tenth round pick and predicting him for 12 HR. So impressed with his knowledge was this analyst that he had the temerity to readily suggest that owners may be justified in taking Ellsbury over Jose Reyes next year. His expertise is certainly in question now.

"how smart he was in selecting Jacoby Ellsbury with a tenth round pick"

OK, If you listen to my show archives and checkout his overall ranking on our web site http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/ you will see that I ranked him around a 11th round pick, but selected him with the last pick of the 9th round (swing pick) because I wouldn't pick again till the end of the 11th round and I wanted to get him. Heck, I could have taken him with the 1st pick of the tenth, but I wanted to make a statement that he was worth a 9th round pick and he's proven that so far. The bottom-line is, I ranked him for the 11th round. Of course in our expert league he was drafted in the 9th round. OH MY GOSH, SOUND THE ALARMS An amplitudinous fallible has been made!!!! Like the big words old buddy, http://www.dictionary.com/.

"and predicting him for 12 HR "

Currently he has 7, and I actually predicted 10-12. It is actually plausible that he could reach that number. Of course the writer of The Fall of Jacoby Ellsbury (I wish I had that guy that does the movie trailers say that) actually predicted on my radio show that he would hit 3 tops. Well, he's at 7, so who's more wrong? I can't get anymore wrong, but you good sir can get more wrong with each long ball he hits.

"owners may be justified in taking Ellsbury over Jose Reyes next year "

Its a well known fact I'm not high on Jose Reyes from a fantasy perspective. My biggest problem with him is he's overvalued. We'll see how things end up, but in no way would I say that he should be taken over Reyes, however I did say that Ellsbury would go much higher in the 2009 drafts and I will stand by that. Reyes has played better then I expected this year so far and I openly admit I've been wrong about that. However he is still under performing somewhat where everyone though thought he should be being he was expected to steal 70 bases and has 38 as of mid-August.

So far the results of Ellbury's season are somewhat mixed, but his status as a great sleeper pick before the season began cannot be disputed. Not everyone who considers themselves an expert feels this way. At least those of us who actually have seen the kid play know why he's so special, but the non-believers are normally Sabermetric guys who've rarely seen a baseball game, yet alone an actual player.

Hmmm, I wonder how that subscription to Baseball Prospectus and carefully scrutinizing all those useless Sabermetric stats helped anyone spot Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Braun's MVP caliber year, Nate McClouth's breakout, Xavier Nady, Gavin Floyd and Kevin Youkilis to name a few?

That's ok, Sabermetrics did help indentify Dan Johnson, everyones favorite first base sleeper. Johnson certainly did look great in that one at-bat he has had all year.

umm, great.

umm, great.

Tee-hee.