TFBG: Podhorzer: What Happened to Troy Tulowitzki?

Uhh...he blew up my fantasy team like we used to blow up Chatty Cathy dolls with strategically placed M-80’s?

Pro-rating his current season numbers to 600 ABs for easier comparison with last year, Troy has put up this line: .252-12-70-73-2. What’s interesting is that this looks very similar to what I, and I’m sure many others, had projected for him in 2007. What many people might not know is that except for the 7 ABs he had at Triple-A during a rehab assignment this year, he has never played at that level. In fact, he’s only had more than 100 ABs at one minor league level! That came at Double-A when he had 423 ABs with an .838 OPS and 13 home runs, while hitting .291. Although these are decent totals, they certainly didn’t suggest the kind of season he ended up having for the Rockies in 2007.

Looking back at last year versus this year, there are many more similarities than differences. Actually, besides the decline in power, one could actually make a legitimate argument that Tulo has been a better hitter this year. His walk rate has inched slightly higher and his contact rate has dramatically improved, rising from 79% to 86%. His batted ball profile is almost identical to last year, yet his BABIP has fallen from .336 to .278. Hitting line drives at a 20% rate means the .336 BABIP from last year was very reasonable and so this year’s .278 seems to be just bad luck.