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Friday, March 14, 2008

The A’s First $100 Million Dollar Man

At first I wondered where this guy was going. But if you have 15 minutes, the article itself and the comments are a terrific discussion of free agents in the distant future. Basically he advocates utilizing baseball’s lack of a payroll “floor” to keep payroll extremely low for several years to save money, then splurge on the truly elite, once-every-5-years FA that typically only rich teams can afford.

*If we look at some of the most successful marquee free agent signings of the past 15 years - Barry Bonds’ first deal with the Giants, Vlad’s deal with the Angels, and even, I would argue, A-Rod’s first deal with the Rangers (which would have been even better if the team hadn’t outbid themselves by $50MM), they have a common theme - position players on the good side of age 28. That’s part of why the list I made above focuses on position players, and especially youth.

ARox Posted: March 14, 2008 at 06:27 PM | 17 comment(s)
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1. Ivan Grushenko of HK in St Louis Posted: March 14, 2008 at 06:56 PM (#2713075)

I like the philosophy especially for the A's (they're pretty good at getting averagish players on the cheap), but I'm not sure which of those guys I'd actually sign for a record-breaking deal. Maybe Ryan Braun? Miguel Cabrera? None is a plus defender at a premium position.

2. Johnny Clash Posted: March 14, 2008 at 07:32 PM (#2713085)

You can say the A's shouldn't sign medicore FAs such as Piazza and Loiza, but then they wouldn't have made it to the ALCS in 2006 without Frank Thomas.

While we're fantasizing about 2014, perhaps Mr. Barton will warrant such a contract.

3. Ivan Grushenko of HK in St Louis Posted: March 14, 2008 at 09:35 PM (#2713120)

Barton is in the article.

4. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: March 14, 2008 at 11:53 PM (#2713150)

Why not Pedroia?

5. The District Attorney Posted: March 15, 2008 at 12:11 AM (#2713156)

Well, the player he actually ends up suggesting making the run for is Justin Upton. I assume that'd be ok with you, lev?

This idea is fine as long as the team can manage to be both cheap and good at the point they attempt to sign the player, like Cleveland is right now; the top free agent is not gonna sign with a crap team. Oakland, being a smart bunch and having kicked off a long-term rebuilding project this year, should theoretically be in that position by 2012-2014, although of course anything that far away is indeed very theoretical. Another thing you can't possibly know until the time comes is which players will sign extensions taking them off the FA market.

6. AROM wants you off his lawn Posted: March 15, 2008 at 12:43 AM (#2713169)

Billy Beane raises team payroll to $100 million (one-fifth of it devoted to his new star player), signs the soon-to-be best player in the game (Justin Upton) to bat fourth, play rightfield and headline a team of burgeoning young talent entering its prime as they open Cisco Field and becoming the new AL West mini-dynasty.

That's so cute. In 2014, a 100 million dollar payroll will be the kind of low budget team that just can't compete with the big boys. The Angels will control the division with a 200 million dollar payroll, though it will be cheap compared to the Yankee 400 million.

And if Upton does develop into the best player in baseball, his contract will be more like 400 million over 9 years. Think I'm crazy? Do the math yourself and weep. Assumptions are Upton being a 6 win above replacement player (since we're saying he'll be the best player in baseball) and the cost per marginal win increasing by the typical 8.5% per year.

Edit: Another assumption is that Upton remains at 6.0 wins for 2014-2015, and declines by 0.5 wins each year after that. Total Contract: 9 years, 427 million.

7. rfloh Posted: March 15, 2008 at 02:26 AM (#2713194)

You can say the A's shouldn't sign medicore FAs such Piazza and Loiza, but then they wouldn't have made it to the ALCS in 2006 without Frank Thomas.

Thomas' contract was different from that of Piazza and Loaiza. There was very little guaranteed money; most of it was in incentives.

8. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: March 15, 2008 at 03:29 AM (#2713199)

Edit: Another assumption is that Upton remains at 6.0 wins for 2014-2015, and declines by 0.5 wins each year after that. Total Contract: 9 years, 427 million.

Salaries can't keep growing at an exponential rate, can they?

9. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: March 15, 2008 at 03:46 AM (#2713201)

Salaries can't keep growing at an exponential rate, can they?

Check the price of gold recently?

10. The Mets make Russlan sad Posted: March 15, 2008 at 04:33 AM (#2713209)

In 1997, Albert Belle was the only person in baseball making 10 million dollars a year. The Yankees are paying close to that for Kei Igawa.

It's just amazing to me.

11. Kyle S at work Posted: March 15, 2008 at 11:29 AM (#2713274)

Of course, thanks to Ben Bernanke's love of Zimbabwenomics, $100 million will not be enough to buy a loaf of bread in 2014.

12. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: March 15, 2008 at 11:37 AM (#2713281)

Well, now we know Kyle S works at Bear Stearns.

13. Ivan Grushenko of HK in St Louis Posted: March 15, 2008 at 11:52 AM (#2713290)

Of course, thanks to Ben Bernanke's love of Zimbabwenomics, $100 million will not be enough to buy a loaf of bread in 2014.

In this scenario, oil would be $1 million/barrel, and the big money in baseball would be in Venezuela.

14. Kyle S at work Posted: March 15, 2008 at 01:46 PM (#2713332)

15. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: March 15, 2008 at 01:47 PM (#2713335)

I don't know, Kyle. I just fix the copy machines there.

16. Walt Davis Posted: March 15, 2008 at 05:55 PM (#2713420)

There's nobody in that group of players that really blows me away (yet). Cabrera obviously as a hitter but the defensive value would seem to shift him to 1B/DH and he's not super valuable there. Zimmerman is Rolen-lite at the moment -- love to have him on my team but not at a superstar price. Gordon (how's his defense?) is interesting.

Here's my "problem" with J Upton. Unless Chris Young tanks and quickly, he's an RF and he'll still be an RF 6 years from now. A mega-superstar in RF has to be somebody regularly posting OPS+s around 150-160. Does he really have that kind of talent?

Sure, you can speculate that he'll still be fine for CF at that age and be a Beltran/Edmonds type -- but what team is going to risk it and offer him the 2013 equivalent of 10/$200 on the hopes he can play a good CF?

17. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 15, 2008 at 06:23 PM (#2713435)

I buy and sell mortgage-backed securities there, levski. Should I be worried about the fact that I liquidated my life savings and bought BSC 55 calls with the proceeds this wednesday? Was that a bad idea?

Heh.

Rough times, Kyle, I hope you'll be OK.

I'm still kinda amazed that BSC lasted as long as it did considering some of the underlying issues. I know I got safely out of BSC back in June.

At the very least, I sure as hell hope Bonanza Ben and the gang announce a smaller-than-expected interest rate cut.

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Friday, March 14, 2008

The A’s First $100 Million Dollar Man

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