HI!!!

I DON'T KNOW IF OMAR "DESERVES" A HALL OF FAME PLAQUE, BUT I THINK HE GETS ONE FROM THE VET. COMMITTEE LATER ON IN LIFE...


WHY? BECAUSE THEY WILL FEEL THE NEED TO ENSHRINE PLAYERS FROM THEIR ERA, AND SPECIFICALLY, THOSE THAT ARE NOT SPECIFICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO STEROID SUSPICION!!!!

SORRY, JUST WANTED TO PRACTICE MY ALLITERATION :)

No, I'm pretty sure he'll cruise in via the BBWAA.

Gammons has been beating the Vizquel for HOF drum for a long, long time, since before he went behind the insider wall.

I think it'd be pretty stunning for a position player who received MVP votes once in his career, and finished 16th in that year, to make the HOF under any circumstances. Heck, he's only been an All-Star three times. No way anyone votes him in.

My guess is that Vizquel will top out around 15% to 20% of the vote. Maybe Gammons will be one of them.

I just don't see what makes him a HOFer. 9 Gold Gloves is his only claim. Yeah, he started his career before SS became sluggers, but even early in his career he wasn't a good hitter.

I think it'd be pretty stunning for a position player who received MVP votes once in his career, and finished 16th in that year, to make the HOF under any circumstances. Heck, he's only been an All-Star three times.

To expand on that, he didn't make his first ASG until he was 31. And he got 3 MVP points, but only one vote, as it was an 8th place vote.

WHY? BECAUSE THEY WILL FEEL THE NEED TO ENSHRINE PLAYERS FROM THEIR ERA, AND SPECIFICALLY, THOSE THAT ARE NOT SPECIFICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO STEROID SUSPICION!!!!

Trammell and Whitaker...

Love Neyer's answers.

The bottom line is that Vizquel needs to get in line behind Larkin and Trammell and arguably Concepcion...

Agree with that.

Gammons has a vote, right? Did he vote for Larkin and Trammell?

i still think he's going to be one of the wtf? honorees from this era. the bbwaa voters get all squishy about glovey, long-career shortstops and don't look too closely at their hitting. how trammell didn't get that love is still pretty mystifying.

9 Gold Gloves is his only claim.

Actually, 11.

Second most all time at short stop.

Most games played at shortstop in the history of the majors.

2,600+ hits.

Add it all up -- and it still falls far short of Cooperstown.

Or at least, it should. But with a high profile guy like Gammons beating the drum, and others saying they will vote for him, who knows.

Look at it this year -- this is one of about a half-dozen "Is Vizquel a Hall of Famer" articles posted here. It probably won't be the last. They have become self-generating, as some blogger or columnit-wit reads a Vizquel articles and feels compelled to respond -- and to include, as a sign of balance, quotes from guys who say that Vizquel is a Hall of Famer. Consider that Rich intereviewed four "experts" - and the two who actually have HOF votes said that he was a Hall of Famer -- and Ringolsby can pound the drum just as hard as Gammons.

Two years ago, if somebody suggested that Vizquel would be the beneficiary of this kind of blogger circle-jerk, would you have believed it?

So while I still think he will fall well short, I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Actually, 11.

Hmm, why did I think 9? Ah, 9 in the AL, 2 NL.

srul, this is what i'm talking about:

maranville: 23 seasons, 2600 hits, ops+ 82

appling: 20 seasons, 2749 hits, 0ps+ 112 (okay, he's the real deal)

aparicio: 18 seasons, 2677 hits, ops+ 82

ozzie: 19 seasons, 2460 hits, ops+ 87

alan trammell 20 seasons, 2365 hits, ops+ 110

omar 20 seasons, 2617 hits and counting, ops+ 83

the voters don't care where they fit on the talent spectrum. they make irrational decisions. the only thing i can think of about trammell is that he wasn't glamorous and his hit total is 'low'. i'm just sayin.

I have no qualms with Vizquel in since Maranville, a comparable type player, is in. But Trammell and Larkin should go in, too -- and you can argue that if only two of the three can make it, Vizquel should be the odd man out.

the voters don't care where they fit on the talent spectrum. they make irrational decisions. the only thing i can think of about trammell is that he wasn't glamorous and his hit total is 'low'. i'm just sayin.

Walt Davis made what I thought was a very good argument in the last Vizquel thread. BBWAA voters don't compare all players to all players. They start by taking the automatics - those who hit "magic numbers", of which there are exactly three: 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, and 300 pitching wins. A player who reached one of those without cheating gets in. Beyond that, they seem to decide what "category" a player best fits in and they compare him to other players in that category. I think that the result of this is that they tend to do a fairly poor job of distinguishing who they elect, beyond the "automatic" selections.

Vizquel clearly fits an archetype that BBWAA voters have historically liked: slick fielding, slap-hitting shortstops - Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio, Rabbit Maranville, Omar Vizquel. I would guess that most BBWAA voters don't have the faintest idea how one would go about comparing offense to defense, so it would never occur to them to compare Vizquel to Alan Trammell, because how do you go about comparing Trammell's obviously better offense to Vizquel's obviously better defense (note: I'm speaking as a BBWAA-er; I'm not sure how obvious Vizquel's defensive advantage over Trammell really is)?

Does Vizquel deserve to go into the Hall of Fame? I think not - unless his defense was much closer to Ozzie Smith's than the numbers I've seen suggest, and even then, he's at best borderline for a fairly large Hall (of course, the real Hall is fairly large). But he's going to get support and unless he gets squeezed out by crowded ballots (which I've argued before is a real possibility in the next 10 years or so) or the BBWAA suddenly starts focusing on a more rigorous statistical evaluation of its candidates, I would guess that Vizquel will be elected somewhere around his 5th - 10th year of eligibility.

9 Gold Gloves is his only claim.

Actually, 11.

Second most all time at short stop.

Most games played at shortstop in the history of the majors.

2,600+ hits.

How about a player with 2 all star game appearances, an MVP vote once, 3rd in CY voting once, holds MLB records for games pitched in, 68th all time in saves (Vizquel is 69th in hits)???

I have no qualms with Vizquel in since Maranville, a comparable type player, is in.

Do I correctly surmise that you have no problem with the inductions of Tony Fernandez, Dave Concepcion, Bert Campaneris or Jay Bell, either?

I think I'll draw up a list of corner outfielders/first basemen in history who I'll have no problem with going into the Hall of Fame once Jim Rice is in. It might take a while.

kiko, yes, i was thinking of walt davis' argument when i wrote mine, which was similar to his without examples. omar fits in with a group that is already in, a group that has one or two obvious qualifiers and then the rest.

After Jim Rice enters the Hall of Fame next year, I propose the en-masse induction of the following players:

The Standard: 2089 games, 128 OPS+

Rocky Colavito: 1841 games, 132 OPS+
Frank Howard: 1895 games, 140 OPS+
Norm Cash: 2089 games, 139 OPS+
Dick Allen: 1749 games, 156 OPS+
Rusty Staub: 2951 games, 124 OPS+
Dave Parker: 2466 games, 121 OPS+
Ken Singleton: 2082 games, 132 OPS+
Reggie Smith: 1987 games, 137 OPS+
Dwight Evans: 2606 games, 127 OPS+
Jack Clark: 1994 games, 137 OPS+
Brian Downing: 2344 games, 122 OPS+
Pedro Guerrero: 1536 games, 137 OPS+
Jose Canseco: 1887 games, 132 OPS+
Albert Belle: 1539 games, 143 OPS+
Fred McGriff: 2460 games, 134 OPS+
Jason Giambi: 1776 games, 147 OPS+
Larry Walker: 1988 games, 140 OPS+
Brian Giles: 1717 games, 139 OPS+

At the very least, we can take one section of the wall in the Hall and put all of these guys in it, maybe with a banner across the top that reads, "WHAT THE HELL, THEY WERE BETTER THAN JIM RICE".

Don't forget Jim Edmonds: 1872 games, 132 OPS+, awesome peak.

Yeah, I'm leaving out some guys that would actually make reasonable Hall of Famers, particulary CFs like Jim Edmonds and Bernie Williams. Tim Raines, etc. Probably should have left Dick Allen and Fred McGriff off, too.

I think I have a new project now: The What the Hell, They Were Better Than Jim Rice Wing of the Hall of Fame. We'll open it to include all of the players in history who are

a) Not in the silly Hall of Fame, and
b) Better than Jim Rice.

I'm guessing total membership numbers would be about the same as the silly Hall of Fame's.

I second, and also propose that we henceforth refer to the place in Cooperstown as "The Silly Hall of Fame."

The Hall of Merit take on Justin Zeth's list in #17:

Dick Allen, Dwight Evans - elected already. (Also Will Clark - elected already)
Reggie Smith - finished 4th in 2008 election. Very likely to be elected in 2009.
Ken Singleton - 16th in 2008 election; candidacy still alive.
Dale Murphy - 28th in 2008 election; probably not. (Justin didn't mention Murphy, but we might as well include him with Smith.)
Albert Belle - 30th in 2008 election; probably not.
Norm Cash - 32nd in 2008 election; probably not.
Bobby Bonds - 33rd in 2008 election; probably not. (Justin didn't mention him, either)
Rusty Staub - 37th.
Colavito, Frank Howard, Parker, Jack Clark, Downing, Guerrero, Canseco - no, already rejected, although most collect a few votes in the lower backlog.
Jim Rice - no, already rejected. See the line immediately above this.
McGriff - not yet eligible. Probably has a good chance with us, but the serious debate hasn't begun.
Giambi, Walker, Giles, Edmonds - not yet eligible.

And...

Maranville: rejected. 73rd in 2008 election.
Aparicio: rejected. 75th in 2008 election.
Ozzie Smith: elected on first ballot.
Alan Trammell: elected on first ballot. Close race between Smith and Trammell, with Trammell finishing 1st that year and Smith 2nd. The issue is being revisited right now as we rank the shortstops already elected. (Wagner first. After that - ???)
Concepcion - 22nd on 2008 ballot. Candidacy probably still alive, but a long shot.
Campaneris -47th on 2008 ballot. Rejected, but an interesting case.
Fernandez - rejected. Drew no votes in 2008.
Vizquel - not yet eligible, not yet debated. Draw your own conclusions about what we're likely to do.

I think Maranville is a whole different matter. The guy finished 2nd and 3rd in two consecutive years of MVP voting, and finished in the top 20 six other times. And they didn't have MVP votes some of the other years.

True, there were less players back then. But I think Maranville must have been a spectacular fielder and a field leader (one year as a player/manager), too, to get that sort of appreciation while he was still playing.

So while I still think he will fall well short, I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Don't worry guys. We saw the exact same fellating-type columns right before Joe Carter retired. "Oh he's borderline but I'd vote for him." "Consistent RBI guy-he'd get my vote" "1993!" etc. etc. 5 years of some healthy perspective later, and Carter got 19 votes and dropped off the ballot. Granted Vizquel is a type of player who fares better in the voting than the one-dimensional slugger (who curiously sees his stock-in-trade, RBIs, consistently undervalued for the Hall while overvalued for MVP), but the whinging on Omar's behalf is wasted.

At a superficial level, Vizquel belongs to the same offensive species as Ozzie Smith - OBP better than SLG, late-blooming, significant base stealing. Vizquel did hit a few home runs (as opposed to Ozzie, who hit none), but the times he played in have something to do with that.

One was to look at shape is to look take BA/OBP/SLG minus the park-adjusted league averages for those number from bb-ref.

Vizquel's two best years are +.53/+.44/-.12 and +.14/+.13/-.02. His career is +.04/0/-.70. He was 382-152 as a base stealer.

Ozzie's two best years are +.32/+.51/-.40 and +.27/+.55/-.19. His career is 0/+.09/-.62. He was 580-146 as a base stealer.

Oh, and just to put it out there: Aparicio +.04/-.18/-.48 career with 506-136 as a base stealer.

So Ozzie was a more extreme player, with a more pronounced OBP over SLG shape (which gets him further away from the comfort zone for run estimators). And there is a large difference in those base stealing totals.

We might have given Aparicio a shot in the Hall of Merit elections had we really been convinced he was that kind of defensive player. We weren't convinced that he was.

As for Maranville: his best two years are +.10/+.06/+.27 and +.07/+.06/+.36 (both deadball years); his career -.22/-.20/-.47. He had 291 SB and an incompletely recorded but unattractive number of CS. His HoM candidacy probably sank because of his offense, although Chris Cobb periodically calls for his reconsideration - because he probably was that kind of defensive player.

Not much to add, so I will just agree with the consensus.

1. It is silly to be talking about Vizquel at all considering some of the guys who are not in the HoF.
2. But the voters don't know who those other guys are, so buyer beware.

Oh, and "the silly hall of fame" indeed. And sillier every year.

Put me in the camp that says all this Vizquel talk is just talk. If he gets in it'll be after a long wait like Sutter or Gossage or Rice and by then the writers will have latched onto a new binky to tout and show how outside the box and cutting edge and forward thinking they are.

I'll throw this out there again - in a previous Vizquel thread, I looked back at prior BBWAA inductees, and couldn't find one who'd drawn anything like Omar's miniscule MVP balloting support. So, if the writers put him in, it'll be a huge change in voting pattern. Which doesn't necessarily mean they won't do it - I could see steroids and people's views on them inducing a huge change in voting pattern.

If he gets in it'll be after a long wait like Sutter or Gossage or Rice and by then the writers will have latched onto a new binky to tout and show how outside the box and cutting edge and forward thinking they are.

If he hangs around on the ballot for a while (which I doubt will happen) then there's no way he's going in. Jeter will absolutely kill his candidacy.

Jeter will absolutely kill his candidacy.

For one year.

- in a previous Vizquel thread, I looked back at prior BBWAA inductees, and couldn't find one who'd drawn anything like Omar's miniscule MVP balloting support.

MVP award shares for some recent BBWAA selections:

Ozzie Smith: 0.65 (one 2nd place finish; minor down-ballot support in other years)
Tony Perez: 0.93
Carlton Fisk: 1.27
Paul Molitor: 1.43
Tony Gwynn: 1.93
Dave Winfield: 2.20
Kirby Puckett: 2.56

So the lowest total does belong to the very person to whom Vizquel will be compared. And the next two belong to players with extremely long careers, which is also germane.

Some non-elected candidates:

Allen Trammell: 1.22 (But bringing up Trammell highlights the double jeopardy aspect of counting this way. The mistake of failing to vote Trammell the 1987 MVP becomes precedent for further mistakes in the HoF process.)
Barry Larkin: 1.10 (That low, even though he did win one.)
Joe Carter: 1.28 (Someone above was using Carter as an example of retirement-time buzz that fizzled.)
Jim Rice: 3.15 (which goes a very long way towards explaining his support.)

But where does Vizquel rank? At 0.01. Exactly once, he got 3 points in an MVP vote. (One 8th place vote, or a 9th and a 10th.) And that is obviously what Eric J's point was.

I liken Omar Vizquel to Neal Stephenson. I'll always brong both up in conversation. If you say that you like Stephenson, I file it away, and I won't ever let you pick what movie we go see. If you say that Vizquel belongs in the Hall of Fame, I want you in my fantasy leagues.

Is he a Hall of Famer?

Is there a Venezuelan Shortstop Hall of Fame?

If you say that you like Stephenson, I file it away, and I won't ever let you pick what movie we go see.

That's sort of a bizarre standard, as Stephenson has nothing to do with the movies.

Is there a Venezuelan Shortstop Hall of Fame?

The relative rank of Vizquel and Aparicio strikes me as non-obvious, although Aparicio was better thought of (MVP share 1.24) in his own time.

Just for fun...
Black Ink... 0
Gray Ink... 25 (average HOF 144)
HOF Standards... 33.9 (average HOF 50)
HOF Monitor... 104.5 (likely HOF 100+)

So, one method puts him in (barely), the others do not.

His HOF monitor points...
2 per Gold Glove = 22
2.5 for hitting over 300 in 1999
3 per 100 runs scored seasons = 6
1 per 35 double season = 2
3 per All-Star game = 9
5 per time in the WS as a SS = 10
2 per time in the playoffs but not WS at SS = 8
15 for getting over 2500 hits
30 for over 2100 games at SS
15 for over 2500 games at SS (bonus points)

He just misses another 15 for a 275 avg at SS (his is 273)

Hmm... I get 119.5 points, not the 104.5 listed on B-R. Still, it is interesting how that catches why the voters are getting hot and bothered by him. Raw games at SS and cracking 2500 hits covers 60 of his points. Cut out, say, 2 full seasons and his case drops off the map.

OCF: Pretty much, yeah. Ozzie would still beat Omar if it weren't for the second-place year, although they'd be in the same ballpark then. But he has the second-place year, which Omar probably won't get. Well, unless he rebounds and leads the Giants to the playoffs this year...

For one year.

I was thinking more that it'll really hurt whatever chances Vizquel has if the context for the discussion changes from Belanger/Concepcion/Ozzie to Ripken/Jeter/(A-Rod, Larkin ... Tejada?).

No matter, I think John in #23 nails it.