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Monday, November 10, 2008

The Baseball Analysts: Lederer: Adding Perspective to the Jacobs Deal

Hank - Jacobs: So Far Away? No, not really.

In order to like Blalock more than Jacobs, one would have to think their career stats were not indicative of their future performance. In other words, one would have to believe that Blalock is either better or Jacobs worse than what they have shown thus far. Is that possible? Sure. But it doesn’t seem too likely from my vantage point.

Given how well Blalock has hit at home, I realize that he may be worth more to Texas than any other team in baseball. That’s fine. However, it also reduces or eliminates any idea that the Rangers may try to trade him for pitching during the offseason because the acquiring club would have to give up a player *and* pay him $6.2 million. Signing Blalock on the hope of the Greater Fool Theory would suggest that Texas is the greatest fool of them all.

I have no axe to grind here. I have no reason to favor one over the other. I have never met or spoken to them, nor am I a fan of either player or of their teams. Instead, I am simply doing my best to be objective in analyzing the pros and cons of each so as to make an informed judgment on their merits as players and contract values.

My bottom line? It says here that Jacobs is either a cheaper version of Blalock or Blalock is a more expensive alternative to Jacobs.

Repoz Posted: November 10, 2008 at 09:54 AM | 6 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsKansas CityTexas

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   1. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: November 10, 2008 at 11:07 AM (#3006042)
I'm not swayed by the argument "The Rangers are dumber". Jon Daniels is not the yardstick I want for my team as far as MLB transactions.
   2. bob gaj  Posted: November 10, 2008 at 11:32 AM (#3006057)
what happened to blalock? why did he do so great up til 23/24, then come crashing down?

if anyone can fill me in...
   3. Johnny Clash  Posted: November 10, 2008 at 12:01 PM (#3006075)
...then come crashing down?

You missed his rebound. He was disappointing for two years, but he has hit well the last two years.
   4. Bob Dernier Cri  Posted: November 10, 2008 at 12:09 PM (#3006081)
Blalock was playing through quite a few injuries in '05 and '06, wanting to be the strong silent type, a role that the Rangers and the Texas media did not discourage.

His rebound has come with him sitting on the DL for the hundred or so games a year he's not healthy enough to play well in.
   5. EnderCN  Posted: November 10, 2008 at 12:28 PM (#3006093)
He is probably correct but with Blalock at least you have a few seasons where he actually looked like he was going to be a valuable player. Jacobs is just a low OBP bad fielding 1B with a little pop. He has to completely change as a player to be even average at 1B.
   6. Walt Davis  Posted: November 10, 2008 at 01:01 PM (#3006121)
Why nary a peep about Blalock but a mild uproar over Jacobs?

1. I, and I suspect many others, didn't realize Blalock was done as a 3B. He likely has little value as a 1B/DH.

2. The Rangers had Blalock on-hand and decided to re-up so as not to be a worse team; the Royals sought out Jacobs, gave up something for him, in an effort to "improve."

3. It was the first trade of the offseason.

4. Moore had expressly stated the team needed to improve their OBP then went out and got a 1B with a 299 OBP last season.

5. The 299 OBP -- you may have noticed that statheads obsess a wee bit on that stat.

6. As mentioned above, Blalock has had some very good hitting seasons. He hit like an average 1B at 23-24, fell off a cliff, and is back hitting (in limited time and possibly platooning) as a well above-average 1B. If Blalock can give the Rangers 450-500 PA of 125 OPS+, he's easily worth $6 M -- there's a reasonable chance of that.

7. Because of the James/Neyer/Poz/Rany nexus, KC actually gets a lot more attention around here (and probably elsewhere in saber-land) than the Rangers.

Rich makes too much of the money difference too. Jacobs is $3 M cheaper this year but he'll be making $6 M next year or the year after.
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