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Sunday, November 18, 2007

The Biz of Baseball: Brown: Why MLB Relocation/Expansion Won’t Be Happening Soon

From Maury..."A trip down memory lane with the Expos, Twins, and Fay Vincent.”

So, to the fans and students looking for answers on possible relocation or expansion, the answer is don’t look for it anytime soon. Relocation seems more remote than expansion, but either way, nothing now seems to point to any cities clamoring for an MLB franchise to land one. The need isn’t currently there (read, owners are making a healthy profit, which minimizes talk of expansion), and the political and legal difficulties make relocation even less appealing.

Just go back to DuPuy’s saying. The moon, and the stars, and the planets, and the money just aren’t aligned… right now.

Repoz Posted: November 18, 2007 at 02:00 PM | 22 comment(s)
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   1. Holliday in Alameda (jonathan) Posted: November 18, 2007 at 11:03 PM (#2619526)
Heh, no relocation? Tell that to Fremont!
   2. Maury Brown Posted: November 19, 2007 at 12:13 AM (#2619585)
Regional relocation is not the premise of the article. If the Rays move to the waterfront location in St. Petersburg, or the Marlins to the Orange Bowl location, it would not be deemed "relocation" by the definition of the story.

As the article outlines, this is about relocation to markets well removed from other MLB markets. Vegas... Portland... San Antonio, and the one that deserves a club again at some point... Montreal.
   3. Bob "Jugement" Dernier Posted: November 19, 2007 at 12:32 AM (#2619598)
I think relocation (or possibly, expansion) could happen if a city would build a perfect, drop-dead state-of-the-art ballpark on spec. Essentially that's how St. Petersburg got a team, though by the time it happened the stadium was all but obsolete, which points to the risk a city would take is building that beauty of a stadium ...
   4. Maury Brown Posted: November 19, 2007 at 12:46 AM (#2619611)
I think relocation (or possibly, expansion) could happen if a city would build a perfect, drop-dead state-of-the-art ballpark on spec.
I agree, although to do so is completely irresponsible in terms of how taxpayer dollars get allocated. Unless there is a 100% chance of a team arriving within 120 days of it being completed, it's just poor planning -- a waste of money when no revenues are coming into it. This is what happened with the Trop, and there are arena facilities in places like Kansas City that are still awaiting use.
   5. KJOK Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:13 AM (#2619700)
I still wouldn't be surprised if the next relocation involves adding two teams in Japan. The stadiums and fans are already there to support it. MLB only has to work out some scheduling logistics regarding long home and away stands for the two teams.
   6. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:32 AM (#2619712)
MLB only has to work out some scheduling logistics regarding long home and away stands for the two teams.
Those annoying little scheduling logistics are the reason this probably won't happen for another 20 years, at least.
   7. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:14 AM (#2619727)
I think relocation (or possibly, expansion) could happen if a city would build a perfect, drop-dead state-of-the-art ballpark on spec. Essentially that's how St. Petersburg got a team, though by the time it happened the stadium was all but obsolete, which points to the risk a city would take is building that beauty of a stadium ...

It's also how Oklahoma City got/is getting/will get the Sonics, right? (I guess it's possible that I should be speaking theoretically)
   8. Monsieur Valentin Posted: November 19, 2007 at 08:41 AM (#2619761)
It's also how Oklahoma City got/is getting/will get the Sonics, right?
That, and a hurricane.
   9. Russ Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:16 AM (#2619776)
Those annoying little scheduling logistics are the reason this probably won't happen for another 20 years, at least.


Agreed... I could see it as much more likely that there would be a linking of the two (well, three) leagues (similar to the American/National League merger in 1903), although there are definitely issues in sending North American players to Asia to play due to trades and drafting. There are 12 teams in the NPB, so they would only have to expand by 2-4 teams to bring about balance. If it were developed gradually (by letting the NPB teams first into the draft and bringing NPB product under the MLBAM umbrella, then start to develop minor league systems for those teams -- maybe Hawaii, Guam, other Asian/South Pacific countries), I don't see why this WOULDN'T work other than the standard reasons of greed, xenophobia, etc.


Inter-league play would allow for exposure to the other leagues, rotate inter-league play similar to how we do now, except you would probably bring and send entire divisions over to the other side. That really solves a lot of the travel problems. To me, (other than getting players to go over there), the real difficulty is in organizing the World Series.... would it become a 3 team round-robin?
   10. TerpNats Posted: November 19, 2007 at 10:10 AM (#2619812)
What probably makes more sense in the shorter term (say 10-15 years) than assimilating the two Japan leagues into the North American majors is expanding MLB by two teams into Latin America. The qualifiers are politics and economics. If a post-Castro Cuba reestablished relations with the U.S. and made sufficient political reforms towards a quasi-free market economy a la China, MLB would probably be interested in a Havana franchise. Monterrey, Mexico, where a few MLB regular-season games have been played, would be another site if Mexico's economy stabilizes.
   11. Andy H. Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:00 AM (#2619865)
It's also how Oklahoma City got/is getting/will get the Sonics, right? (I guess it's possible that I should be speaking theoretically)


I think it is easier to do this for basketball, because an NBA-quality arena can be used for other purposes - concerts, conferences,etc. - if an NBA team isn't immediately available.
   12. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:03 AM (#2619872)
What probably makes more sense in the shorter term (say 10-15 years) than assimilating the two Japan leagues into the North American majors is expanding MLB by two teams into Latin America.

Agreed. I have my doubts about Cuba, however, as the lack of surrounding areas would make it a horribly weak television market.

Monterrey would be great. A team in that location could be a financial powerhouse.
   13. Swedish Chef Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:05 AM (#2619877)
Caracas Reds
   14. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:13 AM (#2619889)
I don't see why this WOULDN'T work other than the standard reasons of greed, xenophobia, etc.

TRAVEL, players not wanting to play for those teams, drastic different time zones for games, dollar vs. yen issues, etc.

It ain't gonna happen any time soon. Latin American teams are much more likely.
   15. Ginger Nut Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:18 AM (#2619893)
I've only flown to Asia once, but it is absolutely brutal in terms of jet lag and just the sheer length of the flight. I have a hard time believing that it would really work to have teams making flights of that length. They could do some funky scheduling where the two Japanese teams would be at home for half the season and then away (in North America) for the other half but I think this would put those teams at a pretty serious disadvantage. Plus, where would their farm teams be located? If in North American, how could team executives keep track of their farm systems? If in Japan, then you have the problem of getting all those minor league players to Japan and figuring our who they would play.... I just can't see how this could possibly be worthwhile economically.

As for Cuba, that country is going to take a while to recover economically after Castro goes (assuming the government actually changes at that point). Even though the population of Puerto Rico is smaller, MLB would be much more likely to work in PR than in Cuba.
   16. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's! Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:23 AM (#2619902)
As for Cuba, that country is going to take a while to recover economically after Castro goes (assuming the government actually changes at that point). Even though the population of Puerto Rico is smaller, MLB would be much more likely to work in PR than in Cuba.

I think a team in Monterrey or Mexico City is the way to go. How much longer begore MLB sends a game to Europe? I was impressed by how well the Netherlands and Italy did in the World Cup.
   17. A Surfeit of Peaches Graham (SdeB) Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:30 AM (#2619916)
I've only flown to Asia once, but it is absolutely brutal in terms of jet lag and just the sheer length of the flight. I have a hard time believing that it would really work to have teams making flights of that length.

They could bring back the Concorde.
   18. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:32 AM (#2619919)
I think it is easier to do this for basketball, because an NBA-quality arena can be used for other purposes - concerts, conferences,etc. - if an NBA team isn't immediately available.

You're right, Omaha basically did the same thing with its "Qwest Center". The Creighton and UN-Omaha basketball teams are in way too nice of a facility right now.
   19. Loren F.'s well-anchored glenoid Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:36 AM (#2619924)
You don't need to add teams to expand into Mexico. Just turn the Tampa Bay Rays into the Monterrey Rays, or the Reyes, or the MonterRays or something. On serious note, I think it would be more prudent to try one team in Mexico before committing to two teams there -- especially as I don't trust the business acumen of MLB.
   20. Boots Day Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:44 AM (#2619934)
I think the first step is to add a major league team in Pittsburgh.
   21. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's! Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:46 AM (#2619935)
You don't need to add teams to expand into Mexico. Just turn the Tampa Bay Rays into the Monterrey Rays, or the Reyes, or the MonterRays or something. On serious note, I think it would be more prudent to try one team in Mexico before committing to two teams there -- especially as I don't trust the business acumen of MLB.

Out of curiosity, why don't you trust their acumen. They're raking in cash right now and, while I loathe Selig for many reasons, I have to give the devil his due--MLB is more profitable than its ever been.
   22. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: November 19, 2007 at 12:13 PM (#2619962)
I still wouldn't be surprised if the next relocation involves adding two teams in Japan.

I don't know either way, but would Japan even want two MLB expansion teams? I think its a bit presumptive to assume they would. They seem to like their brand of baseball, which is much different from MLB, and I remember reading in "You Gotta Have Wa" that there was, and probably still is, some resistence to gaijin.

I think the more likely scenario is an agreement between MLB and the Japan League to have separate leagues that have a post-season series, much like the AL and NL originally were. Maybe even they'll have a few interleague series per year eventually.

Mexico is intriguing, but until the Mexican economy is a bit more on par with Canada and the U.S., I still have a hard time seeing a Mexican franchise being viable. There are still markets like Portland, San Antonio, a third New York team, and someday possibly Vegas that would be a lot more attractive than a Mexican, Latin American or Japanese market. And that's assuming relocation or expansion became attractive, which as Maury points out, it is not.
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