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Monday, March 19, 2007

The Book Blog: Tango: Community Forecasts

Feel like you’re wasting time with that Blow Bubbles Not Smoke Program?...Well, here’s a real community project to get behind!

I’ve seen the results of six forecasting systems this year. (I’m sure some of you have seen more than that.) And all were based on some algorithm with little leeway for human interaction. Why is that? Because we can’t trust any single person’s opinion. But, what if we can get a consensus, a Wisdom of Crowds? Who knows more about whether Papelbon will be a starter or reliever this year: an algorithm or a Redsox fan? Who knows more about the number of games a 2006-injured Hideki Matsui will play in 2007: an algorithm or a Yankees fan? There are certain human observation elements that are critical for forecasting. That’s where you can come in, and why you are here.

Go to the page of your favorite team, and put in the OPS (OBP+SLG) and ERA you expect from as many players as you feel comfortable. As well, if you can, note the number of games for the non-pitchers and the role for the pitchers. The players listed are on the 40-man roster.

Repoz Posted: March 19, 2007 at 11:52 AM | 11 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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1. Bobby Savoy Posted: March 19, 2007 at 12:37 PM (#2313993)

Can someone help me out? There's a term or a phrase or a theory that I can't remember. Here's the analogy for the unremembered term/phrase/theory: say we're not exactly sure where a target is, so we give a group of people an arrow to shoot at where they think this target is. After a while, the arrangement of arrows gives us a good idea of the location of the target. And the more arrows, the better the idea. Any help?

2. TVerik, AKA Snoopy Snoopy Poop Dog Posted: March 19, 2007 at 12:46 PM (#2313999)

I think we can assume that most Yankee fans are consumers of Yankee media - YES for the games, and some NY newspaper voice as well.

Therefore, a mass "opinion poll", like the one proposed here, is flawed for this reason. If Michael Kay, for example, talks about Matsui's good health every single day on TV, I'm reasonably sure that an opinion sample of fans will believe good things about Matsui's health.

I'm a believer in Wikipedia, but one of the reasons I think it generally works is that people from many different backgrounds can and do participate. Leaving aside the self-selection evident in those who would read and respond to a statement on Tango's site, I believe that sports fans generally share much of their information culture.

3. MSI Posted: March 19, 2007 at 01:37 PM (#2314032)

The fans doing tango tiger are probably very well informed and not the masses of Yankee fans that voted Melky Cabrera's catch last year as the play of the year on MLB.com's player's choice awards...over Gary Mathews Jr.'s catch.

4. TVerik, AKA Snoopy Snoopy Poop Dog Posted: March 19, 2007 at 01:44 PM (#2314040)

But those fans are likely not much less influenced by groupthink - just a different flavor.

5. bibigon Posted: March 19, 2007 at 01:50 PM (#2314045)

Can someone help me out? There's a term or a phrase or a theory that I can't remember.

The Wisdom of the crowd is probably what you're looking for here.

The fans doing tango tiger are probably very well informed and not the masses of Yankee fans that voted Melky Cabrera's catch last year as the play of the year on MLB.com's player's choice awards...over Gary Mathews Jr.'s catch.

The key to the Wisdom of the Crowds idea is that you have a diverse group of opinions, and that includes not just selecting from the well informed.

My biggest concern about this is that Tango has posted this on SoSH for instance, which means that Red Sox fans will have a disproportionate impact on the Red Sox players' projection, thus again, impacting the diversity of the crowd. Still, I think this is a tremendous idea - all else being equal, I'd expect this to be better than any other projection system.

6. Kyle S Posted: March 19, 2007 at 02:14 PM (#2314056)

My biggest concern about this is that Tango has posted this on SoSH for instance,

Papelbon's projection: 35 GS, 265 IP, 115 H, 25 ER, 15 BB, 425 K

7. MSI Posted: March 19, 2007 at 03:22 PM (#2314092)

John Sickels minorleagueball does community projections which are quite good, but they are just a sampling.

8. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: March 19, 2007 at 03:25 PM (#2314093)

Papelbon's projection: 35 GS, 265 IP, 115 H, 25 ER, 15 BB, 425 K

That many walks?!

9. smileyy Posted: March 19, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2314177)

#1: "Monte Carlo simulation" is a similar concept as well, though using a random generator rather than human input.

10. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: March 19, 2007 at 06:13 PM (#2314209)

Papelbon's 2007 W-L: 28 - (-3)

11. EddieA Posted: April 02, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2323009)

Do we have results somewhere?

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The Book Blog: Tango: Community Forecasts

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