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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Stick to politics…
Back when Chipper was hitting .420, Nate Silver gave him a 13% chance of hitting .400. He based that on Chipper being a true .348 hitter. I used Bayes to come up with him being a true .321 hitter. Marcel, at the start of the season, forecasted him to be a true .307 hitter.
From the point when we all made our bets…
.348 Nate Silver
.330 Marcel (includes using 2008-to-date of Jun 11 performance)
.321 Tango (via Bayes, using only 2008-to-date of Jun 11 performance)
.307 Marcel (excluding any 2008 performance)
...this is what Chipper Jones did: he went 68 for 220, for a .309 batting average. Seeing that a .3072 batting average on 220 AB gives you 67.6 hits, which we get to round to 68 hits, the dumb monkey nailed Chipper’s batting average perfectly.
Chalk up another win…
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(Not that it really means anything. After all, as we bore witness, anything can happen in 219 AB, and so, anything could have happened in 220 AB. 92 hits here, or 68 hits there, all from the same guy just months apart, is not a big deal.)
Then I guess I don't know why they brought it up at all.
With those knees? Doubtful.
Under that condition, 99.44% of blogs will shut down and get back to productive work for corporate America. Blasphemy!
If you insist on a decent blog post on the matter, then here you go.
***
Yes, of course, if you were to bet, either the "smart" Marcel pick (.330) or the Bayes pick (.321) would have been the one to go on.
The best pick, as it turns out, was the "dumb" monkey pick of .307, that completely ignored the .420 batting average through Jun 10.
And like I said, it doesn't really mean anything...
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