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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The Book Blog: Tangotiger: Will the real Chipper Jones please stand up?

Stick to politics…

Back when Chipper was hitting .420, Nate Silver gave him a 13% chance of hitting .400. He based that on Chipper being a true .348 hitter. I used Bayes to come up with him being a true .321 hitter. Marcel, at the start of the season, forecasted him to be a true .307 hitter.

From the point when we all made our bets…
.348 Nate Silver
.330 Marcel (includes using 2008-to-date of Jun 11 performance)
.321 Tango (via Bayes, using only 2008-to-date of Jun 11 performance)
.307 Marcel (excluding any 2008 performance)
...this is what Chipper Jones did: he went 68 for 220, for a .309 batting average. Seeing that a .3072 batting average on 220 AB gives you 67.6 hits, which we get to round to 68 hits, the dumb monkey nailed Chipper’s batting average perfectly.

Chalk up another win…

Repoz Posted: November 12, 2008 at 05:27 PM | 8 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Projections, Atlanta

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1. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: November 12, 2008 at 05:54 PM (#3007817)

Well, that settles it - Tom Tango has to produce his own version of 538.com for 2012 so we can see who's really más macho...

2. Rodder Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:07 PM (#3007825)

I understand he lost under the terms of the bet, but I think Silver made the most accurate statement, as Jones ended with a .364 average for the year, and has hit .350 over the last two seasons. I don't see how the sample of 220 AB really shows anything.

3. Rodder Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:13 PM (#3007829)

Now that I read the rest of the post:

(Not that it really means anything. After all, as we bore witness, anything can happen in 219 AB, and so, anything could have happened in 220 AB. 92 hits here, or 68 hits there, all from the same guy just months apart, is not a big deal.)

Then I guess I don't know why they brought it up at all.

4. andrewberg of udub law Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:59 PM (#3007854)

"Will the real Chipper Johnes please stand up?"

With those knees? Doubtful.

5. PreservedFish Posted: November 12, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#3007855)

Not clear how this is a win for Marcel - the estimate using the 2008 data should have been the best possible one, Marcel's "true" projection.

6. Sid Hārtman Gautama Posted: November 12, 2008 at 07:55 PM (#3007882)

A quick estimate using the 2008 data gives me a projected .320 avg for chipper as of June 1, 2008. Somebody want to check my math?

7. Tango Posted: November 12, 2008 at 08:23 PM (#3007896)

Then I guess I don't know why they brought it up at all.

Under that condition, 99.44% of blogs will shut down and get back to productive work for corporate America. Blasphemy!

If you insist on a decent blog post on the matter, then here you go.

***

Yes, of course, if you were to bet, either the "smart" Marcel pick (.330) or the Bayes pick (.321) would have been the one to go on.

The best pick, as it turns out, was the "dumb" monkey pick of .307, that completely ignored the .420 batting average through Jun 10.

And like I said, it doesn't really mean anything...

8. Walt Davis Posted: November 13, 2008 at 01:04 AM (#3007971)

No surprise that a dumb chimp is smarter than your typical Bayesian. :-)

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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The Book Blog: Tangotiger: Will the real Chipper Jones please stand up?

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