The Good Phight: Cohen: Ryan Howard’s Slump

Citizen K...all day!

When talking about early season slumps, it’s a common refrain for analysts to note that the slump is magnified by it occurring early in the season.  After all, if a player goes through a tough month in July, he’ll have April through June numbers to “absorb” the July slump.  But, if a player slumps in April, all he’ll have is April numbers, and he’ll look awful.

With that nugget in mind, I investigated Ryan Howard’s awful start to 2008.  36 games into the season, Howard’s triple-slash numbers are a miserable .165/.285/.331.  His OPS is a Nunez-esque .616.  He’s striking out to the tune of .34 Ks per plate appearance and homering only .040 times per plate appearance.

But has he struggled like this before over the course of 36 games but we’ve just not been able to see it because it’s been in the middle of a season instead of the start?  The very clear answer to that question is no.  What we’re seeing from Howard is a unique slump in his major league career.  Details if you follow the jump....

...Strikeout Rate: Some theories are that Howard’s horrible stretch now is because he’s striking out more than he ever has before.  But that’s not true.  In the middle of last year, from June 8 to July 20, Howard struck out .365 times per plate appearance compared to .338 this year.  During that stretch of striking out last year, Howard hit .295/.377/.664.  His strikeout rate clearly wasn’t too much of an impediment then.