BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: The Good Phight: Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell: Mr. Clutch and Mr. Not-So-Much

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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

The Good Phight: Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell: Mr. Clutch and Mr. Not-So-Much

Patrick, Ryan: How They Won the War…with the Mets. (well, Ryan anyway)

What’s amazing about Howard’s season is just how good he’s been since May 9. Before May 9, he was horrendous. On that date, his numbers were .167/.282/.326 for an OPS of .608. That’s pretty much incomprehensible for a player of Howard’s caliber. But, since then, he’s been a monster. He’s hit to the tune of .273/.352/.600 for an OPS of .952. That’s still less than his career OPS of .969 and is nothing compared to his MVP year 1.084 OPS. But, a .952 OPS would place him 9th in the majors and 5th in the NL this year. I’d say he’s been pretty good from May 10 on.

And his counting stats have been even more impressive. Since May 10, he’s played 114 games. In those games, he has 39 home runs, 119 RBI, and 77 runs scored. Translated over an entire season’s worth of games, that’s a pace for 55 home runs, 169 RBI, and 109 runs. Now that’s production.

On the other hand, we have Pat Burrell. Last night, he struck out five times in five plate appearances. Two of those strikeouts came with men on base when the Phillies needed a run—in the fifth when the Phils were ahead by only one and two men were on; and in the seventh when the Phils were down by two and had a man on third. Burrell flailed at the plate. Luckily, Howard picked him up last night with his 8th inning homer.

Repoz Posted: September 17, 2008 at 03:51 PM | 7 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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1. McCoy Posted: September 17, 2008 at 05:19 PM (#2945022)

I see they have gone back to hating on Pat. I wish they would make up their mind over there.

2. SkyKing162 Posted: September 17, 2008 at 05:24 PM (#2945030)

Howard's WPA: +1.4
Burrell's WPA: +3.6

Howard's clutchiness: -1.2
Burrell's clutchiness: +1.0

Howard's performance in "close and late" situations: .163/.303/.347 119 PAs
Burrell's performance in "close and late" situations: .286/.439/.607 107 PAs

3. Cowboy Popup Posted: September 17, 2008 at 05:44 PM (#2945055)

But, since then, he’s been a monster. He’s hit to the tune of .273/.352/.600 for an OPS of .952. That’s still less than his career OPS of .969 and is nothing compared to his MVP year 1.084 OPS. But, a .952 OPS would place him 9th in the majors and 5th in the NL this year. I’d say he’s been pretty good from May 10 on.

I'd say that's a pretty liberal use of the word monster. A .952 OPS in Citizen's Bank Park does conjure up the images of an offensive monster in my mind. When I saw the word, I thought he'd have at least eclipsed a 1.000 OPS. I mean, really monster out to be used to refer to numbers that you really only see at the very top of the league (Pujols like numbers) when you expand the sample size to a full year, not numbers that would be ninth best in the NL. Pretty good fits a whole lot better IMO. Not that I am the person to set the definitive use of the term, I just think that those numbers aren't particularly monstrous.

4. Bill Liming Posted: September 17, 2008 at 06:27 PM (#2945103)

Burrell on May 9, 303/440/622. Burrell since Aug 1, 178/275/287. Burrell prior to Aug 1, 279/400/473.

Burrell's opening hot streak, along with Utley's, carried Howard's anemic effort, they weren't grossly different in the middle, and now Howard's carrying the team.

It's all just fun with endpoints, the Phillies wouldn't be where they are now without either of their hot streaks. If anything, Burrell's total performance is about on par with expectations, while Howard's is still below expectation. If Howard had been Howard in April/June/August, the Phils would probably have a cushion right now.

5. fletch Posted: September 18, 2008 at 02:32 AM (#2945927)

I see they have gone back to hating on Pat. I wish they would make up their mind over there.

@McCoy We feel the same way about Burrell.

6. Crispix Attacks Posted: September 18, 2008 at 02:36 AM (#2945930)

I see they have gone back to hating on Pat. I wish they would make up their mind over there.

Generally people who follow a team closely tend to observe which players are having multi-month-long streaks of terrible performance, and which players are having incredible hot streaks, and calibrate their praise and criticism according to those sorts of things, instead of averaging out a player's total performance over a 1-, 3- or 5-year period and then expressing virtually identical opinions of him every day, becoming 0.1% more critical after a bad day and 0.1% more positive after a good day.

It's pathetically subjective, but some people fall victim to the sort of mentality that leads to biasing current events over past events when talking about current events.

7. The District Attorney Posted: September 18, 2008 at 12:59 PM (#2946081)

At least it's progress in the sense that the black guy is labeled clutch and the white guy is labeled the choker.

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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

The Good Phight: Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell: Mr. Clutch and Mr. Not-So-Much

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