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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Since the Game Chatter does NOT have today’s games up yet, I figured I’d submit a catch-all discussion thread which, if I’m lucky, someone will sticky until Game Chatter shows up.
Gamingboy
Posted: October 02, 2008 at 02:37 PM | 865 comment(s)
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Cubs now 9-20 in playoff games since 1984. On a 7-game playoff losing streak by a combined score of 44-15. Lost the last four games by a combined 22-7 margin despite being considered heavy statistical favorites in both. Unbelievable.
Now that I got that pessimism out of the way, the Cubs have to hope they get lucky and use a good pitcher (Zambrano) to beat a better one (Billingsley, who is actually better than Lowe). If they somehow manage that, it's a three-game series where they send out the better pitcher all three times. Especially Harden/Kuroda.
PS Zambrano is a better pitcher than Billingsley.
I still say we don't lose the series unless we get swept.
That's gotta hurt.
(shuts Francesspool off)
Prove it.
"I didn't get a chance to hammer you for this elsewhere Kyle(at least not recently), but come on who cares what the Cubs did in the playoffs in years past. Will Clark's ungodliness and Steve Garvey's Aryanism has nothing to do with yesterday."
I've asked this a hundred places and never gotten an answer. At what degree of underperformance in the playoffs and at what sample size does there begin to be reason to suspect whatever common threads there are in the organization is causing some sort of effect?
The Cubs aren't just getting beat, they are getting blown out against equal or inferior competition.
The only Cubs playoff game that they have lost to a team clearly inferior (since 1984) was yesterday. Last year's Cubs team stunk, relatively; just because they were a chic pick doesn't mean they were expected to win.
Pass.
How much of a run differential difference do you need before you are clearly superior?
"Pass."
Okay, pick a reasonable pitching stat and I'll take the time to look it up.
It's not like Jim Hendry has been the GM for the last 25 years. If you want to make that argument with regards to Schuerholz in the 90s, go ahead. I'm not buying that there's something in the hiring process of the plethora of GMs and CEOs the Cubs have gone through in my time on earth.
It's because his #### don't work in the playoffs.
They do that in TB and also in Toronto.
The same company hired all them.
But what about ballpark? Scheduling? Fans? Weather patterns?
I'm not arguing for an effect. I'm asking a simple question that nobody ever wants to answer: How much sample size would be needed at various levels of underperformance before we'd have reason to suspect an effect? 25 games at highly negative run differential? 50? 100 with a poor record in close games? 1000?
Billingsley has been a better pitcher this year according to VORP. Zambranos hitting almost makes up the difference, but not quite. I suppose it would be fair to say that Billngsley has been a better pitcher this year. It's his first full season, whereas, Zambrano has been a very good pitcher since 2003. So I don't think it is quite fair to say that Billingsley is the better pitcher, unless you are also prepared to say that Ryan Dempster is a better pitcher than, say, Roy Oswalt. He's not.
Very bad analogy. Dempster had a lot of non-dominant years before this year.
And Billingsley had a better ERA+ than Zambrano last season too.
Hockey is actually pretty big here.
Ow.
I've been to the Rogers Centre and the King Dome, as well as SafeCo with the roof closed. (Actually, it closed between innings at one point. I felt like they should have been playing "Also Sprach Zarathustra".) The King Dome was easily the worst. But I'd still rather watch a game in the stinging rain at Phone Company Park in SF than indoors in Toronto. Baseball is just weird inside. Everything echoes, and it smells like a combination locker-room and sporting goods store.
It's a pointless debate, anyway, because if one of them is *slightly* better than the other one, it isn't going to make a damn bit of difference in TODAY's game, now is it? Any advantage for either pitcher would be negligible in a one game setting.
I don't consider a half-run per game difference to be negligible. Zambrano has been a 3.90 ERA pitcher for two straight seasons now, he's proven that's who he is right now.
Agreed, though, that the odds are against that half-run both showing up and being the difference.
Tampa Bay
James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine
Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Chad Bradford, Trever Miller, David Price
Dioner Navarro, Michel Hernandez
Carlos Pena, Willy Aybar, Cliff Floyd
Akinori Iwamura, Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist
Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Gabe Gross, Eric Hinske, Rocco Baldelli, Fernando Perez
Chicago
Javier Vazquez, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd
Bobby Jenks, Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, D.J. Carrasco, Clayton Richard, Adam Russell
A.J. Pierzynski, Toby Hall
Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Nick Swisher
Alexei Ramirez, Juan Uribe, Orlando Cabrera, Josh Fields
Dewayne Wise, Ken Griffey, Jermaine Dye, Brian Anderson, Jerry Owens
1. PETCO Park
2. PNC
3. Camden Yards
4. Citizen's Bank
5. Jacobs/Progressive
6. Yankee Stadium
7. Turner Field
8. Angels Stadium (post-renovation)
9. Dodger Stadium
10. Tropicana Field
11. Skydome/Rogers Centre (only have been there with roof closed)
12. Shea Stadium
others I've attended, no particular order
Carrier Dome
Minute Maid
Metrodome
Miller Park
RCA Dome
Astrodome
I admit that my sample is sorely limited. I've never been to a lot of the supposedly nicer new-wave parks (PNC, Coors), or to Wrigley.
In an actually semi-relevant point, I like the Rays' mohawks.
I think Johnny Mize did it twice over 7 days once.
probably none, a team 5 years remove from itself, in todays game is a vastly different team, and a sample from 10 years ago has zero to do with the current team playing.
1. Fenway Park (just once, but it was great)
2. Skydome/Rogers Center (dome open) (numerous times, the CN Tower looks really cool overhead)
3. Yankee Stadium (just once, not so good)
4. Skydome/Rogers Center (dome closed) (numerous times, it feels like playing in your rec room)
5. Exhibition Stadium (old Toronto park) (numerous times)
6. Tiger Stadium (just once, what a f*cking hole)
I've also been to Skydome/Rogers Center three times when they've closed the dome in the middle of the game.
It's a REALLY weird sensation to see it slowly block out the sky.
He also sings "Viva Viagra" really well.
Yeah, both games I saw at Rogers were dome closed. It felt like watching basketball, but all the guys have had the wrong equipment issued.
I didn't remember Juan Uribe having a grey beard, either. He looks like Tony Gwynn.
It's actually not unlike the situation in music, but that's a long story.
In order of preference:
1. Coors Field (Surprise!)
2. Camden Yards
3. Big Phone Company Park, SF
4. Fenway Park
5. Turner Field
6. Dodger Stadium
7. The Big A (an experience marred by having Roseanne Barr and Tom Arnold necking about 6 rows in front of me).
8. Jack Murphy Stadium
9. Oakland Coliseum
10. The Trop
11. Candlestick Park
12. Arlington Stadium (the old one, on an evening where the temp never got below 100).
At least Fenway had a reason (allocated space at the time).
The Trop didn't HAVE to have low-hanging catwalks.
While I don't mind what they have in Minute Maid Park, the hump-and-pole combo in center field always gets comments from my friends/relatives as being "a stupid idea".
This place is a butthole. Worst non-dome stadium I've ever been to. But it's cheap as ####, so I used to go there a lot. You get half the experience of Phone Behemoth for a tenth the price.
I tend to agree, but considering a day game there when I was growing up was warmer and cheaper than Candlestick, I stand by my rating.
2. Dodger Stadium
3. LA Coliseum (For this year's exhibition, so everything was fixed up. It was probably a hole for regular baseball games.)
4. New Comiskey
5. Big A post-renovation
6. Petco
7. Where the Giants play now
8. Busch II
9. Wrigley (Looks nice on TV, but it smelled like piss and the games I went to involved the 1980's and early 1990's Cubs)
10. Coors
11. The D-Backs field
12. Big A pre-renovation
13. Jack Murphy
14. Oakland
Best: Fenway, PacBell, Coors, Wrigley
Very good: Miller, Nats, Yankee, BallparkatArlington, Tiger, Old Comiskey, Kaufmann, Camden
I liked: Minute Maid, County Stadium, Cleveland Muni. the Big A (old), new Comiskey
OK: Jack Murphy, Fulton County
not so good: Metrodome, Shea, Busch(old hot turf version),
hated: Kingdome
1) Wrigley Field
2) PNC Park
3) where the Durham Bulls play
4) where the Williamsport Crosscutters play
5) Veterans Stadium
6) (tie) where the Washington Wild Things play
6) (tie) where the Mahoning Valley Scrappers play
8) Lackawanna County Stadium
20) Three Rivers Stadium
But aren't there actual games going on now?!?!? Not that I can hear or see them anywhere in this building.
The Oakland Coliseum is a perfectly fine place to watch a baseball game and is easily accessible by public transit as well.
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