[Moore] thinks the guy has a chance to emerge.

Alert, alert: a still-wet-behind-the-ears Kenny Williams said the same thing about Todd Ritchie.

I'm sure there are differences, but I will never hear that breakout stuff without remembering three pitchers for one that turned out to be worse than bad.

i've actually liked meche for a while now but even still, i don't think he's worth that contract.

i also liked ted lily, and similarily thought he wasn't worth his contract either...

February is the worst sports month. For baseball writers, it's the time of year when people write articles that assume that many readers didn't bother to read about baseball all offseason up until now, when pitchers and catchers report. We get the same articles that have been written before. The Royals were willing to pay the price to get a free agent pitcher, and they chose the one they thought had the most upside. Keith Law had him ranked higher than Zito. Still, there is little evidence outside of visual scouting and intuition that this guy will significantly improve, which he will of course have to do to for the contract not to be a disaster. This has all been written before. The season really needs to start.

i've actually liked meche for a while now but even still, i don't think he's worth that contract.

I think I can count on my left hand the number of free agents Primates think was worth the contract. ;)

Why did I not know Joe Po had a blog?

His take is pretty similar to mine. I wasn't thrilled with the deal, but I didn't think it was nearly as bad as many others seemed to think it was. Believe it or not, the Royals can actually afford to sign a guy like this, even if he flops. They have some big revenue increases coming up and great financial flexibility. If you have the financial wherewithal, why not take a chance? Its better than signing Suppan or Batista.

Still, there is little evidence outside of visual scouting and intuition that this guy will significantly improve,

His strikeout numbers took a big jump last year.

This has become a real crusade for Poz, hasn't it? I disagree with him almost completely, but hey, you go get 'em Joe.

Alert, alert: a still-wet-behind-the-ears Kenny Williams said the same thing about Todd Ritchie.

At least the Royals are only giving up money for Meche.

Ken Williams is lucky that the talent he dealt didn't really pan out.

"His take is pretty similar to mine. I wasn't thrilled with the deal, but I didn't think it was nearly as bad as many others seemed to think it was."

Same here. I like the bounce in K-rate, and I think the big home-road split is more fluky than anything else.

If I'm wrong, what the hell. It's not like that's never happened before...

When I was a kid my first car was a Volkswagen beetle. Not the cutesy yuppie one, but one of the earlier models. A 1967. The heater didn't work very well, it cornered without grace or feel. Nonetheless that little bug generally got me where I wanted to go. Not well, or with any flair, but it was never meant to be, and could not be, that kind of car. One night I dreamed there was a spanking new Porshce in my garage, and that it was mine. The dream was so vivid that despite not having believed in Santa Claus for at least a decade I went out the following morning for a look. There, parked, and the same color and with the same rust as the day before, was my Volkswagen beetle. It had not turned into a Porsche overnight even though my subconscious had fervently wished it would.

Joe has a very valid point/keen observation in paragraphs 2 and 3 of TFA. Why do you suppose there is still so much venom or contempt or both thrown at this signing, now that it can be put in context of all the others, like Padilla's, Lilly's, Zito's etc.? This contract is not the outlier "5 years, $55 million for Gil Meche" sounds like when you say it out loud.

I think a lot of it lies in the fact the Royals have been whining the small market blues the last few years.

I think it also lies in the fact that out of all of the pitchers signed to these contracts, they all had at least one full season when they were quite good. Even Marquis had a 113 ERA+ once. Meche not only has a career ERA+ of 96, but he has never had an above average full season. He had a couple of injury interrupted good 1/2 seasons 4 years ago. But never a full above average season. Never. At least with the others you're hoping that they might return to a previous level of performance, not become something that they've never been despite ample opportunity.

#12 hits it exactly right. OK, he makes one error. That good 1/2 season wasn't 4 years ago ... it was 2000!!

And sure, the K-rate spiked but his K/BB is still less than 2. Less than a hit an inning ... but a WHIP over 1.4 and right in line with his career line.

Gil Meche is a great pitcher to take a chance on, the kind of guy you sign cheap, maybe lots of incentives, maybe a high-priced option. It's true that he could be the next Chris Carpenter. But nobody signed Carpenter to a Carpenter-like contract until he showed he was Carpenter. :-)

Based on his track record, the Royals should expect about 700 IP of just below-average pitching from Meche over 5 years. That is not 5/$55 even in today's market.

Gil Meche is a great pitcher to take a chance on, the kind of guy you sign cheap, maybe lots of incentives, maybe a high-priced option. It's true that he could be the next Chris Carpenter. But nobody signed Carpenter to a Carpenter-like contract until he showed he was Carpenter. :-)

In a more sane economic environment, sure, no one would give $55 mill to a player like Meche; but no one was going to sign Meche on the cheap this off-season. If the Royals hadn't signed him, someone else would have given him at least $10 million a year to pitch "just-below average". Given the size of other teams' offers for Meche, how does Meche's contract not fit "today's market"?

The other thing that's sometimes overlooked by people who aren't fans of a crappy perennial loser in a tiny city is that you can't pull any free agents of quality without overpaying somewhat when you're in that situation. If a guy gets an offer from a good team for a lot of money and an offer from a bad team for only a little more, he's just going to use the bad team's offer to squeeze more money out of the good team, then take the good team's offer.