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Thursday, November 20, 2008

THT: Brattain: White Flag?

Tolkien once wrote that “celler door” are the most beautiful sounding words ever spoken. I don’t believe he ever heard “Ricciardi debellatio”.

There are rumblings that the Toronto Blue Jays may simply punt on 2009. With the injuries to Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum and the likely departure of A.J. Burnett it may be that absent a significant infusion of cash, there is no way the Jays feel they can compete with the still rising (and current AL champion) Tampa Bay Rays, the wealthy and organizationally solid Boston Red Sox and the major reloading of the New York Yankees.

On top of the yawing gap in the middle of the starting rotation there is no bona fide DH to speak of (too early to know if Travis Snider is ready to be a full time masher); the middle infield is uncertain while Aaron Hill continues to recover and the shortstop position still undecided; the infield corners could be excellent defensively and competent offensively or they could fall off a cliff; and while Rod Barajas occasionally wields a hot stick, nobody would consider Toronto catching to be upper-echelon.

...It’ll be depressing if the Jays pass on 2009 but after last season, I hope Ricciardi will not be the man making the big decisions in 2010-11 otherwise that window will close while he worries about the Jays in 2016.

Repoz Posted: November 20, 2008 at 08:52 AM | 16 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralToronto

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   1. snowles Posted: November 20, 2008 at 09:41 AM (#3012932)
I don't know, JP says the team is not going to get involved in free agency, and the very first free agent pitcher to sign tells the world the Jays were one of the teams kicking the tires on him.

What JP says and eventually does are often two different things. Last year was supposed to be quiet too, but the team signed Eckstein, traded for Scutaro and Rolen, and dangled Rios for Lincecum.

I wouldn't be surprised to see either Bradley or Giambi sign there for 2 yrs while Snider develops. I'd probably rather it be Giambi, practically it should be Bradley because Lind seems like he could go either way at this point. Bradley will probably come at a discount given the number of potential DHs available. Either that or a trade with KC.
   2. Peter Rosegger Posted: November 20, 2008 at 10:23 AM (#3012945)
I can't see them punting on 2009, mostly because I can't see how JP would still be around for 2010 if they did. Love that moral hazard.
   3. a wider scope of derision Posted: November 20, 2008 at 12:02 PM (#3013030)
If they're giving up on the season already, it makes no sense to keep JP around. He's turned into a complete PR liability. (Does he have any supporters in the media anymore? Even Wilner seems to be hedging his bets.) Get somebody in there who's not emotionally invested in these mistakes. Start figuring out what needs to be done to be competitive in '10 onwards.
   4. dze27 Posted: November 20, 2008 at 01:54 PM (#3013141)
It is not that Ricciardi is incompetent; after all, he assembled the best pitching staff seen in the sport in two decades...


Whoa, what?
   5. Ryan Jones Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:05 PM (#3013152)
Whoa, what?


Well, the Jays did throw together a team ERA+ of 122. It wouldn't surprise me if that was near the top for the last two decades. That being said, half of that staff is now injured or gone, or viewed as flukes.
   6. SoSH U at work Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:05 PM (#3013153)
Whoa, what?


Seriously, either there's a word or two missing there or it's a subtle joke that I'm missing.
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:12 PM (#3013162)
Well, the Jays did throw together a team ERA+ of 122. It wouldn't surprise me if that was near the top for the last two decades. That being said, half of that staff is now injured or gone, or viewed as flukes.


It's not. It's right around where the league leader tends to fall each year. And it's well short of the numbers the Atlanta staffs posted fairly consistently in the 1990s.
   8. Ryan Jones Posted: November 20, 2008 at 02:14 PM (#3013165)
It's not. It's right around where the league leader tends to fall each year. And it's well short of the numbers the Atlanta staffs posted fairly consistently in the 1990s.


In that case, I have no idea where the claim came from.
   9. Cold Prosimian Posted: November 20, 2008 at 04:10 PM (#3013292)
I was rather shocked at that statement, so I started going back through team pitching stats on B-R. I didn't have to go too far - Boston's ERA+ was 123 in 2007. The were far and away the best staff in the majors but only for 2008.
   10. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 20, 2008 at 04:13 PM (#3013294)
I don't know, JP says the team is not going to get involved in free agency, and the very first free agent pitcher to sign tells the world the Jays were one of the teams kicking the tires on him.

Dempster is Canadian, they are legally obligated to make a token effort to sign him.
   11. Cold Prosimian Posted: November 20, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#3013300)
The best of the Braves' run was 1998 (ERA+ 131) Check out this rotation:


SP John Smoltz 30 35 3.02 15-12 0 35 0 7 2 256.0 234 97 86 21 63 241 138
SP *Denny Neagle 28 34 2.97 20-5 0 34 0 4 4 233.3 204 87 77 18 49 172 140
SP *Tom Glavine 31 33 2.96 14-7 0 33 0 5 2 240.0 197 86 79 20 79 152 141
SP Greg Maddux 31 33 2.20 19-4 0 33 0 5 2 232.7 200 58 57 9 20 177 189

Last column is ERA+
I don't think we'll ever see a team with four starters each having over 230 innings again, let alone doing it with a minimum ERA+ of 138.
   12. dze27 Posted: November 20, 2008 at 04:27 PM (#3013309)
'97 Braves had a team ERA+ of 131 - highest I've found with some scattered searching.
   13. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: November 20, 2008 at 04:52 PM (#3013327)
It was a comment more on the combined efforts of the rotation and bullpen relative to the AL (no idea why I said all of baseball...blame the meds...I might have gone with ERA instead of ERA+ for God only knows why)--I went back over the numbers and found a couple of goofs. My bad--been a rough few weeks but I still deserve to have my knuckles rapped for not being more thorough.

Sorry folks--shoddy work on my part.

Best Regards

John
   14. Pete Toms Posted: November 20, 2008 at 05:47 PM (#3013399)
misc Jays comments.

Last I looked the loonie was worth less than $US 0.80, obviously not good if you're a Jays fan.

If the Jays aren't going to make an effort to compete this season they should deal Halladay.

Rogers is a shitty owner if you're a fan. The only reason they own the club is the cheap programming it provides their RSN.

I don't understand why Beeston returned. Is he really only there until he finds his successor? If yes, why has he been so high profile? Why would he be interested in sticking around if Rogers continues to fund only a middling payroll?
   15. Ryan Jones Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:03 PM (#3013417)
Last I looked the loonie was worth less than $US 0.80, obviously not good if you're a Jays fan.


It's been floating between $0.75 and $0.85, which is manageable for the Jays.

If the Jays aren't going to make an effort to compete this season they should deal Halladay.


Doing so would do more damage to the team than a weak dollar. Halladay is still the center of team marketing, and the most popular player. Trading him would be admitting giving up, and would result in a massive attendance drop after the progressive increases from 2002 to 2008. Besides, it would be almost impossible for the Jays to get back enough to justify the loss of Halladay in prospects.
   16. a wider scope of derision Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#3013446)
Besides, it would be almost impossible for the Jays to get back enough to justify the loss of Halladay in prospects.


Does Halladay have some super-powers we don't yet know about?

It would break my heart to see him dealt, but I'm sure someone has the talent that could make it worthwhile if already 2009 is to be a lost year.
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