If Mussina wins 20 games this year, he's also got an excellent chance of getting to 300 career wins, assuming he want to play a couple more years. His HoF chances would go from borderline to probable, IMHO. I wonder if he'll try to squeeze out a 3-year contract this off-season or will be content to go 1 or 2 years at a time at this stage of his career.

He has been awesome watch. First pitch strikes to every batter, pitching backwards, blowing 87 mph heat past Major League hitters up in the zone. I am constantly blown away by how smart he pitches.

It took him way too long to face up to the fact that he's not a power pitcher any more, but better late than never. And without him this year, the Yankees would be toast.

he reminds me of El Duque when he was around 40. Crafty, unpredictable and great movement.

I have always loved Moose, but this season has been unbelievable. Just a wonderful season.

this only raises the questions: what to do with Moose for next year? 2-year deal? 1-year with an option on the 2nd (the Andy Pettitte Special)?

Mussina had said he was going to retire after this year. I'd imagine his success this year will probably cause him to rethink that. I suspect he'll be able to reach a 1 or 2 year deal with the Yankees pretty easily. His last negotiation with them went pretty smoothly. He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who really wants to go to free agency looking for the highest bidder.

Yanks should pay him whatever he wants.

a 2 year deal would mean he has been a Yankee as long as he has been an Oriole.

If understand my projection basics (which I probably don't), the strength in his peripherals (3rd best K/BB ratio in AL) should mean he'll project pretty well going forward. SG had him projected at a 3.84 ERA for next year before last nights start. I'd give him two and tether him to Ian Kennedy.

I love Moose and if it comes down to choosing between him and Pettitte for the veteran rotation spot, I hope the Yankees choose him. If he's with the team for 2 more years and gets to 300 as a Yankee he will (hopefully) go into the Hall as a Yankee, which would be awesome.

he reminds me of El Duque when he was around 40. Crafty, unpredictable and great movement.

Definitely... the "new" Moose will throw any pitch in any count, and to any location. This year I've seen him freeze plenty of good hitters on breaking pitches up the zone because they were clearly utterly unprepared to see such a pitch. It often looks like hittable slop, but hitters (other than Manny) just can't seem to get comfortable against it. Fun to watch.

He's got quite the selective endpoints going there - Red Ruffing (3.80) is the only pitcher with 270 wins that has a higher ERA than Mussina. I don't know he even included ERA in the discussion. The Moose certainly has a better HOF case than Ruffing did though.

This definitely makes the Yankees the favorites to win it all this year.

I'm amused when sportswriters - and it's usually sportswriters - try to argue that Mussina has never been one of the best pitchers in the league throughout his career.

He'e been top 10 in ERA and WHIP for 11 years, and his strikeout to walk ratio has been among the best in history.

He's won 19 games twice and 18 games twice. If he won those 6 extra games to give him 4 20-win seasons, I question whether sportswriters would even debate his candidacy. That's the kind of logic sportswriters use.

Any chance Mussina chooses to leave the Yankees after this season?

I'm really free with Tom Hicks' money, ya see...

He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who really wants to go to free agency looking for the highest bidder.

Oh, I don't know if that's a valid observation.

From BBRef:
November 30, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

Any chance Mussina chooses to leave the Yankees after this season?

Last time, he limited his choices to teams within a short distance of his Penn. home. I don't imagine that's changed.
He'll probably go year-to-year with the Yankees.

I wouldn't mind having him and Andy back. I think CC will get too many years to be attractive.

Oh, I don't know if that's a valid observation.

From BBRef:
November 30, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

Didn't Mussina leave the Orioles on very poor terms, specifically as it relates to something about how Angelos handled his contract?

I wouldn't mind having him and Andy back. I think CC will get too many years to be attractive.

I have zero interest in having Pettitte back and I think the upfront stability CC will give the Yanks will be well worth over paying him or him getting hurt down the line. Assuming the Brewers don't ride him into the ground.

The Moose certainly has a better HOF case than Ruffing did though.

Does he? Ruffing had a higher ERA but:

- He pitched in the highest run scoring era of the 20th century.

- He lost several years to WWII. He did pitched great when he first came back until a line drive shattered off his leg breaking his knee cap (!!). He looks like one of those occassional super-workhorses. Think of him as the David Wells of the first half of the century, only much better. Durable fat guy who could be relied on for an extremely long time.

- He has about as much value from hitting as anyone in the liveball era. Wes Ferrell was a better hitter, and George Uhle, too. There might be one other. But they had considerably shorter careers than Ruffing.

I have zero interest in having Pettitte back and I think the upfront stability CC will give the Yanks will be well worth over paying him or him getting hurt down the line. Assuming the Brewers don't ride him into the ground.

Is there any doubt the Yanks will sign CC? I'm already assumuing it. Texiera, too.

It took him way too long to face up to the fact that he's not a power pitcher any more, but better late than never. And without him this year, the Yankees would be toast.

I don't think this is fair to him. I really don't think he was clinging to some notion of himself as a power pitcher. I think, instead, it's been a combination of refining himself and rebounding from an off year. He was pretty damned good in 2006, some may remember. Last year sucked, but he may have been battling minor injuries as much as anything.

Regardless, he's one of my favorites, and I'm glad to see him doing well. I agree that I'd really prefer CC over Pettitte.

He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who really wants to go to free agency looking for the highest bidder.

That's hilarious.

Didn't Mussina leave the Orioles on very poor terms, specifically as it relates to something about how Angelos handled his contract?

I googled an old NY paper (forget, Sun, maybe?) that was reporting that MM was leaning towards the Yanks, and the Orioles had a 6/$78 offer on the table. Mussina wanted $15 per.

I find it interesting that the guys who claim to have other criteria besides money end up accepting the biggest offer. Reggie White was a prime offender, saying God told him to accept the Packer offer, which just "happened" to be the biggest. Now I'd expect Nieporent's God to advise him as such... EDIT: But to be fair, DMN would declare that he took the highest offer.

ESPN.com reported this:

Wednesday, November 29
Updated: December 1, 3:00 PM ET

Mussina agrees to $88.5 million deal with Yankees

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ESPN.com news services

NEW YORK -- After beating the rest of baseball on the field, the New York Yankees beat everyone to Mike Mussina.
"It just came down to who really seemed to want me on their team the most," Mussina said Thursday after agreeing to an $88.5 million, six-year contract.

The most amazing thing to me in the article is that they quoted Orioles reliever Chuck McElroy. Who'd a thunk McElroy was still pitching in 2000?

- He lost several years to WWII. He did pitched great when he first came back until a line drive shattered off his leg breaking his knee cap (!!). He looks like one of those occassional super-workhorses.

Ruffing did lose several years (1942-44, it appears) to WWII, but was also 37 and clearly no longer the workhorse he once was. Obviously pitching in those years would've improved his raw totals, but I think a case could also be made that his war service made his brilliant pitching when he returned was aided by three years of rest for his arm.

No matter how good he is, or how lauded he is by the press at the tail end of his career, to me he'll always be the whiny little ##### warming up in the bullpen on July 13th, 1993.

Last year sucked, but he may have been battling minor injuries as much as anything.

He's said that Eiland helped him a lot in the beginning of the year by convincing him to pitch inside and up too, instead of just the outside like he did last year. I doubt Guidry did anything to help him last year.

No matter how good he is, or how lauded he is by the press at the tail end of his career, to me he'll always be the whiny little ##### warming up in the bullpen on July 13th, 1993.

There are 2 sides to that story, aren't there?

I googled an old NY paper (forget, Sun, maybe?) that was reporting that MM was leaning towards the Yanks, and the Orioles had a 6/$78 offer on the table. Mussina wanted $15 per.

I don't think it was that off-season when the #### hit the fan with the O's, it was actually the spring before, when Mussina wanted an extension and the Orioles, and the consensus around baseball was that he was being lowballed on the theory that he wouldn't really leave. From Ken Rosenthal, for example:

The Orioles had no excuse for losing Mussina--they probably could have signed him to a five-year, $55 million extension in 1999, when former G.M. Frank Wren discussed the parameters of a deal with the pitcher's agent, Am Tellem.

But Angelos, one of the nation's leading labor attorneys, protracts most of his baseball negotiations, playing hardball with employees who can pursue better options.

Rafael Palmeiro, Angelos' greatest free-agent triumph, bolted after the owner refused even to discuss an extension. The Mussina negotiations followed a similar pattern, the only difference being that Angelos made several below-market offers.

Mussina had agreed to such a deal in his previous contract, incurring the wrath of the players' union. He wasn't going to undersell himself again to a team with such dim prospects. He wasn't going to lower the bar for his fellow union members once more.

He's said that Eiland helped him a lot in the beginning of the year by convincing him to pitch inside and up too, instead of just the outside like he did last year. I doubt Guidry did anything to help him last year.

Yeah, it's funny what happens when your Pitching Coach is an actual pitching coach...

There are 2 sides to that story, aren't there?

Of course there are, but he's not interested in the other side because he's already made up his mind.

Agreed, RB. IIRC as well, many thought he'd never go to NY, regardless of the $$$, and he had to be called by Torre and Jeter (and perhaps others?) who convinced him that life in NY can be pretty good.

As I've indicated, I'm biased in favor of the guy, so maybe that was all just BS and he wanted the $$$ all along.

Reggie White was a prime offender, saying God told him to accept the Packer offer, which just "happened" to be the biggest.

what's wrong with that? I mean, God's a capitalist, isn't he (she)?

Ruffing did lose several years (1942-44, it appears) to WWII, but was also 37 and clearly no longer the workhorse he once was. Obviously pitching in those years would've improved his raw totals, but I think a case could also be made that his war service made his brilliant pitching when he returned was aided by three years of rest for his arm.

Eh, sounds off to me. He was a good pitcher at age 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, and 37. He was good at age 40 and fantastic at age 41. Yeah, he dropped off a bit from ages 35-37 and his ERA+ may not have been as strong as it was at age 40-41 if not for the war - but what exactly are we talking about here?

Instead of a 120 ERA+ in 1945 he might have had a 110 or 105? He was so exceptionally durable I don't see him having his arm fall off due to normal workload. I can see him becoming an average pitcher or barely average (he was getting there) but levelling off afterwards. And what was that trade off again? He lost three full frickin' years. If there's no war, he wins 320 games.

There are 2 sides to that story, aren't there?

Until reading #25, I didn't realize there was another side.

This was an All-Star game at Camden Yards, and every pitcher on the AL roster pitched in the game except for Mussina.

Gaston claims he was saving Mussina for extra innings, even though the AL was winning 9-3.

Mussina didn't help matters by warming up on his own. Orioles fans wrongly interpreted that as Cito rubbing the snub in their faces. But Cito was the true villian in my eyes for snubbing Mussina in the first place.

Is there any doubt the Yanks will sign CC? I'm already assumuing it. Texiera, too.

I think there's a lot of doubt. The Yankees show no desire to push the payroll much above $200M, and Cashman (I'm assuming he stays, has shown himself to be very conservative on free agents).

MLB is awash with $$$$. CC is said to prefer the West Coast. I could see CC and Tex both in the 7-8 years, $150-200M range. I think that's way too much.

If I had to lay odds, I'd say 70% the Yankees sign neither. 25% they sign one. 5% they sign both.

I think the way forward in MLB has to be home grown stars supplemented by older FA on short year deals. Going real long term with prime age FAs just buys way too many decline years.

I wouldn't be suprised to see Giambi, Mosse and Pettitte all back in NY on 1-2 year deals.

Remember, the Yankees don't need to be great the next 2-3 years. The New Stadium will ooze money regardless. The Young Steins may be looking to divert some big time cash from the team while they let Cashman pursue the home grown approach. If it isn't working in two years, they can can him then and go back to splurging.

Mussina didn't help matters by warming up on his own. Orioles fans wrongly interpreted that as Cito rubbing the snub in their faces. But Cito was the true villian in my eyes for snubbing Mussina in the first place.

Again, I'm a fan of Mussina, and I agree. 'twas the ASG in his home park, how could he not be disappointed that the manager of his rivals refused to play him? (Recall, btw, that Toronto was the team to beat at that time, and the Os were competitive.)

My point about not expecting Mussina to play hardball in negotiations had a lot more to do with how he handled his last NY contract. We was willing to sign a fairly club friendly offer without testing the market even after the Yankees declined his option.

I think he was comfortable in NY at the time and didn't really want to go to another team. The same probably holds true now. When he left Baltimore, he was definitely fed up with Angelos.

Remember, the Yankees don't need to be great the next 2-3 years. The New Stadium will ooze money regardless. The Young Steins may be looking to divert some big time cash from the team while they let Cashman pursue the home grown approach. If it isn't working in two years, they can can him then and go back to splurging.

Not sure I agree with this... the window for players like Jeter, Posada, Rivera and even A-Rod is closing, and the Yankees really have no top notch position player talent coming up through the minors to replace any of those guys. By 2012, I'd be surprised if any of those 4 other than A-Rod was still an above average player.

Granted a lot can change in 3-4 years, guys can develop in surprising ways and come out of nowhere to stardom, but if I'm the Yankees, I'm competing HARD over the next few years to take advantage of whatever that aging core still has in the tank.

Not sure I agree with this... the window for players like Jeter, Posada, Rivera and even A-Rod is closing, and the Yankees really have no top notch position player talent coming up through the minors to replace any of those guys. By 2012, I'd be surprised if any of those 4 other than A-Rod was still an above average player.

Granted a lot can change in 3-4 years, guys can develop in surprising ways and come out of nowhere to stardom, but if I'm the Yankees, I'm competing HARD over the next few years to take advantage of whatever that aging core still has in the tank.

Well, I agree partially. I think they will still compete very hard, i.e. $200M-ish payroll.

What I don't see is record breaking 7+ year FA contracts. I think they will pour a lot of money into Latin American signings and the draft to have replacement ready for 2011-12.

But, I think they are more likely to patch around the aging core than try to bring in new core players.

My guess for FAs this year is one OF/1B/DH, maybe Burrell or Dunn.

I think the rotation will be Joba/Wang/Pettitte/Mussina/Hughes/Kennedy. Only if Joba is seriously hurt do I see them going absolutely nuts for CC. I think they will be very concerned with his workload, especiall now that Mil. is riding him like a rented mule.

Yankees show no desire to push the payroll much above $200M, and Cashman (I'm assuming he stays, has shown himself to be very conservative on free agents).

I've not played this game in a while, so let's see:

Yankee 2009 Payroll
Alex Rodriguez: $32 Million (Is that the highest full-season single-year salary ever?)
Derek Jeter: $20 Million
Mariano Rivera: $15 Million
Jorge Posada: $13.1 Million
Johnny Damon: $13 Million
Hideki Matsui: $13 Million
Robinson Cano: $6 Million
Jose Molina: $2 Million
Hughes, Kennedy, Joba, Gardner, Britton, Edwar, etc.: Generously, $8 million between them

So that's $132.1 million. Then you have the Arbit Eligible Guys:

Wang: Made $4 Million in '08
Nady: Made $3.35 Million in '08
Betemit: Made $1.165 Million in '08
Bruney: Made $0.725 Million in '08
Melky: Made $0.4612 Million in '08

Melky, Bruney and Betemit won't be seeing huge raises, I have no idea about Wang and Nady will get some real cash, I imagine. So let's call that...$15 million on the high end. That brings the Yankee payroll to $147.1 million with the following lay-out:

C: Posada
Back-Up Catcher:
1B:
2B: Cano
SS: Jeter
3B: Rodriguez
LF: Damon/Free Agent
CF: Melky/Gardner/Damon
RF: Nady (or, less likely, Abreu)
Back-up OF: Melky/Gardner/???
DH: Matsui

SP1: Wang
SP2: Chamberlain
SP3: Hughes
SP4: Kennedy
SP5:

CL: Rivera
RP: Bruney
RP: Edward Ramirez
RP: Robertson
RP: Britton
RP:

So the Yankees need--at the least--a SP, a 1B and a back-up catcher. Plus a relief arm or two, probably. Even so, they have a ton of money to play around, setting a $200 million ceiling puts it at $52.9 million, with more cash of varying usefulness (Damon and Matsui) coming off the year after.

I don't think it was that off-season when the #### hit the fan with the O's, it was actually the spring before, when Mussina wanted an extension and the Orioles, and the consensus around baseball was that he was being lowballed on the theory that he wouldn't really leave.

On the theory that he wouldn't leave BAL for a big city markek. There were rumblings in the press about how Mussina hated NY and never left his hotel for road games there. I believe Cleveland was actually the favored team to land Mussina at the time. Angelos believed that Musssina wasn't serious about leaving BAL, especially for NY. Mussina called his bluff.

So the Yankees need--at the least--a SP, a 1B and a back-up catcher. Plus a relief arm or two, probably.

I don't know about the relief part - you left off Veras and Marte (who, IIRC, is signed through next year).

I don't know about the relief part - you left off Veras and Marte (who, IIRC, is signed through next year).

Melancon might be ready by next year also.

I don't know about the relief part - you left off Veras and Marte (who, IIRC, is signed through next year).

Just once I'd like to do one of those and not something wrong. Never going to happen though. Anyway, Marte has a $6 million option, I don't know if they'll exercise it or not, but I left him off same as I did with anyone with an option.

So the Yankees need--at the least--a SP, a 1B and a back-up catcher. Plus a relief arm or two, probably. Even so, they have a ton of money to play around, setting a $200 million ceiling puts it at $52.9 million, with more cash of varying usefulness (Damon and Matsui) coming off the year after.

I think they'll definitely get 2 SP. 6 established SP is essential given the injury issues/age/youth.
My guess: Pettitte 16/1 or 30/2 and Moose 15/1.
Marte will probably be back, either on his $6M option or something like a 15/3 deal.
Giambi gets $5M no matter what. I wouldn't be surprised by a 15/1 or 30/2 deal for him.

That's $50M right there.

I don't think Teixeira is good enough to be worth the $22-25M he's probably getting. I think CC's workload/condition issues make his deal a bad risk too.

Doesn't CC want to stay in the NL?

So the Yankees need--at the least--a SP, a 1B and a back-up catcher.

There is a good chance they will need a starting catcher and have Jorge DH and play first. His shoulder might never be able to take the strain of catching.

I have a feeling that Angelos is going to swoop in and overpay Teixeira to come to Baltimore, and that with those extra $$$/years Teixeira will swallow any reservations he might have about playing for the O's in the AL East due to the ability to play in his hometown.

I have a feeling that Angelos is going to swoop in and overpay Teixeira to come to Baltimore, and that with that extra $$$ Teixeira will swallow any reservations he might have the O's due to the ability to play in his hometown. Besides, the franchise - as reluctant as I am to acknowledge this - seems to finally be on the right footing.

That's very possible.

If Teixeira breaks the 5/100 barrier (which I think he'll do easily) I don't think he's worth the $$$.

He's nowhere near the hitter Giambi was when the Yankees signed him. In fact, he's probably no better than Giambi as a hitter right now.

I have a feeling that Angelos is going to swoop in and overpay Teixeira to come to Baltimore, and that with that extra $$$ Teixeira will swallow any reservations he might have the O's due to the ability to play in his hometown

doesn't Angelos still treat Boras as persona non grata? I have a hard time seeing the Os getting a deal like that done.

And if you remember, Moose was one of the first to sign that winter, Mike Hampton followed, and look what Mike Hampton got. (Dreifort and Neagle also signed that winter)

Mussina's previous contract featured a good-sized hometown discount. So when it came time for the Orioles to start negotiating with Mussina on a new contract, they actually included Angelos's proposed larger hometown discount for Moose into the team's offer. After that, I'd have a hard time not taking the money, too. The Orioles could have kept Mussina if they had been willing to engage in a fair negotiation. Instead, the Orioles made their ridiculous offer, whined about Mussina taking a much, much better offer, and then crowed about how the money spent on Mussina was put to better use on Hentgen, Bordick, and Segui.

Remember. Dan is an Orioles fan. He harbors no ill will toward the Moose, neither should you.

So the Yankees need--at the least--a SP, a 1B and a back-up catcher.

molina is signed through 2009.

they won't spend a dime on an outside reliever, they've got plenty of options in the minors for next year. coke from the left side, melancon, cox, sanchez from the right. plus they'll most likely exercise the option on marte (although, *that* might depend on what they think about coke, i assume he's going to get a sept callup this year, if his slider proves nasty enough, they may let marte walk and pocket the picks)

SP? i assume they'll resign moose and i can't see them punting pettite if he finishes the year healthy and wants to return for 2009

I used to be something of an O's fan back in the day, and I still remember the Moose contract negotiations pretty well. Not only did Angelos lowball him the year before his contract was up when Mussina was willing to sign an extension, I also recall there being a surprising lack of hard feelings among O's fans about his going to the Yankees. Near as I can remember, the general fan sentiment was that Mussina had tried to do right by the franchise and the fans by seeking a reasonable extension well in advance, but that Angelos had disrepected him repeatedly in contract negotiations. My memory could well be selective (and I'm sure you can go find people back then who were pissed), but I recall the attitude around DC/Baltimore being something along the lines of "good luck to ya Moose, you deserved better."

I don't know. I'd bet a six pack of Coke the Yanks go hard after CC and Tex. They have a need, they have the money, and, if they don't make the playoffs, they'll have the hunger. They'll also have a lot of shiny, new coinage coming out the slots of the new Yankee Stadium with nothing else out there worth spending it on that suits their needs so well.

I don't understand why Yankees fans would want to pass up on Sabathia or Teixeira. Both are still pretty young, fill huge needs on our team, and could very well be the best at their positions to be available on the free agent market for a while.

I know we'll have to overpay, but who cares? The Yankees had an opening day payroll of $209M this year, and will be moving into a much more profitable stadium. Right now with scheduled and expected raises and buyouts and exercising Marte's option I have their 2009 payroll at just over $152M. They can certainly sign Tex, CC, and probably one of Moose or Pettitte without even spending more.

They have the chance to add one of the best pitchers in baseball and one of the best all around 1B as well. I sure as hell would much rather do that than give Moose, Giambi or Pettitte anything approaching $15M for the next year or two.

If the Yankees really wanted to get younger and cut payroll, they should have started last year instead of dishing out $30M a year for one player until he's in his 40's...or $15M a year for a reliever...or $13M a year for a catcher in his late 30's.

They have a need, they have the money, and, if they don't make the playoffs, they'll have the hunger.

I disagree about the hunger. I don't think the new bosses care nearly as much about being in the playoffs every year as the old boss. I think Cashman couldn't care less if he misses the playoffs one year.

I think the goal is to build a WS winner on a $175-185M payroll. Signing BOTH CC and Tex would make it impossible ever to get the payroll under $200M. Signing one makes it tough.

If the Yankees really wanted to get younger and cut payroll, they should have started last year instead of dishing out $30M a year for one player until he's in his 40's...or $15M a year for a reliever...or $13M a year for a catcher in his late 30's.

Posada's contract now looks pretty unfortunate, but given Mariano's continued excellence and iconic status, I'm not inclined to criticize that one. To put it another way: I have a feeling that a far less deserving free agent with significantly worse (and declining) peripherals is about to become the Barry Zito of closers next year. Yes, closers are chronically overpaid and perhaps the most overrated "position" in baseball, but then again there's something to be said for Rivera's obscene year-in, year-out consistency under the glare of the largest media spotlight on the planet.

Near as I can remember, the general sense was that Mussina had tried to right by the franchise and the fans by seeking a reasonable extension the year before, and Angelos had disrepected him repeatedly in the contract negotiations. My memory could well be selective (and I'm sure you can go find people back then who were pissed), but I remember that our attitude was something along the lines of "good luck Moose, you deserved better."

That's how I remember the general feelings as well. Checking the Orioles NG, that seems accurate (people just on BTF that were there saying the Orioles screwed up badly were me, DMN, GotoWarMissAgnes, and Ron Johnson).

"So the Yankees need--at the least--a SP, a 1B and a back-up catcher."

That's why the Posada injury is so problematic. Tex is a no-brainer signing if Posada is healthy. But he's not and now they are forced to put Jorge at first base because every team will be frothing at the mouth to run against him. RULE NO 1. As always, don't sign players over 35-years old to deals with 4 or more years, no matter how good their previous year's performance.

It turned out to be a wise move to sign Molina to a 2-year deal.

Whether they need a starting pitcher depends on Joba's health and the effectiveness of Hughes and Kennedy. Instead of doling out $100 plus million for C.C., they could make a run at Derek Lowe for a lot less years and bucks.

I don't see Giambi resigned under any circumstance.

What they don't need is bullpen help. Melancon was ready for the majors yesterday and is a beast.

Melancon might be ready by next year also.

melancon's ready now ... if it wasn't his 1st year back after TJ, he'd likely already be up. As it is, he's pitched so well they're probably going to have to call him up, just to give him a challenge (as of only a month or so ago, mark newman was stating they planned to have him spend the year in Trenton). he's blowing past his innings goal for the year, but that's because they're having to pitch him multiple innings to get his pitch count goals in.

Posada's contract now looks pretty unfortunate, but given Mariano's continued excellence and iconic status, I'm not inclined to criticize it. To put it another way: I have a feeling a far less deserving closer with significantly worse (and declining) peripherals is about to haul in a much worse contract next year.

I'm not criticizing it, it would have made me sick to see him in another uniform. It's just a deal you don't make if you're looking to significantly cut payroll in the near future.

Snapper is confusing what he thinks will happen and what he wants to happen. He's clearly of the deranged breed of fan who thinks that want to win while getting good value for their money. I guarantee that the Yankees will never have a payroll in the 175-185 range. The notion is ludicrous.

That's how I remember the general feelings as well. Checking the Orioles NG, that seems accurate (people just on BTF that were there saying the Orioles screwed up badly were me, DMN, GotoWarMissAgnes, and Ron Johnson).

Don't suppose you have a link to that, Szym? I'd love to take a trip down memory lane.

They have the chance to add one of the best pitchers in baseball and one of the best all around 1B as well. I sure as hell would much rather do that than give Moose, Giambi or Pettitte anything approaching $15M for the next year or two.

I'd rather keep the old guys, and I'm as big a Yankee fan as their is.

Teixeira's just not an elite hitter to be giving 7 years at $20+M. He's a 140 OPS+ guy at his best. That's what Giambi's putting up this year. It's a lot of $ and years to get a 1-1.5 win improvement from defense.

CC got's a lot of mileage, and is likely to be abused by Milwaukee down the stretch. People have already been questioning if Santana is in decline. I don't want any part of a huge 7 year pitching contract.

If the Yankees really wanted to get younger and cut payroll, they should have started last year instead of dishing out $30M a year for one player until he's in his 40's...or $15M a year for a reliever...or $13M a year for a catcher in his late 30's.

Sure, but those decisions were based much more on PR and marketing than on baseball. There really wasn't a snowball's chance in hell that they were going to close the old stadium and open the new one without Posada and Rivera on the team.

Anyway, back to Mussina -- he's also likely to finish this season with around 2,800 strikeouts. There's only one eligible pitcher with 3,000 who isn't in the HOF. And the 1994 strike/lockout/whatever probably cost Moose back to back 20-win seasons. He might already be considered a lock for the hall with that on his resume.

on the subject of CC and Tex, I think I'd prefer going after Tex as I think that the offense is going to need more help than the pitching over the next couple of years.

In either case, what i'd like the yankees to do is offer a maximum 5 year contract, but be willing to pay somewhat above rate so that the selling point becomes that the player in question has another shot a free agency while still relatively young and in a MLB environment 5 years hence, that probably has seen salary inflation.

If you are going to overpay someone. Overpay the guys who brought you to the mountaintop.

I guarantee that the Yankees will never have a payroll in the 175-185 range. The notion is ludicrous.

Boy, if I were Hank or Hal, I'd certainly be saying "why is Boston beating us with a payroll $50M less".

I think George's kids are likely to care a lot more about free cash flow and a lot less about winning than he did. They have to build a huge cash pile to pay estate taxes when he goes.

You do notice that the payroll really hasn't gone up recently?

asb.Orioles Mussina thread 1

asb.Orioles Mussina thread 2

asb.Orioles Mussina thread 3

molina is signed through 2009.

I like how I managed to include him on the salary list and leave him off the roster. That was a neat trick.

He's won 19 games twice and 18 games twice. If he won those 6 extra games to give him 4 20-win seasons, I question whether sportswriters would even debate his candidacy. That's the kind of logic sportswriters use.

Here's the kind of logic non-sportswriters use:

One year he won 19 games with an ERA+ of 103. He had a 14-win season with an ERA+ of 100. 18 with a 109. 13 with a 96. He hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season in 5 years (though he's probably going to make it this year) and he's averaged 13 wins with an ERA of 4.18 during that span. There's a perception that he's some kind of hard-luck case when the opposite may be true. (Or at least it's a wash - yes, he's also had some years in which he's pitched better than his record.) He's had the benefit of some tremendous offenses behind him throughout his career. I would say those scant 6 wins to give him four 20-win seasons are more than made up for by the many other wins his teams gave him.

If you are going to overpay someone. Overpay the guys who brought you to the mountaintop.

I'd rather overpay the guys that are more likely to take you there again.

Teixeira's just not an elite hitter to be giving 7 years at $20+M. He's a 140 OPS+ guy at his best. That's what Giambi's putting up this year. It's a lot of $ and years to get a 1-1.5 win improvement from defense.

So who's our 1B after next year? Do you really think Giambi will be this good again next year, too? I usually wouldn't want to give out a huge longterm deal to a 1B, but with Tex's defense and athleticism I think he'll age quite well. FWIW, I think it'll be a much smarter deal than Giambi's was when they first signed him.

CC got's a lot of mileage, and is likely to be abused by Milwaukee down the stretch. People have already been questioning if Santana is in decline. I don't want any part of a huge 7 year pitching contract.

His stuff has not dropped off at all unlike Santana's. While he's fat, he's also pretty athletic, and I believe fat pitchers actually tend to last longer than most others. I don't think his workload is a concern at his age either but maybe that's just me. I don't see giving him 7-8 years any worse than when they did the same with Moose.

You do notice that the payroll really hasn't gone up recently?

Obviously this depends on you who think was running what and when they were doing it, but in the last (EDIT: couple of) year(s) the Yankees have authorized considerable mid-season payroll expansions, including Nady, Pudge and Marte this season, and Clemens last. I haven't seen any reason to think the H&H;Boys will be making a major change to the payroll up or down in the near future.

Szym -

First link you gave me, first post:

Given his durability and continued maturity Ponson may be a better pitcher over the next few years if he can get some decent run support. Although he may be another year away from being a top tier pitcher.

Pure comedy gold. It was a different era.

First link you gave me, first post:

There was also another guy who didn't seem to behave badly in that thread. His schtick was was that Mussina was a gutless baby because he never won 20 games. As you might guess, the stathead gang wasn't too kind to him.

"If you are going to overpay someone. Overpay the guys who brought you to the mountaintop."

Eh, I don't think you should overpay anyone. Especially not a catcher who's over 35 to a four year deal. That's asking for trouble and that's exactly what they've got.

So who's our 1B after next year? Do you really think Giambi will be this good again next year, too? I usually wouldn't want to give out a huge longterm deal to a 1B, but with Tex's defense and athleticism I think he'll age quite well. FWIW, I think it'll be a much smarter deal than Giambi's was when they first signed him.

I think it could be Giambi on a one-year deal. It could be someone like Dunn or Burrell. It could be Posada if his shoulder doesn't recover.

Giambi was a MUCH, MUCH better hitter when they signed him, coming off 153, 187, 198 OPS+ seasons. Tex has only put up 1 year of a 150 OPS+ and is probably more of a 140 guy.


I don't see giving him 7-8 years any worse than when they did the same with Moose.

They only gave Moose 6 years.

I haven't seen any reason to think the H&H;Boys will be making a major change to the payroll up or down in the near future.

If that's true, and it very well maybe, then they're certainly not signing BOTH CC and Tex. If you sign both you're heading for $250M.

They might sign one and stick to the current payroll, but I think the bidding will be crazy and the contracts terrible for the "winning" team.

Szym -

Sorry to keep posting excerpts from a discussion that took place 8 years ago but this...

[Mussina]'s still likely to be better than any player in the Orioles organization in 6 years.

...from you is pretty prophetic. Make that 8 years, with the only remotely close players being Bedard and Roberts.

So who's our 1B after next year? Do you really think Giambi will be this good again next year, too? I usually wouldn't want to give out a huge longterm deal to a 1B, but with Tex's defense and athleticism I think he'll age quite well. FWIW, I think it'll be a much smarter deal than Giambi's was when they first signed him.

Tex is exactly the wrong kind of free agent to break the bank on. A good, but not great, player who'll spend the bulk of the deal in his 30s. Long term, high dollar deals should be for special talents, careers that scream HOF. Giambi was a couple of years older than Tex, but he was also coming off a stratospheric peak, 3 consecutive years as a better hitter than Tex has ever been in his entire career.

If the Yankees can get Tex for 5 years or less (fat chance), than I'd say go for it. But I just don't see that happening.

I also recall there being a surprising lack of hard feelings among O's fans about his going to the Yankees. Near as I can remember, the general fan sentiment was that Mussina had tried to do right by the franchise and the fans by seeking a reasonable extension well in advance, but that Angelos had disrepected him repeatedly in contract negotiations.

I would disagree with this. I think there was, and still is, a lot of animosity towards Mussina. This article is pretty representative of my memories:

NY Times

Angelos certainly deserves to shoulder a lot of the blame, and I think most fans understood that. However, putting on pinstripes ensured that Mussina wasn't going to get the benefit of the doubt.

Leaving for more money is understandable. Leaving for more money to play for the Yankees is downright unforgivable.

I think it could be Giambi on a one-year deal. It could be someone like Dunn or Burrell. It could be Posada if his shoulder doesn't recover.

Giambi was a MUCH, MUCH better hitter when they signed him, coming off 153, 187, 198 OPS+ seasons. Tex has only put up 1 year of a 150 OPS+ and is probably more of a 140 guy.

I'd be fine with Dunn or Burrell if they come for way less years. You're right about Po being an option to, but I'm praying he's not.

Giambi was also two years older than Tex will be and with his body looked like a good bet to break down well before his contract was up. I agree that Teixeira is unlikely to ever come close to Giambi's best, but I think there's a better chance of him performing throughout his contract than there was of Giambi at the time. It will be a risk, but so was Giambi, and it's the kind of risk teams like the Yankees should take.

They only gave Moose 6 years.

I forgot his last year was a team option. Still, he was four years older than CC will be. If you're going to give a longterm contract out to a pitcher, is there anyone better right now that could possibly be available?

Tex is exactly the wrong kind of free agent to break the bank on. A good, but not great, player who'll spend the bulk of the deal in his 30s. Long term, high dollar deals should be for special talents, careers that scream HOF.

Except there aren't any talents like this available. Also, I don't see the Yankees breaking the bank for Tex. This isn't Oakland we're talking about and I don't know why everyone is assuming Tex is going to get 20 million per. I think he's recognized in baseball as a very good player, but not a franchise altering HOF guy.

"One year he won 19 games with an ERA+ of 103. He had a 14-win season with an ERA+ of 100. 18 with a 109. 13 with a 96. He hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season in 5 years (though he's probably going to make it this year) and he's averaged 13 wins with an ERA of 4.18 during that span. There's a perception that he's some kind of hard-luck case when the opposite may be true. (Or at least it's a wash - yes, he's also had some years in which he's pitched better than his record.) He's had the benefit of some tremendous offenses behind him throughout his career. I would say those scant 6 wins to give him four 20-win seasons are more than made up for by the many other wins his teams gave him."

The line of pitchers who benefit from tremendous offenses runs out the door. In 2001, Mussina was clearly the team's best pitcher but Clemens won the Cy Young because he had more wins. Mussina won 15 and had little run support that year.

Unfortunately it's sportswriters who vote on the Hall of Fame, and their muddied logic about who is worthy is all that matters - until that changes. And they like wins and nothing more than wins when it comes to pitchers.

Leaving for more money is understandable. Leaving for more money to play for the Yankees is downright unforgivable.

this is a meathead statement.

Leaving for more money is understandable. Leaving for more money to play for the Yankees is downright unforgivable.

this is a meathead statement.

Agreed.

Unless you substitute "Mets" for "Yankees." Then it's perfectly understandishable. Filthy Mets!

Boy, if I were Hank or Hal, I'd certainly be saying "why is Boston beating us with a payroll $50M less".

of course, they're actually more likely to be saying, "why is tampa beating us with a payroll that's $150M less that we're helping to pay for by spending like drunk sailors on shore leave. maybe we should stop putting money in their pockets if we don't absolutely have to!"

Leaving for more money is understandable. Leaving for more money to play for the Yankees is downright unforgivable.

Do people really expect players to make decisions about their careers and their families as if they were fans? If I'm a player, I would lose my sentimentality about my hometown team as soon as I signed a contract. I don't blame these guys for being mercenary. It's nice when they choose not to be, but there's nothing wrong with them treating MLB teams the way MLB teams treat them.

Nah. Even the Red Sox. Its not like the offers were a mil or two apart.

20 mil buys a lot of antique cars.

"why is tampa beating us with a payroll that's $150M less that we're helping to pay for by spending like drunk sailors on shore leave. maybe we should stop putting money in their pockets if we don't absolutely have to!"

The amount the Yankees spend on payroll has no effect on the amount of revenue sharing they are forced to pay.

The line of pitchers who benefit from tremendous offenses runs out the door.

Then you are saying there is value in having an ability to win games.

this is a meathead statement.

Yes.

Do people really expect players to make decisions about their careers and their families as if they were fans?

Yes.

If that's true, and it very well maybe, then they're certainly not signing BOTH CC and Tex. If you sign both you're heading for $250M.

Are you? Again, they have $52 million (more or less) to play with for next season. And another 26 million coming off the books the following season. And then Jeter's $20 comes off in 2010 and so on and so on. I think they could easily have both Tex and CC, if they wanted, without coming anywhere near $250

"why is tampa beating us with a payroll that's $150M less that we're helping to pay for by spending like drunk sailors on shore leave. maybe we should stop putting money in their pockets if we don't absolutely have to!"

Which they stop paying next year anyway on account of the new park. Hooray Baseball!

of course, they're actually more likely to be saying, "why is tampa beating us with a payroll that's $150M less that we're helping to pay for by spending like drunk sailors on shore leave. maybe we should stop putting money in their pockets if we don't absolutely have to!"

The Yankees are required to put money in the Rays' pockets because they make a ton money, not because they spend a ton of money. The Rays get something around $30M a year in revenue sharing. They have netted, in toto, the equivalent of about one MLB minimum salary from the Yankees luxury tax payments since the luxury tax was instituted.

Are you? Again, they have $52 million (more or less) to play with for next season. And another 26 million coming off the books the following season. And then Jeter's $20 comes off in 2010 and so on and so on. I think they could easily have both Tex and CC, if they wanted, without coming anywhere near $250

Well, you're $52M didn't include Marte, who's at least $5M. Add Tex and CC and you're at $200M already. You need another SP (probably either Moose or Pettitte) and that'll cost you $15M.

Damon and Matsui's replacements will likely cost as much or more, since they have to come from FAs.

Maybe they can hold at $225-230M, but I think the momentum becomes unstoppable. Just like 2001-2005, once you start overpaying on FAs as your strategy, you have to keep doing so.

They'll basically be forfeiting their #1 and #2 picks every year, and the progress in the farm will slow a lot.

The Yankees are required to put money in the Rays' pockets because they make a ton money, not because they spend a ton of money. The Rays get something around $30M a year in revenue sharing. They have netted, in toto, the equivalent of about one MLB minimum salary from the Yankees luxury tax payments since the luxury tax was instituted.

yeah, i got the two mixed up ...

They'll basically be forfeiting their #1 and #2 picks every year, and the progress in the farm will slow a lot.

They get a lot of the lost picks back by other teams signing their FA's. Also, by the time Damon and Matsui are gone, Austin Jackson will hopefully be occupying a spot in the OF.