We'll basically be forfeiting our #1 and #2 picks every year, and the progress in the farm will slow a lot.

well, maybe. a lot of the problem that the yankees had with the previous run of win-by-FA strategy is not that we lost the 1st and 2nd picks, it's that the Developmental side of the organization wasn't run in such a way as to fully leverage the financial advantage the yankees had, even in later rounds. the yankees drafts weren't poor simply because they were missing the initial picks, it's that their drafting was scattershot and lousy throughout.

i think that the yankees could still build and maintain a quality farm system with just picks from say the 3rd round on. you just sign every signability pick that you can and invest heavily in international signings.

it's not what i'd would prefer, or want to see ... but i think they could do it.

They get a lot of the lost picks back by other teams signing their FA's. Also, by the time Damon and Matsui are gone, Austin Jackson will hopefully be occupying a spot in the OF.

I think 2010 is early to expect Jackson to be a real contributor, he's in AA now and not really dominating.

If they're running a $230M payroll, he won't be allowed to learn on the job.

I think 2010 is early to expect Jackson to be a real contributor, he's in AA now and not really dominating.

He's doing pretty well, Trenton is a big time pitcher's park. I read that the Yanks think he might be ready by mid 09, but I agree that 2010 is more likely.

just sign every signability pick that you can and invest heavily in the latin draft

There are fewer and fewer signability picks with the increased revenue and revenue sharing. And even the A's are signing highly touted Latin American players to huge bonuses these days.

Damon and Matsui's replacements will likely cost as much or more, since they have to come from FAs.

I think you're taking the worst case scenario view of things here. Jackson, for example, could be replacing someone in the future, Posada could be DHing the last year of his deal if Montero proves himself ready and able to stick at C. The assumption that the Yankees will need to fill all these holes with free agents just doesn't follow.

I think you're also way overestimating what CC and Tex are going to get, they might have contracts that average out to $20 a year (or they might not) but they aren't necessarily getting that the first year of the deal.

There are fewer and fewer signability picks with the increased revenue and revenue sharing. And even the A's are signing highly touted Latin American players to huge bonuses these days.

Well, one at least!

If they're running a $230M payroll, he won't be allowed to learn on the job.

Now that is plainly untrue. Cano learned on the job with the payroll in '05 and Melky did the same in '06. That's not their first option--and it shouldn't be any team's--but they will do it.

i think that the yankees could still build and maintain a quality farm system with just picks from say the 3rd round on. you just sign every signability pick that you can and invest heavily in international signings.

I just don't think this is possible. Most of the exciting arms have been 1st round and supplemental picks. MLB has so much revenue now that it is harder and harder to stand out on $$$ alone.

I don't think you can not pick in the 1st round more than once every 3rd year and expect to have a decent farm system.

I think 2010 is early to expect Jackson to be a real contributor, he's in AA now and not really dominating.

He's doing pretty well, Trenton is a big time pitcher's park. I read that the Yanks think he might be ready by mid 09, but I agree that 2010 is more likely.

His MLE for this year is .270/.335/.415.

Now that is plainly untrue. Cano learned on the job with the payroll in '05 and Melky did the same in '06. That's not their first option--and it shouldn't be any team's--but they will do it.

If someone sucks or gets hurt, yes. But he won't be plan A. So, even if he ends up being great, it's because someone making $15M is on the DL or the bench, and the payroll is still forced upwards.

and the payroll is still forced upwards.

Why is this a problem? The Yanks will spend what they can afford to spend. Why should Yankee fans were if the ownership group is going to be able to throw some extra money on their pile at the end of the year.

There are fewer and fewer signability picks with the increased revenue and revenue sharing. And even the A's are signing highly touted Latin American players to huge bonuses these days.

I disagree. There will always be prospects who overvalue themselves. There are lots of second round talents who will only sign for first round money, and a lot of those guys get chosen in late rounds and end up going to school. You could easily base a draft entirely out of picking those guys in late rounds. The BoSox have done quite a bit of this the past few years, and the Yankees have already been doing some of it as well (heck, see Austin Jackson for an example).

...from you is pretty prophetic. Make that 8 years, with the only remotely close players being Bedard and Roberts.

I'm just glad I said 6 - if I said 5, Mussina wasn't all that impressive in 2005!

Why is this a problem? The Yanks will spend what they can afford to spend. Why should Yankee fans were if the ownership group is going to be able to throw some extra money on their pile at the end of the year.

I think it leads to a spiral that is destructive to team success. Look at the 2001-2006 period.

You overpay for players who will decline, you forfeit draft picks, the farm system atrophies, young guys don't get a chance b/c it is "must win" every year. Every hole has to be filled with a "proven" player b/c "anything less than a World Series ring is a failed season".

We just went through that disaster. The Yankees lost me as a fan for about a year and a half with the Sheffield/Brown/Randy Johnson debacles.

This plan doesn't work, and I got sick of rooting for mercenaries.

Count me out on the repeat.

I'd rather have Pettitte and Mussina in the rotation and Giambi at first and a 60% chance of making the playoffs, than havw CC and Tex, and a 70% chance of making the playoffs.

I think the team will be better off in the long-run.

I think it leads to a spiral that is destructive to team success. Look at the 2001-2006 period.


!!!

!!!

Like it or not, Yankee fans are not in this thing for division crowns.

The Yankees lost me as a fan for about a year and a half with the Sheffield/Brown/Randy Johnson debacles.

Sheffield had 2 very good years and 1 year lost to injury with the Yankees. How does that qualify as a debacle?

Well, one at least!

Maybe an isolated fluke, but also maybe a harbinger. Point is just that I don't think bigger market teams can count on a signability pick plus international free agent approach to player development going forward. That has the ring of fighting the last war to me.

Sheffield had 2 very good years and 1 year lost to injury with the Yankees. How does that qualify as a debacle?

They signed him instead of Vlad, and he was a massive prick and impossible for me to root for.

Fandom ain't 100% rational ;-)

and the Yankees have already been doing some of it as well (heck, see Austin Jackson for an example).

see brett marshall from *this* year, for example ... he dropped because he was committed to rice AND because he told several interested teams he wouldn't sign with them.

there are always going to be quality signability players available in later rounds for teams with deep draft pockets.

that wasn't what the yankees tried doing from 2001 - 2006 and that's not what failed, what failed is that they didn't have much of a player development plan at all ...

furthermore, your criticism doesn't take into account that the yankees are protected against draft devestation for at least the next couple of years by the fact that they have their own high quality free agents that are going to be signed by other people. IIRC, you can lose your own draft picks as free agent signing compensation, but not the picks that you receive as compensation for someone signing *your* free agents.

i'd say it's pretty good bet that the yankees have at least a 1st round and a supplemental round pick next summer, even if they sign both tex and cc.

His MLE for this year is .270/.335/.415.

Wow, really? Trenton must be some kind of pitchers park (I played there once btw, it's a cool stadium).

Wow, really? Trenton must be some kind of pitchers park (I played there once btw, it's a cool stadium).

It is. Dan has the 3-year multiplier at .96, so the actual PF should be around .92. The EL isn't that kind to hitters to begin with either.

"Then you are saying there is value in having an ability to win games."

Many pitchers have displayed an "ability to win games" but their team doesn't provide enough runs to give them those wins. Hence 18-win seasons versus 20-win seasons.

i'd say it's pretty good bet that the yankees have at least a 1st round and a supplemental round pick next summer, even if they sign both tex and cc.

It's not really this year I'm worried about. I wouldn't sweat losing the pick for CC or Tex if I thought they were worth the contracts.

What I'm concerned about is that once you've committed to the "buy a Championship" model, you have to keep dippping into the FA pool every year, and eventually the cumulative loss of picks cripples you.

If Tex was a Giambi equivalent (when the Yankees signed Giambi) I'd have no problem with signing him. He's just nowhere near as good, and only a little better than Giambi now. I'd guess a 1-1.5 win upgrade for a huge contract committment, and blocking 1B if you need it for Posada.

What I'm concerned about is that once you've committed to the "buy a Championship" model, you have to keep dippping into the FA pool every year, and eventually the cumulative loss of picks cripples you.

based on what exactly? again, i say that the issues that we are facing from the "plan" from 2001-2005 are not in any way demonstrative that what i've outlined is a strategy that cannot work. the simple truth is that the yankees neglected their farm system (the domestic draft, especially) in that period and that didn't change until cashman got the consolidation of power he needed to make it a priority in 2005 and with damon oppenheimer made it a priority to leverage the yankees unmatched purse to aggressively pursue signability cases.

and if the team doesn't lose overall draft picks (as they won't if abreu, giambi, pudge and probably moose are let go, which is the likely fall out from signing tex and cc) how is this team appreciably worse going forward than if they didn't sign either (and as a result, would likely keep giambi and moose)

i get the aesthetic thing, i do, watching the young guys come up the last 2 years has made this a fun team to watch, but i don't think that measured investment in top-tier free agents (along with aggressive commitment to the farm system) is some sorta of inescapable death spiral ...

Many pitchers have displayed an "ability to win games" but their team doesn't provide enough runs to give them those wins. Hence 18-win seasons versus 20-win seasons.

Or 14-win seasons versus 19-win seasons.

This plan doesn't work, and I got sick of rooting for mercenaries.

Count me out on the repeat.

I'd rather have Pettitte and Mussina in the rotation and Giambi at first and a 60% chance of making the playoffs, than havw CC and Tex, and a 70% chance of making the playoffs.

Aren't Mussina and Giambi exactly the kind of "mercenaries" you are complaining about? If they sign CC and Tex will you be saying you'd rather re-up them 5 years from now rather than give a long term deal to, let's say, Lincecum or Fielder?
Even if that's the way you prefer to go for next season what about 2010? Are you counting on Giambi, Mussina and Pettitte for 2010 as well? Star-caliber players of a reasonable age that fill an obvious hole simply aren't available every year on the FA market. The Yankees have the money and should jump on guys like CC and Tex if at all possible. The Yankees haven't failed because they've been a team of "mercenaries" they've failed because they've been signing/acquiring the wrong ones. Passing on Beltran and ending up giving just as much money to Damon, targeting Sheff over Vlad and especially on the pitching side with Pavano/Johnson/Brown/Igawa/ect. Then again there weren't many obvious FA starters that should have gone after instead. A pitcher of CCs caliber hitting the FA market has been a very rare thing over the last few years and it's likely to stay that way. The only logic that makes any sense as to why they shouldn't go after him is that their top prospects are almost entirely pitchers but you can never have too much pitching. If this season doesn't show that I don't know what would.

"Or 14-win seasons versus 19-win seasons."

Ok. Sure. My point is just because a pitcher pitches really well doesn't mean they are always rewarded with a win - no matter what Joe Morgan or some guy from the Shi*tsville Tribune Record Post Dispatch Herald who somehow manages to get a Hall of Fame vote says.

The 20 win season knock against Mussina has been brought up time and time again. And he's 6 wins away from having four of them. Again, the way sportwriters think - who are the only ones who have a vote here - I'm not so sure if he had those handful of wins they wouldn't put him in.

Aren't Mussina and Giambi exactly the kind of "mercenaries" you are complaining about?

They were. They are now long-time Yankees who everyone thought was washed up who came back strong to save this season. The narrative is part of fandom and the enjoyment of baseball. Mussina, Giambi, and Pettitte keeping the team alive is a great narrative.

Again, my fandom is not based on winning every possible game, I want to have fun, and I find rooting for the old guys and the young guys more fun. Home grown stars in their prime is, of course, the best of all worlds.

The only logic that makes any sense as to why they shouldn't go after him is that their top prospects are almost entirely pitchers but you can never have too much pitching. If this season doesn't show that I don't know what would.

I think it also shows you can't ever rely on a pitcher, any pitcher. CC is always one step or one pitch from a lost season, just like any other arm. I think it's virtually impossible to sign a pitcher to a good long term free agent contract.

I much rather take a riskier guy like Ben Sheets, if I can get him on a 4-year deal for say $18M per. Or sign older guys to 1-3 year deals. I think the recent Mussina and Pettitte have been great risk reward deals.

I much rather take a riskier guy like Ben Sheets, if I can get him on a 4-year deal for say $18M per.

A four year deal for a guy coming off his one (so far) healthy season? Major deja vu.
So you are specifically against rooting for "mercenaries" but also against any kind of long-term deals for free agents that might make them "long-time Yankees" at some point? Good luck man. Home grown stars are great like you said but expecting to fill an entire team with them is crazy. 2-3 years from now the Yankees will be A-Rod, Wang, Cano, possibly Austin Jackson and whichever young pitchers pan out and don't get injured. It's fine to say winning isn't everything but most of those holes ARE going to be filled with free agents, whether you like it or not. The free agent market really isn't what it used to be and that team is going to be mediocre at best but more likely flat out bad if they pass up on premiere free agents like CC and Tex when they are available.

I was one of the very few people here who said that the Yankees should have pulled the trigger on the Hughes/Kennedy/Cabrera-Santana trade, and then sign Mike Cameron to a one-year deal to play CF, backed by Brett Gardner. Pretty much every Yankee fan disagreed with me, and they may yet be proven right.

That said, I find it hard to believe that given these facts...

Tampa Bay Rays 70 46
Boston Red Sox 67 50
New York Yankees 63 54

Phil Hughes: 0-4 9.00
Ian Kennedy: 0-4 8.17
CC Sabathia (with MIL): 6-0 1.58

...the Yankees will not be going hard after CC Sabathia, unless things change a lot between now and the off-season.

As to Teixeira, I am not sure. It would not surprise me much if the Angels let Guerrero leave and gave Teixeira a big deal.

wins leaders per bb-ref entering today, must be active in 2008...


Player (age) Wins
Greg Maddux (42) 353
Tom Glavine* (42) 305
Randy Johnson* (44) 293
Mike Mussina (39) 265
Jamie Moyer* (45) 240
Kenny Rogers* (43) 218
(Curt Schilling (41) 216)
Andy Pettitte* (36) 213
Pedro Martinez (36) 212
John Smoltz (41) 210
Tim Wakefield (41) 175
Bartolo Colon (35) 150

weird how isolated Wakefield is, only active P from 150 to 210

It would not surprise me much if the Angels let Guerrero leave and gave Teixeira a big deal.

Vlad has a 15 mill option for next season with a 3 mill buyout. I would think they have to keep him for an effective price of 12 mill.

It would not surprise me much if the Angels let Guerrero leave and gave Teixeira a big deal.

I meant after 2009. Should've said so.