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Thursday, April 10, 2008

THT: Gassko: Testing my career projection system

Gassko’s latest toy…

Those numbers are still significantly higher than what Bill James’ Favorite Toy projects. So maybe we should run one more test: What if my system strongly over-projects young hitters with high odds of making it to 3,000 hits, like Young and Zimmerman?

Well then, let’s run the same test as above but restrict ourselves to only the players at each age who were in the top 10 in projected odds of gathering 3,000 hits. Among 20-year-olds, my system thought that 4.7 of the top 10 players would reach 3,000 hits; only two did. At age 21, the prediction was 3.7, and the actual number was three. At 22, 3.5 and four; at 23, 3.5 and four again.

In total, there was only a very slight over-prediction, and that was probably due just to random chance.

In other words, there is little evidence that our system highly overrates young hitters, and good reason to believe that one of Young or Zimmerman will eventually reach 3,000 hits.

Repoz Posted: April 10, 2008 at 09:53 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsProjections

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   1. dze27 Posted: April 10, 2008 at 12:46 PM (#2737913)
There's just no way A-Rod is a 7-4 dog to get 3000 hits. I would take that action any day. He needs about 4 seasons at his current pace and that would only take him to age 35. Jeter's odds seem way too low as well.
   2. Roy Hobbs of WIFFLE Ball Posted: April 10, 2008 at 01:08 PM (#2737941)
A-Rod with only a 3.7% edge on Delmon Young.

Here's my system for A-Rod:

100% - chances A-Rod gets run over by a car = 99.9999999999999999% chance at 3,000.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: April 10, 2008 at 01:12 PM (#2737947)
I spent far too long trying to decide who "Young" was from the excerpt. I finally decided it must mean Michael and that the system probably didn't work because of that.
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