My glasses aren't a concession to age. Like Dan Quayle and Sly Stallone, I just wear them to appear smarter.

If Craig stops by, is it worth my while as an out-of-stater to challenge an Ohio speeding ticket? I was careful enough not to admit guilt.

I enjoyed SABR Toronto, not sure if I loved it though. Maybe it was the Canadians.

It's one thing if some random study of the issue by Billy Joe Robidiminoux does a study that leaves me flat, but these aren't just any two random guys from Tacoma.

Billy Joe Robidoux is from Ware, which makes a better punchline.

One of the main criticisms of Comiskey II was the steepness of its upper deck. Cleveland's was even steeper. The chair in the preceding row barely went past my ankle.

I always thought that the first knock on Commy II wasn't the steepness of the upper deck, but the fact that the last row of the upper deck at the original Comiskey was closer to the plate than the first row of the new version. Which is a much more damning fact from most fans' point of view, and it's also why for lots of older fans (cough, cough) the best stadiums are the ones they built between 1909 and 1916.

If Craig stops by, is it worth my while as an out-of-stater to challenge an Ohio speeding ticket? I was careful enough not to admit guilt.

You should hire a local atty who will get it pled down to "improper equipment" or 9 mph over, and no points. It'll cost you a few bills though. Challenge? Uh, not likely.

If Craig stops by, is it worth my while as an out-of-stater to challenge an Ohio speeding ticket? I was careful enough not to admit guilt.

Somebody was excited about that text-message booty call.

If Craig stops by, is it worth my while as an out-of-stater to challenge an Ohio speeding ticket? I was careful enough not to admit guilt.

Not if you got in Linndale (inner suburb on I-71 just south of Cleveland). Tickets constitute about 90% of their operating revenue and they'll never overturn it. If it's from a big city force or the State Troopers, maybe, but you'll probably have to come back here to challenge it in person. I've heard tell of folks getting a speeding knocked down to an equipment violation, but it's not a sure bet.

BTW: there are cupholders in the lower decks at Progressive. I have no idea why they don't have them up in the 400 section.

Finally, I will be curled up in my office crying all day after Jaffe's crack about my bald head. Wait, that's a horrible idea. I need to think positively. I should even consider reaching out to my tormenters:

Chris, if you're reading this, I would like to do something about my bald head. How much will you charge for some of that extreme excess of back and neck hair you have creeping over the collar of your shirts? I'd like to make a toupee out of it.

Chris, if you're reading this, I would like to do something about my bald head. How much will you charge for some of that extreme excess of back and neck hair you have creeping over the collar of your shirts? I'd like to make a toupee out of it.

HEY! That's "Jaffe", not Dial.

Chris, if you're reading this, I would like to do something about my bald head. How much will you charge for some of that extreme excess of back and neck hair you have creeping over the collar of your shirts? I'd like to make a toupee out of it.

This thread is worthless without pics.

/wtf?

If Craig stops by, is it worth my while as an out-of-stater to challenge an Ohio speeding ticket? I was careful enough not to admit guilt.

Just don't show up. And don't drive in Ohio for 7 years and wait for the stature of limitations to expire.

This thread is going to be fantastic.

I gotta back my boy Calcaterra here. Yes, he's bald as a new-born, but come on Jaffe. Cut that mop why dontcha? $15 bucks at Great Clips ain't gonna kill ya.

Cut that mop why dontcha? $15 bucks at Great Clips ain't gonna kill ya.

But then what will become of his career on the Art Garfunkel lookalike circuit?

Somebody was excited about that text-message booty call.

Rebecca Howe and I aren't quite at that stage yet, but I did run into her again last nite.

So I get home yesterday and head over to my parents' house (I had been out of their basement for too long) for dinner and they start telling me about their trip this last week. They had gone to Monterey, CA for a family reunion. While there, they saw Gary Busey riding a bike along the coast. Small world.

But then what will become of his career on the Art Garfunkel lookalike circuit?

Granted, we all must make our own decisions about what we want to be when we grow up. Some of us undoubtly strive for the unkempt neo-hippie look, I suppose. But I'm telling you, Jaffe ain't gonna start siphoning off the Gleeman groupies unless he does something about that 'do.

Rebecca Howe and I aren't quite at that stage yet, but I did run into her again last nite.

Carla is going be pissed.

While there, they saw Gary Busey riding a bike along the coast. Small world.

that's not funny.

Jaffe must be pretty shaggy - they didn't make fun of my hair when I had way too much and mine was definitely completely out of control.

The story of Aaron Gleeman's encounter with young Red is hilarious.

that's not funny.

Oh, I must disagree. That is DEFINITELY funny.

Szym,
we missed you terribly. It was repeatedly remarked that your abcense lessened the experience - BUT the unexpected Hutcheson really picked up tons of the slack.

Szym, also, if you're around, I think I'm going to be driving into greater Baltimore next week.

While there, they saw Gary Busey riding a bike along the coast. Small world.

Was he wearing a helmet?

Was he wearing a helmet?

That was my first question, too. Apparently, yes, but it still left a lot of hair coming out the sides and back.

helmet

This one wears a helmets.

Szym,
we missed you terribly. It was repeatedly remarked that your abcense lessened the experience - BUT the unexpected Hutcheson really picked up tons of the slack.


Yeah, I've had terrible luck this year and last year. I'm glad to hear that Sammy was able to fulfill my role as Dial's Straight Man and Binge Encourage.

Jaffe must be pretty shaggy - they didn't make fun of my hair when I had way too much and mine was definitely completely out of control.

Keep in mind, I was not there for your hair. As such, you probably missed out on a good deal of mocking. I'm like that.

is it worth my while as an out-of-stater to challenge an Ohio speeding ticket?

No. Pay your fine and go on with your life.

Umm, was Item #2 supposed to be public knowledge?

Just don't show up. And don't drive in Ohio for 7 years and wait for the stature of limitations to expire.

I did this in Arkansas and Colorado. I had a moment of fear when I applied for my New York state license, but my worries were unfounded. The University of Texas still threatens to not let me graduate if I don't pay my parking ticket. No, I have never attended the University of Texas. Evidently, you can mess with Texas!

Keep in mind, I was not there for your hair. As such, you probably missed out on a good deal of mocking. I'm like that.

Didn't I have Beethoven-hair when I visited Atlanta?

I shave my head now and with the goatee, I look about 800% as menacing.

is it worth my while as an out-of-stater to challenge an Ohio speeding ticket?

Heh, I got a speeding ticket at Cincinnati SABR. It was the first time I had driven that much in Ohio and I didn't realize that "65 MPH" on an Ohio highway is not the "65 MPH but it's OK as long as you stay under 85" that I'm personally used to. And, uh, that I was actually on a 55 MPH stretch of highway.

Didn't I have Beethoven-hair when I visited Atlanta?

Aye, ye did laddy. I have photographic evidence to prove it. But those photos are not uploaded to the intrawebs yet. I spent the weekend sporting my Rome Braves hat from that trip, though. My own small Szymborski shout out.

I did this in Arkansas and Colorado. I had a moment of fear when I applied for my New York state license, but my worries were unfounded. The University of Texas still threatens to not let me graduate if I don't pay my parking ticket. No, I have never attended the University of Texas. Evidently, you can mess with Texas!

I still owe like $70 to my high school. I misplaced my calculus textbook and the school told me that I had to pay them for it. But the threat wasn't very good because they didn't threaten me by not letting me graduate but instead they threatened to withhold my final report card. I had kind of tanked that 4th quarter and had like 2 Ds, so I simply shrugged and let 'em keep it.

Aye, ye did laddy. I have photographic evidence to prove it. But those photos are not uploaded to the intrawebs yet. I spent the weekend sporting my Rome Braves hat from that trip, though.

I'll always treasure the sadness we inflicted upon Jonathan Schuerholz.

Sam, I think that Szym told me once that you looked like Kevin Smith. I was disappointed that you didn't wear a backwards cap and lean against the wall and chainsmoke.

Sam, I think that Szym told me once that you looked like Kevin Smith. I was disappointed that you didn't wear a backwards cap and lean against the wall and chainsmoke.

Don't think it was me.

I am disappointed that I didn't get to wear my Wayne Garland t-shirt.

Umm, was Item #2 supposed to be public knowledge?

That's exactly what I was thinking.

I am disappointed that I didn't get to wear my Wayne Garland t-shirt.

I was disappointed that Dial didn't wear his Shoe t-shirt this year.

Umm, was Item #2 supposed to be public knowledge?

I asked Sean if I could say it online. He allowed for it. I didn't go into much detail for similar reasons. I spent a few minutes right next to him on Friday night asking him what I could and could not say, though.

Umm, was Item #2 supposed to be public knowledge?

That's exactly what I was thinking.

Quick -- all of you agree to let me be your lawyer so that we can say this entire thread is privileged.

/wait, other people may be reading this?

Primey for #7.

I always thought that the first knock on Commy II wasn't the steepness of the upper deck, but the fact that the last row of the upper deck at the original Comiskey was closer to the plate than the first row of the new version. Which is a much more damning fact from most fans' point of view, and it's also why for lots of older fans (cough, cough) the best stadiums are the ones they built between 1909 and 1916.

I was going to make an entire point about this problem with all modern mallparks, but it would've gone on for too long. I agree with that idea, though.

I heard plenty of criticism of Comiskey II for it's horribly steep sets though.

Chris, if you're reading this, I would like to do something about my bald head. How much will you charge for some of that extreme excess of back and neck hair you have creeping over the collar of your shirts? I'd like to make a toupee out of it.

Toupee? Why stop short like that - built yourself a replacement Craig with it.

Like former Sen. Alan Simpson used to say - the good Lord only gives us all so many hormones - why would you want to waste yours up there?

Didn't I have Beethoven-hair when I visited Atlanta?

That was part of the deal, Szym. We drank in the hotel bar, and they had a big piano in there. We'd stand around - you could have played showtunes every night.

Jaffe must be pretty shaggy - they didn't make fun of my hair when I had way too much and mine was definitely completely out of control.

My hair is about halfway down my ears and about the same length all around.

We drank in the hotel bar, and they had a big piano in there. We'd stand around - you could have played showtunes every night.

Damn straight. We were severely lacking in piano-playing talent.

However the piano served useful purpose to place beers upon (shamelessly marring the richly-laquered finish), and, um, to lean against as a fall-prevention device.

Man, it's tough when the guy's own roommate for the last five years can't get a mention. Tough crowd.

Hey Anthony,

You'll get a well-deserved shout-out from me. That wiffleball game you showed such perseverant leadership in organizing was stupendously awesome.

As was your presentation, though its connection to the subject of, you know, baseball was a tad tenuous. Fascinating and insightful nonetheless.

I didn't realize that Giacalone's favorite sport is fishing.

It was the first time I had driven that much in Ohio and I didn't realize that "65 MPH" on an Ohio highway is not the "65 MPH but it's OK as long as you stay under 85" that I'm personally used to.

I will never understand this. I drive about 73-74 in a 65, blissfully happy that I'm likely to never get pulled over and that I'm only getting to my destination 8% slower than the guy doing 80. Even on a two hour journey, is that extra 9.6 minutes REALLY worth it?

Man, it's tough when the guy's own roommate for the last five years can't get a mention.

Yup. The real problem I had with the article (well, one of the problems I had with the article) was trying to figure out how to talk about friend-type-stuff without making it too insular. I stuck with people I thought I could have some expectation of - like the current/former THT guys and the bigger names from the world outside.

Shoulda posted more in Baseball Centrist.

As was your presentation, though its connection to the subject of, you know, baseball was a tad tenuous. Fascinating and insightful nonetheless.

"Tad Tenuous"? He used the word "baseball" about four times.

I'll save my comments for my own SABR review later today.

a rigorously mathematical approach will show at most only limited clutch ability.

I didn't see the Palmer/Cramer presentation (was on my way to a haunted Cleveland tour with my wife, which was far more interesting; I'll have to post some of the pictures somewhere), but I did have a chance to chat with Dick Cramer about it at one point, and they keep falling into a lot of the same traps. They don't account for the shifting performance baseline between typical player performance in the clutch and typical player performance in other situations, and they rely on aggregate performance levels rather than component-level performance to evaluate clutch ability.

A typical player will hit for a lower average and with lower power in clutch situations, but will walk more often (even after you account for intentional walks). This suggests that (a) pitchers try to minimize the damage that an extra-base hit can do, which makes sense, and (b) it may be fair to conclude that a player whose component-level performance profile doesn't change has clutch ability, because he's still able to deliver the extra-base hits even in situations where pitchers are trying harder to keep him from doing so.

-- MWE

A typical player will hit for a lower average and with lower power in clutch situations, but will walk more often (even after you account for intentional walks). This suggests that (a) pitchers try to minimize the damage that an extra-base hit can do, which makes sense, and (b) it may be fair to conclude that a player whose component-level performance profile doesn't change has clutch ability, because he's still able to deliver the extra-base hits even in situations where pitchers are trying harder to keep him from doing so.

I mentioned that you thought this when I chatted with him.

Way to put a downer on the entire thread, Mike. You've got your nerve talking about actual presentations.

I was entertained at some of the old guards resentment of some of the newer ones. It was amusing. And some of the old guards resentment toward some of the other old guard.

Mike's theory explains my question which Mr. Cramer so politely blew off during his presentation. If the results of clutch hitting truly occurred in a random sample and the players who over- and under-perform in the clutch are simply proof that someone has to be an outlier, then why were all of the players in the Top and Bottom 10 so similar to each other?

The top ten "most clutch" hitters were not randomly distributed among all positions and types of players. Instead, they were ALL singles hitters who put the ball in play. Scott Fletcher, Pat Meares, Desi Relaford, Sandy Alomar, Jr. were all in the Top 10. All are pretty similar in approach.

Then, on the flip side, you had guys like Richard Hidalgo, Earl Williams, etc. Guys much more likely to strikeout.

There is potentially enough substance in these results to make spawn more research into WHY these types of players succeed/fail in the clutch more often. Is it because, like Mike says, pitchers are less likely to give in and allow an extra base hit? Maybe Defensive Efficiency falls considerably during clutch situations because the defense is a little too "anxious" to make an out. Who knows, but Cramer and Palmer's presentation did not serve as the definitive final answer to me but only spurred on many more questions that I had never bothered to even ponder.

Instead, they were ALL singles hitters who put the ball in play. Scott Fletcher, Pat Meares, Desi Relaford, Sandy Alomar, Jr. were all in the Top 10. All are pretty similar in approach.

And Cramer and I discussed this afterwards. I pointed out to him that you (likely) didn't mean "Middle infielders", but people with short swings - "put the ball in play" swings, versus big swings (Hidalgo, for instance).

He said, that's possible, but even accepting yours and Mike's objections, how big the the change going to be. The point of their presentation, as I heard it, was that people are putting lots of energy into this, when it is much ado about nothing - or at best, much ado about very little. The gain isn't worth the effort. Scott Fletcher was just 10 runs over 10 years. Ron Johnson did this work 10 years ago, and came up with about 2 runs a year at best. So let's research something else.

You know what we need? Another metric to measure offense - who can do one of those?

Next year is DC? That might be close enough that I'll come to SABR for the first time, and be the young turk of the group.

be the young turk of the group.

A 14-yo gave a presentation this year. Although he wasn't up drinking until 5 am with us.

Next year is DC? That might be close enough that I'll come to SABR for the first time, and be the young turk of the group.

You turk of our subgroup maybe. There was a 14-year old kid that did a presentation this year . . .

Jeez, I'm thinking along the same lines as Dial. That is really scary . . .

The gain isn't worth the effort. Scott Fletcher was just 10 runs over 10 years. Ron Johnson did this work 10 years ago, and came up with about 2 runs a year at best. So let's research something else....You know what we need? Another metric to measure offense - who can do one of those?

Oh yes. Please. Could someone please get on this. I'd really like something that ran out to five or six decimal points of false precision if you could... I mean, why can't we all just agree that it's close enough to say a guy is hitting .28?

Snark aside, it could be the case that we don't need another offensive measure NOR is there a real benefit to quantitatively summarizing Martin Prado's .004 clutchiness per year.

Jeez, I'm thinking along the same lines as Dial. That is really scary . . .

We've been telling you that your fascination with 14 year olds is really scary for some time, Joe.

We've been telling you that your fascination with 14 year olds is really scary for some time, Joe.

He just like to find out where they buy their cool clothes.

A 14-yo gave a presentation this year. Although he wasn't up drinking until 5 am with us.

Neither was I...(sob, AA meeting at noon, sob)

Neither was I...(sob, AA meeting at noon, sob)

That's the saddest thing I've read in a long time. Did you really do this weekend sober?! Ye gods, man. Where did you find the strength?!

I think Daly also spent the weekend without drinking. He told me Saturday afternoon that he hadn't had any alcohol yet.

I also didn't drink, but then again I never do. I quit drinking when I turned 21.

I also didn't drink, but then again I never do. I quit drinking when I turned 21.

Huh. Wow. I'm not sure I've ever seen Dial sober. Either one of us.

That's the saddest thing I've read in a long time

Tinker to Evers to Chance?

Having had both, I can declaratively state: I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.

Did you really do this weekend sober?!

and the last 510 weekends.

Did you really do this weekend sober?!

Of course...Magnum 44 sixpacks picked up the slack.

A 14-yo gave a presentation this year. Although he wasn't up drinking until 5 am with us.

Oh, I'd be drinking.

The point of their presentation, as I heard it, was that people are putting lots of energy into this, when it is much ado about nothing - or at best, much ado about very little.

I understand where they are coming from, but IMO this is the way of sabermetrics going forward. There are many people interested in the question, dissatisfied with the answers that have been gotten from 25-year-old tools and techniques, and willing to try different and more in-depth ways of looking at the issue using better (and perhaps more appropriate) tools and techniques. Maybe those researchers will reach dead ends, too - but I don't think that's for Palmer and Cramer to say.

-- MWE

I think Daly also spent the weekend without drinking. He told me Saturday afternoon that he hadn't had any alcohol yet.

It wasn't that bad. It just meant that I'd go to sleep around midnite and wake up at seven. I stopped a couple of weeks ago for various reasons. (Trying to lose weight, save money, monster hangovers, etc.) But, I may have a couple to celebrate the Fourth.

Too, I saw Jaffe chug a Bud Light last year. But that was Saint Louis. I think Anheuser Busch products come out of the faucet there.

I think Anheuser Busch products come out of the faucet there.

Insert "Budweiser = water" joke here.

Enough of this talk of inebriation and the lack thereof. When is one of you shutterbugs who kept snapping pictures going to post a link?

Did you really do this weekend sober?!

He doesn't need to me to, but I can vouch for it. When I was playing cocktail waitress on Saturday night I retrieved a round that consisted of four Dortmunder Gold Lagers, two greyhounds (whatever the hell those were) a glass of chardonnay, a glass of champagne, and a Pepsi.

When Repoz ordered it, I said "don't tell me that, you're on drugs!" And he said "No Craig, I'm not on drugs I'm okay, I was just thinking you know, why don't you get me a Pepsi." And I said, "NO you're on drugs!" But all he wanted was a Pepsi, and I gave it to him.

Doesn't matter. He'll probably get hit by a car anyway.

and the last 510 weekends

You are a man of character and moral fibre, beau. Kudos. If I made the path more difficult in any way, my apologies.

Maybe those researchers will reach dead ends, too - but I don't think that's for Palmer and Cramer to say.

They aren't saying they can't. It's a warning, and a gentle suggestion that the energy could be focused elsewhere.

When is one of you shutterbugs who kept snapping pictures going to post a link?

As soon as I can get them downloaded.

-- MWE

It's a warning, and a gentle suggestion that the energy could be focused elsewhere.

But without a marker pointing where that "elsewhere" might be, I'm not sure the warning is worthwhile.

But without a marker pointing where that "elsewhere" might be, I'm not sure the warning is worthwhile.

Almost anyone doing clutch hitting research has other research they are ignoring in favor of clutch hitting. How about clutch pitching?

You are a man of character and moral fibre, beau. Kudos. If I made the path more difficult in any way, my apologies.

Sam, no apologies needed...hanging around with the Prime-Highball Times gang is rum cake compared to the punk/drug bar I Norm hang out at.

Hey, I was proud of myself for making it to midnight most nights. That's WAY late on the studes calendar.

Speaking of Cramer, he looked younger than I expected. Palmer, I've seen before. Chris, you mentioned Treder's sense of timing, but there was one particular time that it really worked.The time when he stopped reading and let the slide speak for itself.

Mike,

Did that Thursday morning presentation you raved about win the award for best presentation?

It's a warning, and a gentle suggestion that the energy could be focused elsewhere.

And I strongly disagree with the suggestion, given that it comes from two people who (a) have already made up their minds, (b) underestimate how many people are passionate about the subject, and (c) aren't aware of alternative approaches involving more sophisticated models that COULD be applied.

-- MWE

Almost anyone doing clutch hitting research has other research they are ignoring in favor of clutch hitting. How about clutch pitching?

I'm not saying yes or no, Dortmunder. I'm just asking.

Speaking of Cramer, he looked younger than I expected.

He asked a question during my presentation in Toronto. He had gray hair then. Now it's brown.

Almost anyone doing clutch hitting research has other research they are ignoring in favor of clutch hitting. How about clutch pitching?

Exactly what crossed my mind during the Palmer/Cramer piece.

Look up Jim Palmer's splits with none on/men on/ RISP/Loaded - his W, K, & HR rate constantly get better the clutchier the situation. I think there's one false step in the entire mix.

Did that Thursday morning presentation you raved about win the award for best presentation?

I wasn't able to attend the judges' meeting, so I don't know.

-- MWE

Maybe Defensive Efficiency falls considerably during clutch situations because the defense is a little too "anxious" to make an out.

Maybe Defensive Efficiency falls because teams go into "no doubles" defensive mode and slap hitters are better able to take advantage of their suboptimal positioning to defend against singles.

Look up Jim Palmer's splits with none on/men on/ RISP/Loaded - his W, K, & HR rate constantly get better the clutchier the situation. I think there's one false step in the entire mix.

If this means I'm going to have to re-assess Don Sutton's constant droning about how Horacio Ramirez was so good at "bearing down" with runners on base I'm going to ignore it and call you names. Not unlike my response to Voros oh these many years hence.

This was the first time I skipped the awards banquet. Who won the awards for presentations and the Bob Davids Award? Did Ron Shapiro give a good speech?

Doesn't Glavine have huge clutch type splits? I know there was something about him that was interesting, maybe it was his splits or maybe that his BB rate was much higher than expected on good hitters, showing that he would disproportionately (compared to average) go around them to get to the weak spots in the lineup. I'd guess someone like that would show up with great clutch splits . . .

One of the Paths of Glory guys won the Davis Award. Mark Armour, I think.

It was Armour.

Doesn't Glavine have huge clutch type splits? I know there was something about him that was interesting...

That wouldn't shock me at all. Glavine's entire approach can best be summed up as "one of these guys will lose patience and swing, or the ump will get bored and give me the call." Turns out never letting them hit the ball hard is a pretty decent strategy.