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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, June 30, 2008
Chris Jaffe takes in the SABR conven…BREAKING NEWS! Joe Dimino snaps wrist playing punchball: Bernie Williams to be slingbearer!
4. I’m sooooooo very tired of clutch hitting studies
By far the biggest names slated for Cleveland were longtime sabermetric lions Pete Palmer and Dick Cramer, who co-presented a section responding to Bill James’s “Understanding the Fog” article from the Baseball Research Journal from a few years ago.
This confirmed for me something I’ve long since believed. It wasn’t that clutch hitting can’t be shown to exist even if you account for James’ fog (which was their main point). It was about the entire debate. It’s the same damn back-and-forth. You’ll never be able to prove definitively that clutch ability doesn’t exist (that’s difficult with anything) and a rigorously mathematical approach will show at most only limited clutch ability.
It’s one thing if some random study of the issue by Billy Joe Robidiminoux does a study that leaves me flat, but these aren’t just any two random guys from Tacoma.
By and large, the air has become stagnant on this issue and the whole line of questioning is suffering. You know what someone will say about the issue before he opens his mouth. This dead horse keeps getting beaten.
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I always thought that the first knock on Commy II wasn't the steepness of the upper deck, but the fact that the last row of the upper deck at the original Comiskey was closer to the plate than the first row of the new version. Which is a much more damning fact from most fans' point of view, and it's also why for lots of older fans (cough, cough) the best stadiums are the ones they built between 1909 and 1916.
Somebody was excited about that text-message booty call.
Not if you got in Linndale (inner suburb on I-71 just south of Cleveland). Tickets constitute about 90% of their operating revenue and they'll never overturn it. If it's from a big city force or the State Troopers, maybe, but you'll probably have to come back here to challenge it in person. I've heard tell of folks getting a speeding knocked down to an equipment violation, but it's not a sure bet.
BTW: there are cupholders in the lower decks at Progressive. I have no idea why they don't have them up in the 400 section.
Finally, I will be curled up in my office crying all day after Jaffe's crack about my bald head. Wait, that's a horrible idea. I need to think positively. I should even consider reaching out to my tormenters:
Chris, if you're reading this, I would like to do something about my bald head. How much will you charge for some of that extreme excess of back and neck hair you have creeping over the collar of your shirts? I'd like to make a toupee out of it.
HEY! That's "Jaffe", not Dial.
This thread is worthless without pics.
/wtf?
But then what will become of his career on the Art Garfunkel lookalike circuit?
Rebecca Howe and I aren't quite at that stage yet, but I did run into her again last nite.
Granted, we all must make our own decisions about what we want to be when we grow up. Some of us undoubtly strive for the unkempt neo-hippie look, I suppose. But I'm telling you, Jaffe ain't gonna start siphoning off the Gleeman groupies unless he does something about that 'do.
Oh, I must disagree. That is DEFINITELY funny.
we missed you terribly. It was repeatedly remarked that your abcense lessened the experience - BUT the unexpected Hutcheson really picked up tons of the slack.
That was my first question, too. Apparently, yes, but it still left a lot of hair coming out the sides and back.
This one wears a helmets.
Szym,
we missed you terribly. It was repeatedly remarked that your abcense lessened the experience - BUT the unexpected Hutcheson really picked up tons of the slack.
Yeah, I've had terrible luck this year and last year. I'm glad to hear that Sammy was able to fulfill my role as Dial's Straight Man and Binge Encourage.
Keep in mind, I was not there for your hair. As such, you probably missed out on a good deal of mocking. I'm like that.
No. Pay your fine and go on with your life.
I did this in Arkansas and Colorado. I had a moment of fear when I applied for my New York state license, but my worries were unfounded. The University of Texas still threatens to not let me graduate if I don't pay my parking ticket. No, I have never attended the University of Texas. Evidently, you can mess with Texas!
Keep in mind, I was not there for your hair. As such, you probably missed out on a good deal of mocking. I'm like that.
Didn't I have Beethoven-hair when I visited Atlanta?
I shave my head now and with the goatee, I look about 800% as menacing.
is it worth my while as an out-of-stater to challenge an Ohio speeding ticket?
Heh, I got a speeding ticket at Cincinnati SABR. It was the first time I had driven that much in Ohio and I didn't realize that "65 MPH" on an Ohio highway is not the "65 MPH but it's OK as long as you stay under 85" that I'm personally used to. And, uh, that I was actually on a 55 MPH stretch of highway.
Aye, ye did laddy. I have photographic evidence to prove it. But those photos are not uploaded to the intrawebs yet. I spent the weekend sporting my Rome Braves hat from that trip, though. My own small Szymborski shout out.
I did this in Arkansas and Colorado. I had a moment of fear when I applied for my New York state license, but my worries were unfounded. The University of Texas still threatens to not let me graduate if I don't pay my parking ticket. No, I have never attended the University of Texas. Evidently, you can mess with Texas!
I still owe like $70 to my high school. I misplaced my calculus textbook and the school told me that I had to pay them for it. But the threat wasn't very good because they didn't threaten me by not letting me graduate but instead they threatened to withhold my final report card. I had kind of tanked that 4th quarter and had like 2 Ds, so I simply shrugged and let 'em keep it.
I'll always treasure the sadness we inflicted upon Jonathan Schuerholz.
Don't think it was me.
I am disappointed that I didn't get to wear my Wayne Garland t-shirt.
That's exactly what I was thinking.
I was disappointed that Dial didn't wear his Shoe t-shirt this year.
I asked Sean if I could say it online. He allowed for it. I didn't go into much detail for similar reasons. I spent a few minutes right next to him on Friday night asking him what I could and could not say, though.
Quick -- all of you agree to let me be your lawyer so that we can say this entire thread is privileged.
/wait, other people may be reading this?
I always thought that the first knock on Commy II wasn't the steepness of the upper deck, but the fact that the last row of the upper deck at the original Comiskey was closer to the plate than the first row of the new version. Which is a much more damning fact from most fans' point of view, and it's also why for lots of older fans (cough, cough) the best stadiums are the ones they built between 1909 and 1916.
I was going to make an entire point about this problem with all modern mallparks, but it would've gone on for too long. I agree with that idea, though.
I heard plenty of criticism of Comiskey II for it's horribly steep sets though.
Chris, if you're reading this, I would like to do something about my bald head. How much will you charge for some of that extreme excess of back and neck hair you have creeping over the collar of your shirts? I'd like to make a toupee out of it.
Toupee? Why stop short like that - built yourself a replacement Craig with it.
Like former Sen. Alan Simpson used to say - the good Lord only gives us all so many hormones - why would you want to waste yours up there?
My hair is about halfway down my ears and about the same length all around.
Damn straight. We were severely lacking in piano-playing talent.
However the piano served useful purpose to place beers upon (shamelessly marring the richly-laquered finish), and, um, to lean against as a fall-prevention device.
You'll get a well-deserved shout-out from me. That wiffleball game you showed such perseverant leadership in organizing was stupendously awesome.
As was your presentation, though its connection to the subject of, you know, baseball was a tad tenuous. Fascinating and insightful nonetheless.
I will never understand this. I drive about 73-74 in a 65, blissfully happy that I'm likely to never get pulled over and that I'm only getting to my destination 8% slower than the guy doing 80. Even on a two hour journey, is that extra 9.6 minutes REALLY worth it?
Yup. The real problem I had with the article (well, one of the problems I had with the article) was trying to figure out how to talk about friend-type-stuff without making it too insular. I stuck with people I thought I could have some expectation of - like the current/former THT guys and the bigger names from the world outside.
Shoulda posted more in Baseball Centrist.
I'll save my comments for my own SABR review later today.
I didn't see the Palmer/Cramer presentation (was on my way to a haunted Cleveland tour with my wife, which was far more interesting; I'll have to post some of the pictures somewhere), but I did have a chance to chat with Dick Cramer about it at one point, and they keep falling into a lot of the same traps. They don't account for the shifting performance baseline between typical player performance in the clutch and typical player performance in other situations, and they rely on aggregate performance levels rather than component-level performance to evaluate clutch ability.
A typical player will hit for a lower average and with lower power in clutch situations, but will walk more often (even after you account for intentional walks). This suggests that (a) pitchers try to minimize the damage that an extra-base hit can do, which makes sense, and (b) it may be fair to conclude that a player whose component-level performance profile doesn't change has clutch ability, because he's still able to deliver the extra-base hits even in situations where pitchers are trying harder to keep him from doing so.
-- MWE
The top ten "most clutch" hitters were not randomly distributed among all positions and types of players. Instead, they were ALL singles hitters who put the ball in play. Scott Fletcher, Pat Meares, Desi Relaford, Sandy Alomar, Jr. were all in the Top 10. All are pretty similar in approach.
Then, on the flip side, you had guys like Richard Hidalgo, Earl Williams, etc. Guys much more likely to strikeout.
There is potentially enough substance in these results to make spawn more research into WHY these types of players succeed/fail in the clutch more often. Is it because, like Mike says, pitchers are less likely to give in and allow an extra base hit? Maybe Defensive Efficiency falls considerably during clutch situations because the defense is a little too "anxious" to make an out. Who knows, but Cramer and Palmer's presentation did not serve as the definitive final answer to me but only spurred on many more questions that I had never bothered to even ponder.
He said, that's possible, but even accepting yours and Mike's objections, how big the the change going to be. The point of their presentation, as I heard it, was that people are putting lots of energy into this, when it is much ado about nothing - or at best, much ado about very little. The gain isn't worth the effort. Scott Fletcher was just 10 runs over 10 years. Ron Johnson did this work 10 years ago, and came up with about 2 runs a year at best. So let's research something else.
You know what we need? Another metric to measure offense - who can do one of those?
You turk of our subgroup maybe. There was a 14-year old kid that did a presentation this year . . .
Oh yes. Please. Could someone please get on this. I'd really like something that ran out to five or six decimal points of false precision if you could... I mean, why can't we all just agree that it's close enough to say a guy is hitting .28?
Snark aside, it could be the case that we don't need another offensive measure NOR is there a real benefit to quantitatively summarizing Martin Prado's .004 clutchiness per year.
We've been telling you that your fascination with 14 year olds is really scary for some time, Joe.
Neither was I...(sob, AA meeting at noon, sob)
That's the saddest thing I've read in a long time. Did you really do this weekend sober?! Ye gods, man. Where did you find the strength?!
I also didn't drink, but then again I never do. I quit drinking when I turned 21.
Huh. Wow. I'm not sure I've ever seen Dial sober. Either one of us.
Tinker to Evers to Chance?
and the last 510 weekends.
Of course...Magnum 44 sixpacks picked up the slack.
Oh, I'd be drinking.
I understand where they are coming from, but IMO this is the way of sabermetrics going forward. There are many people interested in the question, dissatisfied with the answers that have been gotten from 25-year-old tools and techniques, and willing to try different and more in-depth ways of looking at the issue using better (and perhaps more appropriate) tools and techniques. Maybe those researchers will reach dead ends, too - but I don't think that's for Palmer and Cramer to say.
-- MWE
It wasn't that bad. It just meant that I'd go to sleep around midnite and wake up at seven. I stopped a couple of weeks ago for various reasons. (Trying to lose weight, save money, monster hangovers, etc.) But, I may have a couple to celebrate the Fourth.
Too, I saw Jaffe chug a Bud Light last year. But that was Saint Louis. I think Anheuser Busch products come out of the faucet there.
Insert "Budweiser = water" joke here.
He doesn't need to me to, but I can vouch for it. When I was playing cocktail waitress on Saturday night I retrieved a round that consisted of four Dortmunder Gold Lagers, two greyhounds (whatever the hell those were) a glass of chardonnay, a glass of champagne, and a Pepsi.
When Repoz ordered it, I said "don't tell me that, you're on drugs!" And he said "No Craig, I'm not on drugs I'm okay, I was just thinking you know, why don't you get me a Pepsi." And I said, "NO you're on drugs!" But all he wanted was a Pepsi, and I gave it to him.
Doesn't matter. He'll probably get hit by a car anyway.
You are a man of character and moral fibre, beau. Kudos. If I made the path more difficult in any way, my apologies.
As soon as I can get them downloaded.
-- MWE
But without a marker pointing where that "elsewhere" might be, I'm not sure the warning is worthwhile.
Sam, no apologies needed...hanging around with the Prime-Highball Times gang is rum cake compared to the punk/drug bar I Norm hang out at.
Did that Thursday morning presentation you raved about win the award for best presentation?
And I strongly disagree with the suggestion, given that it comes from two people who (a) have already made up their minds, (b) underestimate how many people are passionate about the subject, and (c) aren't aware of alternative approaches involving more sophisticated models that COULD be applied.
-- MWE
I'm not saying yes or no, Dortmunder. I'm just asking.
He asked a question during my presentation in Toronto. He had gray hair then. Now it's brown.
Almost anyone doing clutch hitting research has other research they are ignoring in favor of clutch hitting. How about clutch pitching?
Exactly what crossed my mind during the Palmer/Cramer piece.
Look up Jim Palmer's splits with none on/men on/ RISP/Loaded - his W, K, & HR rate constantly get better the clutchier the situation. I think there's one false step in the entire mix.
I wasn't able to attend the judges' meeting, so I don't know.
-- MWE
If this means I'm going to have to re-assess Don Sutton's constant droning about how Horacio Ramirez was so good at "bearing down" with runners on base I'm going to ignore it and call you names. Not unlike my response to Voros oh these many years hence.
That wouldn't shock me at all. Glavine's entire approach can best be summed up as "one of these guys will lose patience and swing, or the ump will get bored and give me the call." Turns out never letting them hit the ball hard is a pretty decent strategy.
I'm sorry I couldn't go this year, fellas. Alejandra could have played the piano for you guys - if they'd have let a 10-year-old in the bar. It's still school term here in the UK, and it's been the worst year on record, workwise, for me. Four transAtlantic air tickets don't come cheaply.
Theoretically, I'm moving to Canada in August, so maybe DC will be good for me, as I won't have to take all the family to see Grandma, too!
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