THT: Jaffe: Up and down the Hall of Fame Vote

Candidate’s chances? What is this...SeventyFive.com?

That brings up a new avenue of exploration. To forecast a candidate’s chances, there are two items you should take into account. First, obviously, is his share of the vote. Second is how long he’s been on the ballot. Someone receiving 45 percent of the vote in his first year is in excellent shape. However, if that’s what you get in your 15th year, what are his odds?

...This is a weird one, necessitating the return of two shades of gray. Only six are in the lock category, including Dawson and Rice. (Actually, Rice is at the bottom of the category, even though he’s not in.)

After Rice, three of the next five aren’t in Cooperstown (Hodges, Oliva, and Jack Morris). Then seven of the next eight are in Cooperstown. The only one outside is Bert Blyleven, who has an outstanding shot for admission.

Frankly, Morris is a good bet, and Oliva looks like a future VC selection. That big stretch of Hall of Famers ends the Dark Gray category. It may very well become all Lock. Imagine that—32 percent makes you a lock after seven years on the ballot. A bit of a fluke, but it demonstrates how overblown the 75 percent barrier is. All you have to do is approach it.

Half of the 14 men in light gray are in Cooperstown. None below it are in.