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Thursday, March 27, 2008

THT: Studeman: Ten Things I Didn’t Know a while ago

Studes is back with one of my fave bits…

Even though they come from different places, I think John Brattain and Bill James share some of the same concerns. It seems that some folks use “traditional” sabermetrics to make their point about stolen bases or sacrifice bunts. But there is no such thing as traditional sabermetrics. There is only the pursuit of truth.

So who are the truth-seekers out there? Well, I know Tangotiger and MGL are. Greg Rybarczyk is. Most of us at THT are—even the ones who don’t dabble in math. We’re mostly interested in the truth of baseball; it’s what we like to write about.

The thing is, truth comes in many forms. The truth isn’t always about answers, it’s also about the framework, the context. For instance, I think one of the most important contexts to come out of sabermetrics is the power of the win. Most things come down to wins and losses. Even runs scored and allowed only have one purpose: to win and lose. Who should be the MVP? Whoever did the most to help his team win. Who should be in the Hall of Fame? There are a number of factors, but the most important ought to be who did the most to help his team win.

Which team was the best team in a specific year? The team that won the last game of the postseason.

Repoz Posted: March 27, 2008 at 11:01 AM | 30 comment(s)
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1. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: March 27, 2008 at 11:26 AM (#2721657)

Whoa, I'm mentioned in the same sentence as Bill James.

He's gonna be ten levels of p***ed.

Best Regards

John

2. Edmundo, more Jules than Jim Posted: March 27, 2008 at 11:31 AM (#2721664)

He's gonna be ten levels of p***ed.
Or he'll say "John, who?" :)
Studes, I'm glad to see the series back

3. Dr Love Posted: March 27, 2008 at 11:34 AM (#2721666)

Neil Armstrong or Ruben Rivera: who is a worse baserunner?

4. Steve Treder Posted: March 27, 2008 at 11:35 AM (#2721669)

Neil Armstrong or Ruben Rivera: who is a worse baserunner?

One small step for man, one giant flop for Ruben Rivera.

5. Shooty Is A One Man Legion Posted: March 27, 2008 at 11:41 AM (#2721676)

Or he'll say "John, who?" :)
Studes, I'm glad to see the series back

Bastard! It would have made my day to make this joke. Another potential shining moment for Shooty ruined by office work. Grrr.

6. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: March 27, 2008 at 11:41 AM (#2721677)

Or he'll say "John, who?" :)

I'll take that over "John, what?"

Best Regards

John

7. aleskel Posted: March 27, 2008 at 11:45 AM (#2721680)

I'll take that over "John, what?"

"Pass"

8. studes Posted: March 27, 2008 at 01:08 PM (#2721748)

Thanks for the link, Repoz. It's too much fun to write.

9. Voros Posted: March 27, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#2721798)

I learned my lesson on seeking truth. From now on I seek money. Keats can go pound sand. :)

10. Walt Davis Posted: March 27, 2008 at 02:39 PM (#2721805)

Which team was the best team in a specific year? The team that won the last game of the postseason.

But this is (often) not true.

11. robinred Posted: March 27, 2008 at 02:44 PM (#2721808)

12. Dag Nabbit Posted: March 27, 2008 at 02:48 PM (#2721811)

I learned my lesson on seeking truth. From now on I seek money.

And thus you have learned the real truth.

13. HOPE: Madison Obamagarner (Flynn) Posted: March 27, 2008 at 02:56 PM (#2721820)

But this is (often) not true.

But probably less than people say it is. Too many people proclaim one team better than another when they've won 2 more games at the end of the season. That's less than one and one-quarter percent of regular season games per team.

14. Gamingboy Posted: March 27, 2008 at 03:01 PM (#2721826)

That Minor League Database is a thing of beauty. No longer can a uncle lie at a Family reunion and say that he played in the Cardinals System in the Early 70's...

(No, that didn't happen to me. Instead, my uncle said he had played in the NHL for the Toronto Maple Leafs. A lie.)

15. Toolsy McClutch Posted: March 27, 2008 at 03:24 PM (#2721837)

I also love WPA, mostly because it is so easy to grasp and explain to others. I also love how it encompasses some clutch-iness.

16. Ron Johnson Posted: March 27, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2721843)

my uncle said he had played in the NHL for the Toronto Maple Leafs. A lie.

I dunno. Could have played under an assumed name. Wasn't a great time to be a Leafs fan and I'd assume it also wasn't a great time to be a player.

Just thinking out loud, but which looks better on your resume.

1974: 7th defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs

or

1974: In prison

17. Edmundo, more Jules than Jim Posted: March 27, 2008 at 03:50 PM (#2721854)

Just thinking out loud, but which looks better on your resume.

1974: 7th defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs

or

1974: In prison

They would seem the same, except for needing different stick-handling skills.

That one's for unga bunga boy.

18. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: March 27, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2721876)

Or a willingness to pull the goalie when the pressure starts mounting.

Best Regards

John

19. Edmundo, more Jules than Jim Posted: March 27, 2008 at 04:31 PM (#2721891)

Oh lord, hockey is a fertile field and I'm not that much of a fan...

I don't even want to know what the "5 hole" is
Nor Butterfly style
Nor Mucking in the courners
Nor Wrist shot
And no, I don't want to go "Top Shelf" on the goalie

20. Toolsy McClutch Posted: March 27, 2008 at 04:33 PM (#2721895)

True story, this large black man wandered over to my table one evening after softball and began to schooze with us. As the evening wore on, he bought us drinks, hit on our women and eventually let it slip that he was a former pro football player. Brother of another player, who most of us had heard of - can't remember who it was now. Anyway, he offered to take me and a friend golfing the next weekend and plans were set. Spoke to him a few times on the phone and everything seemed a go.

As well, my friend and I being the distrusting sort searched the web for any history on him and found very little. Though at the time, there wasn't a lot of info on 70s era marginal NFL pros. Since we weren't out anything, and he seemed to know a few people at the bar we frequented, we decided to take him at his word.

Long story short, golf fell through. Never spoke to him again. Weeks later, owner of said bar came and told me that a non-insignificant number of patrons had lost money on a confidence game he ran. They had spoken to the police and gotten some info back that he had been doing that through the Toronto area for a few monthes, that he wasn't a former pro, and that they were looking for him already.

Weird, huh?

21. studes Posted: March 27, 2008 at 05:31 PM (#2721947)

Which team was the best team in a specific year? The team that won the last game of the postseason.

But this is (often) not true.

Imagine my disappointment if a Primer hadn't brought that up.

22. Srul Itza Posted: March 27, 2008 at 05:34 PM (#2721949)

Imagine my disappointment if a Primer hadn't brought that up.

Imagine my disappointment if you didn't continue to flog your favorite junk stat, WPA.

23. AROM wants you off his lawn Posted: March 27, 2008 at 05:42 PM (#2721955)

Studes, I like what you did with the Totalzone stats to find the flukiest defensive season ever.

Not long ago I had a long converstation with Michael Humphries (DRA), another guy who's done a lot of work on historical defensive stats. We observed that Kirby's defensive stats are inversely proportional to his homerun totals. When Kirby came up, I don't think you'd ever call him skinny, but he looked like a typical little fast player before he put on the pounds and began to resemble a bowling ball. Here's the rookie Puckett.

24. studes Posted: March 27, 2008 at 08:38 PM (#2722030)

Hadn't thought of that, Rally. Thanks.

Imagine my disappointment if you didn't continue to flog your favorite junk stat, WPA.

Well, that or Win Shares. Take your pick.

25. KevinHess (SARM leader) Posted: March 27, 2008 at 08:48 PM (#2722036)

I'd choose your version of Win Shares over WPA in a second, perhaps less. WPA is less interesting than RBI.

26. Srul Itza Posted: March 27, 2008 at 09:04 PM (#2722039)

Ditto

27. dlf Posted: March 27, 2008 at 09:29 PM (#2722052)

To each their own. I've enjoyed Win Probability since reading the Mills brothers before most folks around these parts were born. I did like seeing that a couple of clubs & player agents referred to statistical constructs similar to WPA during arbitration hearings the last couple of years. It ain't the holy grail of sabermetrics, but I hope HBT / Fangraphs keeps publishing the data.

28. studes Posted: March 27, 2008 at 10:35 PM (#2722081)

Yeah, I'm clueless as to why people hate WPA so much. I mean I understand that it's not for everyone, but the outright hate blows me away. But I don't want to start that one again.

29. Voros Posted: March 27, 2008 at 10:49 PM (#2722091)

I don't understand either. I guess it stems from the fact that it's limitations are the sorts of things that are hard to explain (or hard to explain why they are limitations) to someone not versed in the ins and outs of it.

One other thing (and the last thing I want to do is to open this can of worms again), is that many of the things that have been traditionally ascribed to an individual's statistical line are things where the player's presence on the field is in some ways coincidental to the measurement. WPA does have some problems in that area as well.

30. cardsfanboy Posted: March 27, 2008 at 10:49 PM (#2722092)

the problem is that smart people are jumping on wpa and giving it more credit than it deserves, it's not less than relavent than rbi's but it's pretty damn close. Wpa is not a great stat, it's not even a good stat, it's a 'Stark useless information' stat. It's fine when used as what it's designed for, but as any of the first ten points in an MVP argument it surely doesn't belong.

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THT: Studeman: Ten Things I Didn’t Know a while ago

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