THT: Tango: Momentum? Shmomentum!

To the pseudovector belong the spoils.

Now, let’s say that you somehow are god-like, and know momentum when you see it. How much is it worth? As we know, a superstar like Albert Pujols is worth some seven wins, per 162 games, above replacement. That means that if you have a .500 chance of winning with an average team and bad first baseman, adding Pujols will make it a .550 team. Something like that. If you have a great pitcher, C.C. Sabathia or Doc Halladay, you turn a .500 team into a .625 team. How much can momentum be worth? Can it possibly cancel out the Rays bringing in C.C. Sabathia or Roy Halladay? Can it even cancel out bringing in Grady Sizemore or Pujols or Joe Mauer? Is momentum even worth Willie Bloomquist?

...And don’t forget that we’re talking extreme momentum here; in-game momentum in which the team scored five runs in an inning to tie the game. One must believe that the effect of momentum must be even less day-to-day.

Momentum exists. But we’ll be hard-pressed to find it in anything other than in-game scenarios. We can barely find it with the numbers in even the most dramatic come-from-behind games. All you have left to do is enjoy the moment, without having to explain it. If you really have the need to tell people that you have found momentum, then here’s what you do: Find 10 games from now for the next 12 months that you think has momentum or chemistry written all over it. Bet on the game. Then, come back here, on November 1, 2009, and tell me how much money you made. And I don’t want to hear only from the winners.