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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, October 23, 2008THT: Tango: Momentum? Shmomentum!To the pseudovector belong the spoils.
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My BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsNewsblog: Hardball Talk: Gleeman: Lenny Dykstra is back with some more can't miss investment advice (136 - 11:41pm, Feb 09) Last: depletion Newsblog: JS Online: Schoeneweis signs minor league deal with Brewers (2 - 11:38pm, Feb 09) Last: Jim (jimmuscomp) Newsblog: Borzi: Upbeat Twins owner Jim Pohlad has lots to say but stays mum on the Mauer issue (18 - 11:37pm, Feb 09) Last: Replacement-Level Primate Newsblog: Dodger Thoughts: In search of truth about Frank McCourt and the Dodgers (7 - 11:34pm, Feb 09) Last: Tripon Newsblog: FanGraphs: Carruth: Fastball Losses (11 - 11:32pm, Feb 09) Last: Joshua Gibsons Ruth (Voxter) Newsblog: MLB: Mays' life and legend transcend statistics
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I suspect that if Tango factored in the expected results or win expectancy of the individual matchups, once tied, what little bump he found for "momentum" teams would vanish.
Being a worse team would make you more likely to be at a big deficit, though.
Both teams are tied coming into the, say 7th. One got there by scoring all their runs in the 6th, and the other by scoring all their runs in the first 5 innings. I'm not sure that you can say that there is a bias in team quality based on that information.
The bias may exist in terms of bullpen, and so momentum may simply be "the next hour's relief pitchers". I did not check for that.
That was what I was going to suggest, that the bullpen conditions may be vastly different (one team's guy is more likely to be throwing well, the other one searching for an arm that's useful).
I've always wondered what was included under the momentum umbrella. Increased confidence/loss of confidence? Sure, I think that can lead to continued success. An injury suffered by the other team? Obviously. Better execution (particularly in other sports)? Absolutely. But if it's strictly the idea that good recent results will produce future good results, independent of these more factors, then no.
That's absolutely true, but misses the point. Being down five isn't what gets teams into the sample. Once a team is down five, a better team should be more likely to have one of these comebacks.
While the '03 Tigers are way more likely to be down five than the '27 Yankees, once in that spot, the Yankees are more likely to comeback. And if they do, we'd all agree that being '27 Yankees is more of an advantage going forward in the tie game, than any momentum garnered from coming back.
Tango, I'm not sure of any bias in team quality based on the comebacks themselves, but the records going into the games would certainly be relevant. This study treats both teams like .500 teams subject to league average splits. With a 230 game sample, it could very well be that the teams coming back were .530 coming in, or the teams blowing leads were .470 or somewhere inbetween. If that were the case, it would undermine your results. I wish you had checked.
Regardless, thanks for the article.
Ok, so quality of offense and defense should be included, as well as quality of relievers remaining.
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