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How much of this is due to teams testing him because he was playing a new position? Probably not much as it is now two years in a row he has posted stellar numbers in this area.
We can answer that question. In 2006, Soriano had one of the lowest Hold Rates among left fielders (96). He was the only above-averge LF with a sub-100 Hold Rate. In 2007, Soriano had the third-highest Hold Rate among left fielders (108). Teams were testing him when he first moved to the position, but last year it was quite the opposite.
Also interesting is that Brad Hawpe is 6th from the bottom. He's not one you'd expect to see towards the bottom of the page...throwing is his one defensive skill.
He was 2nd best in 2006, and about a third from the top in 2005. So...is there a sample size limitation here for single-year stats? (Green was last in 2005 and 2006, btw, and Francoeur was 1st and 5th).
What are the chances that Soriano makes the HOF? He may end up with something like 425-450 homers and 350-400 stolen bases. Those are pretty nice numbers. The OBP is nothing special obviously but he does have a slugging percentage of over .500 in his career so far. He'll have to age well but he certainly has a chance.
Not all kills have the same run value. The 0.6 that I gave in the article is an average for the "extra assists".
Each of the five "standard" categories gets its own run value -- actually, two, depending on if there are two outs or not.
If you play around with the run expectancy matrix you'll see that, e.g., throwing out a runner at home on a single is worth more than .6 runs, in fact, it's worth upwards of a run in the case of fewer than 2 outs. The run value is even higher for Situation 3, a runner trying to score from 1B on a double. Cuddyer had nine kills in those two situations when five were expected.
We can answer that question. In 2006, Soriano had one of the lowest Hold Rates among left fielders (96).
Looking at that and the rankings this year for National's fielders, I think there's a bit more of a park adjustment that needs to be made to really account for the giant pasture the Nats play in. Their fielders play a lot deeper than the average team, making first-to-third practically automatic. (of course the adjustment takes care of some of that, but as the article notes, it does present sample size problems).
He's got a top CF/RF arm in LF. If he'd come up as an OF, somebody would have noticed this long ago and had him switching between CF and RF, maybe settling in RF if he didn't have the range in center; maybe stretched out at CF for a few season. His numbers look so high in LF compared to a bunch of guys who have been selected over the years for guys who don't have the arm to play the other positions. This metric looks at expected kills & holds, so it's comparing only to other LFers. Most of those guys are in left (in part) because of their poor arms--Soriano's only in LF by "accident."
That is part of it.
One thing I've noticed watching Soriano is that he will throw the ball without going through the elaborate set and fire which the vast majority of outfielders rely on. Now, I wouldn't be teaching anyone to make offbalance throws from the outfield but I think that is how Soriano gets so many kills despite the growing awareness of his abilities.
If you play around with the run expectancy matrix you'll see that, e.g., throwing out a runner at home on a single is worth more than .6 runs, in fact, it's worth upwards of a run in the case of fewer than 2 outs. The run value is even higher for Situation 3, a runner trying to score from 1B on a double. Cuddyer had nine kills in those two situations when five were expected.
Hmmm, I can't see that. I mean, sort of, when you are counting a "run realized", but I think game situations really affect that. And a team that plays more close games has more opportunities for that (maybe you accounted for all that).
Looking at R1O0 going to R13O0 vs R1O1, I see your 1.3+ runs, but are youbstracting throws to third that don't get the runner,and allow the trail runner to move up? Throws to home often result in that? Are you analyzing the game state after each throw, rther than just the lead guy(You may have said this and I missed it).
Game situation may need to be considered if you are giving full RE credit.
interesting point. Hadn't thought about that.
Now the trade makes sense!
I do take into account the game situation. In fact, the average run values are calculated from the data itself, which includes, of course, the advancement of additional runners, etc.
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