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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, April 21, 2008
“Which is the better pitch: an 87-mph fastball on the outside corner or 96 down the middle? John has a look using (of course) PITCHf/x.”
The first plot shows the percentage of swing-and-misses relative to the number of swings. We expect a greater percentage of misses as speed increases and we see that for both the low-and-away and the middle-in pitches. The trends aren’t that startling, although it appears that throwing above 94-mph really helps, especially on the inside pitches. Naturally, pitches on the outside portion of the plate are harder to hit than inside pitches. In any case, there is nothing in this plot that explains why speed doesn’t matter low-and-away.
Next, we have the percentage of called balls, relative to the number of taken pitches. I found this plot fascinating, mostly because it came as a surprise. Around 30 percent of all taken pitches in the low-and-away zone are called balls and the faster the pitch, the higher chance it has of being called a ball. Remember, essentially all these pitches are actually in the strike zone and should have been called strikes. So, here we see a definite disadvantage to throwing hard—you have a greater chance of a bad call from the umpire. That sucks doesn’t it? Ninety-eight mph heater at the knees on the outside black: BALL! calls the ump. Same exact location, but now it’s thrown at 86 mph: STRIKE! Maybe this is the reason that guys like Tom Glavine, who work the outside corner with soft stuff, seem to get more than their share of close calls.
Repoz
Posted: April 21, 2008 at 05:11 PM | 4 comment(s)
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EDIT: OK, I see he mentions Glavine, but posits that Glavine gets the call because he doesn't throw as hard. I think it's more likely Glavine gets the call because he's Glavine, and that's what making outside "slow" fastballs look better. Be interesting to see a breakdown of strikes called by speed/zone that's also broken out by age/tenure of the pitcher.
That seems so bass-ackwards.
That seems so bass-ackwards.
Mebbe, but mebbe not. The soft tossers are more likely to be nibblers and trying to hit the edge, whereas the hardballers are only trying to hit the zone. Just a dataless postulate on my part, mind you.
That seems so bass-ackwards.
Well, there's not many pitchers in the major leagues that throw <86 MPH, so besides the Glavines and Moyers, you mainly have injured pitchers who are either working their way into or out of the majors. Think Jeff Weaver or Mark Mulder in recent years.
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