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Thursday, January 17, 2008

THT: Young: Ten pitching seasons to forget

Ortega shells!  Not only does Phil Ortega show up here as having one of the worst pitching seasons ever...he has made many an All-Ugly Team in the past. So, congrats Phil!

My method, if I may be so bold as to call it that, was to look for pitchers who had qualified for the ERA title in any season from 1957 to 2007 and sort them by ERA+. The bit about qualifying for the ERA title is important because I didn’t want poseurs like Steve Blass ‘73, Andy Larkin ‘98 or Jesse Jefferson ‘76 showing up in the results. Really, if you’re going to stink up the joint, you need to be able to close the deal.

I looked for pitchers whose ERA+ was 70 or lower and found 18 of them. I then divided the OPS+ allowed by each pitcher by their ERA+, for a completely nonsensical index; next, I multiplied that product by innings pitched (with an adjustment for strike years, 162 divided by the number of games actually played) to create an even more nonsensical index, by which I ordered the pitchers. The methodology may not be terribly sophisticated, but I’m confident that it’s at least as good as the pitching performances it attempts to measure.

Wait, did I just diss myself?

Repoz Posted: January 17, 2008 at 09:05 AM | 10 comment(s)
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   1. Edmundo, survivor of 7 right-sourcings Posted: January 17, 2008 at 11:31 AM (#2670356)
Who knew that Zim caught? It looks like the baseball lifer move -- picking up the catcher's glove in the twilight of his career. I have new respecct for the man.
   2. Jim P Posted: January 17, 2008 at 11:31 AM (#2670357)
Why not just use negative RCAA or WARP or whatever?

On a side note, batters with fewer than 502 PA can still win the batting title if you add outs until they get to 502 PA. Maybe here, bad pitchers with not quite enough innings can add scoreless innings to reach 162, and if they are still bad enough, they win!
   3. Philippe Posted: January 17, 2008 at 11:32 AM (#2670358)
Check out Phil Huffman, 1979. That's one amazingly bad season. I'm not sure how he avoids making this list.
   4. JPWF13 Posted: January 17, 2008 at 12:47 PM (#2670418)
The 69 worst post war pitching seasons by ERA+ (Huffman is tied for 55th):
Cnt Player ERA+ IP Year Age Tm
+----+-----------------+----+-----+----+---+---+
1 Jose Lima 63 168.2 2005 32 KCR
2 Jack Lamabe 65 177.1 1964 27 BOS
3 Mark Davis 66 174.2 1984 23 SFG
4 Eric Milton 66 186.1 2005 29 CIN
5 Bob Knepper 66 165 1989 35 TOT
6 Rick Wise 66 182 1968 22 PHI
7 Warren Spahn 67 173.2 1964 43 MLN
8 Steve Arlin 68 180 1973 27 SDP
9 Phil Ortega 68 179.2 1965 25 WSA
10 Matt Keough 68 209.1 1982 26 OAK
11 Javier Vazquez 69 172.1 1998 21 MON
12 Frank Baumann 70 187.2 1961 27 CHW
13 Joel Pineiro 70 165.2 2006 27 SEA
14 Vida Blue 70 237 1979 29 SFG
15 Pete Broberg 70 176.1 1972 22 TEX
16 Bob Feller 71 191.2 1952 33 CLE
17 Bill Singer 71 179 1975 31 CAL
18 Camilo Pascual 71 188.2 1956 22 WSH
19 Bob Walk 71 187 1993 36 PIT
20 Willie Fraser 71 194.2 1988 24 CAL
21 Brandon Duckworth 71 163 2002 26 PHI
22 Jaime Navarro 72 172.2 1998 31 CHW
23 Jack Fisher 72 220.1 1967 28 NYM
24 Dick Drott 72 167.1 1958 21 CHC
25 Clay Kirby 72 191.2 1973 25 SDP
+----+-----------------+----+-----+----+---+---+
Cnt Player ERA+ IP Year Age Tm
+----+-----------------+----+-----+----+---+---+
26 Dave Mlicki 72 167.2 2001 33 TOT
27 Chuck Stobbs 72 211.2 1957 27 WSH
28 Jim Hughes 72 177 1976 24 MIN
29 Joe Coleman 72 201 1975 28 DET
30 Doug Bird 72 191 1982 32 CHC
31 Alex Kellner 73 173.2 1954 29 PHA
32 Mike Oquist 73 175 1998 30 OAK
33 Moe Drabowsky 73 168.1 1964 28 KCA
34 Carl Morton 73 213.2 1971 27 MON
35 Herm Wehmeier 73 190.1 1952 25 CIN
36 Sammy Ellis 73 164 1968 27 CAL
37 Joe Niekro 73 177 1968 23 CHC
38 Mickey Lolich 73 203.2 1966 25 DET
39 Nino Espinosa 73 203.2 1978 24 NYM
40 Sid Hudson 74 182 1948 33 WSH
41 Lary Sorensen 74 189.1 1982 26 CLE
42 Rick Honeycutt 74 164 1982 28 TEX
43 Dave Stewart 74 226 1991 34 OAK
44 Mark Hendrickson 74 178.1 2005 31 TBD
45 Max Surkont 74 166.1 1955 33 PIT
46 Jose Mercedes 74 184 2001 30 BAL
47 Jason Marquis 74 194.1 2006 27 STL
48 Ray Sadecki 74 172.2 1965 24 STL
49 Scott Olsen 74 176.2 2007 23 FLA
50 Wilbur Wood 74 168 1978 36 CHW
+----+-----------------+----+-----+----+---+---+
Cnt Player ERA+ IP Year Age Tm
+----+-----------------+----+-----+----+---+---+
51 Sammy Ellis 74 221 1966 25 CIN
52 Early Wynn 74 198 1948 28 WSH
53 Herm Wehmeier 74 230 1950 23 CIN
54 Bob Knepper 74 177.2 1987 33 HOU
55 Dave Roberts 75 192 1972 27 HOU
56 Joel Pineiro 75 189 2005 26 SEA
57 Bob Knepper 75 180 1982 28 HOU
58 Jose Lima 75 196.1 2000 27 HOU
59 Phil Huffman 75 173 1979 21 TOR
60 Bert Blyleven 75 207.1 1988 37 MIN
61 Jim Bibby 75 264 1974 29 TEX
62 Mark Leiter 75 182.2 1997 34 PHI
63 William Van Landi 75 181.2 1996 25 SFG
64 Larry McWilliams 75 163.2 1980 26 ATL
65 Tony Cloninger 75 189.2 1969 28 CIN
66 Mike Maroth 75 193.1 2003 25 DET
67 Frank Tanana 75 176.1 1990 36 DET
68 Diego Segui 75 163 1965 27 KCA
69 Carlos Silva 75 180.1 2006 27 MIN
   5. Moscow Hiding In The Shadows Posted: January 17, 2008 at 01:03 PM (#2670430)
Wow, Vida Blue 1979 comes in second, the year after he was TSN's NL Pitcher of the Year and came in 3rd in the Cy Young vote.

And worst of all, Marty Keough 1982. Thank you, Billy Martin.
   6. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: January 17, 2008 at 01:21 PM (#2670444)
I prefer Michael Wolverton's support neutral stats for stuff like this. I suppose that you can also factor in defencse as well.
   7. Devin McCullen cries "Enraha!" Posted: January 17, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2670463)
Fair enough, but just remember not to go on Wolverton Mountain if you're looking for a wife.
   8. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 17, 2008 at 02:11 PM (#2670493)
3 HOFers on that list (and if Rik Aalbert makes it, it'll be 4)
   9. For the Turnstiles (andeux) Posted: January 17, 2008 at 02:12 PM (#2670498)
What a rough week for Matt Keough.
   10. RMc is the President of the United States Posted: January 17, 2008 at 05:03 PM (#2670628)
Wise's 4.55 ERA in '68 doesn't look too bad...until you realize it was in the Year of the Pitcher. In a neutral AL park in 2007, that's a painful 7.06. In Coors Field of 2000 it's an inhuman 9.79. Lord have mercy.
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