I love how the only person quoted in this article is the Yankees manager.

Wow. That AL Central is going to be tough. And if the Indians or As play well, the Yankees better watch out for the Wild Card, too.

What? Three other minor league pitchers? Do they think Willis is any good?

Tigers are going to sneak up and grab Haren as well with lesser prospects.

ESPN is reporting that the three minor league pitchers are Dallas Trahern, Euologio De La Cruz, and Burke Badenhop.

According to Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, Maybin is #1, De La Cruz was the Tigers' #7 prospect, and Trahern was # 11.

Miller would have ranked #3 (players under age 25) had he not used up his rookie eligibility.

whoa

What? Three other minor league pitchers? Do they think Willis is any good?

Well, his peripherals still aren't bad, and he was pitching in front of a historically awful defence. If he puts up a line like any year other than last year, then it's a darn good deal.

So the NL is pretty much Pujols and a bunch of midgets at this point, no?

I love how the Yankees' manager uses the term "has been" in describing Willis as if it is a good thing.

My only concern with Miguel is that he has put on, and this is a conservative estimate, 35 lbs since he came to the big leagues. He showed up this Spring Training and I would have sworn he was another 15 lbs heavier but seemed to shed about 10 of that come June. Playing in Florida has a few advantages.

You have to appreciate the talent. Setting aside Willis, a young man who hits like this is a rare thing.

this was the best Marlins could do? ugh...

Wow. I'm glad my guys don't play in the AL Central...

Supposedly Miguel has lost 15 pounds already this offseason.

Does Willis look better as the #3 pitcher that he will be for the Tigers?

Does it help Cabrera playing with more veterans in Detroit? What about the move from NL to the AL for both?

so... they turned down Howie Kendrick, Nick Adenhart and Jeff Mathis for Cabrera, but take this package for Cabrera AND Willis? I mean, I know Willis is overrated, but... what?

re: 14

I agree for the most part. It is almost as if they are treating Willis like dead weight. The particulars do not make any sense. If the deal is as described, I don't see why the Marlins did the deal.

I don't think the Marlins got enough for Cabrera, let alone with Willis thrown in. I could be way off, but I think Willis is undervalued (provided he's healthy). The Marlins defense was beyond terrible. The Marlins must really like Maybin.

I don't care too much for Miller, I think the Tigers did well to cash him in. They have Porcello in the wings anyway, and like I said, I like Willis better than most.

Dontrelle is one of the better hitting pitchers out there, so its a shame he is headed to the AL.

8 career HR, at least one in each of his 5 season. .234/.280/.359 career line.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/willido03.shtml

Miller = can't-miss stud
Maybin = may be stud

Kendrick = All-Star capable second baseman. (Marlins already got one)
Mathis = the new Gerald Laird
Adenhart = TINSTAAPP

I think the Marlins are banking on being able to have more attractive trade fodder in 2012 with Miller and Maybin than with the three Angels.

I don't think the Marlins got enough for Cabrera, let alone with Willis thrown in.

I think they definitely got enough for Cabrera. Four of the Tigers' top 12 prospects, and two other useful minor leaguers. That package is way better that whatever fast-diminishing package of beloved irreplaceable 24-year-old rookies the Red Sox fans here think would be fair for Santana.

As for Willis, I guess that when you're Jeff Loria, a non-star becomes dead weight whenever he starts making more than a million dollars a year. The Marlins management has different priorities from those we would like to see.

If a team drafts well, can draft aggressively due to financial resources, is adept at player evaluation AND is willing to spend to keep players it values that's a pretty potent combinatiion in the marketplace. The Tigers seem to have all those things and a trade like this is the result. An Andrew Miller might be too valuable for another team to part with but if you have option 1A and your personnel folks tell you he's just as good then you have options that other teams do not.

It's a bold move. And something not many teams can duplicate.

Well, his peripherals still aren't bad, and he was pitching in front of a historically awful defence. If he puts up a line like any year other than last year, then it's a darn good deal.

His peripherals were pretty bad last year. His HR rate shot up, his BB rate increased, and his K rate stayed the same. 5.09 FIP.

The Tigers will control him for 2 years. He made $6.5 million last year, so I'd guess he'll make around $20 million over the next two years in arbitration. Even if he's no better than average at run prevention, most competitive teams would jump to sign an average innings eater for 2/$20M.

Dontrelle is one of the better hitting pitchers out there, so its a shame he is headed to the AL.

The Tigers finally got the left-handed bat they've been lusting after.

How is Miller a can't miss stud and Adenhart is just TINSTAAPP? Serious question.

Is Miller really a can't-miss stud? I know his amateur pedigree is impeccable, but he didn't strike out nearly as many guys last year in the minors as I expected.

Kendrick = All-Star capable second baseman. (Marlins already got one)

They've just opened a hole at 3B and Uggla can play there. There's a reason they wanted Kendrick.

Miller is not a can't miss stud. He's never dominated at any level.

As a Tigers fan, I'm pretty excited by this deal, not so much weighing the "value" each side gave and got but because it shows that Dombrowski is going all out in 2008, while still obtaining young but proven talent -- though giving up young(er) and a bit less predictably strong talent.

With Cabrera (and Renteria) the Tigers stand a chance to keep their run production in the neighborhood of where it was last year, which was roughly 3rd in the major leagues. Ordonez is going to regress, Guillen is going to start tailing off, Sheff is a question mark, and IRod is fading fast both on offense and defense. I agree with the sentiment above (#15 and #26) about Miller. He may yet prove out but I think he's heading for major surgery unless he staightens out his motion. But even with Willis added, the Tigers still need another reliable starter. So it will be interesting to see if they continue dealing, and what they do with Inge (assuming Cabrera takes over 3B) who was one of the best-fielding third sackers in the league.

On the give-up, Leyland was pretty high on De la Cruz based on his limited play at the ML level last year. Maybin may yet be a star, but I think he's not ready for prime time yet and there may be some question about his arm despite the plus scouting ratings. I didn't see anything there in the games I watched with him in the field.

Can't wait to hear Ozzie's reaction.

Miller is really more of a groundballer than a strikeout guy, which doesn' bode well for him considering Florida's defense. When he's on he's sawing people off and punching out the odd lefty here and there. The problem thus far for him is that he has no third pitch and fairly terrible control.

Nevertheless, I think he's a can't miss pitcher in the sense that he will, in some capacity, be an effective big leaguer at some point. If he never reigns in the control or develops a change-up, he could still make it as a back of the bullpen reliever on the strength of his fastball/slider combo. Even barring that, his delivery and stuff will make him a lights-out lefty specialist in an absolutely worse case scenario.

Personally, I think he'll stick as a starter, but I doubt his upside is all that much higher than Willis'.

So Florida, which needs a CF, wouldn't take Milledge for Willis?

Anyone who questions this deal from the Marlins' side better remember one thing: Beinfest knows what he's doing on these sorts of trades. He knows which young -- and I mean really young, not Cabrera young -- talent to go for and which to disdain when he holds a fire sale. The Fish will suck in 2008, but I have no doubt this package of talent will end up paying significant dividends for Florida down the road. Detroit has pretty much emptied its minor league system for present value, and there is no guarantee that they will be able to resign Cabrera and (IMHO) little reason to believe they are going to want to resign Willis when the time comes. There is no way in the world I would have done this deal if I were Detroit, but then I believe in trying to build for long-term success, not a one-year wonder. The Tigers have locked themselves into a one-year-and-hope strategy. For their sake, I hope it works (and it very well might . . . .).

Miller is not a can't miss stud. He's never dominated at any level.

I don't think he's can't miss, but that's a strange criticism. He only has 13 career starts in the minors, with no more than 7 at any level.

And I'd say his 4 starts in AA were pretty dominant: 0.59 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

so... they turned down Howie Kendrick, Nick Adenhart and Jeff Mathis for Cabrera

I agree it seems like they should have/were offerd more. But that package ain't it, imo.

I'd prefer Maybin to Kendrick (and I really like Kendrick) based on the upside and defensive value. I grant that Kendrick is already productive and thus, a bit more of a sure thing. And I'd prefer Miller to Adenhart by a good bit as well. Adenhart is a solid pitching prospect, but Miller is a K/GB guy who might be an ace. Risky, sure...but still less so than a guy a couple levels below.

So, the question comes down to whether you value Mathis (I don't see him as more than a quality backup) and whether Willis for the remaining prospects is an adequate deal. I guess I think it probably is, mostly because I don't like Willis too much.

But I do wonder if someone wasn't willing to offer up a proven player and a couple upper-tier prospects somewhere along the way. Like, say, the Dodgers.

This is certainly an interesting trade, but I want Inge at 3rd base. The Tigers know how good his defense is; even if Cabrera gets thinner & quicker I can't believe he can match up with Inge at defense. Inge reminds me of Graig Nettles. You can win a championship with a guy like Graig Nettles. (OK, maybe Nettles hit better.) Is Renteria enough better defensively than Guillen is at short for it to work with Cabrera at 3rd? Is there any chance they will put Cabrera somewhere else (Left field?)

It'll be fascinating to see how Cabrera & Willis do over the next couple of years, out of Florida, with good support, etc. A person could love this team.

Sam gets it exactly right. Even if all six prospects end up being as good as Dontrelle Willis in 2011, the Tigers would make this trade. This is their year to win. 2006 they were unexpectedly good. 2007 they were unexpectedly bad. In 2009 a lot of their players will be leaving. It's all been leading up to this, ever since they embarked on the most drastic rebuilding project in living memory five years ago.

Primer Met fans would have been pretty upset about such a trade (Milledge for Willis), including me. It might have been worse than what they did; at least they got a decent starting outfielder.

You can gather that I think Willis is not much at this point.

This trade looks very good for Detroit. On the other hand, it seems the players the Marlins pick up in their firesales are always better than expected. So who knows...

Sure, I would have been upset. But not as upset as I am.

I don't think he's can't miss, but that's a strange criticism. He only has 13 career starts in the minors, with no more than 7 at any level.

And I'd say his 4 starts in AA were pretty dominant: 0.59 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Even at UNC people were waiting for him and Bard to dominate and while they showed flashes and did well at times, neither did as well as they were hyped to do coming out of high school. He's a good prospect because of his stuff, but he's not a can't miss guy. Maybin, Ks and groundballs and all, is the better prospect in the deal.

Nice to see Tigers' management being agressive. One can criticize trade for the relative value of the prospects and of Willis, but Cabrera is a hell of a hitter. So he's fat. Harmon Killibrew was fat. Babe Ruth was fat.

I think the Tigers just became my AL team.

I'm oscillating between excitement at having Cabrera and wonderment at gutting the farm system like this. Dombrowski knows what he's doing, too, but I sure wouldn't have done it.

Kendrick by himself is a better set than what the Tigers gave up.

Okay, this is the most insane thing I've seen on this site since the season ended. You mean the Howie Kendrick with 18 walks and 20 GIDPs in 636 career plate appearances? Get the heck out of here. Besides, the Marlins want players they can control for as long as possible. Kendrick has played 2 seasons already, and I wouldn't even call him a "proven player".

but Miller is a K/GB guy who might be an ace

I don't think Miller is THAT ahead of Adenhart.

This is hopelessly un-statistical of me, but I feel like Willis might rejuvenate a bit on a contender. It seems as though all of his best work has come in the midst of a legitimate race, and his lesser work came after the Marlins more or less threw it in.

Maybe all that herky jerkiness requires focus that only big games can bring out. Or something.

So if the Tigers come out and say Cabrera should just play left field for a season:

Batting line-up:

1. Granderson, CF
2. Polanco, 2B
3. Maggs, RF
4. Cabrera, LF
5. Sheffield, DH
6. Guillen, 1B
7. Renetira, SS
8. I-Rod, C
9. Inge, 3B

I guess I have no idea-with Jones and Thames on the bench for an extra OF/DH/1B

Miller is a K/GB guy who might be an ace

I don't see how his ability to spy for the Kremlin and shoot down fighter jets is relevant here.

His peripherals were pretty bad last year. His HR rate shot up, his BB rate increased, and his K rate stayed the same. 5.09 FIP.

It's only one stat, but . . .

2007 xFIP numbers, courtesy of THT, which theorizes that xFIP should predict future ERA better than FIP alone:

Carlos Zambrano - 4.65
Matt Cain - 4.66
Chris Young - 4.70
. . .
Oliver Perez - 4.74
Bronson Arroyo - 4.76
Dontrelle Willis - 4.76

That's some pretty good company.

I think rightly or wrongly, the perception of Angel's hitting prospects is being skewed by their minor league parks. And the fact that none of them hit the majors, and immediately set the world on fire is aiding it.
They have found talent in their minors. Willits looks a serviceable 4th OF, Kotchman is starting to put it together. Napoli had one great season out of nowhere.
But Macpherson and Kendrick's injury, and Wood's struggle at AAA has dented the image.

And I think this is an underwhelming package. Miller has always been a scout's favourite whose numbers haven't equaled the expectations. But he is young, and can improve. But an extreme GB pitcher in front of that defence. He better be strong mentally.
Maybin has many many question marks around him. The lack of power, GB tendencies and high K numbers. And as for the other crap they got, the pitchers in the Marlin's system look better. Unless the Marlins trade some of their pitching prospects for decent hitters, I don't see where this plan is leading.

EDIT : Now that I refreshed and read the thread, I seem to have repeated Fabia. Ouch :(
Never eat and post at the same time!

Sam:

One has to think the Tigers have the resources to sign Cabrera when the time comes. And they have a while to see firsthand to determine whether he is worth the big check he will most definitely be seeking.

I think the combination of that ballpark, in front of a defense a sight better than the Marlins and playing for a fairly smart organization have to give Dontrelle about as good a shot as any to get himself turned in the right direction.

That's a really right-hand heavy lineup.

I guess this means the Orioles can now move Tejada to the Angels, since Cabrera is off the table.

One has to think the Tigers have the resources to sign Cabrera when the time comes. And they have a while to see firsthand to determine whether he is worth the big check he will most definitely be seeking.

Cabrera is going to be able to see for himself that the Tigers are a team set for a big decline, with a decimated farm and an old team around him. They have the resources, but his spirit may not be willing to sign just because their body is able to put out the $$$. Plenty of other teams have dollars, too.

I think the combination of that ballpark, in front of a defense a sight better than the Marlins and playing for a fairly smart organization have to give Dontrelle about as good a shot as any to get himself turned in the right direction.

Willis is what he is: a solid, middle-rotation, reliable innings-eater. That is quite valuable. He is neither as bad as he looked in 2007, nor as aceish as he looked in 2005. The Tigers got something they'll be glad to have, but "turned in the right direction" doesn't mean he's going to be a guy they'll want to sign for big bucks. He won't move THAT far in the right direction.

It is, I just thought of it off the top of my head. I wonder if the Tigers will still try to go after Geoff Jenkins or not to play LF.

Even at UNC people were waiting for him and Bard to dominate and while they showed flashes and did well at times, neither did as well as they were hyped to do coming out of high school. He's a good prospect because of his stuff, but he's not a can't miss guy. Maybin, Ks and groundballs and all, is the better prospect in the deal.

I definitely agree Maybin's the better prospect. He was a consensus top 10 prospect last year, and he did nothing to detract from that in 2007. Silver has him projected as an average CF in 2008 as a 21 year old, though with limited potential because of his K rate.

Miller was a consensus top 20 prospect last year (BA had him 10th, Goldstein had him 17th). He struggled in the majors, but fatigue could have been a factor. He had a 3.18 ERA and .678 OPS against through his first 8 starts, but got hammered with an 11.57 ERA and 1.110 OPS against in his last 5 starts. He had never made more than 18 starts in a season before, and those last 5 starts were his 22nd-25th of the season.

The farm was trash when Dombroski came in and since then has been able to trade for Sheffield, Renetira, and now him and Willis. The Tigers are not afraid to spend money to improve as well. Cabrera might not stay, but I have a feeling the Tigers re-sign him to a monster deal.

Cabrera is going to be able to see for himself that the Tigers are a team set for a big decline, with a decimated farm and an old team around him

Of course, he may have trouble seeing all that past the big rock on his World Series ring :)

Sam:

Well, good teams have a plan and when you have a guy who can be a centerpiece you figure it out and don't pull a Sabean or a Jocketty where you expect your big gun to cover a host of sins.

And if he leaves the Tigers get some picks and like I wrote earlier, they seem to know what they are doing come draft time.

Sure there is risk. But better you risk it for a guy on a HOF path than some piddling deals to land a catcher that you can't give away or a platoon outfielder.

Ahem.................

It's only one stat, but . . .

2007 xFIP numbers, courtesy of THT, which theorizes that xFIP should predict future ERA better than FIP alone:

Carlos Zambrano - 4.65
Matt Cain - 4.66
Chris Young - 4.70
. . .
Oliver Perez - 4.74
Bronson Arroyo - 4.76
Dontrelle Willis - 4.76

That's some pretty good company.

I don't get your point. Are you saying those pitchers are all bad, or that single season xFIP doesn't mean much?

I, for one, am very concerned about Maybin's strikeout rate. The guy struck out 83 times in 296 at bats at high-A last year. That's a high strikeout rate anywhere, but at high-A ball for someone who's supposed to be close to Major League ready, that really stands out to me.

Looks like Kenny Williams is going to have another season of him being called a dumbass on his hands, and the NL just got a little bit easier for the Cubs. Woo-hoo!

As for the trade, Beinfest was/is a shred GM who usely did a good job of eye balling talent. I know he got bumped up but I have a feeling he wouldn't let Hill fly solo on this one.

I would bet on the prospects making this look good for the Marlins. they have the track record to back up the trade.

The Marlins had the second lowest payroll in MLB last opening day, and they just shed half of it. That's right, half of their payroll is gone in one fell swoop. A real commissioner might think about using those best interests of baseball powers.

A real commissioner might think about using those best interests of baseball powers.


What?! rap his good friend , Loria, on the knuckles! No way.
I bet Selig gives a speech saying how the people of Florida were responsible for this by not building them a new stadium, and thats why the Marlins had to shed payroll.

And do what? The Marlins have won the World Series twice so far in ten years. I think the Marlins have a better track record for knowing what they are doing then Bud Selig does.

Sure there is risk. But better you risk it for a guy on a HOF path than some piddling deals to land a catcher that you can't give away or a platoon outfielder.

Ahem.................

You gotta be cruel to be kind, HW. But could you please stop killing me with kindness? Please?

I can't get on Detroit for giving up the farm. That's the equivalent of saying that the fewer prospects you have, the more each one is worth. I don't think that's true. At the end of the day, they traded these two guys (I am not considering the others besides Miller and Maybin to be significant...), they're as good as they are, and the trade stands or falls based on that. Having 19 other good prospects wouldn't make Miller and Maybin any worse, and having only one other good prospect doesn't make them any better.

The simpler and probably more compelling way that this isn't "giving up the farm" is that Cabrera himself is no older than many prospects!

And yet the Marlins are still more honorable than the Pirates, in a one-eyed-king-among-the-blind kind of way. At least the Marlins are forthright about refusing to pay another dime than absolutely necessary for anything and wishing only to maximize their profits at all costs.

Of course the trade could bite them in the rear, but I'd be pinching myself in Detroit right now. I can't imagine any team that would be more fun to follow as a lifelong fan over the past few years. To suffer through the long winter and then see the last stretch and then pick this up in the offseason...it's got to be fun.

I don't get your point. Are you saying those pitchers are all bad, or that single season xFIP doesn't mean much?

You used FIP in the context of a discussion regarding Willis' likely future performance. I was pointing out the existence of a stat that purports to correlate to future performance more closely than the one you used and that happens to paint a rosier picture, both numerically and anecdotally (i.e., by proximity to a seemingly talented group of peers). I have no view on the actual predictive power of a single-season xFIP figure, but if pressed I would guess it's greater than that of its FIP counterpart.

Hopefully this works out better then the last time the Tigers sent six young players to a team...of course that was Randy Smith and the player we got back was Juan Gone.

That's a really right-hand heavy lineup.

Such are the perils of having one of the two best lineups in the majors.

I think they definitely got enough for Cabrera. Four of the Tigers' top 12 prospects, and two other useful minor leaguers.

I don't really understand the logic of evaluating prospects based on how they rank in an organization's system, as opposed to how they rank on an absolute scale. At least not in the context of assessing a trade. (From the Marlins' perspective, who cares if Maybin is the Tigers' top prospect or their 5th best? It only matters how good he is.) Maybin for example seems kind of raw. Just 79 PAs above A+ ball.

That package is way better that whatever fast-diminishing package of beloved irreplaceable 24-year-old rookies the Red Sox fans here think would be fair for Santana.

Agreed on this point. Ellsbury appears wildly overrated to me. Power and platoon issues. He can probably start in the majors but I'm unconvinced he's likely to be a star. It's tough to be Johnny Damon, let alone Ichiro.

I guess this means the Orioles can now move Tejada to the Angels, since Cabrera is off the table.

Apparently the Orioles have asked for Wood and Saunders. Seems fair to me.

Maybin and Miller were top 10 prospects last year by Baseball America. They are probably not top 10 going into 2008 (though Maybin might still be).

You know what else just occurred to me? The Twins pretty much have to unload Johan Santana now. Their chances of finishing 2008 ahead of the Indians or the Tigers, even with Santana, are approaching zero.

Call me a Kendrick apologist and I know we all love him. I just want to speak about him. I think sometimes we here at primer too often pray at the church of walks. Kendrick is simply a CRAZY good hitter. He will hit over .300 for his career and win batting titles. In fact, I sort of like that he doesn't walk as a young player. He has young player skills! The walks may never come. I think he may be a Clemente type hitter; high contact, low walks, low k's line drive machine.
He looks like a mini-Sheffield out there.
His minor league hitting numbers are off the charts. 1500 ab's and near .360 BA. That can't be taught. Sure, he could end up being Bill Madlock, but so what. If he can stick at 2nd he'll be crazy valuable.

Kendrick's ceiling is more like Tony Gwynn Lite or Plump Brett Butler, not Clemente/Guerrero. (Power is the difference.) Yes, he's an excellent young hitter and figures to get even better, but no, he really isn't likely to be an MVP-caliber player at his peak, because the OBP and power are just not quite there. Like Gwynn, he'll probably always be overrated by 50% of observers and underrated by 25%.

And he should stick at second; he seems like a reasonable, maybe even above average second baseman. So yes, he has a good chance to be the kind of player that's a contributing regular on a championship team. I like his future, and I definitely would have taken the Angels' package over what the Marlins got from the Tigers, if that package (Kendrick/Mathis/Adenhart) was ever really on the table.

Right handed, left handed, whatever, that line up is going to do some damage. And with Dontrelle demoted from presumptive Ace to innings-eating No. 3 pitcher, the rotation does not look too bad, either.

Detroit is going to be a fun team next year.

Ellsbury appears wildly overrated to me. Power and platoon issues.

Sounds like somebody is wildly overreacting to 113 AB at AAA, because Ellsbury has hit LHP very well everywhere else he has been. And nobody (other than Kevin) said he had any power. How is saying that he's an incredibly fast baserunner with a .360-.380 OBP and good CF defense "wildly overrating him"?

That package is way better that whatever fast-diminishing package of beloved irreplaceable 24-year-old rookies the Red Sox fans here think would be fair for Santana.

You bet your booty it is! Red Sox fans aren't interested in offering a fair deal for Santana. They would rather he went somewhere else. Like the West Coast. Or the National League. Or Japan. Anywhere but Yankee Stadium. I'm amazed that nobody seems interested in putting together a better package. Hughes plus Cabrera is every bit as much a lowball deal as what the Red Sox are offering.

If he can stick at 2nd he'll be crazy valuable.

You mean sorta like that Cano fella?

BTW, people called me crazy a month ago when I suggested that Cabrera and Willis might be traded together.

Apparently, I'm in the minority, but I think the Marlins did fantastically on this deal. They obtained two bona fide grade A prospects. The Twins are having a hard time getting one in return for the best pitcher in baseball. Toss in a couple of live arms who make the prospect lists and a couple of other guys who I've never heard of and what can you complain about?

Maybin is an extraordinary prospect. I really don't think there is anything in his record to be concerned about. He's always had great tools. He's hit .310 in the minor leagues. He walks at an excellent rate. Sure he strikes out a bit much, but I don't think this will be an issue for a guy like Maybin who can hit for average and has patience. And his power will come - he's 20 and has good size. He's not perfect yet, but I don't think he is far out of Jay Bruce's or Justin Upton's league.

As far as Miller is concerned, I'm not a huge fan, but the scouts love him and I'll defer to the general consensus. Bottom line is that he is a highly valued commodity.

The Marlins got two guys who project to be core players on their next World Championship team and a bunch of other guys with a chance. That's a pretty good return for the last two arbitration years of a great hitter who can't field and an overrated innings eater.

BTW, people called me crazy a month ago when I suggested that Cabrera and Willis might be traded together.

Don't make too much of that. People call you crazy all the time. The Cabrera and Willis thing was just an excuse to repeat it.

He looks like a mini-Sheffield out there.

Kendrick was 23 this year and hit .322/.347/.450, for a 108 OPS+ with 24 doubles and 5 home runs in 338 ABs. 7 unintentional walks.

At age 23 Sheffield hit .330/.385/.580 in a much lower run environment, good for a 170 OPS+ with 34 doubles and 33 home runs in 494 at bats. 43 unintentional walks.

There is simply no comparison between them as hitters. It's not just the "church of walks." It's the church of power also.

Well, sure, Srul. But they were very specific about the idea itself being crazy.

He said he looks like a mini-Sheffield; he didn't say he hits like a mini-Sheffield.

They obtained two bona fide grade A prospects. The Twins are having a hard time getting one in return for the best pitcher in basebal

Is the "best pitcher in baseball" is probably not as valuable a commodity as an every-day position player/hitter like Cabrera.

He said he looks like a mini-Sheffield

So what does that mean, exactly? Does Kendrick also have that unstable glare in his eyes? Is he also on the final ballot for the Very Last Baseball Player on Earth You'd Want to Hit With a Pitch Award?

Google Images says he looks like someone else...

They obtained two bona fide grade A prospects. The Twins are having a hard time getting one in return for the best pitcher in basebal

Is the "best pitcher in baseball" is probably not as valuable a commodity as an every-day position player/hitter like Cabrera

It appears that prospect-level players are at a premium value this winter, capable of bringing in return the Cabreras and Santanas of the league. This would be a good time to trade for the superstars. Hence, I think Beinfest did as well as he could have given his leverage.

All this makes me hate Omar that much more.

The problem with Kendrick is that it's harder to be valuable you make a ton of outs. If he hits 360 it doesn't matter how many walks he draws, that's true...but if he hits 310 or so it does and that's more likely.

I really do like watching him hit, though.

Also, I'm unclear who disagreed that Maybin was the better prospect in the deal...I don't think anyone has suggested that.

All this makes me hate Omar that much more.

I am not sure it is possible to hate Omar any more than we do already.

Is the "best pitcher in baseball" is probably not as valuable a commodity as an every-day position player/hitter like Cabrera.

I love Cabrera, but he gives back a fair bit of value in the field. I think Santana is the better player.

I love how the only person quoted in this article is the Yankees manager.

And Leyland. And Francona.

And Leyland. And Francona.

In fairness to the initial poster, the article has been updated since it first went up. Originally it only quoted Girardi. Leyland, Francona, Willis, and teammates were all added later.

So, as of right now, there's every chance that the top-4 teams in payroll will all be in the AL. Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers.

It's also the "church of not striking out much." And the "church of value other than hitting seeing-eye grounders."

Maybin is significantly ahead of Kendrick, and Miller is significantly better than Nick Adenhart. Plus there are several other valuable prospects in that package.

Anything could happen to Kendrick, but I personally am not that high on him. I don't think he will be a .320 hitter in the majors - I think he'll be a .300 hitter with a year or two above .320. His plate discipline is poor, he strikes out much more than most high average hitters, and he hasn't shown much power at the major league level yet. Sure, he killed the ball in the minors, but so did Jeff Mathis and Brandon Wood and Dallas McPherson and Sean Rodriguez and Casey Kotchman and Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales. Is it so much to ask that ONE of these guys actually hits worth a damn in the majors? (Kotchman had a pretty good season last year, finally). In summary, I think the bearish case of Kendrick (which isn't really "anti-Kendrick", but rather is "anti-Kendrick as the best player in a deal for Miguel Cabrera") is not just "Howie doesn't walk enough" but rather "Howie will lose a lot of value if he can't hit .330 because he doesn't walk and because he probably doesn't have as much power as his untranslated minor league statistics suggest."

It's a shame that the Marlins will be so awful next year, and I personally would love to see Cabrera stay in the NL because I love watching him hit. But this is a very good deal for them, and about what I expected. I'm sure a Sox fan will explain why a Coco Crisp/Jed Lowrie package is superior to this one.

Well, Willis's peripherals still aren't bad, and he was pitching in front of a historically awful defence. If he puts up a line like any year other than last year, then it's a darn good deal.

Three year trends.

Hits allowed......213, 234, 241

Home runs allowed.....11, 21, 29

BB allowed......55, 83, 87

K's......170, 160, 146


The cause of all this. He was overworked at to young an age.

197 IP at age 22, 236 IP at age 23, 224 IP at age 24.....this is sick. Even worse than the abuse Mulder, Hudson, and Zito endured.

I think that there is any guarantee that Willis will ever be a top-notch pitcher again. Now the Tigers have two over-worked younp pitchers with damaged arms - Bonderman and Willis. It will be interesting to see how these two guys pitch in the next couple of seasons.

Also, I'm unclear who disagreed that Maybin was the better prospect in the deal...I don't think anyone has suggested that.

Post 17 set me off. I felt there were some unfair characterizations there.

So, as of right now, there's every chance that the top-4 teams in payroll will all be in the AL. Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers.

Will this move really spike the Tigers into the top 4? Last I checked they were 9th or 10th. Possible, I'm sure, just curious.

Bonderman has been overworked? Tigers have kept him on a leash I thought, unless young pitchers cannot go over 150 innings pitched.

OK, I have had some time to process that this trade has, in fact, actually happened.

Here's my $.02:

This is not a typical "cash in prospects for big star" type deal. Not when the star in question not only one of the three best hitters in baseball, but entering his AGE-25 SEASON. You don't pass up the chance to get a HOF-quality bat entering his prime years.

The Tigers as an "old team in decline" is a bit overstated. Granderson, Cabrera, Verlander, Bonderman, are a good young core, with lots of talent surrounding them. This is more of a win now trade, but was there any more valuable bat to get for the future? Maybin hopefully was that bat. Cabrera almost certainly is. How does that hurt us in the future? As long as DD stays aggressive at the draft table, the system can be quickly restocked.
I also think we overvalue prospects here a bit.

Now, yes, I think we gave up a lot, especially with Beinfest's eye for talent. A lot more than what the Angels were offering, BTW. But I think that you absolutely have to make this move. HOF-quality bats at age 24 in a trade come along what, once every 20 years?

As a Tigers fan, I can't believe we made this trade. This isn't what we do...
Remember the posters after the Ordonez and Pudge signings saying the Tigers should have used that money to rebuild the system? Since then they did, and won a bolt-of-lightning pennant, threw away a WS, had two of the greatest individual seasons in my lifetime, acted like the Yankees at the draft table, and cashed in a bunch of chips for Cabrera and Willis. It's been one helluva ride so far. I can't wait till April.

Mags-15
Sheff-14
Pudge-13
Guillen-12
Renteria-9
Bonderman-8.5
Rogers-8.0
Cabrera, Willis~18
Jones-7.0
Inge-6.2
Jones-5.0
Polanco-4.6


That's 120 million right there.