It's also the "church of not striking out much." And the "church of value other than hitting seeing-eye grounders."

Maybin is significantly ahead of Kendrick, and Miller is significantly better than Nick Adenhart. Plus there are several other valuable prospects in that package.

Ironic.

Granted, I'm not sure if it is this the Michael Kay ironic or the real kind.

Bonderman threw 234 innings in 2006. While 20 of those came in the playoffs, they still count. Hopefully he'll rebound in 2008.

Brilliant trade by the Tigers. I am very surprised that this was the best the Marlins could do for Miguel Cabrera. Very surprised.

I like the deal. It's listed as six players that we sent to Florida, but I only care about four of them. If an organization can't find Mike Rabelo's replacement, they have a serious problem. Blake Badenhop looked great in Rookie ball as a 23 year old, and had crummy peripherals in the pitching friendly Midwest League last year; I think the chances of him coming back to haunt us are slim. A lot of people like Dallas Trahern, but I can't figure out what the excitement is about. I do like Eulogio de la Cruz. Miller will be great if he can find the strikezone and another pitch. Maybin I like a lot, of course.

Still, I really like what they got. They have a bunch of options with Cabrera, though I like the left field idea. I also have no problem with seeing if he's really lost a bunch of weight and only moving him off third if he makes it clear he has to.

I don't think that this is a "Win in 2008" move at all. It looks more like a "Win in 2008 or 2009" move, with the potential to resign the guys just acquired.

the NL just got a little bit easier for the Cubs.

Yeah--maybe they'll actually beat the Marlins once next year.

I can't believe they dealt Cabrera and Willis together. This is a great deal for the Tigers. The Marlins sounded like they had way better deals lined up. Then again, maybe they got another couple Hanleys in there.

Wait a second, Fabian. Am I the one who compared Kendrick with Sheffield? I certainly wouldn't compare Maybin with Sheff.

Maybin is going to hit for a lot more power than Kendrick will, and he'll be a lot faster. Maybe he'll be a better defender - that's tough to tell. All in all, he's a better player because he has better physical tools, a better eye, and more impressive age-relative performance in tougher leagues and parks.

Is he Gary Sheffield at the same age? Hell no. He's not particularly close. But he's still a great prospect.

---

All that said (and including my above post), I absolutely support the Tigers making this move. If you're going to give up prospects the caliber of Miller and Maybin, what better type of player to get in return than a) a hitter b) who is under 25 c) and has a significant history of outstanding performance. Sure, you wish he was a gold glover, but you can't have everything.

one thing i don't get. many, many sox fans have denigrated cabrera's status as a "star" or "elite" player because of his bat. I haven't checked to be sure, but aren't these the same folks who refuse to believe that Manny could be worse than a certain threshold? Why doesn't that apply to Cabrera as well, who while no Brooks Robinson is markedly better than a Ryan Braun or a Wes Helms?

The Tigers have locked themselves into a one-year-and-hope strategy.

I really don't think so. Cabrera, Granderson and all those young pitchers are as good a young core as any team really. They're clearly willing to spend and they'll have a lot of money coming off the books in the next few years (Guillen, Renteria, IRod, Ordonez, Polanco). I don't know how deep their system is but they still have 7 of their top 11 prospects around. Looks like a team that can quickly reload.

Now if Cabrera decides he'd rather play elsewhere ...

Kendrick

Kendrick hit 400 on-contact last year and still hit "just" 322. He's got the worst walk-rate I've ever seen. He K's about 1 per 5.5 AB -- not bad these days but not close to Guerrero or Sheffield (about 1 per 8.5) and light years from Gwynn (about 1 per 21). That K-rate means it will be very difficult for him to maintain a BA over 300 ... and with that walk rate, he'd better hit for some power.

Really, the unrealistic hope is he develops power to become Soriano -- not Vlad and certainly not Sheff (more BBs than Ks). Corey Patterson with 40-50 points of BA (and therefore OBP) is probably a reasonable projection -- that's about as productive as he was in 2007. Now this could all change and he could greatly reduce the Ks and/or greatly increase the walks or start hitting the ball as hard as Soriano -- but those don't strike me as very likely. Still, Patterson plus 40-50 points of BA is an 800ish OPS which is nice in a 2B but it's far from "oh my god, they better not trade this guy."

Wait a second, Fabian. Am I the one who compared Kendrick with Sheffield? I certainly wouldn't compare Maybin with Sheff.

Maybin is going to hit for a lot more power than Kendrick will, and he'll be a lot faster. Maybe he'll be a better defender - that's tough to tell. All in all, he's a better player because he has better physical tools, a better eye, and more impressive age-relative performance in tougher leagues and parks.

Is he Gary Sheffield at the same age? Hell no. He's not particularly close. But he's still a great prospect.

Maybin's a great prospect, I agree. I just thought it was ironic you were criticizing Kendrick for hitting seeing eye grounders and striking out too much when...that's exactly what Maybin has been doing at the minor league level it seems.

Walt, that about sums up how I feel about Kendrick. I certainly see the upside there and wouldn't be all that surprised if he does turn out better than I expect - I just wouldn't want to have to count on it, e.g. because I traded a hall of famer for him.

Maybin's a great prospect, I agree. I just thought it was ironic you were criticizing Kendrick for hitting seeing eye grounders and striking out too much when...that's exactly what Maybin has been doing at the minor league level it seems.

I see your point, but I'd say that I wasn't so much criticizing Kendrick for those things as using them to differentiate him from Sheffield. The "church" comments were meant to be in parallel to the "church of walks" comment above that implied the only thing differentiating Sheff from Kendrick was the number of BBs each took.

Perhaps you're right and I'm over-rating Maybin.

This is going to be a relatively small benefit to the Tigers in 2008 is my guess - maybe two wins better. I suspect a bit less.

Oh, and Andrew Miller will have a comparable ERA this year to Dontrelle.

How can Marlins fans not like this? Maybin and Miller are awesome, and have tons and tons of service time left, plus 4 other useful players in the haul. Miller is a power throwing lefty that could thrive in the NL. He's not a can't miss, but he has some serious serious upside. He just walked too many this year.

Google Images says he looks like someone else...

Cool. Kendrick looks like former Angel great 2B Bobby Grinch.

As to those who think Maybin is a future superstar but love to bash Angel prospects - you can't have it both ways. As I pointed out earlier, Maybin has struck out at a higher percentage than Brandon Wood in his minor league career. Also more in his short major league career.

Bonderman has been overworked? Tigers have kept him on a leash I thought, unless young pitchers cannot go over 150 innings pitched.

Bonderman threw 234 innings (including post-season) in 2006 at age 23. This is far too many for somebody at that age, especially for a guy who's previous high was 189 IP.

The negative impact of this was very apparent in 07. His K-rate dropped by 12%, and his HR-rate increased by 57%. His ERA trend from May to Sept in 07 is as follows - 2.66, 4.99, 5.31, 6.05, 12.15. Not too promising.

I don't expect to see anything of a productive nature from Bonderman for a while. Surgery may in fact be necessary to get back to form.

For all the crap Maybin takes for his K rate, it's was nearly identical to Jay Bruce's in the FSL last year:

Maybin: 83 Ks in 350 PA = 23.7%
Bruce: 67 Ks in 298 PA = 22.5%

And that wasn't a fluke for Bruce, as he was at 27.0% at AA and 23.5% in AAA in 2007, and 21.3% in the Midwest League in 2006.

I think Willis could have a bounce back year depending on who plays third. If Cabrera moves to a corner OF spot and Inge plays 3rd, Willis will be pitching in front of a much improved defense from last season.

I agree with kwarren.

Perhaps you're right and I'm over-rating Maybin.

I'm not say you're overrating him. I just thought it was funny you mentioned the two things that are the biggest knocks against him while you were actually talking him up as superior to someone else (not that he ISN'T superior to that guy). To me it was like reading that Jeter is better than Player X because Player X is a shitty defender and has overrated intangibles.

For all the crap Maybin takes for his K rate, it's was nearly identical to Jay Bruce's in the FSL last year:

Maybin: 83 Ks in 350 PA = 23.7%
Bruce: 67 Ks in 298 PA = 22.5%

And that wasn't a fluke for Bruce, as he was at 27.0% at AA and 23.5% in AAA in 2007, and 21.3% in the Midwest League in 2006.

Why would you use K/PA when evaluating hitters?

For all the crap Maybin takes for his K rate, it's was nearly identical to Jay Bruce's in the FSL last year:

Maybin: 83 Ks in 350 PA = 23.7%
Bruce: 67 Ks in 298 PA = 22.5%

Nice try Danny.
IsoP : Bruce - 261, Maybin - 181

EDIT : Maybin has insane GB % ( 60% in the low minors ). Low LD% ( 10% ). Its very hard to succeed with those kind of peripherals.

AROM, if Maybin doesn't improve his K-rate, he probably won't be a good major league hitter (unless he transmogrifies into Ryan Howard). I think he'll get better in that respect.

A lot of the "Angels prospects hate", from my standpoint at least, is more frustration than anything else. As a naive stathead, I fell in love with Dallas McPherson and Jeff Mathis after reading a prospectus annual that told me how good they were. Later, Morales and Aybar and Wood and Kotchman and Kendrick. You'd think out of that group, you'd have had more success by now.

I think the issue with Angels prospects is less a strikeout thing (although that MAY point to McP and Wood's struggles) than a park/league thing. Similar to d-backs hitting prospects, actually (thanks again, BPro!).

Anyway, IMHO Maybin is not even close to ready for the bigs yet. I think he needs a full season as a Mudcat in order to work on pitch recognition and defense. Ironically enough, on some thread I suggested that the Tigers should trade him to the Marlins for Dontrelle. Shows what I know :)

Why would you use K/PA when evaluating hitters?

I'm not sure I understand your point. Are you arguing that strikeout rate isn't relevant when evaluating prospects?

I'm not sure I understand your point. Are you arguing that strikeout rate isn't relevant when evaluating prospects?

You would use K/PA when evaluating pitchers and K/AB when evaluating hitters. It makes sense to me intuitively at least.

Nice try Danny.
IsoP : Bruce - 261, Maybin - 181

Oh, I agree that Bruce is the better prospect. I've just seen a bunch of people (including Nate Silver today, who seemed to be saying Maybin's behind Bruce b/c of the K rate) take a shot a Maybin's K rate. I just looked at the FSL and was surprised to see Bruce was right there with Maybin.

Why would you use K/PA when evaluating hitters?

To see what the likelihood of them striking out is when they come to the plate.

To expand on what I said earlier...

With hitters you're concerned with the ability to make contact when trying to make contact. K/PA puts noise in the numbers by adding a bunch of times when the hitter isn't actually trying to make contact...if that makes any sense. Here's hoping someone more eloquent or less tired than I comes along to clean this up.

This deal was made for several reasons:

First, FLA wanted booty for both Cabrera and Willis in the same package, not uncoupled. The Angels had no place for Willis, who isn't much - if any - better than Jon Garland now, particularly in the AL.

Second, they wanted a stud CF prospect - Maybin - more than they did a stud 2B prospect. CF is the tougher position to fill, and Maybin is a better prospect. I say this as an Angel fan.

Third, as has been noted throughout the week, they wanted more than one pitcher for this deal - and they got three of them from DET.

Fourth, the Marlins were probably irritated at Moreno for his public criticisms.

Fifth, the Tigers literally "bet the farm" on this deal. They need to win over the next two seasons, and if they experience any significant injuries over this time, they could be in a world of hurt, because they have few ready-to-step-in players and pitchers. Only two players in their starting lineup are under 30, and one of them - Cabrera - could well be a free agent in two years. They have an extremely short window, after which they could well be a less-than-.500 team...

This is going to be a relatively small benefit to the Tigers in 2008 is my guess - maybe two wins better. I suspect a bit less.

Really? I suspect a bit more. Like around 2.046 wins better, maybe 2.051 if he shows up to camp in good condition.
Actually, I think you are talking out your ass based on no evidence, and misreading the demonstrated abilities of the key player in this trade.

With hitters you're concerned with the ability to make contact when trying to make contact. K/PA puts noise in the numbers by adding a bunch of times when the hitter isn't actually trying to make contact...if that makes any sense. Here's hoping someone more eloquent or less tired than I comes along to clean this up.

People usually talk about K/AB to show that a player's BA is limited because they strike out so much and no one has a .400 BABIP. That's fine.

But, as we all know, OBP is much more indicative of value than BA. Looking at K/PA shows us that while a player may strike out a bunch, they can still post a good OBP.

Actually, I think you are talking out your ass based on no evidence, and misreading the demonstrated abilities of the key player in this trade.

You're mistaken about the no evidence claim. I may be misreading the ability of the key player however, but of course, there's the rub.

I assume you saw my post on the other thread laying out my case, so explain to me, why am I wrong?

People usually talk about K/AB to show that a player's BA is limited because they strike out so much and no one has a .400 BABIP. That's fine.

But, as we all know, OBP is much more indicative of value than BA. Looking at K/PA shows us that while a player may strike out a bunch, they can still post a good OBP.

This is overvaluing walks though. Walking isn't THAT important at the minor league level and definitely a secondary concern to making contact as measured by K/AB.

My quick reading of the guys Florida got strictly based off the numbers I see, since most of these guys I haven't heard of before...

Maybin is the key to the deal-20 years old and can hit like crazy and run like the wind too.

The other guys don't look all that hot to me tho:

Miller seems to be Lester-Lite, with wildly inconsistent control. Yeah if he does this, and if he does that, but right now doesn't look all that great.

Rabelo is a 27 year old career minor league catcher, with a 6-41 BB/K ratio last year, his first significant playing time in the majors. Throw in.

Of the 3 AA pitchers, I see 2 with mediocre strikeout numbers (Trahern & Badenhop). Only De la Cruz, with a solid 37/82 BB/K ratio in 104 innings, looks like a real prospect to me.

And people are still saying Boston's offer of Lowrie, Lester, and Masterson for Santana is an inferior deal (leaving Willis out of it)??!? I'd be willing to bet right now that Lester and Masterson have significantly better careers than any of these 4 pitchers, and I am still sold on Lowrie. Even if Raybin turns out to be lights-out, I dunno if I make this deal if I'm Florida.

bibgon-

As to no evidence, I was mostly referring to your 'two wins' projection. I just think it's wildly underestimating the upgrade provided by the trade, and there are so many unknown factors at this time, most importantly, who plays where. To predict a two win or less improvement is premature, and I would submit, impossible.

Also, I think that you, and others, are overplaying the 'win now' aspect of this trade. Acquiring a 24-year old player with not just elite offensive ability, but demonstrated HOF-level production to this point is a move that serves needs now and in the future. Lots of prospects don't pan out; the Tigers need more position prospects whether they add Cabrera or not. You add Cabrera.

Thanks for your civil reply to what was an intemperate response on my part. I will look in more detail at your case against Cabrera; I think it was lost in my quickly reading the many posts after the deal. From what I remember, I am much higher on MC than you, but I'd be interested in discussing it further.

And people are still saying Boston's offer of Lowrie, Lester, and Masterson for Santana is an inferior deal (leaving Willis out of it)??!? I'd be willing to bet right now that Lester and Masterson have significantly better careers than any of these 4 pitchers, and I am still sold on Lowrie. Even if Raybin turns out to be lights-out, I dunno if I make this deal if I'm Florida.

Because it is. It's much better. Miller's stuff is so ridiculously good that the leading theory for why he wasn't a more dominant amateur/minor league pitcher is that he gets bored from lack of competition. Lester is a better pitcher right now, but Miller has a ton more talent. Eulogio De La Cruz is purported to throw 100 MPH, but I'm not really that big on him. Trahern's K rate concerns me, but he's succeeded in spite of it and his sinker is supposed to be pretty special. Badenhop, same story but less so.

You would use K/PA when evaluating pitchers and K/AB when evaluating hitters. It makes sense to me intuitively at least.

I don't disagree. I just wasn't sure if you were trying to make a broader point.

Looking at K/PA shows us that while a player may strike out a bunch, they can still post a good OBP.

Well, kinda. Depends on how much you K and how awesome you are when you hit it.

Rob Deer's the extreme case. He hit the ball pretty hard (345/695) but K'd a ton. That resulted in a 220 career BA. Add a ton of walks and that still amounted to a below-average 324 OBP.

Mark Bellhorn is similar -- 230 BA and 341 OBP which is league-average. Russ Branyan 229/327.

Adam Dunn is the counterpoint to those two as he walks a massive amount and Ks a little less -- 248/381. Ryan Howard is threatening history on-contact.

Those are all pretty extreme on K-rates. As you move back towards reasonable, things can improve greatly of course. Grady Sizemore Ks about 1 per 4 AB the last couple seasons and is around 280/380.

Anyway, BA is the biggest component of OBP and if you're going to K so much that hitting 250-260 is about the best you can do, then even adding 100 points of walks takes you up to a nice but hardly outstanding OBP.

I'm agnostic on K/PA vs K/AB ... I tend to use K/AB because they're on the same line at b-r. :-)

Now the big one ... the Florida Marlins firesale history ...

The first fire sale really returned very little in the end. They got nothing back for Alou, White, Conine, Nen, and Dennis Cook. They got Derrek Lee for Kevin Brown and Burnett for Leiter. Bonilla, Sheffield and Charles Johnson turned into Preston Wilson. They managed to lose Randy Winn, Scott Podsednik and Roosevelt Brown in expansion, minor-league and rule 5 drafts which seems odd for a rebuilding team focussing on young talent.

After 98 they traded Renteria for not much. In mid-99, they traded Mantei for Penny.

Obviously Lee, Burnett and Penny were big parts of their 2003 WS team and Wilson was part of the Pierre deal. But they traded off almost their entire starting lineup and about half the pitching staff to do it. It could be all those other guys were good prospects but that's just a cautionary tale about prospect trades.

There wasn't much of a fire sale after 2003. Penny and Lee for essentially nothing in the long-run. Redman for nothing. Lots of FAs (not sure if they all generated draft picks or not). Castillo, Lowell and Gonzalez were kept around for a good while -- Beckett & Lowell of course eventually becoming Hanley Ramirez. The Castillo trade hasn't turned into anything yet. Penny, Lee, Castillo, Lowell and Beckett for Hanley -- he's good, not that good.

Oh yeah, how could I forget the Pierre trade? Obviously that can't hurt them. :-) The Delgado trade wasn't a fire sale trade ... and it hasn't paid off that well yet.

Their major finds in other organizations are Jacobs, Uggla, and Ramirez and they gave up substantial talent for all but Uggla. Maybe Willis -- can't remember if that was Dombrowski or Beinfest. Nice track record and admittedly there was substantial doubt about all of those guys which suggests maybe they do find some diamonds in the rough. But it's still not clear they'll win those trades in production terms (in terms of money, obviously they won).

The Marlins under both regimes have had an odd history of mutliple flipping resulting in not very much. Sheffield et al for Piazza and Zeile who became Preston Wilson. Lee for Choi, packaged with Penny to produce (mainly) LoDuca who became essentially nothing. The whole Wilson, Pierre, Hampton shuffle -- that I think they actually "won" at least when money's taken into account.

Josh Willingham is entering his age 29 season? WTF? I had no idea.

"Their major finds in other organizations are Jacobs, Uggla, and Ramirez and they gave up substantial talent for all but Uggla. Maybe Willis -- can't remember if that was Dombrowski or Beinfest."

Willis came along with Julian Tavarez and a mediocre prospects (who never did anything) from the Cubs chain for Alfonseca and Clement

(long, slow whistle)

Wow...the Tigers are like...a real team, aren't they? A surprise pennant in '06, a solid season in '07, a blockbuster deal (or two) over the winter...they're doing the type of things only the big guys do. I hate to give up Maybin, since I think he'll be a superstar, but...man oh man. Either Detroit will put together a mini-dynasty or it'll all crash down around them...but it'll be fun while it lasts.

Miller's stuff is so ridiculously good that the leading theory for why he wasn't a more dominant amateur/minor league pitcher is that he gets bored from lack of competition.

That's one of the Classic Baseball Cliches/Excuses, isn't it? There have been tons of minor league pitchers with "ridiculously good stuff" who could never manage to harness their control, and thus never made an impact in the majors. Lester is on the fringes of that club but his control is decent enough for him to stick as an average major-league pitcher (so far).

It's just like everybody is saying how great all these prospects are that the Marlins are getting, while all I hear about the Sox's various packages for Santana are comments like "The Three Midgets" when IMNSHO they are all better than everybody in the Marlins deal, except for Maybin of course who might be reasonably said to be Ellsbury's equal, if I am allowed to make that comparison despite the age gap.

It's just like everybody is saying how great all these prospects are that the Marlins are getting, while all I hear about the Sox's various packages for Santana are comments like "The Three Midgets" when IMNSHO they are all better than everybody in the Marlins deal, except for Maybin of course who might be reasonably said to be Ellsbury's equal, if I am allowed to make that comparison despite the age gap.

I'm not sure I buy the bit about Miller being bored, but I think if you asked 100 baseball executives and scouts, 95 of them would prefer Miller to Lester. All 100 would prefer Miller to Masterson. That doesn't mean you're wrong - I wasn't impressed by Miller when I saw him, but it does mean that Miller has significantly more market value than either of Lester or Masterson.

Edit: I also think that at least 95 out of 100 baseball executives and scouts would prefer Maybin to Ellsbury. There's just a lot more upside in Detroit's package for Cabrera/Willis than there is in Boston's package for Santana.

Miller's stuff is so ridiculously good that the leading theory for why he wasn't a more dominant amateur/minor league pitcher is that he gets bored from lack of competition.

This is the kind of comment, that really demonstrates a terrific understanding of player evaluation. It's great to hear from the more knowlegeable observers from time to time. Thanks.

Just out of curiosity, "what is the second leading theory?".

A friend of mine called me and told me that Cabrera was going to the Tigers for "nothing" AND Detroit was also getting Willis. Well, Miller and Maybin certainly aren't nothing and Florida might find some use for the other prospects. So this isn't horrible for Florida at all. But though Willis and Cabrera have been the star franchise players for the Marlins, lots of folks forget how young they both still are. You never know. Cabrera could fall in love with El Torito, get lazy and end up being another story of unfulfilled potential and Willis could get absolutely hammered in the AL. But getting those two at this stage in their careers seems like a steal.

I'm not thrilled with the current incarnation of Miguel Tejada, but I could live with losing Wood/Saunders for the guy.

"what is the second leading theory?".

He's just not that into pitching

Give me weed, whites, and wine
Show me a sign
And I'll be Willis...to be movin'

Edit: I also think that at least 95 out of 100 baseball executives and scouts would prefer Maybin to Ellsbury. There's just a lot more upside in Detroit's package for Cabrera/Willis than there is in Boston's package for Santana.

Well, there's potential, and then there's performance. 2-3 guys who project, right now (2008) to be solidly average major league regulars have a lot of value too, esp. if it isn't unreasonable that they could be better than that. You're talking about mighty big "ifs" if you project that Maybin can overcome his high K rate and Miller can harness his control. Lester, Ellsbury, and Lowrie have the advantage that they appear to be able to play immediately without wondering if they will ever actually get that decent. Miller may have more potential than Masterson but I'd project the latter over any of the other 3 new Florida pitchers.

Wow...the Tigers are like...a real team, aren't they? A surprise pennant in '06, a solid season in '07, a blockbuster deal (or two) over the winter...they're doing the type of things only the big guys do.

And they make deals effectively -- go in, make a deal without a lot of publicity or hand-wringing, and then move on. There's value in that, as it means you aren't constantly devoting time and energy to deals that never happen (Let's get ARod! Let's trade Manny!). Of course, Detroit's fanbase isn't demanding of high drama the way fans of some other teams are.

Walt, I was speaking in terms of evaluating prospects/minor league performance.

except for Maybin of course who might be reasonably said to be Ellsbury's equal

I'm starting to see Ellsbury as a potential Rex Sawk I hate the most. People who tout his OBP skills should keep in mind that his lack of power (And the truly good hitters behind him) may discourage pitchers from walking him which means he'll be highly BABIP dependent.

"except for Maybin of course who might be reasonably said to be Ellsbury's equal"

They must sell good pot in Boston.

Maybin is 20, built like a greek god, could develop immense power, can run and play the Of, has a good arm, etc. And his career OBP is .396.

Ellsbury is 24, runs like crazy, plays excellent D, gets on base well, although not as well as Maybin, is built like a normal person, and has no power.

Ellsbury is ready now, but so what? Ready to finish last in the NL East? Maybin is a way better prospect.

Miller is three years younger than Lester and has electric stuff. I like Lester a lot, but his K/BB hasn't been that impressive above AA. IMHO the willingness of Detroit to move two prospects of this caliber likely made the Twins reconsider what they are getting (or not getting) for Johan. Boston will have to put more in. I don't think they will beacause I don't think they want him that bad. The Yanks will eventually put in both Hughes and Kennedy (Joba is already a NY cult hero) and then they will have a deal.

I hope Detroit will consider leaving Inge at 3B and put Cabrera elsewhere. They can certainly afford to carry Inge's bat at this point. I'm hearing otherwise. More likely that they will unload Inge for a relief arm.

except for Maybin of course who might be reasonably said to be Ellsbury's equal

Proof that emotional attachment overrides intellect. ;-)

I like Lester a lot, but his K/BB hasn't been that impressive above AA.

Erik Bedard or Daniel Cabrera? His career could go either way.

Walt, I was speaking in terms of evaluating prospects/minor league performance.

So I gathered, but has it been all that good? Beinfest hasn't really made that many trades -- big chunks of the 2003 team left as FAs. As I noted, he ended up trading Penny and Lee for pretty much nothing in return -- for some reason focussing on vets in the Penny/LoDuca trade but not being able to parlay those vets into prospects. His major claim to such skills, at least in terms of picking them off other teams, are Jacobs, Hanley and Uggla all of whom had serious question marks around them. As noted, Willingham's prime is already behind him so no miracle evaluation took place there.

It's certainly not a bad track record, I like Beinfest as a GM. But the Marlins' "success" has largely been due to finishing at the bottom time and again and picking early in each round. Beinfest does not have a record (that I can see) of taking advantage of other teams in vets for prospects trades. And most of the prospects he's acquired in such trades have not panned out which is of course what you expect and his track record might well be better than most.

All I'm saying is that, sure, Maybin is a top prospect and if he works out, nobody will be surprised. You might say the same about Miller. But I wouldn't be particularly worried about the other prospects -- or at least no more than usual. That is, being acquired by the Marlins is not an indicator of future success (that I can see).