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Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Tim Kawakami: A’s-Holliday notes: The home/road split reality, the flip-possibilities, gunning for t

Here are Holliday’s stat lines…

-Career home: 84 HRs, .357 BA, .423 OBP, .645 SLG, 1.068 OPS.

-Career road:  44 HRs, .280 BA, .348 OBP, .455 SLG, .803 SLG.

In 2008 he was hurt for a bit–the numbers narrowed, mostly because he brought his road numbers up (and his home numbers fell some):

-2008 home: 15 HRs, .332 BA, .413 OBA, .584 SLG, .997 SLG.

-2008 road:  10 HRs, .308 BA, .405 OBA, .486 SLG, .892 SLG.

Those are the numbers. People are correct to be wary of this, because the A’s stadium is notably hitter-unfriendly with those big foul territories.

But I also believe that, while Coors/non-Coors splits are something to note, like always, no numbers are universal proof of anything, just as raw numbers. (Sorry, FJM!)

I’ve thought for a while that, while hitting regularly at Coors definitely helps Rockies batters, they also get unfairly disadvantaged by just slapping up their road games as a true measure of their abilities. Why?

-Because they play in the NL West, where three of the opponent parks are not friendly to hitters (Giants, Padres and, to a lesser extent, Dodgers) and every one of the opponents have had good to great pitching staffs of late.

Basically, a guy like Holliday gets two or three extra shots at Tim Linceceum, Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy, for example, instead of Brandon Backe or Whoever the Nationals Trot Out to the Mound.

Again: These stats aren’t there in a vacuum. You have to put them into perspective.

-The Rockies hitters DON’T get Coors Field in their “road” category. So while every other NL hitter gets to include Coors in their road at-bats, the Rockies singularly CANNOT do that.

Tripon Posted: November 11, 2008 at 04:49 AM | 14 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 11, 2008 at 12:00 PM (#3006685)
Umm...I think this guy could use an arithmetic lesson on the marginal runs/marginal wins relationship. It's 10-to-1, not 3-to-1.
   2. OCD SS Posted: November 11, 2008 at 01:39 PM (#3006707)
And he still doesn't say anything about the "reverse Coors" effect that negatively affects Rockies hitters on the road. Still, we're up to talking about splits now.

Baby steps...
   3. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: November 11, 2008 at 02:26 PM (#3006716)
Is this trade even official yet? I have yet to see a confirmation from any official source.
   4. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 11, 2008 at 03:29 PM (#3006757)
Is this trade even official yet?


No. But it will be in the next day or two.

-- MWE
   5. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: November 11, 2008 at 03:31 PM (#3006759)
Thanks Mike.
   6. Tripon Posted: November 11, 2008 at 04:43 PM (#3006815)

And he still doesn't say anything about the "reverse Coors" effect that negatively affects Rockies hitters on the road. Still, we're up to talking about splits now.


Kawakami does, I just didn't quote that part.
   7. KingKaufman Posted: November 11, 2008 at 05:10 PM (#3006836)
Are there numbers somewhere that show AT&T;being a severe pitcher's park? That's what everyone says, but all the numbers I've seen say it's roughly a league average park that limits home runs and gives back triples.

Baseball Reference has it as 102 (multi-year) for hitters. ESPN has it ranging from 97-105 over the last five years. Bill James has it 101 for 2006-2008 and 105 for 2008 only.

But AT&T;always gets written about as a pitcher's park. Why?
   8. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 11, 2008 at 05:14 PM (#3006838)
Conventional wisdom.
   9. rfloh Posted: November 11, 2008 at 05:27 PM (#3006845)
KingKaufman Posted: November 11, 2008 at 01:10 PM (#3006836)
Are there numbers somewhere that show AT&T;being a severe pitcher's park? That's what everyone says, but all the numbers I've seen say it's roughly a league average park that limits home runs and gives back triples.


It seems that when most people think of hitters' / pitchers' parks, the (only) thing they have in mind is home runs.
   10. OCD SS Posted: November 11, 2008 at 06:03 PM (#3006875)
Kawakami does, I just didn't quote that part.


I meant the very particular effect described by MGL of their hitters putting up worse numbers on the road as they adjust to things like break balls at sea level and the like, rather than how he danced around park effects.

Still, our time will come.
   11. Joe OBrien Posted: November 11, 2008 at 10:34 PM (#3007132)
Are there numbers somewhere that show AT&T;being a severe pitcher's park? That's what everyone says, but all the numbers I've seen say it's roughly a league average park that limits home runs and gives back triples.

Baseball Reference has it as 102 (multi-year) for hitters. ESPN has it ranging from 97-105 over the last five years. Bill James has it 101 for 2006-2008 and 105 for 2008 only.

But AT&T;always gets written about as a pitcher's park. Why?


Where can you get left/right park factors? Because ATT&T;is much tougher on left-handed hitters than right-handed. The two main factors are the wind that blows from right field to left, especially at night, and the huge right center field complete with high fence.

The parks pretty fair for right handed pull hitters. If it wasn't, I would support Ellis Burks and Rich Aurilia for the Hall of Fame, and the Henry Aaron award would have to be renamed for Jeff Kent.
   12. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 11, 2008 at 10:47 PM (#3007142)
Barry didn't seem to mind hitting at home...
   13. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: November 12, 2008 at 03:20 AM (#3007245)
It's almost like the author read our other thread on the subject...
   14. KingKaufman Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:47 AM (#3007296)
Bill James Handbook has right-left park effects on average and home runs. I don't have my copy handy right now.
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