Tony put it confusingly - but basically, this is the Dodgers' last offer (a one year, $25 million contract) with a $20 million player option tacked on. So the Dodgers would get Manny at maximum motivation in 2009, and then get a couple of draft picks for him. I'm fine with that. And if something happens - well, it would in effect be the same as if Manny had accepted their initial offer, before free agency began - and I'm fine with that too. Maybe some last minute tweaking or something, but I expect Manny in camp by this weekend.

What did he have LA drop in the trade (ie, the team option)? $18/year?

And what was LA's initial offer? $45 over 2 years, but both guaranteed?

Now is the perfect moment for Atlanta to swoop in and steal him.

Seems like a great deal for the Dodgers. I can see Manny declining the option, and then not getting any offers next winter too.

Manny had L.A. drop the two team options, both at $20 million per year, but with money deferred.

L.A. made three offers.

1st offer: Two years with a team option. 1st year: 15 million, 2nd year: 22.5 million, 3rd year team option: 22.5 million. If option declined, $7.5 million buyout. Total: $45 million for two years, or $60 million at three years.

2nd offer: A straight $25 million one year contract.

3rd offer: The current one, one year $25 million, with a player option of $20 million.

The Dodgers also offered arbitration, which I guess could have pushed Manny over the $25 million mark for 2009 if he accepted.

So for his trouble, Manny comes out $5 million ahead (plus the present value of the deferral money). Maybe even further ahead if he has a monster year and declines the option. Of course, the big winner is Boras who gets his cut of at least $45 million instead of $0.

Manny would be an idiot to turn this down given the complete lack of interest from any other team but I suppose we are talking about Manny (and Boras) here so who knows.

Thanks Tripon, I think this clearly has to be a win for Manram, and by extension Boras.

I suppose you could make the case that he could have forced Boston/LA to drop the team options with less drama, and he might have been able to more and for longer this year.

So the Dodgers would get Manny at maximum motivation in 2009, and then get a couple of draft picks for him.

I don't think that's a sure thing. No other team seemed interested in Manny this year, it's not clear that a team will be interested in a Manny that is 1 year older next year.

Manny's going to take this, of course, and you can go ahead and chalk up another one for Boras. How the #### he managed this one, I don't know. Yeah, "Manny's crazy in the head and even though no one else is openly bidding or even being rumored really, he might just go home if they only offer $15 million." That's perfectly sensible as a thing to say, but it's one hell of a ###### place to be when you're negotiating.

That's why that guy is Scott Boras.

Yep. Love him or hate him, Boras is the best in the business, hands down.

I don't think that's a sure thing. No other team seemed interested in Manny this year, it's not clear that a team will be interested in a Manny that is 1 year older next year.

I don't know about that, the market resets every off season. For example, the Yankees lose a lot of outfielders next year to FA, including their starting left fielder(Matsui), and his quasi-backup in Johnny Damon, and also Xavier Nady in Right Field. Mets have not feel a Murphy/Tatis/Church corner outfield is working. The M's might decide by next year that with the Angels regressing and the A's not taking advantage, that they can. The Braves can't take any more of Jeff Francouer, etc.

Why does the second year become guaranteed in case of an injury? If there's a player option, Manny's almost certain to exercise it in that situation, right?

I wonder if legal definitions are in the way - insurance payouts, retirement stuff, and luxury tax concerns if the contract's officially guaranteed versus just practically guaranteed.

Why does the second year become guaranteed in case of an injury? If there's a player option, Manny's almost certain to exercise it in that situation, right?

This is Manny Ramirez we're talking about. Boras probably put it in there in case Manny forgot.

The M's might decide by next year that with the Angels regressing and the A's not taking advantage, that they can.

*sigh* Four team division and we can't even rate a mention.

I wonder if legal definitions are in the way - insurance payouts, retirement stuff, and luxury tax concerns if the contract's officially guaranteed versus just practically guaranteed.

In the comment section of his blog, Tony Jackson explained that it was just practically guaranteed if he were injured. That's why in #1 I had said he had initially put it confusingly.

Tripon, Matsui is the Yanks DH. Damon is the Yanks LF. Nady will probably split RF duties with Swisher.

Frankly, I suspect the Yankees will offer arbitration to Damon (if healthy) and Nady (if he has a 2009), but will let Matsui go.

If Damon and Nady are good and back, I don't think they get any extra OF help, though arguably that also depends on what happens in CF (and with Austin Jackson).

Why does the second year become guaranteed in case of an injury? If there's a player option, Manny's almost certain to exercise it in that situation, right?

Complete WAG, but I would bet that there is some language in player options about the player being physically able to perform. Someone who remembers Belle's last contract may confirm/contradict this. So if a guy has his legs blown off by a grenade, even if he's got a player option, there's an out for the team. It'd make sense for teams to put that in there, and it'd probably be seen as a minor point on the player's side. This would override that by replacing it. Dunno, just a thought.

In the comment section of his blog, Tony Jackson explained that it was just practically guaranteed if he were injured. That's why in #1 I had said he had initially put it confusingly.

Another beautiful theory ruined by the ####### facts.

Frankly, I suspect the Yankees will offer arbitration to Damon (if healthy) and Nady (if he has a 2009), but will let Matsui go.

There is roughly a 0% chance the Yankees offer Damon arbitration.

*sigh* Four team division and we can't even rate a mention.

Sorry! I just assumed that Texas still wouldn't have enough decent pitchers by 2010.

Manny will decline this offer, holding out for $28 million a year. He will sign a week before the season starts, so he doesn't have to go to Spring Training.

Sorry! I just assumed that Texas still wouldn't have enough decent pitchers by 2010.

No, they're all in San Diego, Chicago, and Cincinnati.

*sigh* Four team division and we can't even rate a mention.

And, sheepishly I might add, it took me about 8-10 seconds to remember who you were referring too.

Speaking of, since the Dugout is some sort of walking undead that appears once a week, I was thinking about this today. How *is* it that you never, ever hear the remotest amount of ######## about the NL Central and AL West? I mean, it works for me, but if I were a 'stros fan, or Reds, or any of them, I would be livid that this has gone on this long. Not only do we get stuck with a disadvantage over everyone else, those teams get an advantage, meaning they're two up on all of us!

Honestly, and not to start anything, but this is a much bigger deal to me than steroids and I don't see how it doesn't impact the game's "fairness" and "equity" just as much as disparate payrolls.

jeff i think the fact the nl central has the pirates negates that.
really though it is ###### up that it is set up that way the al west is inherently easier to win and the nl central is the hardest to win. im guessing they wanted to have an even number of teams in each league, but really that doesnt matter its bs that one division has less teams then the other and ruins any true competive balance.

Honestly, and not to start anything, but this is a much bigger deal to me than steroids and I don't see how it doesn't impact the game's "fairness" and "equity" just as much as disparate payrolls.

It's because people don't really care about fairness all that much, unless it's ugly. Steroids and payrolls are unfair in an ugly way (drugs and money), but the different division sizes is unfairness in order to make scheduling work.

jeff i think the fact the nl central has the pirates negates that.
really though it is ###### up that it is set up that way the al west is inherently easier to win and the nl central is the hardest to win. im guessing they wanted to have an even number of teams in each league, but really that doesnt matter its bs that one division has less teams then the other and ruins any true competive balance.

Pittsburgh shouldn't be in the NL central, they should be in the NL east. Really, Pittsburgh gets the short end of the stick, you're telling me that they have to travel thousands of miles for the majority of their road games against NL central teams, yet if they were in the NL East, they'd can make a two hour road trip to either New York or Philly?

meat, the stated purpose is that if you have 15/15, you have to have interleague every night you have all 30 playing. Why, if you are going to have IL play, this is a bad thing has always been completely beyond me. I always think I must be missing something, because it seems painfully obvious that IL play has lost its luster partly because Detroit/Cincinnati isn't any big deal when there's 14 other IL games that night. However, if they had one IL game per night, broadcast that on MLB network (while blacking out on MLB in the two markets, of course), what complete ####### moron doesn't see that that would kill, comparatively speaking?

Especially with the fact that I can't watch the Braves every night on TBS to hopefully catch some of my NL-only league fantasy guys, and I can't count on WGN like I used to, so I'm stuck most nights with the Astros (whom I detest) and maybe 30 nights a year the Rangers are on FoxSW in Austin, someone like me would slap my grandmother to be able to see a Game of the Night that rotates IL games, including DH/none, and features completely unique matchups.

Oh, and it has the benefit of levelling the playing field. This is a basic ###### that baseball has uniquely made. Other than college conferences, I can't think of another situation where one team only has to beat three others while another team has to beat four/five just to reach the same place.

Didn't Pittsburgh demand to stay Central?

(EDIT) And by stay central, I mean stay with...oh my god, I've forgotten who used to be in the NL West and NL East.

Pittsburgh shouldn't be in the NL central, they should be in the NL east. Really, Pittsburgh gets the short end of the stick, you're telling me that they have to travel thousands of miles for the majority of their road games against NL central teams, yet if they were in the NL East, they'd can make a two hour road trip to either New York or Philly?

Thousands of miles? There is only one city that Pittsburgh travels more than 1,000 miles, round trip, to play in the NL Central, Houston. That's the same number of 1,000 mile trips Pittsburgh would have if it played in the NL East (Miami).

Cincinnati is pretty much the same distance from Pittsburgh as Philly is.

Let's see...old NL West, first try:

Braves
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
Astros

East
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Phillies
Mets
Expos

Oh, and Cincy for the West. Whew.

ok then move houston to the nl west, then move the padres to the al west and problem solved 3 5 team divisions in each league.
of course padre fans might not like this, but i can see moving la, or sf to the al since they have nearby teams already there. maybe colorado to the al instead

Thousands of miles? There is only one city that Pittsburgh travels more than 1,000 miles, round trip, to play in the NL Central, Houston. That's the same number of 1,000 mile trips Pittsburgh would have if it played in the NL East (Miami).

Cincinnati is pretty much the same distance from Pittsburgh as Philly is.

Okay, I'm pretty bad with geography. But what I meant that road trips to Milwaukee, Cincy, Chicago, and St. Louis, and Houston are surely longer than road trips to New York, Philly, Atalanta, and Miami.

I'd move the Rockies to the AL West. Let them deal with ###### up pitchers staff due to the thin air in Denver for a change.

ok then move houston to the nl west, then move the padres to the al west and problem solved 3 5 team divisions in each league.

You'd never get either the Dodgers or the Giants to move, I think the Rockies and Dbacks both have some agreement about staying NL (I swear I remember this) so they're out, leaving SD, but why move two? If Houston is already agreeing to move, move them to the AL West. That way the AL West isn't "Texas and oh yeah, four teams that are two time zones away." The Rangers would ##### up a storm about this. They already have a semi-legitimate gripe about the fact that their TV numbers are held down considerably by the fact that all of their divisional road games start at 9 PM local. That wouldn't change if SD moved, of course.

Better yet, move Milwaukee the #### back to the AL where it belongs.

jeff i suggest SD because LA and SF wont switch because of OAK and LAA. i dont think houston would switch because of the proximity of the rangers

I don't see any way Houston agrees to move period, because both situations, AL or NL West, are markedly worse for them. But if they were going to agree to one, or if MLB tried to force them, I think AL West makes the most sense. For Houston, it gives them one division foe in the same time zone, a short trip away, which is more than they'd have going to the NL West. Sure, Colorado and Arizona are closer than Oakland and Anaheim, but I bet (Werr?) the totality of the three (Arlington/Oakland/Anaheim vs. Denver/Phoenix/next closest out of LA or SF) evens out or comes close enough to be basically irrelevant. Though the time zone factor for TV does play in.

But most importantly, instead of whatever huge sweeteners you'd have to throw in to make it happen going to two teams, you could concentrate on one. It works best for MLB if you put Houston and Texas together to make up for Sea/Oakland/Anaheim (both for HOU/TEX and for the other three, as they can make a swing like NBA teams do instead of flying all the way out just for a set with Texas, with their next closest divisional foe being all the way back where they came from and their next closest league foe being the Royals) and I don't see why Houston would greatly prefer the NL West over the AL, leaving aside league identity. In a perfect world, Houston, Texas, Arizona, and Colorado would all be in the same division.

jeff i suggest SD because LA and SF wont switch because of OAK and LAA.

Not to mention both are NL teams years before there was an AL. That does actually matter to some people still.

I believe there's an issue with an odd-number of teams in each league - some team would need to sit every day or else interleague play would have to be a constant throughout the season. This was the big issue last time redistribution of teams was discussed.

If he doesn't take this offer under the current market conditions, he is stone cold certifiably insane.

But I know he can't stand spring training work, so I'm sure he'll take his sweet time. I just hope for the Dodgers sake that he ultimately decides that he's happy enough to produce.

But what I meant that road trips to Milwaukee, Cincy, Chicago, and St. Louis, and Houston are surely longer than road trips to New York, Philly, Atlanta, and Miami.

I'm no geography expert either, but I would guess that Pittsburgh is closer to Milwaukee, Cincy, Chicago, and St. Louis than it is to either Atlanta or Miami. Pittsburgh is also more like those 4 cities - it's an upper-Midwest Rust Belt city - than with the cities of the NL East. Aside from the obvious natural rivalry with Philadelphia, Pittsburgh seems to me to fit more naturally into the NL Central, outside of Houston, which really doesn't fit naturally into any of the divisions, unless somebody were to try to build some kind of Southern division somewhere (Atlanta, Miami, Houston - I don't know that there are enough truly Southern cities, Tampa if you switch leagues, then you'd probably have to do Washington? or the Rangers)

The source said Boras specifically requested a player-only option for a second year be worked into the deal. With that option at the numbers the Dodgers are offering, Ramirez, 37, could guarantee himself $45 million for two seasons, or could walk away after one season for $25 million if he feels his market has improved.

Normally I'd say that his market is not likely to have improved next year, given that 2008 was the top of his range and he'll be a year older next year. However, two factors play in here:

1) The economy could be better next year; and
2) Teams may be less wary of the circumstances surrounding his Boston departure.

Okay, I'm pretty bad with geography. But what I meant that road trips to Milwaukee, Cincy, Chicago, and St. Louis, and Houston are surely longer than road trips to New York, Philly, Atalanta, and Miami.

Driving distance (miles) from Pittsburgh to:

Philadelphia - 304
New York -374
Atlanta - 686
Miami - 1175
Average - 634

Cincinnati - 291
Chicago - 407
Milwaukee - 552
St. Louis - 602
Houston - 1417
Average - 654

Of course, they aren't driving to any of these cities anyway.

1) The economy could be better next year; and
2) Teams may be less wary of the circumstances surrounding his Boston departure.

#2 will depend entirely not only on how he produces, but on how he behaves as well, and everyone will be keeping a very close eye on him all year long. Full effort, no physical altercations with team employees, and no fake injuries, and just maybe he'll have a shot to create a demand worthy of his ability.

Philadelphia - 304
New York -374
Atlanta - 686
Miami - 1175
Average - 634

You left out Washington, which is only 259 miles from Pittsburgh. Of course, at the time the divisions were drawn up, the relevant comparison was to Montreal, which is pretty much exactly average at 629.

Jeff K.: In the 1998 expansion, Arizona asked for and was awarded an NL franchise. We can speculate as to why they asked for this and why MLB agreed to it (Jerry Reinsdorf's relationships with Bud Selig and Jerry Colangelo might be a place to start). Tampa Bay had to be an AL team, otherwise the entire southeast would be NL territory, as they already had teams in Atlanta and Miami. This set up a 15/15 team split between the leagues. Some team owners were not in favor of having interleague games running throughout the season, perhaps because they felt that without MLB's media campaigns the interleague series would not be as financially as successful overall (Yes, ChiSox/Cubs could sell out Soldier Field with a 3 AM start on a Tuesday morning, but ChiSox/Marlins? Eh.) as they had been in the past few years. Selig chose to move the Brewers from the AL to the NL. This solved the 15/15 problem by moving the only team he could move without another owner's approval, but created the three division 5/6/5 v. 5/5/4 problem. It also saved Selig's team the expense of paying a DH. Selig charged John Harrington (Red Sox CEO, 1992-2002, president of the Yawkey Foundation) with solving the problem, and his proposal was a 4/4/4/4 NL (no wildcard) and 4/6/4 AL divisional splits. Again not ideal with a six team AL Central and no NL wildcard, but Cleveland and Detroit are in the eastern time zone and were in the AL East for years and perhaps could have been convinced to move to the AL East. The AL Central teams were not happy with the proposal and it died.

Leave it to John Harrington to come up with an even more ridiculous plan than what we currently have. 4/4/4/4 NL with no wildcard, and 4/6/4 in the AL with one? I can't even type that to mock it without cracking a smile.

on city distances, aren't different time zones the real factor? Once you are on a plane 9and have invested the time getting to the airport and getting through security), how much different is a 3 hour flight than a 2 hour flight?

Almost none of these cities is comfortable driving distance anyway, so that mileage is nice information but very imprecise in determining the real problem involved.

if we wanted driving distance as a factor, put the yankees, mets, red sox, orioles and phillies in the same division, I guess.

on city distances, aren't different time zones the real factor? Once you are on a plane 9and have invested the time getting to the airport and getting through security), how much different is a 3 hour flight than a 2 hour flight?

Sure, but even with that Pittsburgh doesn't have nearly the hardship that Texas does. Any team that wants to gripe about its divisional alignment has to get way behind the Rangers in line.

Yeah, Selig wanted to re-create the old Milwaukee Braves rivalries, so he put the Brewers in the NL.

My solution--
Both leagues 15 teams.
Brewers to AL Central.
KC to AL West.

Each team plays division opponents 16 times (64 g).
Each team plays league opponents 8 times (80 g).
Each team plays one division from other league 3 times (15 g).
Each team plays "rival" 3 times (3 g).
64 + 80 + 15 + 3 = 162 games.

So, Texas plays:
16 each against LAA, Sea, KC, and Oak.
8 each against Cle, Mil, Det, ChW, Min; Bos, NY, Tor, Bal, and TBay.
3 each against one NL division (rotates per year);
3 against rival: Houston.

Simple. Clean. Sensible. So Selig will never do it.

Yeah, Selig wanted to re-create the old Milwaukee Braves rivalries, so he put the Brewers in the NL.

My solution--
Both leagues 15 teams.
Brewers to AL Central.
KC to AL West.

Each team plays division opponents 16 times (64 g).
Each team plays league opponents 8 times (80 g).
Each team plays one division from other league 3 times (15 g).
Each team plays "rival" 3 times (3 g).
64 + 80 + 15 + 3 = 162 games.

So, Texas plays:
16 each against LAA, Sea, KC, and Oak.
8 each against Cle, Mil, Det, ChW, Min; Bos, NY, Tor, Bal, and TBay.
3 each against one NL division (rotates per year);
3 against rival: Houston.

Simple. Clean. Sensible. So Selig will never do it.

I have to pass on any plan makes it harder to rid the sport of the abomination that is interleague play. Sure, it may be a pipe dream, but I'm going to cling to it.

Full effort, no physical altercations with team employees, and no fake injuries, and just maybe he'll have a shot to create a demand worthy of his ability.

Yeah, after choking on a measly 25 million, Good Citizen Manny can opt out and get 35 million next year.

I'm well aware that 25 million dollars is a lot of money, my ankle-biting little shadow, but it isn't nearly what he wanted or was expecting, was it?

I have to pass on any plan makes it harder to rid the sport of the abomination that is interleague play. Sure, it may be a pipe dream, but I'm going to cling to it.

Well, you have a better chance of this happening than the people that want the DH to go away. So run with it.

I'm well aware that 25 million dollars is a lot of money, my ankle-biting little shadow

Sorry, Joey, for mocking your 19th, 32nd, 55th, 81st, and 100th "ha, ha, Manny didn't get thirty offers" posts. You've written so many of them that even a 5% response rate must feel like stalking.

Once you are on a plane 9and have invested the time getting to the airport and getting through security), how much different is a 3 hour flight than a 2 hour flight?

People who fly charter aren't like us. They don't go through security or stand in check-in lines or #### like that. It's really rather nice, in a 1970s traveling kind of way. I've done it once. I do occasionally fly on planes which take very few passengers and that is almost as easy.

"Didn't Pittsburgh demand to stay Central?"

Not that I recall. In fact, a lot of people around here thought that the team got the shaft by getting stuck in the Central.

"I believe there's an issue with an odd-number of teams in each league - some team would need to sit every day or else interleague play would have to be a constant throughout the season. This was the big issue last time redistribution of teams was discussed."

Still don't see why either of those would be bad things.

"Pittsburgh is also more like those 4 cities - it's an upper-Midwest Rust Belt city - than with the cities of the NL East."

Just as a FYI, if you call Pittsburgh a rust belt city while you're in Pittsburgh, you'll get punched in the nose. People here consider themselves to be East Coast, and if they have something in common with the Detroits and Milwaukees (and God forbid, Clevelands) of the world, they sure as hell don't want to admit it.

During the presidential campaign last year, it was surreal to hear all the talking heads on TV blathering about Pennsylvania's "heartland values" and all that ####. Everybody around here thought it was hilarious.

If you want to have even leagues without going back to interleague play, the solution is simple: Expand by two teams, and then make either two divisions of eight teams in each league (with both sending two teams to the playoffs) or four divisions of four teams (with each division champ going).

During the presidential campaign last year, it was surreal to hear all the talking heads on TV blathering about Pennsylvania's "heartland values" and all that ####. Everybody around here thought it was hilarious.

I thought the conventional wisdom is that Pennsylvania is Philly in the East, Pittsburgh in the West and Alabama in the middle. I guess only the Pennsylbamans have the "heartland values" - such as they are.

Yeah, I think we're going to see expansion first before 15 teams in each league. Which is kinda hilarious considering how bent MLB was for contracting the Twins and Expos.

Gonfalon, you have now joined myself and Daly in being labelled by Joey as "a stalker". So, welcome to the club. We meet on Wednesdays, except for every third Wednesday, when as you well know, Joey visits his grandma. That week we move to Thursdays at 7, in between his taekwondo class and before he rushes home for Law & Order. By the way, have you seen his new couch? Swank.

Law & Order is on Thursdays now? DOES NBC HAVE NO SHAME?

No, he TIVOs it. He rushes home so that he can watch it before the local news on Thursdays. Channel 9 is his favorite.

Joey visits his grandma.

Thats the day he climbs out of the basement to say hello?

Just as a FYI, if you call Pittsburgh a rust belt city while you're in Pittsburgh, you'll get punched in the nose.

As a proud Rust Belt resident myself, I'd have to say that Pittsburghers are delusional then. Pittsburgh isn't in the Midwest, but it's sure as hell a Rust Belt city under any definition of the term.

Okay, I'm pretty bad with geography. But what I meant that road trips to Milwaukee, Cincy, Chicago, and St. Louis, and Houston are surely longer than road trips to New York, Philly, Atalanta, and Miami.


Driving distance (miles) from Pittsburgh to:

Philadelphia - 304
New York -374
Atlanta - 686
Miami - 1175
Average - 634

Cincinnati - 291
Chicago - 407
Milwaukee - 552
St. Louis - 602
Houston - 1417
Average - 654

Of course, they aren't driving to any of these cities anyway.

Keep in mind too, that an average 300 mile increase in the distance a team travels to its away games means all of a half an hour increase in travel time.

I've got a simple question for anyone who has been following the Manny-LA negotiations closely: why aren't the Dodgers offering 2/30? Are they afraid if they do and Manny accepts he's going to dog it?

Because if they offer that then the Giants would probably swoop in and sign him. Or another team.

Okay--my impression had been that LA was bidding against itself, pretty much. Do you know if SF made a firm offer?

Pretty much. The Dodgers offers were made to make sure that other teams would have to think long and hard about entering the Manny sweepstakes. Actually, the first offer may have been a propaganda tactic to save some face and starve off criticism because at that time, the thinking was that a team like the Yankees was going to sign Manny.

Right. But the effect of the large offers is that no other team has gotten into the bidding - because it's more than they want to spend. But even though the Mets claim to have spent all that they want - I can't see them passing up one year of Manny for $18 million and incentives, for instance. And a pissed off Manny and the Giants would love to stick it to the Dodgers. And the Giants at least have been public about wanting to get into the Manny bidding if the price dropped a bit.

ESPN just announced on-air that Manny rejected the Dodgers' deal...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3938665

Wow. I kinda think Manny's not going to play this year.

When his agent finds those 'serious offers' from other clubs, we'll be happy to restart the negotiations.

Yup. Doesn't sound like the Dodgers plan to improve the offer.

wow. i might win this yet! my prediction was a three yr deal. i think that's what manny is holding out for.

the dodgers have actually released a statement saying 'boras has rejected the dodger offer' ... the dodgers are trying to stay on manny's good side. making boras the bad guy isn't going to change anything. this is not over.

DAMN this is getting kind of insane.

i might win this yet! my prediction was a three yr deal. i think that's what manny is holding out for.

I was going to say no way Colletti is going to give in on that - but I'm really not the person to bet on Colletti's intelligence.

Now if the Giants (to use one example) were to come in and offer a straight-up 2 year/$50 million guaranteed deal, I suppose this is marginally better than the latest Dodger offer, but does Boras accept that kind of offer, call it a "win" since he improved on the Dodger deal, and call it a day?

Because it seems pretty clear the Dodgers think they're bidding against themselves and will not go more than 2 years no matter what, and while it may (to some extent) be about the $, I suspect for Boras/Manny it's about the years, because in 2 years Ramirez could well be really toasted and no one would even give him a 1 year/$8 million offer, so if he doesn't score a big contract now for at least 4 years, he's done earning big money after this year and (maybe) next year.

Unless Boras is planning to go all Clemens with Manny and somehow get him $25 million this year for just 4 months of work, I don't get this at all.

Now if the Giants (to use one example) were to come in and offer a straight-up 2 year/$50 million guaranteed deal, I suppose this is marginally better than the latest Dodger offer, but does Boras accept that kind of offer, call it a "win" since he improved on the Dodger deal, and call it a day?

Except the Giants don't have the money to make that offer. They already spent $25+ million on free agents this off season. Where in the heck are they going to find another $25 million per year to give to Manny?

Giants, Mets, whoever--the team wasn't really my point (I should have made that clearer); my point was simply: what does an offer need to be (from anyone) where Boras can accept, declare victory, and go home? If he's banking on a 3- or 4-year offer, I would not hold my breath... And if no offers like that are forthcoming, what is the endgame here?

Textbook Editor

That might be the most completely off-the-wall yet completely not off-the-wall handle I have ever seen on the intarwebs.

The endgame is always what the endgame is with Boras: every ####### dollar there is available*.

* Availability can be cajoled, created, mythologized, eulogized, euthanized, or straight-up pickpocketed while the other guy is looking at the pretty pink horse you rode to the negotiations on.

Wow. Well, if you're both right, that LA is offering so much that other teams aren't even getting into it, and Manny's still turning LA down, I'm thinking Manny's going to be shagging pop flies at some college field well into March.

edit: lol--I posted after reading 73.

If he's banking on a 3- or 4-year offer, I would not hold my breath... And if no offers like that are forthcoming, what is the endgame here?

I have no idea at this stage. My original thought was a two year offer, with an option for the third year - but the Dodgers don't seem willing, and no other team seems willing to give him for three years what the Dodgers have offered for two years. I'm just not sure there's a grasp of reality going on.

I shouldn't say that, since Boras has such a high success rate though.

I'm wondering - if Manny doesn't sign by the beginning of the season - does he fire Boras?

Well, Jeff K., I went for on-the-nose with my handle, since I am... um... a textbook editor. We're boring like that as a species.

It is possible Boras is whispering to Manny not to worry: even if he remains unsigned, [INSERT TEAM HERE] will want to pick him up 2 months in to "boost" a playoff run, etc. and perhaps even be willing to pay more than $25 million prorated (or not prorated!) for the pleasure of "stretch-drive Manny," at which point Manny rides in on his white horse, hits .500 with 30 HRs, etc. and everyone comes away happy... And in that situation, perhaps the next team/"sucker" will then in the winter of 2009 offer Manny a multi-year deal, etc.

It all seems a bit crazy to me, but I keep coming back to the notion that if Manny doesn't get a 3- or 4-year deal now/this off-season, the chances are pretty slim he'd get one in 2 years (and maybe even next year). Boras knows this is the only year where it makes any sense to push hard for a multi-year deal; after this no one will want Manny except on short years/dollars.

As a Red Sox fan, though, I am fairly glad we got rid of this circus.

Were I an enterprising GM who had a need (and the resources), I'd offer $30 million for 1 year, with a $30 million option for year 2 and nothing else and see if Boras bit. I would not at all be surprised if the Yankees moved in here and made a deal. Sure, it leaves them with 110 outfielder/DH-types on the roster, but it's the sort of thing I can see a Steinbrenner itching to do, especially if Boras would allow only a 2 year deal.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-manny-ramirez-dodgers27-2009feb27,0,2453699.story

Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times has provided us updated details. Apparently the current two year Dodgers offer had a bunch of deferred money in it. Seeing this, Scott Boras reportedly asked in a counter offer up to $50 million in two years. The Dodgers responded with that asinine letter, and reported that Boras rejected a deal... except he didn't really reject it. They're still negotiating and talking to each other but they're pissing each other off pretty badly here. I'm about ready to say #### this about the whole situation.

Apparently the current two year Dodgers offer had a bunch of deferred money in it.

Which means that either the NPV equaled what was originally reported (not likely), the Dodgers leaked the info to make it sound like it was 50 MM to try and pressure Boras with public opinion (not out of the question, but the notion that Colletti's going to outmaneuver Boras in this specific way is pretty ####### funny), or whomever gave the sportswriters the information gave them the full info and they don't understand the concept of NPV.

Seeing this, Scott Boras reportedly asked in a counter offer up to $50 million in two years. The Dodgers responded with that asinine letter, and reported that Boras rejected a deal... except he didn't really reject it.

And this makes me think that the Dodgers leak scenario is the most likely. I can definitely see the scenario where they say "Okay, 25 MM for 2009, 20 MM player option for 2010", Boras is amenable, then they try to pull a little wool and defer some money, Boras calls them on it and asks for the deferred money to be boosted to what would NPV to 25+20(1-DR), and the Dodgers got caught out. That's all pure speculation, of course. It could have been a pure miscommunication. But it fits the facts, especially if things are turning truly rancorous. Boras isn't going to #### with his money over petty ####, but a guy with his public personality is likely to have a big hot button about people trying to con him with smoke and mirrors. That's *his* ####### job.

But a funny thing may have happened on the way to the Forum, and assuming all that speculation is 100% correct, Colletti's petty BS little tricks might save him in the end. Boras is dancing between raindrops on this one. If the Dodgers truly are the only ones bidding past $18 or whatever, it doesn't matter how it comes about, whether through guile or stupidity masked as luck, if they realize it and act on that realization he is ######.

Hell, most Detroiters I know consider themselves to be in the "east" rather than the "midwest," and I certainly never heard the term "rustbelt" till I moved to the east coast.

Completely randomly, I was just reading an LA Times story about school administrators asking one student to buy weed from another student to run some Keystone Kops 'sting', and I saw a blog post on the right with an awesome title. In fact, it deserves a Clutch Hit.