I could see Jacobs not producing much better than the Royals 1B last year. He is brutal in the field and an OBP of less than .300 is just a killer regardless of the slugging that comes with it.

I don't like this deal at all for the Royals. They don't need a 1B, really (I'm fairly convinced Kila or Shealy would do fine there), and they certainly don't need another low OBP guy. Yuck.

Well, his career OBP is .318 which, according to BPro, is more like a .322 in a neutral environment. That's still not great but it brings him up half the distance between his 2008 and league average.

EDIT: and his career EQA is .011 above Shealy's and they are the same age.

Neither of these guys are stars. Unless Nunez starts striking people out, he's not likely to be much more than your standard issue, up-and-down middle reliever. He gives up too many fly balls to be a game changer without a good K-Rate.

Both teams need to fill a hole, and traded a flawed player to fill that hole, gambling that the flawed player they are acquiring is more likely to improve than the flawed player they are surrendering.

Jacobs' 2008 BABIP was just .260, where the MLB average is around .300 or so. With better luck, he could see a 20-30 point improvement in his batting average, and hence his OBP as well.

But for a GM who was just talking about the need for improved OBP a month ago, getting the 142nd worst OBP guy out of 147 qualified MLB regulars does not seem like a brilliant approach.

Jacobs does has some comps through his age that suggest improved OBP. Don Mincher, Tino Martinez, Andy LaRoche, Carlos Pena. That, and his K/BB rate has never been that miserable until this year. Maybe there's hope for his strikezone judgment yet.

If the Royals wanted a Marlin, I think picking up Alejandro De Aza off waivers would have been cheaper and potentially more useful.

This trade would be worse if, as the intro proposes, the 29-year-old Ryan Shealy were "young" rather than not very good.

I can see using Jacobs as a Craig Wilson type if he can still catch a smidge, but I guess that ship has sailed (for now).
Eh - Kila is probably a AAAA player (though I hope I'm wrong) and I don't believe in Shealy at all. Worst case scenario might be that Jacobs has superficially good seasons and eventually earns real money.

I'm not nearly as down on this trade as most of the sabermetric community is. I don't think its a great deal, but I don't think there are a ton of great options. I would rather see what Shealy and/or Kila can do, but honestly, neither of them are all that likely to be very good. Shealy is nearly 30 now with very few quality MLB at bats under his belt, and Kila was a total non-prospect just seven months ago.

I think there has been way too much focus on what Jacobs cannot do rather than seeing what he can do. A .500 SLG in Dolphin Stadium is nothing to sneeze at, and with the Royals so completely power-starved, it makes sense to add a bat like that to the lineup for a middle reliever. His OBA is certainly troubling, but his road splits show an OBA that is not nearly as bad away from Miami.

I don't think his defense is going to be a huge concern. First base is the least important position to worry about defensively, and he's likely going to DH quite a bit too. And Ross Gload can sub in late in games.

There just aren't a ton of solid high OBA, high SLG 1B out there available for cheap. Getting an imperfect hitter who provides some of what you need, while giving up just an oft-injured middle reliever isn't all that bad a deal.

That being said, I am very troubled by another data point in an already overwhelming trendline that shows Dayton Moore cares very very little about on-base percentage, despite the lip service.

Hmmm ... Cot's doesn't seem to have updated service times yet but I'm pretty sure that Jacobs is arb-eligible this year. He is the sort of player who tends to get "overpaid" in arb -- not very good but some good counting stats and he's been nearly full-time for 3 seasons now because he's been on lousy teams not because he's good. I don't know that there are any particularly good comps for him, but Adam LaRoche got $3.2 M a couple years back. Brad Hawpe got nearly $4 M. Chad Tracy got $2.75. So I'd guess Jacobs in the 3-3.5 range.

Jeff Francoeur will be another interesting arb-eligible case to watch this offseason.

The "worry" here is that usually you don't trade for a guy entering arb-eligibility unless you intend to keep him for a while. Jacobs is OK as a stop-gap but there should be some concern that Moore might see him as a solution. True, he's movable (with little in return) if Kila and Butler take off and hopefully that's Moore's thinking.

And on the trade itself -- they gave up basically nothing and got back a little something, so that's fine.

I don't think his defense is going to be a huge concern. First base is the least important position to worry about defensively, and he's likely going to DH quite a bit too. And Ross Gload can sub in late in games.

I think it's a bit of a problem if the Royals plan on punting defense at third with Gordon and whenever Guillen plays the outfield.

I think it's a bit of a problem if the Royals plan on punting defense at third with Gordon and whenever Guillen plays the outfield.

I don't think Gordon is quite as bad defensively as the metrics say and Guillen was going to be a defensive problem - Jacobs or not. I'm not seeing how Jacobs makes that better or worse.

And on the trade itself -- they gave up basically nothing and got back a little something, so that's fine.

A lot of people see it the other way around - that a decent relief pitcher with potential to be a starter was the "something" and a 1B who has one of the worst OBP's in MLB is the "nothing". I don't go quite that far, but I think the Royals made a dumb move giving up a commodity they had an excess of (relief pitching) to bolster another one they had even more of (1B/DH).

That being said, I am very troubled by another data point in an already overwhelming trendline that shows Dayton Moore cares very very little about on-base percentage, despite the lip service.

"You are hitting the nail right between the eyes on dat one!"

I don't think Gordon is quite as bad defensively as the metrics say and Guillen was going to be a defensive problem - Jacobs or not. I'm not seeing how Jacobs makes that better or worse.

Can you support that statement on Gordon? The metrics all tell about the same story, whether you take Plus/Minus, RZR, FRAA... fact is, he has below average range and makes a lot of errors.

I think the point here is that, at best, you'll be getting average defense from CF (Dejesus), LF (Teahen), and 2B (German?). Aviles' arm is probably stretched at SS (.856 RZR, 8 throwing errors in just 740 innings). Gordon is below average, although it's fairly debatable whether he is awful or just mediocre. Then you are left with Jacobs (abysmal) and Guillen (useless).

It just seems to be that Dayton Moore has gone out of his way to undermine the best thing the Royals have going for them (pitching) by trotting out a terrible defensive club. Jacobs exarcerbates that problem, both fielding his own position and receiving throws from SS/3B. It just strikes me that all of Moore's moves are made in isolation of one another, with no concerted long-term vision or strategy. How does Mike Jacobs make them any better in the long-run? Seriously? And the Guillen contract? Jose Guillen has always demonstrated that he A) Can't take a walk to save his life and B) Has one of the most abrasive personalities in the sport. Just an awful fit for a young, OBP-starved team.

While I am a Red Sox fan, I live out here in the KC market and it pains me to watch how crappy this team is. Thankfully, Moustakas looks like the real deal... but it's tough to swallow the way they managed Gordon's development and subsequently pissed away the number 1 pick (Hochevar). I'm just not getting it.

a commodity they had an excess of (relief pitching) to bolster another one they had even more of (1B/DH).

I guess it's the latter where we'd disagree. The Royals have Butler. That's it. And of course he hasn't hit yet. Jacobs is not much but he is better than Shealy. Kila should be at AAA next year. I simply don't see how Jacobs blocks any important bits and the only player he takes playing time away from is the inferior Shealy (though admittedly this is close). You start with Jacobs and Butler with Shealy off the bench. If Kila hammers at AAA, you shift some pieces around.

In short, the Royals have an abundance of 1B/DH in the same way the Mets have an abundance of 2B.

OK, I'm being somewhat unfair to Shealy as I don't have any idea what his defense is like -- he might be the equal of Jacobs once that is factored in.

But it's pretty trivial regardless ... unless the Royals are ready to give up on Gordon at 3B. That really starts to create problems if they have to find a position for him, esepcially if the "succeed" in finding a CF and moving DeJesus to LF.

I tend to agree with #16 -- there's no evidence of a plan here. The team is not good defensively or as hitters (in neither OBP nor power). Moore talks about improving offensively, especially OBP, but his "plan" is Jacobs and to find a CF to move DeJesus to LF, a move that would almost certainly make the team worse offensively (as DeJesus' bat is at best average for LF). You could understand DeJesus to LF if that was part of a plan to improve the defense overall but the Jacobs acquisition suggests that's not the case.

And to contradict my earlier point, I'll admit there is a chance the Royals end up with about 8 DHs -- Gordon, Jacobs, Guillen, Butler, Shealy, Kila. OK, that's only 6.

And maybe I just take it all back. Trading for Cody Ross (also about to be arb-eligible) would have made a lot more sense than trading for Jacobs and I don't know that he'd have cost them much more.

I don't think the Marlins are that dumb. Cody Ross is a similar hitter to Jacobs but can play center field. There is an immense gap in the value of the two players.

The trouble is that the entire remainder of the lineup is filled with professional Out-Makers.

The Royals' OBP last year was .320, compared to a park-corrected league average of .332
The Royals' SLG last year was .415, compared to a park-corrected league average of .415

That puts the OBP+ at 96.3, and the SLG+ at 95.6.

It's just not true that the Royals' problem was uniquely OBP-related. They need power just as much as OBP.

And can we get a moratorium on passing off "trade every good player for a prospect in AA, wait five years, and trade the ones that develop all over again" as analysis? It's not helpful, it's not insightful, it doesn't fit what the Royals are trying to do, and it works far less well in real life than it does in a video game.

I agree with Walt. As Casey Stengel said, if you've got three first basemen, you've got no firstbasemen. I'm moderately concerned with blocking Butler, but there is a school of thought that says making Butler work for a job is a side benefit of bringing in some first base competition. On an extremely righty-heavy team, it's not hard to see Jacobs as a useful platoon player.

I will also note that it's Halloween. We're one more rain delay from it still being the World Series. The Royals don't have to field a team until next March. Imbalances at one or two positions aren't that big a deal.

It's just not true that the Royals' problem was uniquely OBP-related. They need power just as much as OBP.

Not if the numbers you posted are correct.

Can you support that statement on Gordon? The metrics all tell about the same story, whether you take Plus/Minus, RZR, FRAA... fact is, he has below average range and makes a lot of errors.

I think the point here is that, at best, you'll be getting average defense from CF (Dejesus), LF (Teahen), and 2B (German?). Aviles' arm is probably stretched at SS (.856 RZR, 8 throwing errors in just 740 innings). Gordon is below average, although it's fairly debatable whether he is awful or just mediocre.

Well obviously all I have to go on Gordon defensively other than metrics is my own observation. And he doesn't strike me as god awful defensively. I don't think he is going to win Gold Gloves, but I'd say he's more mediocre than awful.

The Royals don't have to field a team until next March. Imbalances at one or two positions aren't that big a deal.

I fully expect Billy Butler to get dealt. That could either be a great haul or it could turn out to be a huge disaster. The realist in me says the latter is more likely.

It's just not true that the Royals' problem was uniquely OBP-related. They need power just as much as OBP.

Not if the numbers you posted are correct.

Let's work it out using runs created

RC=(H+BB)*(total bases)/(AB+BB)

So at first glance, you're right: the Royals had 1899 H+BB last year, as compared to 2226 total bases. So each marginal walk yields roughly 22% more runs than each marginal extra base. However, SLG varies on a larger scale. Adjusting OBP to league average yields 731 RC, while adjusting SLG to league average yields 736 RC. As I see it, that's a wash.

I don't think the Marlins are that dumb. Cody Ross is a similar hitter to Jacobs but can play center field. There is an immense gap in the value of the two players.

Well, who knows, and of course Moore may have asked. But there were rumors earlier that the Marlins were looking to trade him, he is arb-eligible I believe, he's been bounced around many organizations and never got real playing time until age 27, he doesn't have the ML track record of Jacobs and a good chunk of his value is in defense which may not be recognized by the Marlins (they certainly don't play it :-). I doubt he's viewed as being very valuable around MLB ... so I'm not sure it would take much more than Nunez. I agree he's more valuable than Jacobs (which is why I suggested him) but are we talking Teahen (OK, too high a salary for the Marlins)? Nunez and Mahay (also too pricey)? Nunez and a lower-level prospect?

That puts the OBP+ at 96.3, and the SLG+ at 95.6.

It's just not true that the Royals' problem was uniquely OBP-related. They need power just as much as OBP.

To be fair to, well, myself, I was contrasting the reasonable production the Royals got (or might expect to get) from Aviles, DeJesus, Gordon and maybe Callaspo with the awful production of Teahen, Guillen, Buck, Gathright, and now Jacobs. The guys who were pretty good brought the team averages up to almost-respectability, but those were either guys who have a short track record and/or may have been playing a little over their heads (Aviles, Callaspo) or guys who've probably peaked (DeJesus). Of that group, only Gordon is likely to significantly improve next year.

The Royals may be looking at the fact that they've inproved from 62 to 69 to 75 wins in the last three seasons, and think that if they can just get a few breaks, they're not far from pulling a Tampa Bay and winning the WC or something. I think they have farther to go than that, but they may not.