Debris Slide!

None of those are really good comps except maybe Maris.

Hafner had three tremendous seasons before 2007 at age 27, 28, 29 (all above 160+). That went to 118, and then 85 this year.

Gentile basically had one great year at age 27 (187), then settled into a solid above average player from 28-31 (around 125)

Barfield's best seasons were at 26 and 27, and were not nearly as good (140s), went down to the 100s at 28 and 29, and had his third best year ever at age 30.

Armas was never in the same category as a hitter, topping out in the 120s.

Wynn at 32 was better than 28-31.

Basically, I think a player with Hafner's level of performance at age 31 completely falling apart is a lot more rare and interesting than Deveney believes. Or maybe there are better comps?

I think the "Old Player's Skills" thing is likely at play here too, and I think several studies (incl. the original Bill James one) have established how badly such players age.

George Foster?

27: 150 OPS+
28: 165 OPS+
29: 151 OPS+
30: 155 OPS+
31: 131 OPS+
32: 150 OPS+
33: 90 OPS+
34: 95 OPS+


Danny Tartabull?

27: 128 OPS+
28: 171 OPS+
29: 152 OPS+
30: 134 OPS+
31: 114 OPS+
32: 89 OPS+

Doesn't Pronk have a shoulder injury ?

I wouldn't give up on him yet.

He also got married before last season. The young man's fancy has turned to thoughts of love.

I had never heard of him before, but Zeke Bonura has a similar career path, albeit not as good:

Bonura didn't make it into the majors until age 25, had a series of All Star calibur seasons, and then out of baseball by age 31.

The Red Sox pitchers dominated Haf' in the ALDS last year. Maybe he was hurt?

Zeke Bonura was most famous for his "Banana Nose"

Photo

I think the "Old Player's Skills" thing is likely at play here too, and I think several studies (incl. the original Bill James one) have established how badly such players age.

How are we defining "old player's skills?" Obviously Hafner has always lacked speed and defensive ability. But he also hit for a high average in his peak seasons and never struck out excessively. Are "old player's skills" simply an ability to hit?

OPS+
Greg Luzinski

1981 30 144
1982 31 130
1983 32 129
1984 33 89

Then out of basball

Boog Powell

1973 31 126
1974 32 125
1975 33 154
1976 34 90
1977 35 83

I agree with #4, that Foster is a good comp for cliffing suddenly, but another is good ol' Dale Murphy

age--OPS+

27--149
28--149
29--152
30--121
31--157
32--106
33--89
34--99

Cf. also Juan Gonzalez, Glenn Davis, Joe Medwick. Power hitters losing it at or shortly after 30 are not in short supply. Injuries often factor in, which may also be the case with Hafner, as no neck observes ...

That's why I favor the use of steroids.

That's why I favor the use of steroids.

what--so players can stop taking them and suddenly decline?

No, so that more players can stay healthy and productive into their late 30s. The sport is obviously better off that way.

Based on this approach, it would seem we should expect a fall off for other guys as they start to hit the ripe old age of 32, now that there's no steroids to keep them going....
Guys to watch for:
Teixeira, Ortiz, Dunn, Beltran, Utley?

These guys are all about 30, give or take a year.
It wouldn't shock me for any of these guys to start taking a turn for the worse, but Ortiz and Dunn seem the most likely to me as they are both the cursed one-tool player.

No, so that more players can stay healthy and productive into their late 30s. The sport is obviously better off that way.

Don't you hate pants offense?

Injuries should be factored.

Pitchers apparently can be helped to stay healthy by means of steroids, as well.

It wouldn't shock me for any of these guys to start taking a turn for the worse, but Ortiz and Dunn seem the most likely to me as they are both the cursed one-tool player.

They also weigh a combined 900 pounds.

No, so that more players can stay healthy and productive into their late 30s. The sport is obviously better off that way.

This is impossibly stupid. So stupid it must be satire.

Guys to watch for:
Teixeira, Ortiz, Dunn, Beltran, Utley?

I wouldn't be shocked by Teixeira, Ortiz, or Dunn, but I'd be very surprised if Beltran or Utley fell off a cliff. Both Beltran and Utley have great tools and are very complete players. Beltran's the more likely of the two, imho, because of his penchant for getting hurt and the fact that it'll be increasingly harder to come all the way back from those injuries as he moves deeper into his 30's.

Yeah, Beltran & Utley are athletes, not "old player skills" types.

But Utley is a 2B and they just don't age well. He could be the next Kent or Morgan ... but even both of those saw subastantial declines around ages 33-34. Or he could be Sandberg. Still, I'd agree he's an odd name to see in that list.

But I like Utley's chances well enough. Unlike a lot of recent "surprises", his on-contact numbers aren't historic -- about 370/650 for his career. The 370 is high but not unbelievable. His big year last year was 400/680 which is probably a standard 'small fluke' year for such a hitter. This year, it's the power that's spiking -- 368/764 -- so I'd expect that to come back to his career norms from this point (which they roughly did in May). The important thing is, I don't see any warning flags suggesting he can't maintain his career production (with age declines eventually of course).

Also there's the important point that he's "only" 29 and we're talking about a decline 4-5 years from now.

i've found a big part of longevity can be predicted by how good a player was pre-peak. I think it was either James or Silver who found that hall-of-fame players tend to have a less dramatic peak because they're able to be star players at ages like 22-25 and 31-35. Players like Hafner, who aren't stars pre-peak will seem to fall off a cliff when they return to non-peak form.

But Utley is a 2B and they just don't age well. H

He's also a late bloomer...
and I read a study a few years ago that they age poorly too... (which is not what I would have expected)

What seemed stranger to me the last 10-15 years, than even then multiple 60+ homer seasons) was how many players not only stayed productive into their 30s, but even improved- it was like the aging curve that had been established for some many years was now out of whack, not that the curve itself was gone, but there were many more individual outliers... training, nutrition, peds????

Then again as a Met fan I always saw signig or trading for a 30 year old as Russian Roulette, and I was always annoyed when other teams got away with it, and the Mets got Roberto Alomar...

20 years ago someone like Delgado would be regarded as toast, so much so he'd already be benched and potential replacements would be getting tried, but now? People think, gee, maybe he'll right the ship and start hitting again for a few years (he's 36 now), and given how some other hitters have aged recently that's not an insane hope, but in the past it would have been, slow lumbering 1Bs who drop 50-75 OPS+ points form ages 33-36 are historically DONE.

Ortiz and Dunn seem the most likely to me as they are both the cursed one-tool player.

What would be Ortiz's one tool? Unless you're defining "hitting" in general as just one tool. Just last year he hit .332, hit 35 HRs, and drew 111 walks.

Ortiz seems to have stayed relatively healthy. I know he has some knee issues, but even a knee seems less destructive to your ablity to hit than a shoulder. A shoulder is basic to a swing.

[Utley]'s also a late bloomer...
and I read a study a few years ago that they age poorly too... (which is not what I would have expected)

Of course whether Utley was really a late bloomer or the Phils were morons is an open question. :-)

I'm not surprised to find such guys falling off early though, at least as a group. For many of them it means they were only good enough for the majors at their peak. Many of those were probably pretty fringe players anyway. Of the late bloomers who came up and played really well, generally there was some substantial "flaw" in their game that kept them down in the minors -- too many Ks, crappy defense, etc. So even there, it may well be that it's only at their peak as a hitter that they have enough offensive value to overcome those flaws.

But I doubt we'd find many late bloomers with the sort of all-around game that Utley has and it wouldn't surprise me if they hung on pretty well. However, Utley's also a 2B and those guys just don't seem to age well. So he's definitely got a couple things that we would expect to work against him aging well.

His B-R comps are pretty much useless. ZiPS was nice enough to mention that his top two comps (based on recent performance) are Charlie Gehringer and Lou Whitaker. Neither of those was a late bloomer but both aged pretty well.

Biggio is an interesting comp. Biggio came up young but wasn't shifted to 2B until 26. The next season he started on a run of seasons with a high average and nice power. Alas he too saw a pretty big drop in production (relative to league) starting at 33.

Guys to watch for:
Teixeira, Ortiz, Dunn, Beltran, Utley?

These guys are all about 30, give or take a year.

Teixeira turned 28 last month.

I had never heard of him before, but Zeke Bonura has a similar career path, albeit not as good:

Bonura didn't make it into the majors until age 25, had a series of All Star calibur seasons, and then out of baseball by age 31.

He was also, by reputation, a historically bad fielding first baseman, which in those pre-DH days, may have hurt him. I don't know what modern metrics reveal about his defense.

A little digging on the Internet reveals that after his poor 1940 season, he played for Minneapolis in the American Association in 1941, but was also drafted in 1941, and spent much of that year in the Army. He was recalled into the Army after Pearl Harbor, and spent the entire 1942-45 seasons in the service.

It's possible that, without the war, he would have worked his back the majors, and had a longer career.